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The atmospheric Green's function method is a technique for modeling the response of the atmosphere to changes in the spatial field of surface temperature. While early studies applied this method to changes in atmospheric circulation, it has also become an important tool to understand changes in radiative feedbacks due to evolving patterns of warming, a phenomenon called the "pattern effect." To better study this method, this paper presents a protocol for creating atmospheric Green's functions to serve as the basis for a model intercomparison project, GFMIP. The protocol has been developed using a series of sensitivity tests performed with the HadAM3 atmosphere‐only general circulation model, along with existing and new simulations from other models. Our preliminary results have uncovered nonlinearities in the response of the atmosphere to surface temperature changes, including an asymmetrical response to warming versus cooling patch perturbations, and a change in the dependence of the response on the magnitude and size of the patches. These nonlinearities suggest that the pattern effect may depend on the heterogeneity of warming as well as its location. These experiments have also revealed tradeoffs in experimental design between patch size, perturbation strength, and the length of control and patch simulations. The protocol chosen on the basis of these experiments balances scientific utility with the simulation time and setup required by the Green's function approach. Running these simulations will further our understanding of many aspects of atmospheric response, from the pattern effect and radiative feedbacks to changes in circulation, cloudiness, and precipitation. Plain Language Summary: Many properties of the atmosphere are affected by the temperature of the ocean surface. Knowing how strong these effects are would help us to better predict global warming. The response to a given surface warming depends on where the warming occurs. To account for this, researchers sometimes simulate the response to individual patches of warming and then assume the response to an arbitrary warming pattern can be summed together from these patch responses. This is sometimes called the atmospheric Green's function method, and it works well at recreating the atmospheric response to historical temperature changes. We are organizing a Green's Function Model Intercomparison Project (GFMIP), in which participants will apply the method consistently for many climate models. This paper presents the GFMIP protocol. In the course of developing this protocol, we found that the atmospheric response to warming is not proportional in all cases: the response to surface warming is not the opposite of the response to surface cooling; warming twice as much doesn't cause twice as much of a response; and making a patch of warming twice as large doesn't cause twice as large a response. GFMIP will help us figure out how to account for this nonlinearity. Key Points: The Green's Function Model Intercomparison Project (GFMIP) explores the atmospheric response to surface temperature patch perturbationsThis paper presents the GFMIP protocol, which was generated using insights from past studies and new sensitivity testsGreen's functions reconstruct the response to historical temperatures, but nonlinearities can affect responses to other warming patterns [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over‐estimation of summer precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is a well‐known and persistent problem in most climate models. This study demonstrates the impact of a Gaussian Probability Density Function cloud fraction scheme on rainfall simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. It is found that this scheme in both 0.1° and 0.05° resolutions significantly reduces the wet bias through both local feedbacks and large‐scale dynamic process. Specifically, increased cloud water/ice content with this scheme reduces surface shortwave radiation, and consequently surface heat fluxes and evapotranspiration. This, in turn, dampens the large‐scale thermal effect of the TP and weakens the exaggerated monsoon circulation and low‐level moisture convergence. It is this large‐scale dynamic process that contributes the most (∼70%) to the wet bias reduction. Although this paper presents a modeling study, it highlights the cloud radiative feedback to the large‐scale dynamics and precipitation over the TP. Plain Language Summary: Despite numerous attempts to correct the overestimation of summer precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in current global and regional climate models, the issue persists. This study applies the Gaussian Probability Density Function (GPDF) cloud fraction scheme in the Weather Research and Forecasting model at two different resolutions (0.1° and 0.05°) during a summer over the TP. The results show that the GPDF scheme significantly mitigates the precipitation overestimation, particularly in the high‐resolution modeling. We explored the physical processes, both local and remote, that contribute to this improvement. Specifically, an increase in cloudiness reduces the amount of radiation reaching the land surface. This decrease in surface radiative heating not only reduces local evaporation but also weakens the thermal effect of the TP. The latter is a major driver of the South Asian monsoon that conveys moisture to the TP, and its weakening reduces moisture convergence over the TP. Both the decreases in local evaporation and remote moisture convergence contribute to the alleviation of the precipitation overestimation, and the latter plays a dominant role. These findings provide a unique perspective for reducing the wet bias over the TP, focusing on the surface available energy and associated remote moisture processes. Key Points: The use of the Gaussian Probability Density Function cloud fraction scheme in high resolution greatly reduces wet bias over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) during summerMore cloud water/ice with the scheme lessens TP's thermal effect, causing a weaker South Asian monsoon and moisture convergenceWet bias reduction is mainly governed by the decrease in remote moisture rather than local evapotranspiration [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The construction of sub‐daily pressure series is described for the cities of London (GB) and Paris (FR). The series extend back 1692 and 1748, respectively, and as such they represent two of the longest sub‐daily series of barometric pressure available. These series are updated from the previously documented London and Paris daily series and offer more homogeneous series, and in the case of the London series a more temporally complete sequence of data. A pairwise homogenization procedure has been applied to the two series alongside the long series of pressure that exists for De Bilt (NL). The De Bilt series has been available for some time in the International Surface Pressure Dataset (ISPD), but further quality control and homogeneity‐checking procedures have been applied to the data in this paper and therefore the three series are released together in this dataset. The series are of immediate interest for understanding changes to storm activity across the English Channel and North Atlantic region over an extended timeframe but may also be assimilated into reanalysis datasets such as the 20th‐century reanalysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this work, we consider a Shallow‐Water Quasi Geostrophic equation on the sphere, as a model for global large‐scale atmospheric dynamics. This equation, previously studied by Verkley (2009, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008jas2837.1) and Schubert et al. (2009, https://doi.org/10.3894/james.2009.1.2), possesses a rich geometric structure, called Lie‐Poisson, and admits an infinite number of conserved quantities, called Casimirs. In this paper, we develop a Casimir preserving numerical method for long‐time simulations of this equation. The method develops in two steps: first, we construct an N‐dimensional Lie‐Poisson system that converges to the continuous one in the limit N → ∞; second, we integrate in time the finite‐dimensional system using an isospectral time integrator, developed by Modin and Viviani (2020, https://doi.org/10.1017/jfm.2019.944). We demonstrate the efficacy of this computational method by simulating a flow on the entire sphere for different values of the Lamb parameter. We particularly focus on rotation‐induced effects, such as the formation of jets. In agreement with shallow water models of the atmosphere, we observe the formation of robust latitudinal jets and a decrease in the zonal wind amplitude with latitude. Furthermore, spectra of the kinetic energy are computed as a point of reference for future studies. Plain Language Summary: We conducted a study on a model that represents the movements of planetary flows. This model has important physical and mathematical properties that are related to its long‐term behavior, which is essential for understanding geophysical turbulence. In this work, we developed a numerical method for simulation that preserves the key mathematical structure of the model through a two‐step process. We applied our method to simulate global atmospheric flow and investigate the impact of varying strengths of planetary rotation. Our findings demonstrate the expected formation of wind patterns known as zonal jets, where stronger winds occur near the equator and weaker winds near the poles. We also present energy spectra that illustrate the influence of planetary rotation on the transfer of turbulent energy, which aligns with existing theoretical predictions found in literature. These results highlight the potential of our numerical method for studying fundamental problems in geophysical fluid dynamics. Key Points: We develop a numerical method preserving Casimirs to simulate balanced shallow water flow on the sphereWe perform global high‐resolution simulations while accurately accounting for latitude‐dependent effectsOur simulations show the formation of robust zonal jets and provide key insights into quasi‐geostrophic turbulence [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study assesses the midsummer precipitation prediction over eastern China by the dynamic downscaling method. Based on the Climate Forecast System version 2 of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, the prediction performance of global and regional models on the July precipitation over eastern China is further analyzed by hindcast experiments from 1982 to 2010 and prediction experiments from 2011 to 2021. The results suggest that the regional model forced by the global model can noticeably improve the prediction skill for precipitation in eastern China, especially in the region from the South of North China to the Yangtze River Basin, referred as the northern China in this paper. In addition, we perform a diagnostic analysis of the reason for the improvement of the model prediction skill. The results indicate that the high resolution of the regional model and the refinement of physical process parameterizations contribute to improving the simulation ability for the East Asian atmospheric circulation pattern, heat flux, especially for the meridional teleconnection pattern in East Asia and the sensible heat flux in the northern China, thus further improving precipitation prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations have revealed that the deadly "hot eastern‐pluvial western" climate pattern in Asia in summer 2022 is by no means an exception. In recent decade this pattern is becoming much more frequent owing to the notable westward extension and enhancement of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH). The anomalously enhanced WPSH fills the gap in geopotential heights between the Arabian Sea‐Iranian Plateau and the western Pacific, produces a heat dome over eastern Asia and intensifies the moisture convergence over western Asia by changing the water vapor transportation path. Projections of 19 CMIP6 models show that both the temperature in eastern Asia and precipitation in western Asia will remarkably increase under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2‐4.5, SSP 3‐7.0, and SSP 5‐8.5 scenarios, with temperature anomalies 0.8°C, 1.5°C, and 2.4°C higher and the percentages of precipitation anomaly 6.3%, 9.4%, and 12.5% larger than the reference period in the near, middle, and long terms under the moderate emission scenario (SSP2‐4.5). Therefore, the "hot eastern‐pluvial western" Asia is becoming a new normal and exacerbating the risk of compound disasters. Plain Language Summary: In summer 2022, eastern Asia experienced the most extensive and long‐lasting heatwave since 1951, while exceptional floods hit western Asia during the same period. It is found that this "hot eastern‐pluvial western" pattern has occurred more and more frequently since 1981. This could be attributed to the linear trend of the westward extension and enhancement of the western Pacific subtropical high. In this paper, we assess the expected changes by using the latest generation of global climate model projections. The "hot eastern‐pluvial western" climate pattern and the associated atmospheric circulations are projected to increase from 2020s to the end of the 21st century under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, suggesting more fatal heatwaves in eastern Asia and floods in western Asia in the future. Key Points: The catastrophic climate pattern of "hot eastern‐pluvial western" Asia occurred frequently in recent decades especially in summer 2022The increasing trend of this pattern could be attributed to the westward extension and enhancement of the western Pacific subtropical highProjections of CMIP6 models show that the "hot eastern‐pluvial western" will occur normally in future [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an analysis of the relationships between soil moisture, cloud cover, solar radiation, air temperature and humidity, and precipitation during the warm half of the year in East‐Central Europe over the years 1971–2020. The temporal and spatial variability of these meteorological elements is presented in association with the occurrence of anticyclonic blocking events over the study area. It demonstrates that changes in soil moisture in East‐Central Europe point to the combined influence of many meteorological factors resulting from the atmospheric circulation, and are an indicator of the comprehensive relationships among those factors. The main factors affecting soil water content are precipitation and evapotranspiration, which in turn depend on air humidity, cloudiness, intensity of solar radiation and air temperature. The increase in the frequency and duration of sequences of days with blocking events in East‐Central Europe has contributed to an increased probability of longer periods with soil moisture negative anomalies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From the beginning of the 21st century, the heat waves in Europe have become more frequent, severe and longer lasting, especially in the southern region. The longer duration of heat waves may be partly attributed to wave‐amplification, high‐amplitude waves in the mid‐latitudes, favouring the longer‐lasting blocking systems. The primary objective of the paper was to examine the long‐term changes of hot days and heat wave events and to identify the atmospheric circulation condition that prevails its occurrence. The other object was to investigate the correlations between hot days' occurrence in Poland and sea‐ice cover and sea surface temperature changes in the Arctic and its surroundings. Over the past few decades, Central and Southern Poland have experienced a considerable rise in maximum temperatures, which has led to an increase in the number of hot days. This increase is particularly prominent during the summer months (June, July and August) but also in May and September, which extends the hot season. Although heat waves have become more frequent and persistent since 2006, their mean intensity has remained unchanged. During all heat waves in Poland, the high‐pressure centre was located over the country or its close neighbourhood, mainly in the eastern sector but also in the south, southwest or over Scandinavia. The blocking systems were mainly related to the extended ridge of the Azores High, but also to strong blocking over the North Pole and Greenland reaching Scandinavia or anomalous high pressure in the East Arctic. The longest‐lasting heat waves were usually preceded by air masses advection from the Atlantic, but the highest potential temperature along the trajectories was observed for the southern direction of inflow. The growing number of hot days is statistically significantly related to the decreasing sea‐ice cover and increasing sea surface temperature in Arctic and Subarctic regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Beaufort Sea High is a high‐pressure system located in the Beaufort Sea that influences ocean circulation in the western Arctic known as the Beaufort Gyre. Wrangel Island, located in the western Chukchi Sea, typically experiences easterly sea ice motion due to the Beaufort Gyre. We find that under these climatological conditions, moving ice is blocked by the island and accumulates on its eastern side, while ice on its western side continues to drift leaving an area of open water and reduced ice thickness along the western side of the island. This results in an ice thickness dipole across the island. A reversal in the atmospheric circulation across the western Arctic results in a dipole with the opposing sign. We find the dipole is present throughout the year and is strongest in January when the difference in ice thickness between the eastern and western sides of the island is approximately 1 m. During the spring, it is associated with the transient opening of a polynya to the west of the island. The dipole is the result of opposing ice divergence and convergence across the western Arctic and may impact ocean circulation and ecosystems within the Chukchi Sea. Plain Language Summary: The Arctic climate is rapidly changing with many important environmental consequences prompting increased scientific study. In this paper, we examine the interaction of drifting sea ice and Wrangel Island, which is located in the western Arctic Ocean's Chukchi Sea. We find that ice typically drifts from the east and is blocked by the island causing the ice to accumulate on its eastern side. Ice continues to drift away from the western side of the island, thus a contrast or "dipole" in ice thickness is created. This dipole is present throughout the year and is strongest in January when the ice thickness difference is around 1 m. We find that the formation of the dipole is associated with strong westward winds at the island. These winds are associated with a strong high‐pressure system called the Beaufort Sea High that results in anti‐cyclonic winds, ice motion, and surface currents throughout the region. A reversal from easterly to westerly winds results in a dipole of opposing sign. The dipole is associated with ice thickness anomalies across the western Arctic and may impact ocean circulation and ecosystems across the region. Key Points: Ice motion in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas can result in a sea ice thickness dipole in the vicinity of Wrangel IslandA reversal in wind direction and sea‐level pressure anomalies across the western Arctic Ocean can cause the signal of the dipole to reverseThe dipole is the result of ice motion divergence and convergence across the region and may impact ocean circulation and ecosystems [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the authors quantitatively investigated the joint impact of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) over Indo‐Myanmar in boreal winter from 1981 to 2018, and found that there is a significant in‐phase variation between them. When the warm ENSO co‐occurs with the positive AO, the NPP in more than 80% of the grids in the study region significantly increases by approximately 24 gC m−2. For the cold ENSO plus the negative AO, the regionally averaged NPP anomalies are approximately −10 gC m−2, and the local minimum is as low as −60 gC m−2. The combination of AO and ENSO can explain approximately 36% of the total variance of NPP in Indo‐Myanmar. The AO/ENSO linkages to the NPP are very likely due to regional precipitation anomalies through atmospheric circulation. In association with the positive (negative) AO, the Rossby wave, propagating eastward along the subtropical jet stream, brings an anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) over Indo‐Myanmar. This enhances (weakens) Indo‐Myanmar Trough, and resulting in more (less) regional precipitation. During the warm (cold) ENSO, through the Gill‐type response, an anomalous high (low)‐pressure appears in the lower and middle troposphere over Philippine‐South China Sea. The Walker circulation is also weaker (stronger) than normal. These are conducive to anomalous southerly (northerly) winds in Indochina. As a result, in the warm ENSO plus positive AO winters, the mean precipitation anomaly in Indo‐Myanmar increased by 27% as averaged for five data sets. In contrast, when the cold ENSO co‐occurs with negative AO, the precipitation is significantly reduced where the largest anomaly exceeds 100 mm in the ERA5. The precipitation changes are consistent with the local NPP anomalies, whereas the temperature does not seem to be a dominant limiting factor. Plain Language Summary: Vegetation is closely dependent on regional climatic conditions such as temperature and precipitation, whereas these meteorological elements are sensitive to large‐scale climate factors. Therefore, it is necessary to explore the vegetation drivers and underlying physical mechanisms. In this research, we focused on investigating the joint impact of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) over Indo‐Myanmar in boreal winter from 1981 to 2018, the results show that the combination of AO and ENSO can explain approximately 36% of the total variance in regional NPP. The AO/ENSO linkages to the NPP are very likely due to regional precipitation anomalies through atmospheric circulation. In association with the positive (negative) AO, an eastward Rossby wave propagating along the subtropical jet stream brings an anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) over Indo‐Myanmar. During the warm (cold) ENSO, a southerly (northerly) wind anomaly prevails over Indochina via the Gill‐type response and weaker (stronger) Walker circulation than normal. As a result, when the warm (cold) ENSO co‐occurs with the positive (negative) AO winters, Indo‐Myanmar could experience more (less) precipitation than normal, which can lead to more NPP here. Key Points: There is a significant and robust in‐phase variation between the Arctic Oscillation (AO)/El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and net primary productivity (NPP) over Indo‐Myanmar in boreal winterThe combination of AO and ENSO can explain 36% of the total variance in NPPPrecipitation plays a critical bridge in teleconnection between AO/ENSO and local NPP and explains nearly 40% of the total variance in NPP [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the changes of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) associated winter rainfall relationship in Southeast Asia (SEA) in the historical period (1981–2010) and future period (2071–2100) based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models simulations. Twenty general circulation models (GCMs) are chosen from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) highest emission scenario—Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 5‐8.5. This study focuses only on the GCMs that have been able to replicate the consistent associated patterns observed, referred to as "teleconnection‐consistent models" (TCMs). During historical period, ENSO has significant negative association with SEA winter rainfall, particularly over Indochina mainland, Maritime Continent (MC) and northern Borneo. The significant negative‐associated teleconnection affected area has increased under future climate, particularly over southern part of South China Sea (SCS). The weakening of south westerlies at Western North Pacific (WNP) centred near 20°N reduces the moisture transport from Indochina into south of China, increase the negative correlated affected area in the SEA regions above equator. The northeasterlies/easterlies that prevailed from the WNP anticyclone (AC) brings significant moisture flux into southern Borneo, causing increment of significant positive‐associated moisture flux convergence to that region. The weakening of upward motion in TCM results in less warm and moist air rising over SEA MC, reducing the rainfall availability. The 1° eastward expansion of WC downward branch eastern edge leads to suppression of convective activities, increasing the dry affected area. The results suggest that the ENSO has a larger influence on the negative‐associated SEA rainfall and atmospheric circulation in the December–January–February (DJF) late‐21st century when compared to the 1980–2010. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a result of their important role in weather and the global hydrological cycle, understanding atmospheric rivers' (ARs) connection to synoptic‐scale climate patterns and atmospheric dynamics has become increasingly important. In addition to case studies of two extreme AR events, we produce a December climatology of the three‐dimensional structure of water vapor and O3 (ozone) distributions associated with ARs in the northeastern Pacific from 2004 to 2014 using MERRA‐2 reanalysis products. Results show that positive O3 anomalies reside in dry intrusions of stratospheric air due to stratosphere‐to‐troposphere transport (STT) behind the intense water vapor transport of the AR. In composites, we find increased excesses of O3 concentration, as well as in the total O3 flux within the dry intrusions, with increased AR strength. We find that STT O3 flux associated with ARs over the NE Pacific accounts for up to 13% of total Northern Hemisphere STT O3 flux in December, and extrapolation indicates that AR‐associated dry intrusions may account for as much as 32% of total NH STT O3 flux. This study quantifies STT of O3 in connection with ARs for the first time and improves estimates of tropospheric ozone concentration due to STT in the identification of this correlation. In light of predictions that ARs will become more intense and/or frequent with climate change, quantifying AR‐related STT O3 flux is especially valuable for future radiative forcing calculations. Plain Language Summary: Long filaments of rapidly moving water vapor in the atmosphere, known as atmospheric rivers (ARs), play a vital role in the Earth's water cycle. Because of this, research continues to expand into ARs' relationship with large‐scale climate patterns. In this paper, we use data from the Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research Applications to examine several extreme ARs that made landfall on the U.S. West Coast and their relationship to the transport of ozone from the stratosphere to the troposphere. We then combine 11 years of December AR and ozone data in order to study the average trend of ozone transport in connection with ARs. We quantify the AR‐related ozone transport for the first time, and we find ARs with more intense water vapor transport result in the transport of higher concentrations of ozone. Quantifying ozone transport into the troposphere in connection with ARs is important as ARs may become more intense and/or more frequent with climate change, and ozone in the troposphere has consequences for the greenhouse effect. Key Points: Case studies and December climatology using MERRA‐2 reveal positive tropospheric ozone anomalies within dry intrusions associated with ARsAverage excess ozone concentrations are 10–13 ppbv at 400 hPa, and are even greater for increasing intensity of ARsSTT of ozone associated with ARs in the NE Pacific may account for (13 ± 2)% of the total December Northern Hemisphere STT ozone flux [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The physicochemical properties and origins of atmospheric aerosols in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) region are a research topic of great interest, but an in‐depth understanding of this topic is challenging, partially due to a lack of intensive in situ observations. Thus, a field campaign was conducted over Yadong, a remote area on the south slope of the TP from June 11 to 31 August 2021. The aerosol loading was low, with a black carbon mass concentration of 147.4 ± 98.4 ng·m−3. Aerosol single‐scattering albedo was low (0.73 ± 0.11 at 550 nm) and increased from 450 to 700 nm wavelength. Organic matter (OM) accounting for 69.6% of the total aerosol mass and relatively high secondary organic carbon ratios, highlighting the importance of secondary formation. An interesting phenomenon observed was that the evolution of aerosols was mainly characterized by diurnal variation, which could not be explained by large‐scale atmospheric processes such as Indian summer monsoon. Instead, it was found that regional mountain‐valley winds between the Himalayas and South Asia transported polluted air masses toward the TP, especially in the afternoon when regional valley wind are expected to be the strongest and the boundary layer in South Asia is deepest. Additionally, daytime local valley wind further elevated these aerosols to higher altitudes on the TP. This paper provides insights into the transport mechanisms of aerosols from South Asia to the TP. These findings are of great importance since aerosols exhibit significant diurnal variations in the TP region. Plain Language Summary: Previous studies focused on the analysis of the physical or chemical properties of aerosols on the Tibetan Plateau, but this study provides a comprehensive examination of both. The findings reveal that aerosols on the southern slope of the Tibetan Plateau exhibit strong absorption efficiency. Aerosol single‐scattering albedo was low (0.73 ± 0.11 at 550 nm), which may be attributed to aerosol secondary generation and coating. Finally, the mechanism of pollutant transport from South Asia to the Tibetan Plateau was analyzed relies on site observations, satellite, and reanalysis data to highlight the link between diurnal variations of pollutants and transport mechanism. The specific transport mechanism be understood uniformly across different scales, including Indian summer monsoon, regional mountain‐valley winds between the Himalayas and South Asia, and local mountain‐valley winds circulation. Key Points: Aerosol single‐scattering albedo was low (0.73 ± 0.11 at 550 nm) and secondary organic matter was the major aerosol componentThe evolution of aerosols was mainly characterized by diurnal variation that was related to transport mechanism over YadongThe Himalayas‐South Asia regional mountain‐valley winds combined with local mountain‐valley winds transport aerosols to the Tibetan Plateau [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric eddies serve as a crucial component of global circulation on Mars. It is of great scientific and engineering significance to study the spatio‐temporal characteristics of atmospheric eddies and eddy sequences. In this paper, based on the Open access to Mars Assimilated Remote Soundings (OpenMARS) dataset, we used an eddy detection and sequence tracking method to extract a total of 4,089 eddies in LS = 109° MY28 to LS = 109° MY29, which comprised 3,385 cyclones and 704 anticyclones. Notably, the northern hemisphere exhibited a markedly higher eddy number compared with the southern hemisphere, and more than 82% of eddies had an equivalent radius greater than 400 km. These eddies mainly gathered in the interior and vicinity of basins, mountains, and broad plains in the northern hemisphere. Martian atmospheric eddies can be classified into two categories: topographic eddies, which are related to the various landforms on Mars and non‐topographic eddies, which do not show obvious terrain dependence. Additionally, our analysis yielded 83 extracted eddy sequences, with nearly 90% of them exhibiting short life cycles of less than 40 Martian days (sols). Eddy sequences mainly arise in the spring and summer seasons of the northern hemisphere. Considering the instrument criterion of minimal atmospheric eddy activity for the Tianwen‐3 mission, Chryse Planitia was identified as the optimal landing area. Plain Language Summary: Atmospheric eddies, or "a movement of air, dust, or water in a circle" are a crucial component of Mars' global circulation. Studying eddy sequences is essential to understand the atmospheric circulation on Mars. During LS = 109° MY28 to LS = 109° MY29, a total of 4,089 eddies were identified using the OpenMARS dataset, with a higher occurrence of cyclones in both hemispheres during spring and summer compared to autumn and winter. Based on the distribution and density of the eddy centers, we classified the eddies into two categories: topographic eddies and non‐topographic eddies. Topographic eddies are influenced and restricted by the topography of the Martian surface, mainly concentrated in areas with positive and negative topographical features. Non‐topographic eddies are predominantly dispersed over high‐latitude regions. The moving distances of the topographic eddies are usually short, and they are more stable than the non‐topographic eddies. In addition, we extracted 83 eddy sequences, of which nearly 90% had short lifecycles less than 40 Martian days (sols). China's Tianwen‐3 mission is scheduled to return samples in 2030. We think Chryse Planitia is the optimal landing area for the Tianwen‐3 mission according to the spatio‐temporal distribution characteristics of Martian eddies. Key Points: A total of 4,089 eddies were extracted in MY28‐29 using the eddy detection and sequence tracking methodEddies can be classified into topographic eddies (related to landforms) and non‐topographic eddies (no obvious terrain dependence)Considering the features of Martian atmospheric eddies, Chryse Planitia was identified as the optimal landing site for Tianwen‐3 mission [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical cyclones (TCs) induce substantial upper‐ocean mixing and upwelling, leading to sea surface cooling. In this study, we explore changes in TC‐induced cold wakes along the United States (U.S.) Southeast and Gulf Coasts during 1982–2020. Our study shows a significant increase in TC‐induced sea surface temperature (SST) cooling of about 0.20°C near the U.S. Southeast Coast over this period. However, for the U.S. Gulf Coast, trends in TC‐induced SST cooling are insignificant. Analysis of the large‐scale oceanic environments indicate that the increasing TC‐induced cold wakes near the Southeast coast have been predominantly caused by the cooling of subsurface waters in that region. This upper‐ocean change is attributed to the enhancement of surface pressure gradient across land‐sea boundary and the associated increase in alongshore winds over there. Further analysis with climate models reveals the important role of anthropogenic forcings in driving these changes in the atmospheric circulation response along the U.S. Southeast Coast. Plain Language Summary: Tropical cyclones (TCs) can induce strong mixing in the upper ocean and upwelling of cold, nutrient‐rich water from subsurface to the surface. This process can induce significant sea surface cooling and enhance primary productivity. Utilizing satellite observations, we found evidence that the sea surface cooling associated with TCs has been increasing significantly in the near‐shore regions of United States (U.S.) Southeast Coast. However, corresponding trends in the U.S. Gulf Coast are not significant. Here we show that the enhanced TC‐induced SST cooling along the U.S. Southeast Coast has occurred in response to changes in the atmospheric circulation associated with global warming. These findings shed light on the potential changes in the interactions between TCs and the upper ocean conditions under a non‐stationary climate. Key Points: The tropical cyclone induced sea surface temperature cooling has significantly increased near the U.S. Southeast Coast in recent decadesThe increasing trend in TC‐induced cold wake is primarily attributed to subsurface cooling driven by the change in atmospheric circulationClimate models suggest greenhouse gases are likely responsible for the atmospheric circulation changes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two Earth system models are analyzed to gain insight into the processes that govern projected changes in the South Asian monsoon. Warmer present‐day base state tropical SSTs contribute to coupled processes that produce greater future tropical Pacific warming in CESM2 with less of an increase in season‐mean monsoon precipitation compared to E3SMv2. This is attributed to changes in the large‐scale east‐west atmospheric Walker circulation, with relatively larger increases in precipitation and upper‐level divergence over the tropical Pacific and increases in upper‐level convergence over South Asia in CESM2. The stronger El Niño‐like response in CESM2, which increases Pacific precipitation and upper‐level divergence farther to the east, and larger future ENSO amplitude in E3SMv2, produce a greater relative increase in future monsoon‐ENSO connections in E3SMv2 compared to CESM2. This analysis indicates that the key processes that affect future monsoon‐ENSO connections are ENSO amplitude and size of the future tropical Pacific El Niño‐like response. Plain Language Summary: Two different Earth system models are analyzed to investigate processes that contribute to possible future changes of South Asian monsoon precipitation and connections to ENSO. The stronger increase of precipitation in CESM2 over the tropical Pacific, due in part to a larger El Niño‐like response of Pacific SSTs, produces less of an increase in future monsoon precipitation in CESM2 compared to E3SMv2. The eastward shift of precipitation in CESM2, along with the larger increase of ENSO amplitude in E3SMv2, produce a stronger future monsoon‐ENSO connection in E3SMv2 compared to CESM2. Key Points: Warmer future tropical Pacific SSTs in CESM2 compared to E3SMv2 produce less of an increase in South Asian monsoon precipitation through the Walker CirculationFuture monsoon‐ENSO connections are stronger in E3SMv2 compared to CESM2 due to larger increases in future ENSO amplitude and shifts in the Walker CirculationKey processes that affect future monsoon‐ENSO connections are ENSO amplitude and the size of the future tropical Pacific El Niño‐like response [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using observations and CMIP6 historical simulations, the seasonal responses of Southern Ocean (50°S–70°S) sea surface temperature (SST) to Southern Annular Mode (SAM) variations are investigated in this study. The results suggest that the averaged Southern Ocean SST in austral spring and summer show a significant cooling in response to a positive SAM, while the responses in austral autumn and winter are negligible. The cooling effect is resulted from the cold water in higher latitudes and deeper oceans brought by the equatorward Ekman transport and the Ekman pumping associated with the positive SAM. Among CMIP6 models, the magnitude of the simulated cooling response connects to the climatological meridional and vertical ocean temperature gradients, and the magnitude of Ekman motion in response to SAM. In addition, the spring and summer SAM plays a more important role in modulating Southern Ocean SST in autumn and winter than the autumn and winter SAM. Plain Language Summary: Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is the first leading mode of atmospheric circulation in extratropical Southern Hemisphere and has an important influence on climate. This study evaluates the seasonal response of Southern Ocean SST to SAM variations in the CMIP6 historical simulations. We found that the regional averaged Southern Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) in austral spring and summer shows significant cooling signals in response to positive SAM. The responses of mean SST over Southern Ocean in austral autumn and winter to SAM during same seasons are not significant. The strengthening in Ekman transport and Ekman pumping in response to positive SAM would bring cold water from higher latitudes and deeper ocean to ocean surface, and hence, lead to a cooling effect. In addition, the simulations with a larger climatological meridional or vertical temperature gradient and stronger Ekman movements in response to positive SAM tends to generate a stronger cooling signal over Southern Ocean driven by positive SAM. Further analysis indicates that the austral spring and summer SAM has a more significant impact on Southern Ocean SST in austral autumn and winter, which might explain why the responses of Southern Ocean SST in austral autumn and winter to simultaneous SAM are not statistically significant. Key Points: The Southern Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) show a significant cooling in response to positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in austral spring and summerThe Ekman movements associated with enhanced SAM bring cold water from higher latitudes and deeper ocean, causing cooling effectsSAM in spring and summer play a more important role in modulating the autumn and winter SST than the SAM in autumn and winter [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A novel sub‐sampling method has been used to isolate the dynamic effects of the response of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Siberian High (SH) from the total response to projected Arctic sea‐ice loss under 2°C global warming above preindustrial levels in very large initial‐condition ensemble climate simulations. Thermodynamic effects of Arctic warming are more prominent in Europe while dynamic effects are more prominent in Asia/East Asia. This explains less‐severe cold extremes in Europe but more‐severe cold extremes in Asia/East Asia. For Northern Eurasia, dynamic effects overwhelm the effect of increased moisture from a warming Arctic, leading to an overall decrease in precipitation. We show that the response scales linearly with the dynamic response. However, caution is needed when interpreting inter‐model differences in the response because of internal variability, which can largely explain the inter‐model spread in the NAO and SH response in the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project. Plain Language Summary: The projected loss of Arctic sea‐ice under 2°C global warming will cause large warming in the Arctic region and climate and weather anomalies outside the Arctic. The warming in the Arctic will mean warmer airmasses coming from the Arctic and also more moisture from the open Arctic Ocean. Furthermore, it will also change atmospheric circulation. These effects together will determine the impacts of Arctic warming. In this study, we introduce a novel sub‐sampling method to isolate atmospheric circulation change in response to the Arctic warming. The method involves selecting members of simulations from the experiment with future Arctic sea‐ice conditions, the average of which is equal to the average of the members of simulations in the experiment with present‐day Arctic sea‐ice conditions. We found that atmospheric circulation change in European regions is relatively weak so that warming effects will dominate the climate and weather response there. On the other hand, atmospheric circulation change will dominate the climate and weather response in East Eurasia. We also found that stronger atmospheric circulation changes will generally increase the response to the Arctic warming. We suggest caution when assessing whether different responses in different models can be interpreted as true differences in model physics. Key Points: A novel sub‐sampling method is introduced to isolate the role of dynamics in the response to projected Arctic sea‐ice lossA dynamical Siberian High response dominates the temperature response over East Eurasia while that of the North Atlantic Oscillation is weakInter‐model differences in Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project likely contain a large fraction of internal variability due to the unconstrained dynamic effects [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Canonical understanding based on general circulation models (GCMs) is that the atmospheric circulation response to midlatitude sea‐surface temperature (SST) anomalies is weak compared to the larger influence of tropical SST anomalies. However, the ∼100‐km horizontal resolution of modern GCMs is too coarse to resolve strong updrafts within weather fronts, which could provide a pathway for surface anomalies to be communicated aloft. Here, we investigate the large‐scale atmospheric circulation response to idealized Gulf Stream SST anomalies in Community Atmosphere Model (CAM6) simulations with 14‐km regional grid refinement over the North Atlantic, and compare it to the responses in simulations with 28‐km regional refinement and uniform 111‐km resolution. The highest resolution simulations show a large positive response of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to positive SST anomalies in the Gulf Stream, a 0.4‐standard‐deviation anomaly in the seasonal‐mean NAO for 2°C SST anomalies. The lower‐resolution simulations show a weaker response with a different spatial structure. The enhanced large‐scale circulation response results from an increase in resolved vertical motions with resolution and an associated increase in the influence of SST anomalies on transient‐eddy heat and momentum fluxes in the free troposphere. In response to positive SST anomalies, these processes lead to a stronger and less variable North Atlantic jet, as is characteristic of positive NAO anomalies. Our results suggest that the atmosphere responds differently to midlatitude SST anomalies in higher‐resolution models and that regional refinement in key regions offers a potential pathway to improve multi‐year regional climate predictions based on midlatitude SSTs. Plain Language Summary: Variations in the ocean surface temperature (SST) influence the atmospheric circulation and thus climate over land. Canonical understanding is that tropical SSTs are more important than SSTs in midlatitudes. However, this understanding is based on climate models that don't resolve processes at scales less than 100 km. Here, we show that by increasing the atmospheric model resolution to resolve features on smaller scales, such as weather fronts, we find a larger atmospheric circulation response to midlatitude SST anomalies in the North Atlantic. North Atlantic SST anomalies can be predicted multiple years in advance, and a larger atmospheric circulation response to these predictable SST anomalies therefore implies increased predictability of climate over the surrounding land regions. Key Points: There is a large circulation response to idealized Gulf Stream sea‐surface temperature (SST) anomalies in an atmospheric model with 14‐km regional grid refinementThis response is weaker or absent in simulations with 28‐km or coarser resolution, which do not fully resolve mesoscale frontal processesTransient‐eddy fluxes of heat and momentum are modified as fronts pass over warm SSTs, leading to a large‐scale circulation response [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Svalbard spans large climate gradients, associated with atmospheric circulation patterns and variations in ocean heat content and sea ice cover. Future precipitation increases are projected to peak in the northeast and to mainly occur in winter, but uncertainties underscore the need for reconstructions of long‐term spatial and temporal variations in precipitation amounts and seasonality. We use lipid biomarkers from four sedimentary lake records along a climatic gradient from western to northeastern Svalbard to reconstruct Holocene water cycle changes. We measured the leaf wax hydrogen isotopic composition of long‐chain (terrestrial) and mid‐chain (aquatic) n‐alkanoic acids, reflecting δ2H of precipitation (δ2Hprecip) and lake water (δ2Hlake), respectively. δ2Hprecip values mainly reflect summer precipitation δ2H and evapotranspiration, whereas δ2Hlake values can reflect various precipitation seasonality due to varying lake hydrology. For one lake, we used the difference between δ2Hprecip and δ2Hlake (εprecip‐lake) to infer summer evapotranspiration changes. Relatively 2H‐enriched δ2Hprecip values and higher εprecip‐lake in the Early and Middle Holocene suggest warm summers with higher evapotranspiration, and/or more proximal summer moisture. After c. 6 cal. ka BP, 2H‐depleted δ2Hprecip values and lower εprecip‐lake indicate summer cooling, less evapotranspiration, or more distally derived moisture. Early to Middle Holocene decrease in δ2Hlake values in two northern Spitsbergen lakes reflects an increase in the proportion of winter relative to summer precipitation, associated with regional warming and increased moisture supply, which may be due to increased distal moisture supply and/or reduced sea ice cover. Our northern Svalbard δ2Hlake records suggest great Late Holocene climate variability with periodic winter precipitation increases or decreases in summer precipitation inflow to the lakes. We find that Holocene summer precipitation δ2H values mainly follow changes in summer insolation and temperature, whereas the seasonal distribution of precipitation is sensitive to catchment hydrology, regional ocean surface conditions, and moisture source changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The long‐term memory of the ocean makes sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) become a significant predictor for the subsequent atmosphere, and the tropical ocean is primarily regarded as a major source of atmospheric anomalies. While in North Pacific, the local midlatitude SSTAs also have large contributions but have not been adequately considered yet. We discover a strong connection between the Kuroshio‐Oyashio Extension (KOE) SSTAs in spring and the local atmospheric circulation anomalies in following summer at interannual timescale, wherein, the spring KOE SSTAs are generally independent of tropical ocean, and they are primarily induced by the concurrent atmospheric anomalies via surface heat flux and ocean dynamic processes. The spring KOE SSTAs can persist to summer, and then generate nearly reversed whole‐layer atmospheric circulation anomalies in their north side through both diabatic heating and atmospheric transient eddy forcing. Consequently, precipitation anomalies in Pan‐Pacific regions are distinctly modulated from spring to summer. Plain Language Summary: Because of the vast heat‐holding capacity and the long‐term memory of ocean, sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) are usually taken as the significant factors to understand and predict climate anomalies. On interannual timescale, attentions have primarily centered on the tropical SSTAs, but recent studies indicated that the SSTAs in mid‐to‐high latitudes, especially in the Kuroshio‐Oyashio Extension (KOE) could have important feedbacks on the atmosphere. In this study, the KOE SSTAs in spring are discovered to have large interannual variability, and they are independent of the tropical SSTAs but closely linked to the subsequent summer atmospheric anomalies. It is found that the spring KOE SSTAs are mainly forced by the atmosphere via the surface heat flux and the ocean dynamic processes. In turn, they can persist to summer, and then play a dominant role in the air‐sea interaction in North Pacific, inducing remarkable geopotential height anomalies in north side. Consequently, in terms of the KOE SSTAs evolving from spring to summer, the Pan‐Pacific precipitation anomalies are distinctly modulated due to the opposite air‐sea interaction processes in the two seasons. These findings advocate for the use of springtime KOE SSTAs as a predictive indicator for following summer atmospheric and precipitation conditions. Key Points: The spring Kuroshio‐Oyashio Extension (KOE) sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) are independent of tropical ocean and primarily forced by the concurrent local atmosphere at interannual timescaleThe spring KOE SSTAs can persist to summer and exert a delayed cross‐season impact on the subsequent summer atmosphereAssociated with the spring KOE SSTAs, precipitation anomalies in Pan‐Pacific regions are distinctly modulated from spring to summer [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study drying trends across the central latitude strip of Europe (47.5–52.5°N and 2.5–27.5°E) during 1980–2019 and their links to atmospheric circulation. Daily differences between potential evapotranspiration and precipitation (PET–P) calculated from the E–OBS data are used to characterize dryness, and atmospheric circulation is represented by circulation types classified using daily sea level pressure patterns from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Circulation types favoring dry conditions in vegetation season (April–September) are identified based on daily PET–P, and their temporal changes, seasonal variations, and links to trends in dryness in individual European regions are analyzed. In the early vegetation season (AMJ), drying trends are observed mainly in Western and Central Europe while in the late vegetation season (JAS), they are located predominantly in Eastern Europe. The dry circulation types include all anticyclonic types in all regions, as well as northeast to south (southwest in Eastern Europe) directional types. Trends of the dry circulation types correspond to those of dryness: the largest increase is found during AMJ in Western and Central Europe but during JAS in Eastern Europe. The results show that trends in dryness in the central latitude strip of Europe in the warm half‐year were associated with changes in atmospheric circulation, as the largest increases in frequency of dry circulation types occurred in the regions and months affected by pronounced drying. The increasing frequency of anticyclonic types in AMJ and reduced inflow of moist air masses from the Atlantic are the key factors supporting intensification of dry conditions in European mid‐latitudes. Plain Language Summary: Drought is a major climatic hazard that threatens many aspects of society and ecosystems. The 2015–2018 dry period and the recent dry summer of 2022 in Europe are mere examples of many recent droughts developing worldwide. We studied how dryness severity progressed in Europe since 1980 and whether trends in dryness were linked to changes in atmospheric circulation. We found distinct regional patterns in drying trends: while Western and Central Europe recorded the largest increases in dryness during the early vegetation season (April–June), Eastern Europe, by contrast, had more distinct drying trends in the late vegetation season (July–September). We linked this pattern to changes in frequency of circulation types favorable to dryness and concluded that increased frequency of anticyclonic (clear‐sky) weather and reduced westerly flow of moist oceanic air contributed to drought intensification in European mid‐latitudes. Key Points: Significant drying trends in European mid‐latitudes since 1980s have been primarily linked to growing potential evapotranspirationDry conditions during early vegetation season have become more frequent and severe particularly in Western and Central EuropeIncreased frequency of circulation types favoring dry conditions corresponds both spatially and temporally to the drying trends [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme glacier melt has important implications for climate change studies and glacier‐related hazards. Few attempts have been made to study the characteristics and mechanisms of extreme melt on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and surroundings, one of the largest concentrations of glaciers beyond the polar regions. To address this gap, we investigated the magnitude and possible drivers of anomalous early spring glacier melt in 2022 on the central TP using multi‐source observations (October 2020–July 2022) of Kuoqionggangri and Sangqu glaciers and an energy and mass balance model. Our results show that anomalous melt of both glaciers occurred in early spring (18 March–10 April 2022), when glaciers are traditionally expected to be frozen. There were 89 cumulative hours with air temperatures above 0°C, with a positive cumulative air temperature of 121.80°C hour at 5,700 m on Kuoqionggangri Glacier. The glacier‐wide cumulative melts on Kuoqionggangri and Sangqu glaciers from 18 March to 10 April 2022 were 22 ± 14.2 and 48 ± 37.5 mm w.e., respectively. Such anomalous glacier melt was driven by high incoming shortwave radiation and sensible heat flux, which were influenced by low cloud fraction and precipitation, and high air temperature during early spring. The weakening and northward‐shift of the westerlies, coupled with descending air motions over the central TP, reduced cloud fraction and hindered the transport of cold, moist air to the central TP. These changes occurred both in the central TP and the Himalaya, indicating the influence of macroscale atmospheric circulation patterns on this extreme glacier melt. Plain Language Summary: The Tibetan Plateau (TP) and surroundings have the largest amount of ice outside of the Arctic and Antarctic. Extreme glacier melt not only accelerates glacier mass loss, but is also important for changing climates and triggering glacier‐related disasters. Here, results show that extreme weather conditions and anomalous glacier melt occurred in early spring 2022 on the central TP. High air temperature, low cloud fraction and precipitation were the main characteristics of extreme weather events. Accompanying this extreme event, anomalously high incoming shortwave radiation and sensible heat flux control extreme glacier melt. We found that extreme weather conditions occurred in both the central TP and the northern foothills of the Himalaya. Our results indicate that extreme weather events and glacier melt were linked to large‐scale atmospheric circulation and regional climate conditions. This study contributes to a deeper insight into the characteristics and processes of glacier melt. In the future, more efforts are needed to monitor glacier melt and identify the causes of extreme glacier melt on the TP, which holds significant scientific and practical importance. Key Points: Extreme weather conditions and glacier melt occurred in the early spring of 2022 on central Tibetan PlateauExtreme glacier melt was driven by anomalously high incoming shortwave radiation and sensible heat fluxA strong northward shift of westerly winds in early spring 2022 led to extreme weather conditions and glacier melt [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exploring the Venusian lower atmosphere is crucial for studying the atmospheric circulation, surface‐atmosphere interactions, and origin and evolution of the Venusian atmosphere and climate. In this study, we investigate the theoretical capabilities of a downward‐looking passive microwave sounder placed in low Venus orbit to measure the temperature, sulfur dioxide (SO2) and gaseous sulfuric acid (H2SO4(g)) profiles. A nonlinear iterative retrieval algorithm combining a radiative transfer (RT) model and an optimal‐estimation‐based inversion algorithm is established. With the RT model adapted to the Venusian atmosphere, simulations under different atmospheric conditions are performed to optimize the selection of frequency channels. The achievable altitude coverage, vertical resolution and corresponding expected precision of the temperature, SO2 and H2SO4(g) retrievals from the multi‐channel brightness temperature measurements are quantified via retrieval simulations. The temperature can be retrieved from the surface of Venus to an altitude of ∼61 km with a precision of 1–3.5 K and a vertical resolution of 6–15 km. A precision of 10%–35% is expected for SO2 in the ∼12–64 km altitude range and with a vertical resolution of 8–19 km. H2SO4(g) can be retrieved in the ∼36–54 km altitude range with a precision of 10%–30% and a vertical resolution of 6–13 km. Plain Language Summary: The hostile environment and thick sulfuric acid clouds make it difficult to measure the lower atmosphere of Venus. Although many attempts have been made, the existing measurements of the lower atmosphere have provided little information about the spatiotemporal distribution and variation in the temperature and sulfur compound profiles. This limits our understanding of the atmospheric circulation, surface‐atmosphere interactions, and origin and evolution of the Venusian atmosphere and climate. In this study, we investigate the theoretical capabilities of a passive microwave sounder placed in low Venus orbit to measure the temperature, sulfur dioxide (SO2) and gaseous sulfuric acid (H2SO4(g)) profiles. By model simulations, the frequency channel selection and performance simulation for the sounder are completed. Simulation results demonstrate that the sounder could provide the required high‐precision, high‐resolution and vertically resolved observations of the temperature, SO2 and H2SO4(g) in the Venusian lower atmosphere. Key Points: The ability of a microwave radiometer to measure the temperature, SO2 and H2SO4(g) profiles in the Venusian lower atmosphere is verifiedThe measurement channels of the radiometer are determined based on radiative transfer simulationsThe expected precision, vertical resolution and achievable altitude coverage are quantified via retrieval simulations [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The physiological response to increasing CO2 concentrations will lead to land surface warming through a redistribution of the energy balance. As the Amazon is one of the most plant‐rich regions, the increase in surface temperature, caused by plant CO2 physiological forcing, is particularly large compared to other regions. In this study, we analyze the outputs of the 11 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 to find out how CO2 physiological forcing amplifies Amazonian warming under elevated CO2 levels. With the CO2 concentration increase from 285 to 823 ppm, the Amazon temperature increased by 0.48 ± 0.42 K as a result of plant physiological forcing. Moreover, we assess the contributions of each climate feedback to the surface warming due to physiological forcing by quantifying climate feedbacks based on radiative kernels. Lapse rate feedback and cloud feedback, analyzed as the primary contributors, accounted for 53% and 37% of Amazon warming, respectively. The warming contributions of these two feedbacks also exhibit a significant spread, which contributes to the predictive uncertainty. The surface warming due to reduced evapotranspiration is larger than the upper tropospheric warming in the Amazon, resulting in surface warming by lapse rate feedback. In addition, cloud cover in the Amazon region decreases due to the reduced evapotranspiration. Decreased cloud cover amplifies surface warming through the shortwave cloud feedback. Furthermore, differences in circulation and local convection caused by physiological effect contribute to the inter‐model spread of the cloud feedback. Plain Language Summary: As CO2 increase in the atmosphere, plants react to it by adjusting their physiological processes. In the future climate, plants respond to increasing CO2 by closing their stomata to reduce transpiration, which leads to an increase in surface temperature. The decrease in evapotranspiration and increase in surface temperature are stronger in the Amazon than in other regions. In this study, we use Earth system model simulations to quantify which climate feedbacks amplify the physiologically driven Amazon warming and assess the warming contributions of each climate feedback. As a result, the lapse rate and cloud feedbacks have larger contributions to Amazon warming with greater uncertainty. Bottom‐heavy warming due to the plant's responses makes the large contribution of lapse rate feedback, with the uncertainties within the models coming from the difference in surface evapotranspiration changes. The reduction of atmospheric water vapor and changes in atmospheric circulation due to the plant's responses produce a reduction in clouds across the Amazon region, making the contribution of cloud feedback significant. Differences in cloud feedback between models are determined by how much surface evapotranspiration and accompanying deep convection changes. Key Points: Plant's physiological responses to the elevated CO2 reduce evapotranspiration and induce surface warming, especially in the Amazon regionLapse rate feedback and cloud feedback mainly amplify the Amazon warming by CO2 physiological forcingNot only evapotranspiration changes but also physiologically driven circulation changes determine the inter‐model spread of Amazonian warming [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Here we explore the relative contribution of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to midlatitude subseasonal predictive skill of upper atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific, using an inherently interpretable neural network applied to pre‐industrial control runs of the Community Earth System Model version 2. We find that this interpretable network generally favors the state of ENSO, rather than the MJO, to make correct predictions on a range of subseasonal lead times and predictand averaging windows. Moreover, the predictability of positive circulation anomalies over the North Pacific is comparatively lower than that of their negative counterparts, especially evident when the ENSO state is important. However, when ENSO is in a neutral state, our findings indicate that the MJO provides some predictive information, particularly for positive anomalies. We identify three distinct evolutions of these MJO states, offering fresh insights into opportune forecasting windows for MJO teleconnections. Plain Language Summary: Weather is hard to predict with longer forecast leads. Here, we use a data‐driven statistical model to dissect tropical sources of predictability of North Pacific upper‐level variability on subseasonal (2 weeks to 2 months) timescales. This model was constructed so that we can identify the relative contributions of two tropical phenomena important for predictability on these timescales. Namely, we use the Madden‐Jullian Oscillation (MJO) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as predictor variables, two phenomena that provide a teleconnecting signal from the tropics to North Pacific variability. We find that the ENSO signal alone consistently provides more forecast predictability than the MJO. However, when ENSO is not active, the MJO provides distinct windows of forecast opportunity, particularly for anomalously anticyclonic events. We identify three evolutions of the MJO which offer new insights into forecasting weather at long forecast leads. Key Points: An interpretable neural network is used to decompose contributions of MJO and ENSO to North Pacific subseasonal circulation predictabilityENSO alone is overall more useful than the MJO for subseasonal predictions across various lead times and predictand averaging windowsUnique MJO events, that provide enhanced subseasonal predictability during ENSO neutral conditions, are identified [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal El Niño is an extreme situation of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with sea surface temperature warming confined in the far‐eastern equatorial Pacific. Some coastal El Niños evolve into a basin scale El Niño, and some don't, implying a diversity in ENSO evolutions after a coastal El Niño event. In this study, the coastal El Niños in 2017 and 2023 are selected to examine their subsequent evolution. Both coastal El Niños developed after a La Niña, with the former followed by a La Niña and the latter by a basin‐scale El Niño. The cold (warm) subsurface temperatures in 2017 (2023) were key factors leading to the divergent ENSO evolution. Convection over the western tropical Pacific and the atmospheric circulation anomalies across the equatorial Pacific also contributed to the differences. Model predictions suggest that differences in ENSO evolution after a coastal El Niño are associated with differences in ENSO predictability. Plain Language Summary: Compared with the global impact of basin‐scale El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, coastal El Niño impacts are mainly focused along the South American coast. They are less studied, especially, in terms of temporal evolution and longer‐term development. Here, we examine the divergent evolution of ENSO conditions in the tropical Pacific after the coastal El Niños in 2017 and 2023. This subsequent divergent evolution of these events was associated with both preceding subsurface ocean heat content levels, convection over the western tropical Pacific, and concurrent atmospheric circulation. Specifically, preceding subsurface ocean cooling combined with low‐level easterly wind anomalies led to the growth of La Niña after the coastal El Niño in 2017, while strong preceding subsurface ocean warming led to the growth of El Niño after the coastal El Niño in 2023. These differences in the evolution of tropical Pacific Ocean conditions after a coastal El Niño were associated with different levels of ENSO predictability. Key Points: The coastal El Niño in 2017 was followed by a La Niña, while the coastal El Niño in 2023 evolved into a basin‐scale El NiñoSubsurface ocean heat content levels, western Pacific convection, and off‐equatorial circulation differences affect El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) evolutionDivergent evolution of conditions in the tropical Pacific after a coastal El Niño is associated with differences in ENSO predictability [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The higher‐order turbulence scheme, Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals (CLUBB), is known for effectively simulating the transition from cumulus to stratocumulus clouds within leading atmospheric climate models. This study investigates an underexplored aspect of CLUBB: its capacity to simulate near‐surface winds and the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL), with a particular focus on its coupling with surface momentum flux. Using the GFDL atmospheric climate model (AM4), we examine two distinct coupling strategies, distinguished by their handling of surface momentum flux during the CLUBB's stability‐driven substepping performed at each atmospheric time step. The static coupling maintains a constant surface momentum flux, while the dynamic coupling adjusts the surface momentum flux at each CLUBB substep based on the CLUBB‐computed zonal and meridional wind speed tendencies. Our 30‐year present‐day climate simulations (1980–2010) show that static coupling overestimates 10‐m wind speeds compared to both control AM4 simulations and reanalysis, particularly over the Southern Ocean (SO) and other midlatitude ocean regions. Conversely, dynamic coupling corrects the static coupling 10‐m winds biases in the midlatitude regions, resulting in CLUBB simulations achieving there an excellent agreement with AM4 simulations. Furthermore, analysis of PBL vertical profiles over the SO reveals that dynamic coupling reduces downward momentum transport, consistent with the found wind‐speed reductions. Instead, near the tropics, dynamic coupling results in minimal changes in near‐surface wind speeds and associated turbulent momentum transport structure. Notably, the wind turning angle serves as a valuable qualitative metric for assessing the impact of changes in surface momentum flux representation on global circulation patterns. Plain Language Summary: The Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals (CLUBB) scheme offers a promising way to model the complexities of cloud behavior, but its impact on winds and global circulation has been less explored. In our study, we investigate how different ways of representing the complex coupling between surface drag and the lowest kilometer of the Earth's atmosphere affect global wind speeds and circulation. We specifically examine two distinct approaches: a static approach, which feeds a constant surface drag to CLUBB, and a dynamic approach, which adjusts the surface drag based on the winds updates computed by CLUBB. Over a present‐day climate, we find that static coupling tends to produce excessively large wind speeds in certain regions, like the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Instead, dynamic coupling produces excellent near‐surface wind speeds in these regions, and also over the rest of the globe. Moreover, we discover that dynamic coupling reduces the downward turbulent transport of momentum, highlighting the enhancements in near‐surface wind speeds found with this approach are physically consistent. Lastly, we use the change in wind direction with height to qualitatively evaluate how the two coupling methods affect global circulation patterns. Key Points: Dynamic coupling between Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals (CLUBB) and surface momentum flux enhances global winds climate simulations bringing CLUBB in line with control atmospheric climate modelIn midlatitude regions, the dynamic coupling enhances the boundary‐layer momentum transport compared to the static couplingThe wind turning angle turns out a useful qualitative metric, linking changes in surface momentum flux to the changes in global circulation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earth system models currently struggle to account for the complex effects that land surface heterogeneity can have on land‐atmosphere interactions. There have been attempts to include the impact of this heterogeneity on the atmosphere, but they ignore the development of coherent circulations that can be driven by spatial differential surface heating. A wealth of literature, particularly large‐eddy simulation (LES) based studies, shows that these circulations have significant impacts on the development and organization of clouds. In this work, we describe a two‐column model with a parameterized circulation driven by atmospheric virtual potential temperature profiles, differences in near surface temperature between the two columns, patterns of surface heterogeneity, and the mean background wind. Key aspects of the proposed model structure are compared with LES output, and the model is then implemented between two otherwise independent single column models. While some avenues for improvement exist, when the circulations are parameterized, we see increased cloud development and realistic changes to the mean profiles of temperature and moisture. The proposed model qualitatively matches expectations from the literature and LES, and points to the potential success of its future implementation in coarse grid models. Plain Language Summary: This work addresses the challenge of incorporating land surface heterogeneity into earth system models to better understand land‐atmosphere interactions. Current models struggle to account for the complex effects of subgrid land surface heterogeneity on these interactions, especially when a warmer region near a cooler region can cause a circulation to occur. The study proposes a two‐column model that includes a parameterized circulation driven by vertical temperature profiles, surface temperature differences, surface heterogeneity patterns, and the background wind. The model is compared to high resolution large‐eddy simulation (LES) output for 3 days in the Southern Great Plains. The results show that the model qualitatively reproduces patterns observed in LES and the existing literature, primarily that cloud production increases and concentrates over warmer surface areas. The model's success suggests its potential implementation in coarse grid models to explore regional and global atmospheric impacts of subgrid land surface heterogeneity. Additionally, the similarities between land surface heterogeneity circulations and other thermally driven circulations indicate potential applicability in subgrid‐scale parameterization of sea and lake breezes. While limitations and opportunities for improvement exist, overall this work represents a promising step toward understanding the impacts of subgrid heterogeneity on cloud production and atmospheric processes in earth system models. Key Points: A parameterized circulation between two otherwise independent columns is described and evaluated for three simulation daysLarge‐eddy simulations (LES) show substantial agreement with the overall circulation model structure proposedWhen implemented, the parameterized circulation yields similar changes in the atmospheric profiles and cloud production to LES [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stable water isotopes in inland Antarctic ice cores are powerful paleoclimate proxies; however, their relationship with dynamical atmospheric circulations remains controversial. Using a water isotope climate model (MIROC5‐iso), we assessed the influence of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ∼21,000 years ago) sea surface temperatures (SST) and sea ice (SIC) on Antarctic precipitation isotopes (δ18Op) through atmospheric circulation. The results revealed that the synoptic circulation mostly maintained southward moisture transport, reaching inland Antarctica. The steepened meridional SST gradient in the mid‐latitudes increased δ18Op in inland Antarctica with the enhanced baroclinic instability and synoptic moisture transport. In contrast, expanded SIC distribution decreased δ18Op over Antarctica by enhanced preferential removal of heavy isotopes during vapor transport due to the increased transport distance and enhanced surface cooling. These findings propose to use Antarctic ice cores to describe the southern hemisphere atmospheric circulation, represented by the westerly jets, during the LGM and other past climates. Plain Language Summary: Stable water isotopes are widely used to reconstruct past variations of Earth's climate, such as the temperature in Antarctica during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) ∼21,000 years ago. This is an essential period for the climate community, given the order of magnitude of the temperature change between the LGM and today, which is similar to that of today's warming. However, the relationship between stable water isotopes and temperature is still subject to debate because of the influence of other climatic factors. Using an isotope‐enabled climate model, we found that the isotopic composition of Antarctic precipitation was not simply associated with the high and low average Antarctic temperature, but was substantially influenced by changes in dynamical atmospheric circulation related to sea surface temperature and sea ice expansion. We also suggest that representation of the past atmospheric circulations, such as westerly jets, can be constrained using water isotopic signals in Antarctic ice cores. Key Points: Synoptic circulations sustained the moisture transport toward inland AntarcticaMeridional sea surface temperature gradient enhanced moisture and heavy isotope precipitations on Antarctica, unlike sea ice expansionAntarctic ice core isotopes may refine southern hemisphere atmospheric circulations during the last glacial maximum [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study unravels the characteristics, mechanisms, and predictability of four consecutive record‐breaking heatwaves hitting North China in June and July 2023. The first three heatwaves primarily influenced the northern part of North China and were accompanied by consistent anticyclonic anomalies in the upper troposphere. The anomalous anticyclone was caused by the British–Baikal corridor teleconnection along the polar front jet, particularly during the second heatwave. In contrast, the fourth heatwave was induced by a distinct low‐pressure system, attributed to the Silk Road pattern along the subtropical jet. The presence of this low‐pressure system and its interaction with atmospheric rivers and local topography led to the foehn wind, further contributing to the rise in surface temperatures. Sub‐seasonal to seasonal models can effectively predict the occurrence of all heatwaves 2–5 days in advance despite underestimating the intensity. However, models exhibit limitations in providing reliable predictions when the lead time exceeds 2 weeks. Plain Language Summary: In the summer of 2023, North China experienced four consecutive extreme high‐temperature events, which are called heatwaves. This study investigates the main factors that cause the four events and shows how well the operational numerical models can predict the heatwaves. The first three heatwaves shared similar circulation, with high‐pressure systems controlling North China. This local circulation anomaly was related to an upstream quasi‐stationary wave train along the polar front jet. The fourth heatwave was associated with a low‐pressure system over North China and an upstream quasi‐stationary wave train along the subtropical jet. Moreover, predictions from operational models demonstrate their capability to forecast the occurrence of high temperatures 2–5 days ahead, with an underestimation in the intensity. However, models are not reliable when it comes to predicting heatwaves 2 weeks in advance. Key Points: North China witnessed record‐breaking heatwaves in June and July 2023, consisting of four sequential synoptic‐scale eventsThe first three and the last heatwaves are controlled by distinct local circulations induced by atmospheric wave trains across EurasiaS2S models capture the heatwave occurrences 2–5 days in advance, but predictive skill notably diminishes beyond 2 weeks [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation projections in transient climate change scenarios have been extensively studied over multiple climate model generations. Although these simulations have also been used to make projections at specific Global Warming Levels (GWLs), dedicated simulations are more appropriate to study changes in a stabilizing climate. Here, we analyze precipitation projections in six multi‐century experiments with fixed atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, conducted with the UK Earth System Model and which span a range of GWLs between 1.5 and 5°C of warming. Regions are identified where the sign of precipitation trends in high‐emission transient projections is reversed in the stabilization experiments. For example, stabilization reverses a summertime precipitation decline across Europe. This precipitation recovery occurs concurrently with changes in the pattern of Atlantic sea surface temperature trends due to a slow recovery of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in the stabilization experiments, along with changes in humidity and atmospheric circulation. Plain Language Summary: Climate model projections consistently predict that summer precipitation over Europe is expected to decline in the future as global temperatures rise under continued global warming. In our study, we use new climate model simulations that simulate a world where atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are no longer increasing and the rise in global temperatures has slowed down. We show that the summer rainfall decline across Europe can, to some extent, be reversed if global temperatures were to stabilize. This has important implications for adaptation and planning decisions, particularly in so‐called climate change "hot‐spots" such as the Mediterranean. Key Points: Climate stabilization experiments show significant differences in projected precipitation compared to high‐emission transient scenariosNorthern European and Mediterranean projected summer drying is partially reversedEuropean summer precipitation changes are consistent with the atmospheric response to Atlantic SST changes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The difference in observed atmospheric anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere winter between 2021–22 and 2020–21 La Niña years indicated a tripole pattern consisting of a Japan cyclone, a Bering Sea anticyclone, and a cyclone over the North American continent. This feature, however, was not replicated in the North American Multi‐Model Ensemble (NMME) forecasts. A set of model sensitivity experiments was performed to better understand the cause of this discrepancy. The results revealed the possible role of the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, particularly over the Indian Ocean, on the observed circulation differences that was further modulated by internal atmospheric variability. The failure in predicting circulation changes in NMME was next attributed to the errors in SST predictions over the Indian Ocean and highlights the need for improvements in SST forecasts over this region. Plain Language Summary: The tropical SST anomalies associated with the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are known to influence the global atmospheric circulation and are the major source of skill in U.S. seasonal predictions. As the cold phase of ENSO, La Niña features below‐normal SST anomalies and suppressed convection over the equatorial central and eastern Pacific. Such a tropical heating distribution favors the formation of the atmospheric circulation pattern that has a roughly opposite effect on U.S. surface climate compared to El Niño, the warm phase of ENSO, although the effect is not strictly symmetric. For the recent two La Niña boreal winters of 2020–21 and 2021–22, the observed circulation patterns differed, but dynamical seasonal prediction failed to replicate this feature. Understanding the cause for the discrepancy of circulation changes between prediction and observations is of fundamental importance for the improvement of seasonal forecasts. Toward this, we designed numerical experiments that are forced with observed and predicted SST anomalies over different ocean basins. The results show that it is the errors in SST prediction over the Indian Ocean that contributed to the failure in the prediction of circulation changes, highlighting the importance of skillful prediction of SST over this region. Key Points: The difference in observed atmospheric anomalies for 2022 versus 2021 La Niña boreal winters featured a Northern Hemisphere tripole patternIndian Ocean SST contributed to the formation of observed tripole pattern, with internal atmospheric variability modulating its magnitudeErrors in SST predictions over the Indian Ocean led to the failure in predictions of the circulation changes in NMME forecasts [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mid‐tropospheric deep depressions in summer over the North Atlantic are shown to have strongly increased in the eastern and strongly decreased in the western North Atlantic region. This evolution is linked to a change in baroclinicity in the west of the North Atlantic ocean and over the North American coast, likely due to the increased surface temperature there. Deep depressions in the Eastern North Atlantic are linked to a temperature pattern typical of extreme heat events in the region. The same analysis is applied to a sample of CMIP6 model outputs, and no such trends are found. This study suggests a link between the observed increase of summer extreme heat events in the region and the increase of the number of Atlantic depressions. The failure of CMIP6 models to reproduce these events can consequently also reside in an incorrect reproduction of this specific feature of midlatitude atmospheric dynamics. Plain Language Summary: Extreme temperatures events in Western Europe have been rising fast, and current global climate models are not able to reproduce this excess. There are different hypotheses to explain this discrepancy. One is that the large‐scale atmospheric dynamics, responsible for the local weather, is not correctly represented by the models: indeed, the frequency and amplitude of some specific weather phenomena have been shown to be insufficiently reproduced, especially in summer. Here, we study one such phenomenon, namely the transient deep depressions, or extratropical cyclones, that travel across the Atlantic basin. A significant large increase of the number of these events is found in summer in the region of the North Atlantic off the western European coast. Depressions in that region are accompanied by high temperatures in continental western Europe. An ensemble of state of the art climate models are also analyzed and none of them is able to correctly reproduce the frequency of deep depressions nor their large trend, which suggests a common origin with the insufficient prediction of western European extreme heat events. Great caution should be used when analyzing climate change predictions in the region, and even more so when studying changes in complex dynamical phenomena. Key Points: Deep depression occurrences have significantly increased over the eastern side, and decreased over the western side of the North AtlanticDeep depressions are linked to high surface temperature patterns in western continental Europe but have little impact on the mean warmingGlobal Climate Models fail to reproduce the observed trends in deep depressions correctly [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earth system models suffer from various structural and parametric errors in their representation of nonlinear, multi‐scale processes, leading to uncertainties in their long‐term projections. The effects of many of these errors (particularly those due to fast physics) can be quantified in short‐term simulations, for example, as differences between the predicted and observed states (analysis increments). With the increase in the availability of high‐quality observations and simulations, learning nudging from these increments to correct model errors has become an active research area. However, most studies focus on using neural networks, which while powerful, are hard to interpret, are data‐hungry, and poorly generalize out‐of‐distribution. Here, we show the capabilities of Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation (MEDIDA), a general, data‐efficient framework that uses sparsity‐promoting equation‐discovery techniques to learn model errors from analysis increments. Using two‐layer quasi‐geostrophic turbulence as the test case, MEDIDA is shown to successfully discover various linear and nonlinear structural/parametric errors when full observations are available. Discovery from spatially sparse observations is found to require highly accurate interpolation schemes. While NNs have shown success as interpolators in recent studies, here, they are found inadequate due to their inability to accurately represent small scales, a phenomenon known as spectral bias. We show that a general remedy, adding a random Fourier feature layer to the NN, resolves this issue enabling MEDIDA to successfully discover model errors from sparse observations. These promising results suggest that with further development, MEDIDA could be scaled up to models of the Earth system and real observations. Plain Language Summary: Numerical models are used to predict the Earth system, for example, from daily weather to the next‐century climate. These models have been developed and validated against observations over decades, however, they still have shortcomings (errors) in their representations of many complex processes, particularly those that are nonlinear and span many scales in time and space. The rapid improvements in the quality and quantity of observational data from the Earth system and advances in machine learning (ML) algorithms provide an opportunity to try to reduce these errors. However, the challenge is that many ML methods require a lot of training data, and it is also often difficult to explain how they are reducing the error. Here, we show the capabilities of a framework called MEDIDA (Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation), which uses a class of ML methods that provide closed‐form (thus interpretable) equations for what they are learning from the differences between observations and model predictions. We show the success of MEDIDA when applied to a model of atmospheric turbulent circulation. Even when observations are only sparsely (not at every location) available, we show that MEDIDA works accurately once we leverage more recent advances in ML. Key Points: Model error discovery with interpretability and data assimilation is scaled up to geostrophic turbulence and sparse observationsNaive use of neural nets (NNs) as interpolator does not capture small scales due to spectral bias, failing discoveries of closed‐form errorsReducing this bias using random Fourier features enables NNs to represent the full range of scales, leading to successful error discoveries [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sulfur‐based stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI) can cool the climate, but also heats the tropical lower stratosphere if done with injections at low latitudes. We explore the role of this heating in the climate response to SAI, by using mechanistic experiments that remove the effects of longwave absorption of sulfate aerosols above the tropopause. If longwave absorption by stratospheric aerosols is disabled, the heating of the tropical tropopause and most of the related side effects are strongly alleviated and the cooling per Tg‐S injected is 40% bigger. Such side‐effects include the poleward expansion of eddy‐driven jets, acceleration of the stratospheric residual circulation, and delay of Antarctic ozone recovery. Our results add to other recent findings on SAI side effects and demonstrate that SAI scenarios with low‐latitude injections of absorptive materials may result in atmospheric effects and regional climate changes that are comparable to those produced by the CO2 warming signal. Plain Language Summary: We explore the effects of the injection of sulfur into the tropical stratosphere to lower global average temperatures from those projected under a high‐emission greenhouse gas scenario to the levels of a mid‐emission scenario. We found that some detrimental effects of this injection are of a similar magnitude to those from climate change itself in some regions. This includes a strong warming 15 km above the tropics, which alters large‐scale weather patterns in the atmosphere. In comparison to the mid‐emission scenario, we find enhanced surface warming in the polar regions and modification in regional precipitation patterns over land, therefore not completely alleviating the warming of the high‐emission scenario in high northern latitudes. We show that the tropical stratospheric heating is responsible for a large portion of these side effects on tropospheric climate. Key Points: Many side effects of sulfur‐based stratospheric aerosol intervention are caused by heating of the tropical lower stratosphereSome regional patterns of change tied to atmospheric circulation can be of the same magnitude as those that are CO2‐drivenThe absorptivity of the aerosol particles increases their lifetime but decreases their cooling efficiency per Tg‐S per year by 40% [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Airborne mineral dust is sensitive to climatic changes, but its response to orbital forcing is still not fully understood. Here, we present a reconstruction of dust input to the Subarctic Pacific Ocean covering the past 190 kyr. The dust composition record is indicative of source moisture conditions, which were dominated by precessional variations. In contrast, the dust flux record is dominated by obliquity variations and displays an out‐of‐phase relationship with a dust record from the mid‐latitude North Pacific Ocean. Climate model simulations suggest precession likely drove changes in the aridity and extent of dust source regions. Additionally, the obliquity variations in dust flux can be explained by meridional shifts in the North Pacific westerly jet, driven by changes in the meridional atmospheric temperature gradient. Overall, our findings suggest that North Pacific dust input was primarily modulated by orbital‐controlled source aridity and the strength and position of the westerly winds. Plain Language Summary: Glacial‐interglacial climate variations can affect dust transport to the ocean, but the controls on past dust fluxes to the North Pacific Ocean remain poorly constrained. This region is important because fertilization of phytoplankton growth by dust‐borne iron may have contributed to lower glacial atmospheric CO2, and dust records could also constrain the past dynamics of the North Pacific westerly winds. Here, we highlight the dominance of obliquity cycles in modulating latitudinal shifts of the westerly winds and, in turn, dust inputs. In contrast, precession regulates the aridity of the dust source regions, which determines both dust emission rates and composition. Such orbital‐scale fluctuations in the dust flux could influence ocean‐atmosphere interactions in the middle and high northern latitudes, with implications for global atmospheric circulation and ocean carbon storage. Key Points: Moisture availability in Asian dust source regions to the North Pacific Ocean were controlled by precessionNorth Pacific dust flux reveals dominant obliquity variations, but is out‐of‐phase at different latitudesThe westerlies in the Northern Hemisphere were primarily modulated by obliquity cycles in the late Pleistocene [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tibetan Plateau (TP) snow cover is featured by sub‐seasonal changes, affecting weather and climate in surrounding and downstream areas. Previous studies emphasize the effect of background atmospheric circulation on rapid changes of TP snow cover as a whole. However, spatial discrepant changes of snow cover over the TP with complex topography and uneven snowfall remain unaddressed. Our research indicates that snow cover fraction dominates the rapid changes of surface albedo across the TP, and snow depth also significantly influences surface albedo changes through modulating snow albedo in central and eastern TP with shallow snow. However, the excessive snow amount and empirical snow cover fraction schemes introduce spatially divergent biases of surface albedo changes in simulations. Our research highlights the instant response of TP surface albedo to both snow coverage and depth in snow season, and provides a promising perspective for improving TP snow and surface albedo simulations. Plain Language Summary: Tibetan Plateau (TP) snow cover is characterized not only by obvious seasonal changes, but also by rapid sub‐seasonal changes, which has a significant impact on the weather and climate of the downstream areas by affecting the surface albedo over the TP. Previous studies have generally concluded that the background atmospheric circulation dominates rapid changes of overall TP snow cover. However, rapid changes of snow cover exhibit spatial discrepancies over the TP with complex topography and uneven snowfall. Our study finds that snow coverage and depth both contribute to rapid changes of surface albedo and energy budget over the TP, which further lead to rapid changes of snow cover. However, current numerical models tend to overestimate the snow and fail to simulate spatial different changes of snow coverage and depth, leading to spatially divergent simulation biases in surface albedo, surface energy balance and local atmospheric circulation over the TP. Therefore, there is an urgent need to improve the snow parameterization in models to enhance the intra‐seasonal simulation of snow cover and surface albedo over the TP. Key Points: Observed surface albedo over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has significant weekly scale fluctuations during winterSnow cover fraction and snow depth jointly dominate observed rapid changes of surface albedo over the TPExcessive snow amount and empirical snow cover fraction schemes lead to spatially divergent bias of surface albedo change [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wind energy resource assessment typically requires numerical modeling at fine resolutions, which is computationally expensive for multi‐year timescales. Increasingly, unsupervised machine learning techniques are used to identify representative weather patterns that can help simulate long‐term behavior. Here we develop a novel wind energy workflow that combines the weather patterns from unsupervised clustering with a numerical weather prediction model (WRF) to obtain efficient long‐term predictions of wind farm power and downstream wakes, which provide a good approximation to full WRF simulations at vastly reduced computational cost. We use ERA5 reanalysis data and compare clustering on low altitude pressure and wind velocity, a more relevant variable for wind resource assessment. We also compare varying domain sizes for the clustering. A WRF simulation is run at each cluster center and the results aggregated into a long‐term prediction using a novel post‐processing technique. We consider two case study regions and show that our long‐term predictions achieve good agreement with a year of WRF simulations in 2% of the computational time. Moreover, clustering over a Europe‐wide domain produces good agreement for predicting wind farm power output, but clustering over smaller domains is required for downstream wake predictions which agree with the year of WRF simulations. Our approach facilitates multi‐year predictions of power output and downstream farm wakes, by providing a fast, reliable, and flexible methodology applicable to any global region. Moreover, this constitutes the first tool to help mitigate effects of wind energy loss downstream of wind farms. Plain Language Summary: With the need to transition to renewable energy, wind energy is becoming increasingly important. However, the build‐out of wind farms must be carefully planned, not least because entire wind farms extracting energy from the atmosphere cause large scale wind velocity deficits downstream. Wind energy resource assessment typically relies on numerical models, but these are computationally expensive to run for the multi‐year predictions required for sustainable development. It is therefore common to use a smaller set of weather conditions that are representative of a longer period. Here, we develop such a workflow based on identifying characteristic weather patterns using a clustering technique from the machine learning literature. Based on the characteristic patterns identified, we perform a small number of short numerical model experiments, one for each weather pattern. By applying a novel post‐processing technique to combine the outputs from these experiments, we obtain predictions of wind farm power and downstream wakes over the original multi‐year period, using just 2% of the computation time required by a purely numerical modeling approach. Our workflow thus constitutes a fast, reliable, and flexible methodology that is applicable to any global region, which can be used for the sustainable development of wind energy. Key Points: Fast, reliable and flexible method for long‐term wind energy resource assessment using only six short‐term simulationsEvaluation of suitable variables and domain sizes for deriving weather patternsWeather prediction model is combined with clustering method for energy prediction [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric mineral dust is a poorly constrained yet extremely important component of the climate system. Provenance studies from geologic dust archives are crucial to understand the drivers of the dust cycle over long time scales. Our multi‐technique provenance analysis of a rare Paleogene (35–27 Ma) eolian dust sequence from Ulantatal, ∼400 km northwest of the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP), shows that Paleogene dust transporting winds generally varied between northwesterly and westerly, the same as those in the late Neogene‐Quaternary bipolar icehouse. We propose that, as today, westerly wind circulation patterns would have been modulated by an Arctic Oscillation (AO)‐like situation, and that the warm Eocene favored a long‐term negative phase of AO, leading to meridional westerly circulation and the dominance of a northwesterly dust transport pathway. After the Eocene‐Oligocene transition (EOT), long‐term positive phase of AO‐like conditions initiated, leading to stronger and more zonal westerlies. The Siberian High (SH) also formed or strengthened at the EOT and started to control dust storm activity along the northwesterly transport pathway. We argue that increased Paleogene Northern Hemisphere (NH) ice volume was the ultimate driver of this modern‐type dust transport regime in the Ulantatal region, possibly also controlling initial Ulantatal dust sequence formation via the development of the SH and modern‐type eolian regime. The similarity between the Ulantatal and late Neogene northern CLP dust provenance signals suggests that the increased NH ice volume, via its control on the northwesterly dust transport, could have promoted increased loess formation also in the late Miocene. Plain Language Summary: Understanding the effects and responses of atmospheric mineral dust to climate changes in the geologic past is crucial for predicting future scenarios. Analysis of the source of dust deposited 35–27 million years ago in Ulantatal, Inner Mongolia, China reveals that the Central‐East Asian atmospheric circulation during this time interval was similar to that of today. Specifically, dust transport was dominated by northwesterly and westerly winds despite a significantly warmer global climate. We also propose that Arctic Oscillation (AO)‐type conditions, stemming from the temperature difference between the high and low latitudes, modulated planetary westerly winds during this period. Our results suggest that during warmer phases, a negative AO type dominated and resulted in wave‐like westerly wind patterns and a northwesterly dust transport pathway to Ulantatal. During cooler phases, the westerly circulation became stronger and more zonal. The Siberian High pressure system was possibly strengthened during increased Northern Hemisphere (NH) ice volume and further affected northwesterly dust transport. Our findings suggest that NH ice volume increase was possibly also responsible for the formation of the Ulantatal dust sequence itself. Our results imply that even under significantly warmer conditions than today, polar ice affects the long‐term dustiness in this highly populated region. Key Points: The provenance of a Paleogene (35–27 Ma) eolian dust sequence in Ulantatal, Inner Mongolia, China, reveals a modern‐type eolian regimeGlobal cooling and possibly expansion of Northern Hemisphere ice volume modulated the dust provenance by strengthening the Siberian HighLong‐term negative (positive) phase of Arctic Oscillation‐like conditions were favored in the warmhouse Eocene (coolhouse Oligocene) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of mid‐Pliocene boundary conditions on Afro‐Asian summer monsoon (AfroASM) rainfall is examined using the fully coupled Earth System Model EC‐Earth3‐LR. Our focus lies on the effects of varying CO2 concentration, diminished ice sheets and vegetation dynamics. We find that the enhanced AfroASM rainfall is predominantly caused by the "warmer‐gets‐wetter" mechanism due to elevated CO2 levels. Additionally, the ice sheet, similar in size to that of the mid‐Pliocene era, creates several indirect effects. These include sea ice‐albedo feedback and inter‐hemispheric atmosphere energy transport. Such influences result in the southward shift of Hadley circulation and formation of Pacific‐Japan pattern, leading to reduced rainfall in North African and South Asian monsoon regions but increased rainfall in East Asian monsoon region. Interestingly, while dynamic vegetation feedback has a minimal direct effect on AfroASM rainfall, it significantly influences rainfall in the mid‐high latitudes of the North Hemisphere by enhancing water vapor feedback. Plain Language Summary: The mid‐Pliocene (3.3–3.0 Ma) was a pre‐Quaternary warming period with similar high CO2 level as we have today. The period is often considered as an analog for future greenhouse driven climate projections. Previous studies indicate that the Afro‐Asian summer monsoon (AfroASM) rainfall was more abundant then. However, the underlying mechanisms of relative contributions of boundary conditions on increased AfroASM rainfall remains to be clarified. Here, we use an Earth System Model, performed nine simulations to study the separate effects of CO2 level, ice sheets size, and vegetation dynamics on AfroASM rainfall patterns during the mid‐Pliocene. We found that (a) A rise in CO2 concentration during the mid‐Pliocene enhanced AfroASM rainfall through "warmer‐gets‐wetter" mechanism. (b) The dynamics of the ice sheet during this period, including both melting and distribution changes, contributed to more pronounced warming in South Hemisphere than the north due to ice‐albedo feedback. This change affected global atmospheric circulation, leading to decreased rainfall in North Africa and South Asia, but increased rainfall in East Asia. (c) We observed that during the mid‐Pliocene, vegetation expanded and move further north in the North Hemisphere. This increases summer rainfall at Northern mid‐high latitudes through local water vapor feedback. Key Points: Elevated CO2 levels during mid‐Pliocene increase Afro‐Asian summer monsoon rainfall mainly due to the "warmer‐gets‐wetter" mechanismMid‐Pliocene ice sheets changes favor to reduce North African/South Asian monsoon rainfall and increase East Asian monsoon rainfallDynamic vegetation feedback has less effect on Afro‐Asian monsoon, but more on mid‐high latitudes rainfall [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The surface air temperature (SAT) over the Sahara Desert has increased at a much faster rate than average tropical land in recent decades. This study examines the relative roles of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing and sea surface temperature (SST) change in the observed Saharan temperature increase during boreal warm season from 1979 to 2020 using atmospheric general circulation model simulations. It is found that the SST forcing dominates the observed Saharan warming. Further analysis shows that the warming ocean forces the Saharan SAT increase by moving more energy to the Sahara Desert, while the water vapor feedback plays a secondary role. The reason for the stronger Saharan warming than the average tropical land given the same SST forcing is also explored. We found that the largest contributor to the warming contrast is the lapse‐rate feedback, which is attributable to the difference in the vertical warming profile. Plain Language Summary: Sahara Desert has experienced a stronger warming than the tropical land on average since 1979. Debates continue on whether the amplified Saharan warming is a response to the remote sea surface temperature (SST) change or the radiative forcing brought about by the increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas. In this study, we quantify the relative contributions of these two forcing agents to the observed Saharan temperature increase. It is found that the observed Saharan warming is largely controlled by the remote SST forcing. As the ocean warms up, it acts to transport more energy to the Sahara Desert and warms the surface. The warming contrast between the Sahara Desert and the average tropical land is found to be dominated by the lapse‐rate feedback (LR), which favors the Saharan warming but suppresses the average tropical land warming. The difference in LR is a result of the different vertical warming structure over the Sahara Desert and average tropical land. Key Points: The observed Saharan warming since 1979 is largely a result of the sea surface temperature (SST) change rather than direct anthropogenic greenhouse gas radiative forcingThe dominant factor driving Saharan warming is the anomalous atmospheric energy transport from the warming oceanLapse rate and water vapor feedbacks both amplify Saharan warming relative to the average tropical land in response to the SST forcing [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has been reported that the sea level falls in the tropical Southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) from the 1960s to the early 2000s. However, a rising trend of 4.05 ± 0.56 cm/decade has occurred during the recent two decades with our analysis showing that manometric sea level contributes 41% to this sea level rise. 30% of this rise is due to steric sea level (SSL) change in the upper 2,000 m with SSL rise in the upper 300 m of secondary importance. Conversely, thermal expansion below the thermocline (300–2,000 m), likely caused by water mass spread from the Southern Ocean, induces major contribution to SSL changes. Compared to existing studies demonstrating the contribution of thermal variations above the thermocline to sea level variability in the tropical SWIO, this study emphasizes the importance of ocean mass and deeper ocean changes in a warming climate. Plain Language Summary: Global ocean sea level change is spatially and temporally nonuniform due to oceanic and atmospheric dynamics. The tropical Southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) experienced a sea level fall from the 1960s to the early 2000s. However, a rapid sea level rise has occurred over the last two decades in the tropical SWIO that is faster than the global average. The ocean mass increase due to extra water input leads to an essential impact on sea level rise in the tropical SWIO. Compared to previous studies demonstrating the effect of thermal expansion in the upper 300 m, this study shows larger contributions from deeper ocean (300–2,000 m) warming over the past two decades. Overall, this study highlights the importance of ocean mass and deeper water thermal structure in regulating tropical SWIO sea level rise in a changing climate, as well as the need for observations and direct assessment of the abyssal ocean beneath 2,000 m. Key Points: Rapid sea level rise occurs in the tropical Southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) since the early 2000sThe ocean mass addition and the upper 2,000 m ocean warming contribute significantly to the total sea level riseThe upper 2,000 m ocean warming is primarily attributed to thermal expansion below the thermocline associated with the spread of water masses [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dynamical seasonal forecast models are improving with time but tend to underestimate the amplitude of atmospheric circulation variability and to have lower skill in predicting summer variability than in winter. Here, we construct Nonlinear AutoRegressive Moving Average models with eXogenous inputs (NARMAX) to develop the analysis of drivers of North Atlantic atmospheric circulation and jet‐stream variability, focusing on the East Atlantic (EA) and Scandinavian (SCA) patterns as well as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. New time series of these indices are developed from empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. Geopotential height data from the ERA5 reanalysis are used to generate the EOFs. Sets of predictors with known associations with these drivers are developed and used to formulate a sliding‐window NARMAX model. This model demonstrates a high degree of predictive accuracy, as indicated by its average correlation coefficients over the testing period (2006–2021): 0.78 for NAO, 0.83 for EA and 0.68 for SCA. In comparison, the SEAS5 and GloSea5 dynamical forecast models exhibit lower correlations with observed circulation changes: for NAO, the correlation coefficients are 0.51 for SEAS5 and 0.34 for GloSea5, for EA they are 0.15 and 0.09, respectively, and for SCA, they are 0.28 and 0.24, respectively. Comparison of NARMAX predictions with forecasts and hindcasts from the SEAS5 and GloSea5 models highlights areas where NARMAX can be used to help improve seasonal forecast skill and inform the development of dynamical models, especially in the case of summer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]