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Simple Summary: This work aims to analyze flocks' management practices and sheep breeders' perceptions of the impact of climate change to enhance the resilience of the sheep production systems in the Tunisian semi-arid region. The results revealed three main sheep production systems: the agro-pastoral rain-fed system (AGPRF), the agro-pastoral irrigated system (AGPI), and the agro-sylvo-pastoral system (AGSP). Each production system is characterized by specific management and productive parameters that are used by farmers to build resilience actions. However, farmers' climate change perceptions are mostly the same across the three sheep production systems: a decrease in precipitation and an increase in temperatures and extreme events, which negatively influence feedstuff availability and costs. Global climate change inflicts unambiguous risks on agricultural systems and food security. Small ruminants are known for their ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions. This paper aims to characterize sheep production systems in a vulnerable agricultural zone and the breeders' perceptions of climate change to apprehend challenges that they are confronting, and formulate resilience actions. The data analysis is based on 94 semi-structured surveys of sheep farmers carried out in the Tunisian semi-arid region. The PCA analysis results revealed three main sheep production systems. The agro-pastoral rain-fed system (AGPRF) is dominant (55%), with large farms and common pastures integrating cereals and fodder. The agro-pastoral irrigated system (AGPI: 20%) is characterized by small-area and forage irrigation (1.8 ha) and a smaller number of ewes but a greater use of animal feed supplementation. The agro-sylvo-pastoral system (AGSP: 25%) is a system where grazing is based on common lands and using tree sub-products, while the agricultural area is exclusively used to cultivate cereal crops. Sheep breeders' climate perceptions are summarized as unpredictable climate events, a decrease in precipitation, and an increase in temperature. Resilience actions principally consist of reducing flocks' numbers, using alternative local feed, fodder, and water resources, and building more shelters and planting more trees in the grazing areas. Nevertheless, cost-effectiveness should be considered in such vulnerable zones to insure the sheep production systems' sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the warming and humidification process in the Northwest Arid Zone over the past 30 years, the runoff of a vast majority of rivers has been affected to different degrees. In this paper, the runoff from the Weigan River, a typical inland river in the arid zone of Northwest China, is taken as an example, and seven types of CMIP6 data are selected with the help of a SWAT model to predict the runoff volume of the Weigan River in the next 30 years under climate change. The results show that (1) the SWAT model can simulate the runoff from the Weigan River well and has good applicability in this study area. (2) With an increase in radiative forcing, the temperature, precipitation and runoff in the study area show an increasing trend. (3) Under the four radiative forcing scenarios in 2030 and 2050, the runoff from the Weigan River out of the mountain is predicted to be maintained at 25.68 to 30.89 × 108 m3, which is an increase of 1.35% to 21.91% compared with the current runoff, of which the contribution to the increase in future runoff caused by the changes in temperature and precipitation is 68.71% and 27.24%, respectively. It is important to explore the impact of climate change on the runoff from the Weigan River to understand the impact of climate change on the Northwest Arid Region scientifically and rationally, and to provide a scientific basis for evaluating the risk of climate change and formulating policies to deal with it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global climate has undergone great changes in recent decades, which has a significant impact on the vegetation system, especially in arid and semi-arid areas. Based on a dynamic model, this paper studied the response of vegetation pattern to climate change in Qinghai Lake, a typical semiarid region. The conditions for Turing instability of the equilibrium were obtained by mathematical analysis. The numerical experiments showed the influence of different climitic factors (carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2], temperature and precipitation) on vegetation pattern. The results showed that the robustness of the vegetation system was enhanced as precipitation or [CO2] increased. Furthermore, we presented evolution of vegetation system under different climate scenarios to forecast the future growth of vegetation. We compared the various climate scenarios with representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). The results revealed that RCP2.6 scenario was a desired climate scenario for Qinghai Lake. Our study also highlighted the measures to avoid desertification by the method of optimal control. We expect that this study will provide theoretical basis for vegetation protection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-resolution oasis maps are imperative for understanding ecological and socio-economic development of arid regions. However, due to the late establishment and relatively niche nature of the oasis discipline, there are no high-precision datasets related to oases in the world to date. To fill this gap, detailed visual interpretation of remote sensing images on Google Earth Professional or Sentinel-2 was conducted in summer 2020, and for the first time, a high-precision dataset of China's oases (abbreviation HDCO) with a resolution of 1 meter was constructed. HDCO comprises 1,466 oases with a total area of 277,375.56 km2. The kappa coefficient for this dataset validated by the field survey was 0.8686 and the AUC value for the ROC curve was 0.935. In addition, information on the geographic coordinates, climatic conditions, major landforms, and hydrological features of each oasis was added to the attribute table of the dataset. This dataset enables researchers to quantitatively monitor location and area of oases, fosters exploration of the relationship between oases and human under climate change and urbanization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Semiarid regions play a pivotal role in global ecosystem and environmental governance. Changing environment (climate and land use variation) has led to the disruption of hydrology in semi-arid regions and ecological degradation in some area. Understanding their hydrological response to changing environments is crucial for ecological rehabilitation and optimal water resource allocation. This research, conducted in a Chinese semiarid watershed, integrates multi-field models about hydrology, meteorology and geography to investigate hydrological processes in typical hydrological years. The results indicate that the climate in this region is drying, and the likelihood of extreme weather events is increasing with global warming. Projecting changes from 2010 to 2060, 9.21% of grassland converting to 5.63% of forest and 3.58% of gully built-up land. As a result, the flood peak increases by 22.99% in typical drought years, while it decreases by 36.77% in normal years. Based on our analysis of the rainfallrunoff process in typical drought and normal years, we identify two distinct effects: the "local rainfall-runoff effect" and the "global rainfall-runoff effect", respectively. However, in typical wet years, the streamflow state is primarily controlled by intense and concentrated precipitation. This research provides insights into the effect of ecological restoration and typical climate variations on hydrological cycle in semiarid regions, thus contributing to more informed decision-making in environmental management and water resource planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Sorghum is emerging as a viable crop option to increase food production under changing climate due to its resilience to drought and marginal soils. Appropriate planting date, crop cultivars, type of tillage and rotations, under contrasting climatic conditions, could make significant contribution on the effective management of sorghum under changing climatic conditions. A short-term study was carried out to investigate the effects of planting date, crop cultivar, tillage type and rotations on the growth and primary nutrient uptake of sorghum in contrasting climatic regions. Methods: The study was conducted in Free State - (FS) and KwaZulu Natal (KZN) Provinces of South Africa over two seasons (2020/21 and 2021/22). The two cultivars (Pan8816 and Macia) were sown in December (PD1) and in January (PD2) under conventional tillage (CT) and no-till (NT) and with two rotations (Sorghum-Cowpea-Sorghumand Sorghum-Sorghum-Sorghum) resulting in 2×2×2×2 factorial experiment. Results and discussion: In KZN, in both the first (2020/21) and second (2021/22) seasons, the effects of all the factors, except cultivar in the second season, were not significant on yield, and uptake of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K). In the second season, Pan8816 (4.40 t/ha) produced 3.3 times higher yield than Macia (1.32 t/ha), and took up higher N, K and P. In FS, the early planted sorghum (1.15 t/ha for season one; 3.39 t/ha for season two) had significantly higher yield than late planted sorghum (0.434 and 0.91 t/ha for seasons one and two, respectively). Furthermore, the early-planted crops took up higher N, K and P than when planted late, while Pan8816 took up 1.74 times more P than Macia. Plants grown under CT (2.61 t/ha) produced significantly higher yield than under NT (1.70 t/ha), with plants under CT taking up significantly more K than those grown on NT. These findings suggest that in the drier FS, early planting under conventional tillage, while in the wetter KZN, selecting the appropriate cultivar (PAN8816), are essential for sorghum grain yield, at least in the short-term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several developing countries in Asia are relying on agricultural practices in which climate change is a challenging concern. The trends change in atmospheric parameters and vegetation indices are questioned and vague. Consequently, the trend variations of the environmental characteristics were introduced in the first decade of 21 century to better understand the trend changes and envisage the relationship between the atmospheric parameters and the vegetation cover. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder provide several atmospheric parameters, e.g., Air Temperature, Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), and Carbon Dioxide (CO2). In addition, NDVI was estimated and aimed at the role of the interactions among the atmospheric parameters based on statistical analysis. The results showed that AOD and NDVI were air temperature dependent; meanwhile, AOD, NDVI, and air temperature were exchanging and influencing one another. Furthermore, the average minimum air temperature of the region increased during this period and carbon dioxide was a time-dependant parameter that was rising at a steep slope, which may lead to environmental crises. The trend analysis outlines what policies, programs, and procedures should be used to balance the ecosystem and mitigate the climatic negative effects. The Current research strengthens on the social awareness and the international cooperation to reduce socio-economic and political harm and loss in the face of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The greenery of floodplain meadows in arid regions, such as Mongolia, is influenced by climate, hydrology, and land use. In this study, we analyzed the NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) of two floodplain meadows located along the South Tamir and Tamir Rivers using LANDSAT images. Our goal was to observe NDVI spatial changes, variations, and mean values in mid-August every six years from 1991 to 2015 and to identify the factors driving these differences. To achieve this, we conducted variance analysis to identify changes in NDVI and implemented Principal Component Analysis to determine the influence of hydro-meteorological factors and grazing intensity. Our findings indicate a significant decrease in greenness, as measured by pixel-scale NDVI, during the late summer period. This decrease was consistently observed, except for a series of harsh winters that followed relatively dry summers, resulting in a disastrous event called dzud, which led to the death of livestock. The decrease in NDVI was amplified by lower precipitation in June, higher temperatures and wind speed in July, and increased precipitation in August, along with a higher frequency of days with convective rain. Our findings have important implications for managing grazing in Mongolia's grasslands, promoting sustainable land use, and mitigating sandstorms. The variance and average values of NDVI at the pixel level can serve as reliable markers of sustainable pasture management in areas where other vegetation measures are limited. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The proposal for a method of identifying the occurrence of desertification that has a strong association with in situ data leads to more assertive results when analysing the contribution of climate and social and economic factors to advancing the process. This study aimed to develop a methodology called the RisDes_Index to evaluate the evolution of the desertification process based on satellite data. The concept of the RisDes_Index method was based on the reflectance variables of the R, B and G bands, albedo and LAI of the Landsat 5/TM and Landsat 8/OLI satellites. Principal component analysis was used to assess the biophysical basis of the RisDes_Index by associating the results with micrometeorological data, physical and chemical properties, and vegetation cover data collected from five experimental sites in the semi-arid region of Brazil. These sites included one from a seasonally dry forest (i.e., the Caatinga), an agricultural cactus plantation, an area undergoing desertification, and two irrigated sugarcane crops (wetlands), one with and one without straw cover. The RisDes_Index was applied to all pixels of the images from 5 December 1991, 14 November 2001, 20 November 2009 and 6 October 2016 of an important desertification nucleus (DN) in the semi-arid region of Brazil, i.e., the DN of Cabrobó. The proposed RisDes_Index was able to identify areas with significant processes of desertification, which mainly occur in areas of sandy, acidic, bare soils with a high β value (Bowen ratio) and high soil temperature. The results of the RisDes_Index showed that in 5 December 1991, desertified areas comprised 38% of the total area of the DN of Cabrobó, expanding to 51% in 2016. Application of the RisDes_Index confirmed the advance of desertification in the DN of Cabrobó. This was due to a consequent increase in the water deficit and intensified deforestation to increase the areas of livestock farming. The RisDes_Index proved to be a robust method, as its estimation based on simple satellite products exhibited a strong association with biophysical variables of areas with different land uses and degradation levels. Thus, it is suggested that the RisDes_Index be applied in various regions of the world, with the idea of directing action to meet the advance of desertification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The issues of climate change in Senegal have the potential of undermining sustainable development efforts if positive steps are not taken to respond to its adverse consequences. This study documents existing and available literature on impacts of climate change on Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in semi-arid zones of Senegal. It is evident that there are significant negative impacts of climate on SMEs in Senegal. Loss of goods, low productivity and sales as well as loss of income are mainly observed by the small and medium enterprises due to the impacts of increased temperature, soil erosion and salinization, decrease of rainfall, frequency of extreme events on both supply and production processes. Despite this fact, there are limited adaptation and mitigation strategies to climate change at company or enterprise level in order to deal effectively with the changing climate. Ensuring Senegal's enterprises to develop more effective climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies, there is the need for the Senegalese government to support enterprises by providing the necessary resources such as credit, information, training for managers and employees on climate change adaptation strategies and technologies, and investing in climate resilient projects which will reduce significantly the adverse effects of climate change on business operations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Watermelons are one of the most important crop species, and they are enjoyed across the globe; however, the cultivation of watermelon commercial varieties in arid regions is challenging, as they are highly susceptible to water deficit. Conversely, their wild relatives and traditional landraces have shown a higher tolerance to water deficit, which makes them important study material. Therefore, this study was undertaken to evaluate the potential roles of two compatible osmolytes (citrulline and arginine) in the tolerance of local watermelon accessions to drought stress. Four commonly cultivated watermelon accessions were used in this study to evaluate their response when exposed to water deficit stress. The accessions were planted in stress boxes in the greenhouse and allowed to grow until the fourth leaf was fully open and then the water deficit stress was initiated by withholding water for a period of nine days, before rewatering for three days. Data and leaf samples were collected at three-day intervals. The common drought indicators that were assessed, like chlorophyll fluorescence, showed that Clm-08 (wild watermelon) had significantly different results when compared to the other accessions; the Fv/Fm values for days 3, 6, and 9 were significantly higher than those of the other accessions, while phiNPQ was higher in the Clm-08 with average values of 0.41 and 0.41 on days 6 and 9 of the drought stress, respectively. This suggests that the wild watermelon responded differently to drought stress when compared with the other accessions. Arginine and citrulline are important osmolytes that play an important role in stress tolerance, and the results of the current study correlate with the common physiological indicators. The expression pattern for both the biochemical and molecular analyses of the two compatible osmolytes was higher in Clm-08 in comparison with that of the other accessions. The gene expressions of the enzymes in the citrulline and arginine pathways were higher in Clm-08; Cla022915 (CPS) recorded a 6-fold increase on day 6 and Cla002611 (ASS) recorded an 11-fold increase. This suggests that citrulline and arginine play an important role in watermelon tolerance to drought stress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Desertification is a transnational, cross-regional, and global eco-environmental problem that seriously restricts sustainable socioeconomic development. As Mongolia is a typical arid and semi-arid region, the evolution of desertification in the country is closely related to major global issues such as climate change, global carbon cycling, and biodiversity. In this article, we analyze the background, development process, limitations, and other aspects of Mongolia's desertification prevention and control policies and regulations and conclude that Mongolia needs to formulate a "Desertification Prevention and Control Law." In particular, it needs to clarify the responsibility subjects, beneficiaries, interest compensation subjects, and illegal punishment subjects for prevention and control, as well as the responsibilities and obligations of relevant legal subjects. The research results show that it is important to form a solution mechanism in legal research on the joint prevention and control of desertification between Mongolia and China. We propose a concept of best future practice, highlighting the urgent need to establish a framework for the joint prevention and control of desertification via a cooperative mechanism between Mongolia and China and for the two countries to jointly promote global cooperation in combating this important environmental issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Starvation and malnutrition are one of the most destructive problems faced by the poor and needy in the world. With the world population expected to increase by 9.7 billion by 2050, there are growing concerns about the long-term sustainability of many existing food production systems to meet future needs for food. Aquaculture is one of the important sources of food supply, the development of which is of great importance as an important weapon in the global fight against malnutrition and poverty, especially in developing countries and arid and semi-arid regions of the world. In recent decades, aquaculture has dominated all sectors of livestock production in terms of growth and increasingly contributes to food security, poverty reduction, job creation and sources of income. It is important to follow sustainable development goals to increase aquaculture production. Climate change is currently affecting food security through increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. Food security is a global concern and access to affordable, nutritious, safe and properly cultivated food is one of the most important issues globally. The main emphasis in the development of aquaculture in arid and semi-arid areas is the use of new technologies based on water saving, such as biofloc technology (BFT), integrated multi-trophic aquaculture system (IMTA) and recirculating aquaculture systems (RAS). In this study, the importance of aquaculture as a sustainable source of food production in arid and semi-arid regions is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates, for the first time, the urbanization effect (UE) on local extreme climate events in Urumqi, China, based on 22 indices of climate extremes, which are calculated with daily observation data from 1976 to 2018. These analyses reveal a pronounced nocturnal urban heat island (UHI) effect and a daytime urban cold island (UCI) effect. Due to Urumqi's arid climate background, the UCI effect is considered a unique feature of the UE, which significantly differs from those in eastern and northern China. The UE on the TR20 index (number of days with minimum daily temperature exceeding 20 °C) reached 5.22 d/10a, indicating that urbanization has led to a fast increase in the number of hot nights in Urumqi. The absolute averaged UE on the indices measuring the frequency of warm events is about twice as large as that on the indices measuring the frequency of cold events, while that on the indices measuring the intensity of warm events is about one third of that on the indices measuring the intensity of cold events. The highest averaged urbanization contributions (UCs) to the extreme warm and cold events are represented by the frequency indices and the intensity indices, respectively, while those contributing to the extreme precipitation events are represented by the duration indices. Moreover, urbanization probably exacerbates the degree of wetting in the overall "warming and wetting" climate trend of the region. These findings can be seen as new evidence to provide scientific basis for further investigation of the UE on climate changes in arid regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rivers in arid regions serve as crucial freshwater resources for local communities and play an essential role in global hydrological and biogeochemical cycles. The Aral Sea Basin (ASB) in Central Asia is characterized by an arid climate and river dynamics that are sensitive to climate change and human activities. Monitoring the spatiotemporal variations in river water extent in the ASB is essential to maintain an ecological balance and ensure water security. In this study, we extracted data regarding monthly river water bodies in the ASB from 2017 to 2022 by synthesizing monthly Sentinel-2 images. The water extents on the Sentinel images were automatically mapped using the Otsu method, and the river widths for all river channels were calculated using the RivWidth algorithm. We investigated the relationships between the river dynamics and the geomorphology, climatic change, human activities, and the annual and interannual variations in the river width in different reaches of the basin. The results show a seasonal variability in the river width, with most rivers reaching the largest width in the warm season and a few rivers in the middle and lower areas reaching the valley value in the warm season. Compared to their tributaries, the mainstem in the middle/lower regions showed less seasonal variability. According to interannual analysis, most of the rivers in the ASB significantly narrowed between 2017 and 2022, a phenomenon which is generally impacted by temperature and evapotranspiration variations. Comparisons show that our results provide improved information about the narrow river reaches and denser river networks compared to the previous global dataset, demonstrating the advantageous properties of high spatial resolution in Sentinel-2 imagery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wetlands within dryland regions are highly sensitive to climate change and human activities. Based on three types of land use data sources from satellite images and a spatial data analysis, the spatiotemporal characteristics of wetland evolution in China's drylands and their relationship with human interference and climate change from 1990 to 2020 were analyzed. The results were as follows: (1) The wetlands within China's drylands expanded, including rivers, lakes, and artificial wetlands, apart from marshes, which shrunk. Meanwhile, wetland fragmentation increased, with rivers being particularly severely fragmented. (2) Temperature and precipitation showed an increasing trend from 1990 to 2020 in China's drylands. Lakes and rivers expanded with regional differences due to the uneven distribution of precipitation and rising temperature. (3) Human activities, more than climate change, became the key driving factor for the changes in wetland patterns in China's drylands. The increased areas of farmland and grassland along with increased levels of drainage and irrigation activities led to the shrinkage of marshes and the fragmentation of rivers. The increase in the number of artificial reservoirs was the main reason for the expansion of artificial wetlands. This study clarifies the specific driving factors of different types of wetlands within China's drylands, which is of great use for better protecting wetlands and the gradual restoration of degraded wetlands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effects of global climate change and human activities are anticipated to significantly impact ecosystem services (ESs), particularly in urban agglomerations of arid regions. This paper proposes a framework integrating the dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), system dynamics (SD) model, patch generation land use simulation (PLUS) model, and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model for predicting land use change and optimizing ESs spatial patterns that is built upon the SSP-RCP scenarios from CMIP6. This framework is applied to the oasis urban agglomeration on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang (UANSTM), China. The findings indicate that both the SD model and PLUS model can accurately forecast the distribution of future land use. The SD model shows a relative error of less than 2.32%, while the PLUS model demonstrates a Kappa coefficient of 0.89. The land use pattern displays obvious spatial heterogeneity under different climate scenarios. The expansion of cultivated land and construction land is the main form of land use change in UANSTM in the future. The DBN model proficiently simulates the interactive relationships between ESs and diverse factors. The classification error rates for net primary productivity (NPP), habitat quality (HQ), water yield (WY), and soil retention (SR) are 20.04%, 3.47%, 4.45%, and 13.42%, respectively. The prediction and diagnosis of DBN determine the optimal ESs development scenario and the optimal ESs region in the study area. It is found that the majority of ESs in UANSTM are predominantly influenced by natural factors with the exception of HQ. The socio-economic development plays a minor role in such urban agglomerations. This study offers significant insights that can contribute to the fields of ecological protection and land use planning in arid urban agglomerations worldwide. • An integrated framework combining DBN, SD, PLUS and InVEST models was proposed. • Impact of natural and socioeconomic factors on ESs was determined under climate scenarios. • The spatial pattern of ESs was optimized and partitioned using DBNs. • ESs in arid oasis urban agglomerations are mainly affected by natural factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The microbiota is attributed to be important for initial soil formation under extreme climate conditions, but experimental evidence for its relevance is scarce. To fill this gap, we investigated the impact of in situ microbial communities and their interrelationship with biocrust and plants compared to abiotic controls on soil formation in initial arid and semiarid soils. Additionally, we assessed the response of bacterial communities to climate change. Topsoil and subsoil samples from arid and semiarid sites in the Chilean Coastal Cordillera were incubated for 16 weeks under diurnal temperature and moisture variations to simulate humid climate conditions as part of a climate change scenario. Our findings indicate that microorganism-plant interaction intensified aggregate formation and stabilized soil structure, facilitating initial soil formation. Interestingly, microorganisms alone or in conjunction with biocrust showed no discernible patterns compared to abiotic controls, potentially due to watermasking effects. Arid soils displayed reduced bacterial diversity and developed a new community structure dominated by Proteobacteria, Actinobacteriota, and Planctomycetota, while semiarid soils maintained a consistently dominant community of Acidobacteriota and Proteobacteria. This highlighted a sensitive and specialized bacterial community in arid soils, while semiarid soils exhibited a more complex and stable community. We conclude that microorganism-plant interaction has measurable impacts on initial soil formation in arid and semiarid regions on short time scales under climate change. Additionally, we propose that soil and climate legacies are decisive for the present soil microbial community structure and interactions, future soil development, and microbial responses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Palynological analysis of surface soil and sub-surface sediments from the outwash plain of Hamtah Glacier, Lahaul-Spiti, India, has brought out the vegetation and climatic changes in the area during the last 1580 years. The arboreal and non-arboreal pollen ratio (AP/NAP) has been used to demarcate the different vegetation and climatic zones, complemented by the frequencies of the broad-leaved taxa. Lower values of thermophilous, broad-leaved arboreal taxa, indicate that the region experienced cold-arid conditions between 1580 and 1330 yr BP (AD 370–620); which can be related to the Dark Ages Cold Period (DACP). Thereafter, between 1330 and 950 yr BP (AD 620–1000), a rejuvenation of the broad-leaved elements reflects the initiation of a comparatively warm and moist phase, marking the Medieval Climatic Anomaly (MCA) in the region. The warm-moist phase was, however, short-lived, and from 950 yr BP to the Present (AD 1000 onwards), the region saw a return to cold-arid conditions, as evidenced by a sharp fall in the AP/NAP ratio. This cold-arid phase was, nevertheless, punctuated by a warm-moist period during 790 to 680 yr BP (AD 1160–1270), which marks the terminal phase of the MCA. After the termination of the MCA, the Little Ice Age (LIA) is well-marked in the area. The culmination of the long cold-arid regime is characterized by warmer conditions over the last 160 years, which is the manifestation of the Current Warm Period (CWP). Magnetic susceptibility (χlf) and sediment geochemistry (Weathering Index of Parker) were also attempted to have a multi-proxy approach, and show a general compatibility with the palynological data. The palaeoclimatic evidences suggest shorter warm periods and extended colder phases during the last 1580 years; in this high-altitude, cold-desert, Trans Himalayan region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is among the most pressing challenges for human advancement in the twenty-first century. Climate change is having a significant impact on the agricultural sector. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the food security status and sustainability of crop production under different climate change scenarios in the arid and semi-arid zones of Iran. To this end, the Statistical Down-Scaling Model (SDSM) and the outputs of the General Circulation Model (GCM) are employed to project future climate parameters under three climate scenarios. The study then employs the Just and Pope approach by using a panel dataset to evaluate the impact of climate change on crop production. Also, the multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) technique is used to assess the sustainability of crop production from an economic, social, and environmental perspective in the context of climate change and baseline conditions. The results of the study show that precipitation has a significant favourable effect on crop yield in both zones. Maximum temperature is positively and significantly related to crop yield in the semi-arid area, while the relationship is negative in the arid region. Future projections reveal that under different climate scenarios, the production of irrigated wheat, dryland wheat, irrigated barley, dryland barley, and potato crops will change by a maximum of approximately 7.57%, 35.70%, 62.86%, 15.90%, and 26.88% in the semi-arid zone and − 24.07%, 29.73%, − 31.33%, − 4.80%, and 25.80% in the arid zone, respectively. The findings imply that climate change will decrease the food security index for all crops in the arid zone, while improving the situation for crops in the semi-arid region. The results also indicate that future climate change can have a significant adverse effect on economic water productivity, economic benefits, and the sustainability of strategic crop production in the arid zone compared to the semi-arid zone. Given that a large part of Iran is covered by an arid climate, designing coherent adaptation actions and mitigation policies need to be prioritized to tackle the negative impact of climate change on food production systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies on China's arid and semi-arid regions, particularly the Tarim River Basin (TRB), have shown an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. This research examines the link between meteorological droughts, as measured by the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and hydrological droughts, as indicated by the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) and the Standardized Terrestrial Water Storage Index (STI), over various time scales. Historical data indicate that SPEI drought frequency (DF) was 14.3–21.9%, with prevalent events in the northern oases. SRI DF ranged from 9.0% to 35.8%, concentrated around the Taklamakan and Kumtag Deserts, while STI DF varied between 4.4% and 32.7%, averaging 15% basin-wide. Future projections show an increased DF of SPEI in deserts and a decrease in oases; SRI DF decreased in deserts but increased in oases. STI changes were more moderate. The study also found a higher risk of drought progression from SPEI to SRI in the southwestern and northeastern oases, exceeding 50% probability, while central and eastern TRB had lower risks. The western TRB and inner Taklamakan Desert faced higher risks of SPEI to STI progression, with probabilities over 45%, in contrast to the lower risks in the eastern and central oases. The concurrence of SRI/STI with moderate to extreme SPEI droughts led to a higher probability and area of SRI/STI droughts, whereas consistent SPEI types showed a reduced induced probability and extent of SRI/STI droughts. This study enhances the understanding of drought propagation from meteorological to hydrological droughts in the TRB and contributes to the prevention of hydrological drought to a certain extent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research addresses the growing complexity and urgency of climate change's impact on water resources in arid regions. It combines advanced climate modelling, machine learning, and hydrological modelling to gain profound insights into temperature variations and precipitation patterns and their impacts on the runoff. Notably, it predicts a continuous rise in both maximum and minimum air temperatures until 2050, with minimum temperatures increasing more rapidly. It highlights a concerning trend of decreasing basin precipitation. Sophisticated hydrological models factor in land use, vegetation, and groundwater, offering nuanced insights into water availability, which signifies a detailed and comprehensive understanding of factors impacting water availability. This includes considerations of spatial variability, temporal dynamics, land use effects, vegetation dynamics, groundwater interactions, and the influence of climate change. The research integrates data from advanced climate models, machine learning, and real-time observations, and refers to continuously updated data from various sources, including weather stations, satellites, ground-based sensors, climate monitoring networks, and stream gauges, for accurate basin discharge simulations (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency - NSERCP2.6 = 0.99, root mean square error - RMSERCP2.6 = 1.1, and coefficient of determination RRCP2:6² = 0.95 of representative concentration pathways 2.6 (RCP)). By uniting these approaches, the study offers valuable insights for policymakers, water resource managers, and local communities to adapt to and manage water resources in arid regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arid and semi-arid regions of the world are particularly vulnerable to greenhouse gas-driven hydroclimate change. Climate models are our primary tool for projecting the future hydroclimate that society in these regions must adapt to, but here, we present a concerning discrepancy between observed and model-based historical hydroclimate trends. Over the arid/semi-arid regions of the world, the predominant signal in all model simulations is an increase in atmospheric water vapor, on average, over the last four decades, in association with the increased water vapor-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere. In observations, this increase in atmospheric water vapor has not happened, suggesting that the availability of moisture to satisfy the increased atmospheric demand is lower in reality than in models in arid/semi-arid regions. This discrepancy is most clear in locations that are arid/semi-arid year round, but it is also apparent in more humid regions during the most arid months of the year. It indicates a major gap in our understanding and modeling capabilities which could have severe implications for hydroclimate projections, including fire hazard, moving forward. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water storage plays a profound role in the lives of people across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) as it is the most water-stressed region worldwide. The lands around the Caspian and Mediterranean seas are simulated to be very sensitive to future climate warming. Available water capacity depends on hydroclimate variables such as temperature and precipitation that will depend on socioeconomic pathways and changes in climate. This work explores changes in both the mean and extreme terrestrial water storage (TWS) under an unmitigated greenhouse gas (GHG) scenario (SSP5-8.5) and stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI) designed to offset GHG-induced warming above 1.5 ∘ C and compares both with historical period simulations. Both mean TWS and extreme TWS are projected to significantly decrease under SSP5-8.5 over the domain, except for the Arabian Peninsula, particularly in the wetter lands around the Caspian and Mediterranean seas. Relative to global warming, SAI partially ameliorates the decreased mean TWS in the wet regions, while it has no significant effect on the increased TWS in drier lands. In the entire domain studied, the mean TWS is larger under SAI than pure GHG forcing, mainly due to the significant cooling and, in turn, a substantial decrease in evapotranspiration under SAI relative to SSP5-8.5. Changes in extreme water storage excursions under global warming are reduced by SAI. Extreme TWS under both future climate scenarios is larger than throughout the historical period across Iran, Iraq, and the Arabian Peninsula, but the response of the more continental eastern North Africa hyper-arid climate is different from the neighboring dry lands. In the latter case, we note a reduction in the mean TWS trend under both GHG and SAI scenarios, with extreme TWS values also showing a decline compared to historical conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]