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Thunderstorm gusts are a common form of severe convective weather in the warm season in North China, and it is of great importance to correctly forecast them. At present, the forecasting of thunderstorm gusts is mainly based on traditional subjective methods, which fails to achieve high-resolution and high-frequency gridded forecasts based on multiple observation sources. In this paper, we propose a deep learning method called Thunderstorm Gusts TransU-net (TG-TransUnet) to forecast thunderstorm gusts in North China based on multi-source gridded product data from the Institute of Urban Meteorology (IUM) with a lead time of 1 to 6 h. To determine the specific range of thunderstorm gusts, we combine three meteorological variables: radar reflectivity factor, lightning location, and 1-h maximum instantaneous wind speed from automatic weather stations (AWSs), and obtain a reasonable ground truth of thunderstorm gusts. Then, we transform the forecasting problem into an image-to-image problem in deep learning under the TG-TransUnet architecture, which is based on convolutional neural networks and a transformer. The analysis and forecast data of the enriched multi-source gridded comprehensive forecasting system for the period 2021–23 are then used as training, validation, and testing datasets. Finally, the performance of TG-TransUnet is compared with other methods. The results show that TG-TransUnet has the best prediction results at 1–6 h. The IUM is currently using this model to support the forecasting of thunderstorm gusts in North China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Groundwater level (GWL) prediction is important for ecological protection and resource utilization; it helps in formulating policies for artificial groundwater recharge, modifying the number of extraction wells, etc., and can support sustainable human development as well as inform water resource management decisions. However, climate change, anthropogenic impacts, and the complex coupling between surface water and groundwater increase the difficulty of predicting groundwater levels. The model proposed in this paper combines external data as well as multiple models. The method leverages long and short-term memory (LSTM) and convolutional neural network (CNN) models, combined with secondary modal decomposition and slime mould algorithm (SMA), together with an adaptive weight module (AWM). The study applies this method to predict GWL for three different hydrological conditions in China, specifically for the Jinan Baotu Spring, Heihu Spring, and Zhongtianshe watershed of Taihu Lake. A comparison of metrics such as mean absolute error and Nash efficiency coefficient for single and hybrid models shows that the model in this paper is more advantageous than the single model and other hybrid models. The interpretability of the model is enhanced by SHAP values that demonstrate the degree of contribution of the input variables. This paper uses SHAP analyses to identify the key drivers affecting groundwater levels. These factors must be detected in order to develop groundwater resource protection measures. [Display omitted] • Multivariate fusion data including hydrology and meteorology are used as model input. • A secondary modal decomposition module for historical groundwater level data was utilized. • The neural network hyperparameters are optimized using the slime mould algorithm. • Aggregate subsets of prediction with adaptive modules rather than linear summation. • The interpretable SHAP model measures the degree of influence of external variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimating the total wind power output from the meteorological information at a province level (called Provincial Regional Wind Power Conversion Model, PRWPCM) plays vital and fundamental roles in energy modeling community and regional wind power forecasting. How to construct a reliable PRWPCM is a real challenge, since PRWPCM involves a large number of widely distributed wind turbines, massive meteorological data across the whole province, and complex nonlinear correlations. This paper proposes a lightweight PRWPCM by integrating Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis technology and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). First, we conduct the land suitability analysis for wind turbine sites through the multi-criteria GIS layer overlay method to make the provincial wind turbine land suitability map (WTLSM) with scored divisions from the least suitable to the most suitable areas. On this basis, a new fusion mechanism for geographic and meteorological information is proposed, through which the raw meteorological data matrix can be reconstructed to filter and amplify the meteorological information that is more relevant to the total wind power output of the province, and avoid the time-consuming and labor-intensive data collection and processing, large-size model construction and validation. Second, a CNN-based regression architecture is designed to further capture the mapping relationship between the reconstructed meteorological data and total wind power output of the province; each type of meteorological factor is considered as an input channel and the attention modules are introduced to adaptively enhance useful channels and suppress less useful ones. Numerical experiments based on the wind power operation data of Yunnan Province, China, are conducted to validate the superiority of the proposed PRWPCM via benchmarking against 13 classical methods. • Mapping relationship between wind power output and meteorological information at a province level is recognized by integrating GIS and CNN. • A new fusion mechanism for geographic and meteorological information is proposed to achieve lightweight modeling. • Comparative experimental studies are conducted in Yunnan province, China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]