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This paper presents a methodology to detect the coastal erosion and progradation effects in the 'Atrato River' delta, located in the Gulf of Urabá in Colombia, using SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) images. Erosion is the physical–mechanical loss of the soil that affects its functions and ecosystem services while producing a reduction in its productive capacity. Progradation is the deposition of layers in the basinward direction while moving coastward. Other studies have investigated these two phenomena using optical images, encountering difficulties due to the persistent presence of clouds in this region. In order to avoid the cloud effects, in this study, we used 16 Sentinel 1 SAR images with two different polarizations between 2016 and 2023. First, each image was rescaled from 0 to 255, then the image was despeckled by a deep learning (DL) model. Afterwards, a single RGB image was composed with the filtered polarizations. Next, a classifier with 99% accuracy based on Otsu's method was used to determine whether each pixel was water or not. Then, the classified image was registered to a reference one using Oriented FAST and Rotated BRIEF (ORB) descriptor. Finally, a multitemporal analysis was performed by comparing every image to the previous one to identify the studied phenomena, calculating areas. Also, all images were integrated to obtain a heatmap that showed the overall changes across eight years (2016–2023) in a single image. The multitemporal analysis performed found that the newly created mouth is the most active area for these processes, coinciding with other studies. In addition, a comparison of these findings with the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) showed a relative delayed coupling to the erosion process and a coupling of progradation with dry and wet seasons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate forecasting remains a challenge, even with advanced techniques like deep learning (DL), ARIMA, and Holt–Winters (H&W), particularly for chaotic phenomena such as those observed in several areas, such as COVID-19, energy, and financial time series. Addressing this, we introduce a Forecasting Method with Filters and Residual Analysis (FMFRA), a hybrid methodology specifically applied to datasets of COVID-19 time series, which we selected for their complexity and exemplification of current forecasting challenges. FMFFRA consists of the following two approaches: FMFRA-DL, employing deep learning, and FMFRA-SSA, using singular spectrum analysis. This proposed method applies the following three phases: filtering, forecasting, and residual analysis. Initially, each time series is split into filtered and residual components. The second phase involves a simple fine-tuning for the filtered time series, while the third phase refines the forecasts and mitigates noise. FMFRA-DL is adept at forecasting complex series by distinguishing primary trends from insufficient relevant information. FMFRA-SSA is effective in data-scarce scenarios, enhancing forecasts through automated parameter search and residual analysis. Chosen for their geographical and substantial populations and chaotic dynamics, time series for Mexico, the United States, Colombia, and Brazil permitted a comparative perspective. FMFRA demonstrates its efficacy by improving the common forecasting performance measures of MAPE by 22.91%, DA by 13.19%, and RMSE by 25.24% compared to the second-best method, showcasing its potential for providing essential insights into various rapidly evolving domains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]