13 results
Search Results
2. A comparison of centrality measures and their role in controlling the spread in epidemic networks.
- Author
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Dudkina, Ekaterina, Bin, Michelangelo, Breen, Jane, Crisostomi, Emanuele, Ferraro, Pietro, Kirkland, Steve, Mareček, Jakub, Murray-Smith, Roderick, Parisini, Thomas, Stone, Lewi, Yilmaz, Serife, and Shorten, Robert
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SCIENTIFIC community ,WEIGHTED graphs ,INFECTIOUS disease transmission ,EPIDEMICS ,COVID-19 pandemic ,AGRICULTURAL extension work - Abstract
The ranking of nodes in a network according to their centrality or ''importance'' is a classic problem that has attracted the interest of different scientific communities in the last decades. The COVID-19 pandemic has recently rejuvenated the interest in this problem, as the ranking may be used to decide who should be tested, or vaccinated, first, in a population of asymptomatic individuals. In this paper, we review classic methods for node ranking and compare their performance in a benchmark network that considers the community-based structure of society. The outcome of the ranking procedure is then used to decide which individuals should be tested, and possibly quarantined, first. Finally, we also review the extension of these ranking methods to weighted graphs and explore the importance of weights in a contact network by providing a toy model and comparing node rankings for this case in the context of disease spread. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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3. Phase portraits of an SIR epidemic model.
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Llibre, Jaume and Salhi, Tayeb
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EPIDEMICS ,LIMIT cycles ,HOPF bifurcations ,EQUILIBRIUM - Abstract
In this paper, we classify the phase portraits of an SIR epidemic dynamics model. Depending on the values of the parameters, this model can exhibit seven different phase portraits. In particular, from a biological point of view we prove that the unique attractors of this model are one or two equilibrium points depending on the values of the parameters and from the phase portraits follow the basins of attraction of these equilibria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
- Full Text
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4. Mathematical analysis of a novel fractional order vaccination model for Tuberculosis incorporating susceptible class with underlying ailment.
- Author
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El-Mesady, A., Peter, Olumuyiwa James, Omame, Andrew, and Oguntolu, Festus Abiodun
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TUBERCULOSIS , *EXTRAPULMONARY tuberculosis , *AIRBORNE infection , *TUBERCULOSIS vaccines , *MATHEMATICAL analysis , *MYCOBACTERIUM tuberculosis - Abstract
Tuberculosis (TB) is a communicable, airborne infection caused by the bacillus Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) is the most common presentation, although infection can spread anywhere to cause extra-pulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB). In this paper, a novel fractional order mathematical model is designed for the transmission dynamics of tuberculosis. Uninfected vulnerable individuals are categorized into the following: susceptible with underline ailment and susceptible without underline ailment. The research seeks to qualitatively and quantitatively analyze the proposed model and suggests comprehensive intervention measures for the control of tuberculosis among individuals with underline ailment. Some of the major highlights from the numerical investigation points out that TB vaccination is key to reducing the spread of TB among individuals with underline ailment. Furthermore, efforts to step down the spread of TB through awareness campaigns could significantly reduce the burden of the disease among individuals with co-morbidity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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5. Qingdai weisheng fangyi jizhi jiqi jindai yanbian 清代衛生防疫機制及其近代演變 (修訂版) (The Public Health and Epidemic Prevention Mechanisms in Qing Dynasty and Their Evolution in Modern China (revised edition)): Yu Xinzhong 余新忠 Beijing: Beijing Normal University Press, 2023, 643 pp. Hardcover. RMB: 128. ISBN: 9787303289318
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Linghui, Ji
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QING dynasty, China, 1644-1912 ,EPIDEMICS ,PUBLIC health ,COVID-19 pandemic ,CONSCIOUSNESS raising ,HYGIENE - Abstract
The book "Qingdai weisheng fangyi jizhi jiqi jindai yanbian" by Yu Xinzhong explores the public health and epidemic prevention mechanisms in the Qing Dynasty and their evolution in modern China. The revised edition of the book aims to correct errors and omissions from the first edition and includes new papers. The book covers various topics such as the concept of health, the regulation of health, urban water environment, fecal treatment, cleanliness, quarantine systems, and the formation of health and epidemic prevention. The author also discusses the relationship between Chinese people and health, reflecting on the modernization narrative and the need for more reflection on modernity. However, the book has some limitations, including a focus on the late Qing Dynasty, a lack of in-depth discussion on preventive mechanisms, and repetition of historical materials. Overall, the book is a significant contribution to the study of health history and provides interesting insights into historical issues. [Extracted from the article]
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- 2024
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6. Epidemic change-point detection in general integer-valued time series.
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Diop, Mamadou Lamine and Kengne, William
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CHANGE-point problems , *TIME series analysis , *ASYMPTOTIC normality , *EPIDEMICS , *NULL hypothesis - Abstract
In this paper, we consider the structural change in a class of discrete valued time series, where the true conditional distribution of the observations is assumed to be unknown. The conditional mean of the process depends on a parameter $ \theta ^* $ θ ∗ which may change over time. We provide sufficient conditions for the consistency and the asymptotic normality of the Poisson quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) of the model. We consider an epidemic change-point detection and propose a test statistic based on the QMLE of the parameter. Under the null hypothesis of a constant parameter (no change), the test statistic converges to a distribution obtained from increments of a Browninan bridge. The test statistic diverges to infinity under the epidemic alternative, which establishes that the proposed procedure is consistent in power. The effectiveness of the proposed procedure is illustrated by simulated and real data examples. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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7. The Job Retention Scheme in Slovakia: Impact on Dismissals and Firm Survival in the COVID-19 Pandemic.
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Bělín, Matěj and Veselkova, Marcela
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COVID-19 pandemic ,SMALL business ,DISMISSAL of executives ,BUSINESS enterprises ,LABOR economics ,EPIDEMICS - Abstract
This paper evaluates the impact of the Slovak job retention scheme introduced in 2020 on dismissals and survival of small firms during the COVID-19 pandemic. We exploit exogenous variation in epidemic intensity, measured as new COVID-19 cases within a district per month. We show that the sensitivity of dismissals to the intensifying epidemic among unsupported firms was low, i.e. these firms were relatively unaffected by the shock. In contrast, participation in the job retention scheme reduced the sensitivity of firm dismissals to the intensification of the epidemic, preserving endangered jobs. Supported firms benefited by roughly the same amount, regardless of their management quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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8. Exploring the Impact of Bereavement During the COVID-19 Pandemic on Children and Young People: A Scoping Review.
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Blackburn, Joanna, Waring, Gill, Turner, Mary, Currell, Karen, and Caress, Ann-Louise
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PSYCHOLOGY information storage & retrieval systems , *CINAHL database , *ONLINE information services , *GRIEF , *FRIENDSHIP , *SOCIAL support , *SYSTEMATIC reviews , *SOCIAL isolation , *EPIDEMICS , *SCHOOLS , *PEDIATRIC nursing , *DESCRIPTIVE statistics , *RESEARCH funding , *LITERATURE reviews , *MEDLINE , *BEREAVEMENT , *COVID-19 pandemic , *CHILDREN , *ADOLESCENCE - Abstract
Experiencing bereavement as a child or young person (CYP) can have long-lasting effects. The societal and environmental burdens of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic exacerbated the experience of loss and grief for many CYP, who were unable to access their usual the support networks. However, it is still unclear what is currently known and not known about the experiences of CYP bereaved during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. This review used the framework of Arksey and O'Malley and included five stages: (1) identifying the research question; (2) identifying relevant studies; (3) study selection; (4) charting the data; (5) collating, summarizing, and reporting the results. The methodological quality of the included studies was also assessed using the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme tool. The PRISMA framework was used for reporting the results. The electronic databases Medline, PsychINFO, CINAHL, and PubMed were searched for relevant articles. A total of three papers meeting the inclusion criteria were included in this review and two main themes identified: (1) support (which included sub-themes; social isolation and the impact on support; support from family and friends; wider support networks); (2) Emotional impact of bereavement during a pandemic. Access to support networks is crucial for CYP to understand and process their emotions relating to their bereavement experience. The pandemic meant that many usual support networks such as family and friends were inaccessible to CYP, who struggled to deal with their experience of grief during this time. Schools are a valuable support mechanism and can help CYP understand their emotions through open discussions about their bereavement. The limited empirical evidence currently available in this area of research demonstrates an important need to further understanding of the long-term impacts of dealing with pandemic-related loss in childhood [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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9. "I want to be good:" morality, faith, and female spectatorial pleasure during World War I.
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Anselmo, Diana W.
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ETHICS ,WORLD War I ,SCRAPBOOKS ,EPIDEMICS ,FILM reviewing - Abstract
In this article, I draw on a handful of personal fan collections created in the first decade of the star system to examine how schoolgirls of faith engaged Hollywood cinema as a visual vernacular that helped them externalize 'extreme states of personal being', including grief, disgust, and arousal. Working through what I term 'a cinephilia steeped in the distrust of pleasure', I argue that some moviegoing girls turned to private scrapbooking and film reviewing to sort out embattled feelings arising while coming of age in the United States at a time of social upheaval, war, and epidemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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10. Emergency medical service planning considering dynamic and stochastic demands of infected and non-infected patients during epidemics.
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Li Luo, Yikun Wang, Peng Jiang, Maolin Zhuo, and Qingyi Wang
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EMERGENCY medical services ,EPIDEMICS ,HEALTH facilities ,STOCHASTIC programming ,HIV-positive persons ,COVID-19 pandemic - Abstract
During a large-scale epidemic, a local healthcare system can be overwhelmed by a large number of infected and non-infected patients. To serve the infected and non-infected patients well with limited medical resources, effective emergency medical service planning should be conducted before the epidemic. In this study, we propose a two-stage stochastic programming model, which integrally deploys various types of emergency healthcare facilities before an epidemic and serves infected and non-infected patients dynamically at the deployed healthcare facilities during the epidemic. With the service equity of infected patients and various practical requirements of emergency medical services being explicitly considered, our model minimizes a weighted sum of the expected operation cost and the equity cost. We develop two comparison models and conduct a case study on Chengdu, a Chinese city influenced by the COVID-19 epidemic, to show the effectiveness and benefits of our proposed model. Sensitivity analyses are conducted to generate managerial insights and suggestions. Our study not only extends the existing emergency supply planning models but also can facilitate better practices of emergency medical service planning for large-scale epidemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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11. A dynamically consistent nonstandard finite difference scheme for a generalized SEIR epidemic model.
- Author
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Hoang, Manh Tuan and Ehrhardt, Matthias
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BASIC reproduction number ,FINITE differences ,INFECTIOUS disease transmission ,EPIDEMICS ,COVID-19 pandemic ,COMMUNICABLE diseases - Abstract
This work is devoted to the proposal and analysis of a new mathematical study of the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. First, a generalized SEIR epidemic model is presented that uses general nonlinear incidence rates to describe the 'psychological' effect. Then, a rigorous mathematical analysis is performed for the proposed SEIR model. We establish positivity and boundedness, calculate the basic reproduction number, determine possible equilibrium points (disease-free and endemic), and investigate their asymptotic stability properties of the SEIR model. The obtained results improve and extend a SEIR model constructed in a recent work; moreover, the proposed model is useful for studying the COVID-19 epidemic in particular and other infectious diseases in general. For the purpose of numerical simulation, the Mickens method is applied to construct a dynamically consistent non-standard finite difference (NSFD) model for the proposed SEIR epidemic model. The constructed NSFD scheme is able to provide reliable approximations that not only preserve the dynamic properties of the SEIR model for all values of the step size, but also are easy to implement. Finally, a series of illustrative numerical experiments are performed to support the theoretical findings and confirm the advantages of the NSFD scheme over some well-known standard methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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12. The impact on primary care of a large waterborne campylobacter outbreak in Norway: a controlled observational study.
- Author
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Iversen, A., Rortveit, G., Wensaas, K. A., and Gulla, C. O.
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EVALUATION of medical care ,GASTROENTERITIS ,SCIENTIFIC observation ,MEDICAL triage ,CONFIDENCE intervals ,FAMILY medicine ,TELEPHONES ,CAMPYLOBACTER infections ,CASE-control method ,PRIMARY health care ,COMPARATIVE studies ,EMERGENCY medical services communication systems ,WATER pollution ,EPIDEMICS ,DESCRIPTIVE statistics ,MEDICAL referrals ,ELECTRONIC health records ,ODDS ratio ,DATA analysis software - Abstract
Document the impact of an outbreak of gastroenteritis on local primary health care services, compared to a control period. Controlled observational study with data from the outbreak and a control period. Data obtained from electronic medical records (EMR) of general practitioners (GPs) and the out-of-hours (OOH) service. Telephone data from the OOH service's telephone records. Campylobacteriosis outbreak in Askøy municipality, Norway in 2019. Over 2000 individuals were infected. Patients in contact with GPs and the OOH service during the outbreak and a control period. Patient contacts with GPs and the OOH service during the outbreak and a control period. There was a 36% increase in contacts during the outbreak compared to the control period (4798 vs. 3528), with the OOH service handling 78% of outbreak-related contacts. Telephone advice was the dominant method for managing the increase in contacts to primary care, both in OOH services and daytime general practice (OR 3.73 CI: [3.24–4.28]). Children aged 0–4 years had increased use of primary care during the outbreak (OR 1.51 CI: [1.28–1.78]). GPs referred 25% and OOH services referred 75% of 70 hospitalized cases. The OOH service handled most of the patients during the outbreak, with support from daytime general practice. The outbreak caused a shift towards telephone advice as a means of providing care. Young children significantly increased their use of primary care during the outbreak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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13. Risk evaluation of the grain supply chain in China.
- Author
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Deng, Xiangzheng, Han, Ze, Xie, Wei, Wang, Guoxia, and Fan, Zhe
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SUPPLY chains ,RISK assessment ,FOOD security ,FOOD supply ,GOVERNMENT agencies - Abstract
The food supply chain (GSC) involves multiple links from production to consumption. The interruption of one or more links will lead to supply risks, evolving into food crises. To better guarantee food security, maintain national security, it is essential to improve the structural imbalance of China's food supply. This article innovatively regards trade as an important link in the food supply chain and quantitatively designs 16 indicators from the four links of production, consumption, trade, and circulation to evaluate the food supply chain risks of 30 provinces in China from 2003 to 2019. The results show that: (1) The GSC risk value at the regional scale is generally stable, and the western region is slightly higher than the eastern region. (2) The distribution of risk value shows significant spatial clustering. (3) During the study period, China's grain risk has not changed significantly. The highest average risk is the production link of the supply chain, followed by the distribution and trade links. He also believes that adjusting production, enhancing regional trade, strengthening suitability, and enhancing defensiveness are corresponding measures to improve the food supply chain. It is expected to provide a reasonable reference for government agencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
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