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The 2020 decennial census provides new insights into the demography of same-sex households and can shed light on ongoing debates in urban and gayborhood studies. Although the U.S. Census gives a vast undercount of the LGBTQ population, it is still the largest source of nationally representative data on same-sex households and is accessible over three time points (2000, 2010, 2020). In this research note, we use 2020 census data to examine the residential patterns of same-sex households down to the neighborhood level. By employing the index of dissimilarity, we present results for the 100 largest U.S. cities and 100 largest metropolitan areas that demonstrate moderate yet persistent segregation. In a continuation of prior trends, male same-sex households remain more segregated from different-sex households than do female same-sex households. We find moderate levels of within-group segregation by gender and marital status—representing new demographic trends. Finally, metropolitan areas have a higher dissimilarity index than cities, revealing greater levels of segregation when factoring in suburban areas. We discuss these trends in light of debates regarding the spatial organization of sexuality in residential contexts and outline future avenues for research utilizing recently released 2020 census data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research note examines historical trends in lifespan inequality and the intergenerational transmission of lifespan and longevity in the United States over the eighteenth, nineteenth, and twentieth centuries. We contribute to the literature by expanding the estimates of the familial component beyond parent–child associations to include multigenerational and horizontal classes of relatives of different sexes. We also examine how lifespan inequality and the role of the family in lifespan and longevity changed over time. We address the challenge of studying extended family networks in historical times by leveraging recent online crowdsourced genealogical data. Results confirm the presence of a familial component for all classes of relatives considered and highlight a stronger association for horizontal than for vertical relationships. Despite decreasing lifespan inequality, we find no evidence of decreased familial lifespan stratification throughout history. If anything, the results suggest a strengthening of the parent–child association. Finally, the results contribute to the debate on the representativeness and usability of crowdsourced genealogical data by emphasizing the importance of sample selection based on the quality of the information collected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many claim a high prevalence of single motherhood plays a significant role in America's high child poverty. Using the Luxembourg Income Study, we compare the "prevalences and penalties" for child poverty across 30 rich democracies and within the United States over time (1979–2019). Several descriptive patterns contradict the importance of single motherhood. The U.S. prevalence of single motherhood is cross-nationally moderate and typical and is historically stable. Also, child poverty and the prevalence of single motherhood have trended in opposite directions in recent decades in the United States. More important than the prevalence of single motherhood, the United States stands out for having the highest penalty across 30 rich democracies. Counterfactual simulations demonstrate that reducing single motherhood would not substantially reduce child poverty. Even if there was zero single motherhood, (1) the United States would not change from having the fourth-highest child poverty rate, (2) the 41-year trend in child poverty would be very similar, and (3) the extreme racial inequalities in child poverty would not decline. Rather than the prevalence of single motherhood, the high penalty for single motherhood and extremely high Black and Latino child poverty rates, which exist regardless of single motherhood, are far more important to America's high child poverty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Diverging mortality trends at different ages motivate the monitoring of lifespan inequality alongside life expectancy. Conclusions are ambiguous when life expectancy and lifespan inequality move in the same direction or when inequality measures display inconsistent trends. We propose using nonparametric dominance analysis to obtain a robust ranking of age-at-death distributions. Application to U.S. period life tables for 2006–2021 reveals that, until 2014, more recent years generally dominate earlier years, implying improvement if longer lifespans that are less unequally distributed are considered better. Improvements were more pronounced for non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic individuals than for non-Hispanic White individuals. Since 2014, for all subpopulations—particularly Hispanics—earlier years often dominate more recent years, indicating worsening age-at-death distributions if shorter and more unequal lifespans are considered worse. Dramatic deterioration of the distributions in 2020–2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic is most evident for Hispanic individuals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The introduction of unilateral divorce legislation (UDL) starting in the late 1960s led to spikes in U.S. divorce rates. We ask whether making divorce easier affected the educational structure of marriage. Using marriage and divorce certificate data covering 1970–1988, we provide new evidence on the evolution of the educational structure of marriage inflows (newlyweds) and outflows (divorces). Next, we leverage the timing of UDL introduction across states to estimate its effects on both flows. We find that UDL affected the educational structure of divorce but not of new marriages: it made generally unstable hypogamous couples (women married to less educated partners) less likely to divorce and made homogamous couples more stable than hypergamous ones (women married to more educated partners). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Access to safe and stable housing is important for child and adult well-being. Yet many low-income households face severe challenges in maintaining stable housing. In this article, we examine the impact of the 2021 temporary expansion to the Child Tax Credit (CTC) on housing affordability and the living arrangements of families with low incomes. We employ a parameterized difference-in-differences method and leverage national data from a sample of parents who are receiving or recently received Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits (N = ∼20,500), many of whom became newly eligible for the CTC. We find that the monthly CTC reduced parents' past-due rent/mortgages (both amounts and incidence) and their reports of potential moves due to difficulties affording rent/mortgages. The CTC increased the likelihood that parents reported a change in their living arrangements and reduced their household size, both effects driven by fewer mothers living with a partner (and not a reduction in doubling up). We find some differences in effects by race and ethnicity and earnings. Our findings illustrate that the monthly credit improved low-income parents' ability to afford housing, gain residential independence from partners, and reduce the number of people residing in their household. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Population aging is an important and increasingly relevant area of study for demographers. A growing body of research seeks to determine how long-term changes in births, mortality, and migration—the three drivers of any demographic process—have shaped the present aging situation. Using variable-r decomposition and cohort data, this research note presents a formula for the change in the old-age dependency ratio to determine the extent to which relative changes in births, as well as in mortality and migration rates, contribute to aging. This perspective provides a careful and in-depth picture of aging and contributes to the debate concerning whether changes in births or mortality have had the strongest effect on population aging. When applied to Australia, the United States, and several European populations, the decomposition of the old-age dependency ratio shows that aging occurred in all populations and that changes in both births and mortality contributed to this aging. Analysis of these populations demonstrates that although they differed regarding which of these factors contributed more, changes in births prevailed as the more significant factor. In nearly all populations, migration decreased the rate of population aging. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Greater educational attainment is generally associated with healthier and longer lives. However, important heterogeneity in who benefits from educational attainment, how much, and why remains underexplored. In particular, in the United States, the physical health returns to educational attainment are not as large for minoritized racial and ethnic groups compared with individuals racialized as White. Yet, our current understanding of ethnoracial differences in educational health disparities is limited by an almost exclusive focus on the quantity of education attained without sufficient attention to heterogeneity within educational attainment categories, such as different institution types among college graduates. Using biomarker data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health), we test whether the physical health of college graduates in early adulthood (aged 24–32) varies by institution type and for White, Black, and Hispanic adults. In considering the role of the college context, we conceptualize postsecondary institutions as horizontally stratified and racialized institutional spaces with different implications for the health of their graduates. Finally, we quantify the role of differential attendance at and returns to postsecondary institution type in shaping ethnoracialized health disparities among college graduates in early adulthood. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this research note, we describe the results of the first validation study of the U.S. Census Bureau's new Community Resilience Estimates (CRE), which uses Census microdata to develop a tract-level vulnerability index for the United States. By employing administrative microdata to link Social Security Administration mortality records to CRE, we show that CRE quartiles provide more stable predictions of COVID-19 excess deaths than single demographic categorizations such as race or age, as well as other vulnerability measures including the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index (NRI). We also use machine learning techniques to show that CRE provides more predictive power of COVID-19 excess deaths than standard socioeconomic predictors of vulnerability such as poverty and unemployment, as well as SVI and NRI. We find that a 10-percentage-point increase in a key CRE risk measure is associated with one additional death per neighborhood during the initial outbreak of COVID-19 in the United States. We conclude that, compared with alternative measures, CRE provides a more accurate predictor of community vulnerability to a disaster such as a pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We evaluate the performance of a widely used technique for imputing the legal immigration status of U.S. immigrants in survey data—the logical imputation method. We validate this technique by implementing it in a nationally representative survey of U.S. farmworkers that includes a well-regarded measure of legal status. When using this measure as a benchmark, the imputation algorithm correctly identifies the legal status of 78% of farmworkers. Of all the variables included in the algorithm, we find that Medicaid participation poses the greatest challenge for accuracy. Using the American Community Survey, we show that increased Medicaid enrollments stemming from the implementation of the Affordable Care Act in 2014 led to sizable changes in the share of immigrants imputed as legal over time and across space. We explore the implications of these changes for two previous studies and conclude that including Medicaid criteria in the imputation algorithm can significantly impact research findings. We also provide tools to gauge the sensitivity of results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluates the extent to which metropolitan racial segregation occurs between neighborhoods—from tract to tract—and within neighborhoods—from block to block—and is framed theoretically by Putnam's (2007) "hunkering down" hypothesis. Analyses are based on complete-count block, tract, and metropolitan data from the last four U.S. decennial censuses. We document recent patterns of block-to-block segregation between Whites and racial and ethnic minorities (Blacks, Asians, and Hispanics) and between different minority pairs. For example, roughly 40% of all metro Black–White segregation is due to segregation from block to block within neighborhoods. Among Asians, the between-neighborhood component of metropolitan segregation has increased over time but was largely compensated by declines in the within-neighborhood (or block) component. Metropolitan fixed-effects models show that trends and racial and ethnic differences in segregation—overall and within and between neighborhoods—are broadly observed across metro areas but are most evident in the largest, oldest, and most highly segregated metro areas. The results are robust to alternative estimates that adjust for differential privacy, metropolitan reclassification, and neighborhood boundary changes. Analyses of neighborhood change in Atlanta, Georgia, further reinforce the generality of our multiscale approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A central premise of the first demographic transition theory is that demographic change would occur more slowly in rural than urban areas. Few studies, however, have investigated whether rural areas remain holdouts during the second demographic transition. To address this gap, this study (1) examines trends among rural and urban families in Canada and the United States over a 30-year period and (2) determines whether compositional differences in demographic, socioeconomic, and religious factors explain current differences between rural and urban families. We find that rural Canadian women continue to have, on average, 0.6 more children than urban women. However, rural families do not trail behind urban families on any other indicator of family change. In fact, rural women in both countries are now significantly more likely to cohabit and roughly 10 percentage points more likely to have children outside of marriage than urban women. These differences are largely explained by lower levels of education and income among rural American women and fewer immigrants in rural Canada. Examining family change through a rural–urban lens fills important empirical gaps and yields novel insights into current debates on the fundamental causes of ongoing family change in high-income countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fertility is a life course process that is strongly shaped by geographic and sociodemographic subgroup contexts. In the United States, scholars face a choice: they can situate fertility in a life course perspective using panel data, which is typically representative only at the national level; or they can attend to subnational contexts using rate schedules, which do not include information on life course statuses. The method and data source we introduce here, Census-Held Linked Administrative Records for Fertility Estimation (CLAR-FE), permits both. It derives fertility histories and rate schedules from U.S. Census Bureau–held data for the nation and by state, racial and ethnic subgroups, and the important life course status of parity. We generate three types of rates for 2000–2020 at the national and state levels by race and ethnicity: age-specific rates and both unconditional and conditional parity- and age-specific rates. Where possible, we compare these rates with those produced by the National Center for Health Statistics. Our new rate schedules illuminate state and racial and ethnic differences in transitions to parenthood, providing evidence of the important subgroup heterogeneity that characterizes the United States. CLAR-FE covers nearly the entire U.S. population and is available to researchers on approved projects through the Census Bureau's Federal Statistical Research Data Centers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I document the transmission of a grandfather's net nutritional deprivation and psychosocial stress in young adulthood across multiple generations using the grandfather's ex-prisoner of war (ex-POW) status in the U.S. Civil War (1861–1865). Using a newly created dataset, I uncover an association between a grandfather's ex-POW status and the longevity after age 45 of his sons and male-line grandsons but not of his daughters, granddaughters, female-line grandsons, children-in-law, or grandchildren-in-law. Male-line grandsons lost roughly a year of life at age 45 (4% of remaining life expectancy) if descended from ex-POWs who suffered severe captivity conditions than if descended from non-POWs. If their grandfathers faced a less harsh captivity, male-line grandsons lost less than a year of life compared with those descended from non-POWs. I find that the grandfather's age at exposure and the grandson's education, as well as the son's and the grandson's poor late gestational conditions (proxied by season of birth), mediate this relationship. I rule out socioeconomic status, marriage and mortality selection, and cultural or psychological transmission from grandfathers to grandsons as explanations. I cannot rule out an epigenetic explanation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Originally developed for estimating healthy life expectancy, the traditional Sullivan method continues to be a popular tool for obtaining point-in-time estimates of the population impacts of a wide range of health and social conditions. However, except in rare data-intensive cases, the method is subject to stringent stationarity assumptions, which often do not align with real-world conditions and restrict its resulting estimates and applications. In this research note, we present an expansion of the original method to apply within a population projection framework. The Sullivan method projection framework produces estimates that offer new insights about future trends in population health and social arrangements under various demographic and epidemiologic scenarios, such as the percentage of life years that population members can expect to spend with a condition of interest in a time interval under different assumptions. We demonstrate the utility of this framework using the case of long COVID, illustrating both its operation and potential to reveal insights about emergent population health challenges under various theoretically informed scenarios. The traditional Sullivan method provides a summary measure of the present, while its incorporation into a projection framework enables preparation for a variety of potential futures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent scholarship indicates that sexual minority adults have higher caregiving rates than heterosexuals and that women are more likely to be caregivers than men. However, little research has addressed how gender and sexuality intersect in shaping caregiving status. This study uses data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and aggregates a probability-based sample of adults living in 36 U.S. states between 2015 and 2021. We examine who provides care among adult heterosexual, lesbian, gay, and bisexual men and women. Results reveal that women are more likely to be caregivers than men, but only among heterosexuals. We find little variation in caregiving by sexuality among women, but bisexual men are more likely than heterosexual men to be caregivers; the latter result appears to be driven by unpartnered, bisexual men. Lastly, we contextualize caregivers' experiences and reveal selected descriptive differences in patterns of care recipient--caregiver relationships across gender and sexual identity groups. Our findings advance understanding of caregiving and changing family ties in an era of population aging and increasing diversity in sexual identities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Intensive agriculture and deep plowing caused topsoil erosion and dust storms during the 1930s, affecting agricultural income and land values for years. Given the growing literature on the relevance of in utero and early-life exposures, it is surprising that studies focusing on links between the Dust Bowl and later-life health have produced inconclusive and mixed results. We reevaluate this literature and study the long-term effects of in utero and early-life exposure to topsoil erosion caused by the 1930s Dust Bowl on old-age longevity. Specifically, using Social Security Administration death records linked with the full-count 1940 census, we conduct event studies with difference-in-differences designs to compare the longevity of individuals in high- versus low-topsoil-erosion counties before versus after 1930. We find intent-to-treat reductions in longevity of approximately 0.85 months for those born in high-erosion counties after 1930. We show that these effects are not an artifact of preexisting trends in longevity. Additional analyses suggest that the effects are more pronounced among children raised in farm households, females, and those whose mothers had lower education. We also provide suggestive evidence that reductions in adulthood income are a likely mechanism for the effects we document. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The measurement of sexual and gender identity in the United States has been evolving to generate more precise demographic estimates of the population and a better understanding of health and well-being. Younger cohorts of sexual- and gender-diverse adults are endorsing identities outside of the lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) labels. Current population-level surveys often include a category such as "something else" without providing further details, and doing so inadequately captures these diverse identities. In this research note, our analysis of the most recent federal data source to incorporate sexual and gender identity measures-the Household Pulse Survey-reveals that younger birth cohorts are more likely to select "something else" for their sexual identity and "none of these" for their gender identity. The observed sexual and gender identity response patterns across birth cohorts underscore the importance of developing and applying new strategies to directly measure sexual- and gender-diverse adults who identify with identities outside of those explicitly captured on surveys. The integration of sexual and gender identity measures in population-level surveys carries broader implications for civil rights and for addressing health inequities and therefore must be responsive to cohort differences in identification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]