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With the increasing severity of global warming, the goal of carbon sequestration and emission reduction in various industries has become an important responsibility for sustainable development. As an important part of carbon sink, the improvement of net carbon efficiency in the plantations industry will make a great contribution to the realization of the "double carbon" target in agriculture. However, there are large spatial and temporal differences in the net carbon efficiency of the plantations sector in various provinces, and there is still a large scope for increasing carbon sink and reducing carbon emission. In this paper, we have analyzed spatial and temporal trends in the net carbon sink efficiency of the plantations' production processes in 31 provinces in China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) from 2000 to 2020. On this basis, we have analyzed the influencing factors of net carbon efficiency in the plantations' production process through an extended Kaya constant equation. Through the geographically and temporally weighted regression model, we explore the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of the influencing factors, and further analyze the driving and restraining factors of net carbon efficiency in plantations' production process, in order to propose appropriate countermeasures. The study shows that: (1) The net carbon efficiency of plantations sector in China increase between 2000 and 2020, and the development of net carbon efficiency is uneven across regions. (2) The geographic center of net carbon efficiency of China's plantations industry shift from the northeast to the southwest and is consistent with the migration direction of agricultural inputs. (3) The influencing factors of net carbon efficiency in the plantations sector show large regional differences, and can be specifically divided into four major types of zones. In this regard, this paper provides more appropriate countermeasure suggestions for increasing carbon sink and reducing carbon emission in each zone, with a view to achieving the goal of double carbon in agriculture with practical significance. • Net carbon efficiency is a new objective indicator to measure the carbon sink level of cropland. • Cultivated land carbon sink capacity is closely related to agricultural inputs. • Regional differences in the factors influencing net carbon efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the relationship between land-use patterns and regional carbon storage, as well as predicting future land-use changes for regional carbon sink and emission management, are of immense significance. This study utilized land-use data from 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, as well as the InVEST model, to evaluate the spatiotemporal evolution of carbon storage in the Sanjiangyuan area over the past three decades. Furthermore, predictions for carbon storage in 2035 were presented using the PLUS model. The findings revealed the following key results: (1) the land types in the Sanjiangyuan area are mainly low cover grassland, medium cover grassland and unused land, among which unused land decreased significantly from 1990 to 2020, and the area of low cover grassland and wetland increased, which is the main reason for the increase of carbon storage. (2) Climatic-environmental and social-economic factors jointly influenced the land-use change in the Sanjiangyuan area. Except for the three types of grassland, the expansion of other land types was mainly influenced by climatic and environmental factors. (3) During 1990–2020, carbon storage in the source region of Sanjiangyuan area showed an overall upward trend, with a total increase of 39.97 × 107 t, and land-use change had a positive potential impact on carbon storage as a whole. (4) Under the natural change scenario, both carbon storage and regional carbon density increased in the simulation of 2035, and the potential impact of land-use change on carbon storage is positive. On this basis, the paper puts some suggestions forward to improve the carbon storage capacity of the Sanjiangyuan area in the future. This study provides valuable scientific insights for land-use management decision-making and promotes sustainable development of carbon storage functions in this region. • Total carbon storage increased between 1990 and 2020. • The simulation predicts higher carbon storage in 2035 than in 2020. • Ecological protection policies have a crucial contribution to improving carbon storage. • Regulating regional Socioeconomic activities is an effective measure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]