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In recent decades, climatic pressures have altered the forested landscape of Bavaria. Widespread loss of trees has unevenly impacted the entire state, of which 37% is covered by forests (5% more than the national average). In 2018 and 2019—due in large part to drought and subsequent insect infestations—more tree-covered areas were lost in Bavaria than in any other German state. Moreover, the annual crown condition survey of Bavaria has revealed a decreasing trend in tree vitality since 1998. We conducted a systematic literature review regarding the remote sensing of forests in Bavaria. In total, 146 scientific articles were published between 2008 and 2023. While 88 studies took place in the Bavarian Forest National Park, only five publications covered the whole of Bavaria. Outside of the national park, the remaining 2.5 million hectares of forest in Bavaria are understudied. The most commonly studied topics were related to bark beetle infestations (24 papers); however, few papers focused on the drivers of infestations. The majority of studies utilized airborne data, while publications utilizing spaceborne data focused on multispectral; other data types were under-utilized- particularly thermal, lidar, and hyperspectral. We recommend future studies to both spatially broaden investigations to the state or national scale and to increase temporal data acquisitions together with contemporaneous in situ data. Especially in understudied topics regarding forest response to climate, catastrophic disturbances, regrowth and species composition, phenological timing, and in the sector of forest management. The utilization of remote sensing data in the forestry sector and the uptake of scientific results among stakeholders remains a challenge compared to other heavily forested European countries. An integral part of the Bavarian economy and the tourism sector, forests are also vital for climate regulation via atmospheric carbon reduction and land surface cooling. Therefore, forest monitoring remains centrally important to attaining more resilient and productive forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Beliefs form the fabric of every society. Likewise, there are socio-cultural beliefs that people hold as causes of climate risk. This paper sought to identify the socio-cultural beliefs on drought among crop farmers in Talensi, Ghana and how these provide insights for environmental management, social vulnerability, early warning systems and coping and adaptation. The selection of Talensi District was appropriate because it is one of the agrarian districts located in drought prone zone of Ghana. The study was designed following the case study approach. A total of 69 participants were selected through purposive sampling to participate in key informant interviews and focus group discussions conducted across nine (9) communities. The study found that manifestation of bad and/or indecent behavioural practices; performance and/or non-performance of traditional rites; presence and behaviour peculiar animals; and magical conjurations and incantations by spiritualists, diviners and soothsayers were the significant socio-cultural beliefs accounting for drought. The study concludes that the socio-cultural beliefs of the local people are their social-cultural capital and this asset is a useful gamut in explaining the social vulnerability; development of early warning drought systems; and selection of coping and adaptation strategies in Talensi District. A major recommendation is that individuals and institutions with expertise in technical and scientific early warning drought information should be circumspect in not adopting a judgmental approach when they are communicating and disseminating risk information, to the detriment of indigenous knowledge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Paciorek and Wehner raise important questions around our use of the Mann‐Kendall nonparametric trend test on smoothed data for analyzing long‐term hydrometeorological trends in Zhang et al. (2021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl092293). We thank them for initiating this important conversation and their gracious cooperation in exploring the issues addressed in their comment. In this reply we confirm the inflation of significant p‐values by our choice to smooth, illustrate the relatively minor impacts on the main conclusions of our paper, and add our voices to those of Paciorek and Wehner in highlighting the lack of methodology for hypothesis testing across multiple stations that have spatial structure (i.e., testing for regionally consistent trends). Plain Language Summary: Our colleagues Drs. Paciorek and Wehner have raised concerns about our paper (Zhang et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl092293), which showed widespread increases in the duration of drought events over the last five decades in the western United States. They point out that our decision to smooth the data using a moving average inflated the number of weather stations at which the trends toward longer droughts were deemed significant by a statistical test. We agree with them on this point, and we have recomputed all our results using unsmoothed data to determine the impacts. We find that for most stations and regions, trend magnitudes remained largely unchanged, with many stations nearby one another often suggesting similar trends. Finally, we agree with Paciorek and Wehner that there is a lack of statistical methods to test such coherent regional patterns, and we caution that over‐reliance on p‐values limits the power of regional data to identify important climate trends. Key Points: We agree that smoothing to 5‐year moving windows introduced serial correlation into time series of annual statistics of daily rainfall data, inflating the number of weather stations individually showing significant trends (p < 0.05) with the Mann‐Kendall testRecomputation with unsmoothed values produced substantially the same dry intervals trend magnitude and direction at most stations individually and had only minimal impacts on dry interval trends computed for National Ecological Observatory Network domains using the Regional Kendall testNo perfect statistical approach leverages the capacity of coherent regional patterns among spatially correlated weather stations, and an over‐reliance on p‐values as a binary (significant vs. insignificant) determinant of trends limits the power of regional data [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The area surrounding the Po River, known as the Po Valley, provides a central contribution in the economy of Italy and is highly devoted to agriculture. Recently it has been hit by multiple droughts, among which the exceptional event of summer 2022 is considered the worst dry period of the past 200 years. In the near future, the frequency of such exceptional events is predicted to rise; thus, a deep knowledge of the past droughts that hit the area, the variables used to characterize the events, the impacts they caused and the mitigation strategies adopted to deal with dry periods is of the utmost importance for policy definitions and planning. This study maps the scientific literature published from 2000 to February 2024 on the topic of drought in the Po Valley using the Scopus and Web of Science databases. Overall, 44 articles have been identified and grouped in three main classes: event identification and characterization, impact analysis and management strategies. The main gaps found in the collected papers are the lack of evaluations of the impacts of drought events on human health, hydroelectric energy production and tourism. Furthermore, comprehensive drought management and planning in the area is never addressed in the considered articles. The mentioned aspects deserve more attention, especially the development of drought management plans and policies and the evaluation of their effectiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses the increasing severity of droughts due to climate change. It emphasises the complexity of defining drought and the diverse perspectives among stakeholders. Lots of stakeholders with unclear responsibilities are involved, which can lead to uncertainty and indecisiveness in addressing the issue. To tackle this, the present paper proposes a methodology to dissect drought systems and reveal the intricate relationships between their components. This approach combines a comprehensive definition of drought with the "Water Resilience Assessment Framework" and an "Actor-Relational Approach", visualised through network analysis. The methodology was applied to a case study situated in the Leie Basin of Flanders, Belgium. By employing this strategy, policymakers and mediators can gain a deeper understanding of drought, identify its root causes, and prioritise necessary changes for more effective drought and water management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought is one of the most critical environmental hazards for the viability and productive development of crops, especially in a climate change environment. To this end, drought assessment is a process of paramount importance to make vulnerable agricultural regions more resilient. The primary aim of this paper is an integrated drought assessment through time and space in one of the most susceptible (in terms of water availability limitations) and agriculturally productive regions in Greece and the Mediterranean, namely, the Thessaly region. Supplementary objectives consist of the determination of the two most extreme years in terms of drought and wetness, so that we may reveal any potential climatological cycles/patterns from 1981 to 2020. Additionally, the methodology includes the annual and seasonal analysis using one of the most widely used drought indices, namely, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), so that consistent measurements are available across a large study area, avoiding the possible scarcity/deficiency of data coming from a sparse land weather network. The innovative element of this paper is the integrated spatiotemporal drought assessment in multiple time scales through the estimation of the SPI making use of remotely sensed data, such as CHIRPS (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data). The outcomes highlight that the study area faced two severe years of drought in 1988 and 1989, which led to moderate and extreme drought conditions, respectively. In contrast, extremely wet conditions were observed in 2002–2003, whereas 2009–2010 experienced moderately wet conditions. The central and western part of the region tends to suffer the most in terms of drought severity, especially at the most extreme years. The validity of the results has been confirmed by the adoption of R2 where the index is approaching 0.67 despite the large size of the pixels (5 × 5 km). In this context, the mapping of spatial and seasonal variability across the study area permits more targeted measures (e.g., precision farming) instead of horizontal policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article addresses the issue of droughts in recent years in Poland and their impact on the state of groundwater resources. This paper presents the challenges arising from the increasing demand for the use of groundwater for irrigation in agriculture, supplementing water shortages, and potential threats to the water supply of rural waterworks. The main part of this paper focuses on a small catchment area in the Mazovian Lowland, which is one of the driest regions in the country. This article includes definitions, characteristics, and causes of hydrologic and hydrogeologic droughts during the period 2011–2020. In the discussed area, there is generally one groundwater level of the Quaternary age, primarily recharged by rainfall infiltration, which is utilized by all dug wells and a number of drilled wells. The source material consisted of daily measurements of groundwater levels with a free surface from three piezometers located in different land use areas (forest, agricultural, and sparse development). Additionally, daily flows of the Zagożdżonka River at the Płachty Stare gauge station were examined, where the drying of the riverbed in the upper reaches has been observed in recent years. This study investigated the dynamics of hydrogeologic droughts in renewable groundwater resources and the rate of their decline in relation to hydrologic droughts of surface waters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agriculture is one of the most culturally and economically important livelihood activities of the Ganges River Delta. In recent years, coastal communities have experienced longer dry seasons and salinity intrusion, which is exacerbated by registration errors in land tenure that have led to increasing encroachment by external interests in the Dacope sub-district of Bangladesh. These challenges threaten to undermine the sustainability of smallholder access to canals that are collectively managed as common-pool resources (CPR). This paper explores how identity and collective action may empower farmers to secure irrigation access in the face of external pressures. Drawing primarily on qualitative data collected through focus group discussions with farmers in Dacope, our findings reveal that identity serves as a powerful force driving collective action and the sustainability of the agricultural community. A shared occupational identity fosters a sense of belonging and collective responsibility among farmers to maintain water flow through construction, annual dredging, and temporary dry-season protections. However, despite a strong commitment to maintaining their irrigation system, challenges remain in farmers' ability to combat the powerful interests of wealthier members of the community that threaten to undermine the viability of the irrigation commons. Thus, formal support through policy and legislative avenues is also necessary to safeguard common property rights against the threat of privatization and illegal occupation of canals. These findings further underscore the need for more research on how collective identity may strengthen collective action, livelihoods, and sustainability in the absence of strong institutional arrangements that uphold community rights and access to common-pool resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Genetic and agronomic advances consistently lead to an annual increase in global barley yield. Since abiotic stresses (physical environmental factors that negatively affect plant growth) reduce barley yield, it is necessary to predict barley resistance. Artificial intelligence and machine learning (ML) models are new and powerful tools for predicting product resilience. Considering the research gap in the use of molecular markers in predicting abiotic stresses, this paper introduces a new approach called GenPhenML that combines molecular markers and phenotypic traits to predict the resistance of barley genotypes to drought and salinity stresses by ML models. GenPhenML uses feature selection algorithms to determine the most important molecular markers. It then identifies the best model that predicts atmospheric resistance with lower MAE, RMSE, and higher R2. The results showed that GenPhenML with a neural network model predicted the salinity stress resistance score with MAE, RMSE and R2 values of 0.1206, 0.0308 and 0.9995, respectively. Also, the NN model predicted drought stress scores with MAE, RMSE and R2 values of 0.0727, 0.0105 and 0.9999, respectively. The GenPhenML approach was also used to classify barley genotypes as resistant and stress-sensitive. The results showed that the accuracy, accuracy and F1 score of the proposed approach for salinity and drought stress classification were higher than 97%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temperate forests are particularly exposed to climate change and the associated increase in weather extremes. Droughts, storms, late frosts, floods, heavy snowfalls, or changing climatic conditions such as rising temperatures or more erratic precipitation are having an increasing impact on forests. There is an urgent need to better assess the impacts of climate change and extreme weather events (EWEs) on temperate forests. Remote sensing can be used to map forests at multiple spatial, temporal, and spectral resolutions at low cost. Different approaches to forest change assessment offer promising methods for a broad analysis of the impacts of climate change and EWEs. In this review, we examine the potential of Earth observation for assessing the impacts of climate change and EWEs in temperate forests by reviewing 126 scientific papers published between 1 January 2014 and 31 January 2024. This study provides a comprehensive overview of the sensors utilized, the spatial and temporal resolution of the studies, their spatial distribution, and their thematic focus on the various abiotic drivers and the resulting forest responses. The analysis indicates that multispectral, non-high-resolution timeseries were employed most frequently. A predominant proportion of the studies examine the impact of droughts. In all instances of EWEs, dieback is the most prevailing response, whereas in studies on changing trends, phenology shifts account for the largest share of forest response categories. The detailed analysis of in-depth forest differentiation implies that area-wide studies have so far barely distinguished the effects of different abiotic drivers at the species level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought poses a continual threat to both lives and livelihoods in the Global South. Although the impact on food security from drought could be reduced through early release of funds, the humanitarian sector typically reacts to crises rather than anticipates them. A significant challenge lies in devising a drought monitoring and forecasting system that can function across environmentally and economically diverse regions. This is particularly evident in Pakistan, which encompasses environments ranging from fertile riverbeds to arid deserts. This paper details the development, implementation, and operation of an anticipatory drought Disaster Risk Financing (DRF) programme for the provinces of Punjab, Sindh, and Baluchistan in Pakistan. Key to the DRF development are a new yield model for the primary crop in the target season (winter wheat), and a novel forecasting system for four seasonal drought indicators - namely winter wheat yield, precipitation, normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) and vegetation health index (VHI). Formal evaluations demonstrate that the forecasts are skillful up to 2 months in advance of the end of the season - enabling anticipatory release of funds. The work presented here is applicable beyond Pakistan. Indeed, the model and the methodologies are sufficiently broad and adaptable to be utilised in arid and semi-arid regions across the Global South. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, there has been increasing interest in the joint modelling of compound extreme events such as high temperatures and low rainfall. The increase in the frequency of occurrence of these events in many regions has necessitated the development of models for estimating the concurrent probabilities of such compound extreme events. The current study discusses an application of copula models in predicting the concurrent probabilities of compound low rainfall and high-temperature events using data from the Lowveld region of the Limpopo province in South Africa. The second stage discussed two indicators for monitoring compound high temperature and low rainfall events. Empirical results from the study show that elevations ranging from 100–350 m, 350–700 m and 700–1200 m exhibit varying probabilities of experiencing drought, with mild droughts having approximately 64%, 66%, and 65% chances, moderate droughts around 36%, 39%, and 38%, and severe droughts at approximately 16%, 19%, and 18%, respectively. Furthermore, the logistic regression models incorporating the southern oscillation index as a covariate yielded comparable results of copula-based models. The methodology discussed in this paper is robust and can be applied to similar datasets in any regional setting globally. These findings could be useful to disaster management decision makers, helping them formulate effective mitigation strategies and emergency response plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cities around the world are facing increased sensitivity to drought effects. Climate-change-induced drought affects not only the natural hydrology of the broad macroclimate but also those in the urban microclimates. The increasing frequency and duration of droughts are creating challenges for urban water utilities to convey water through distribution systems to customers reliably and consistently. This has led many urban areas like San Francisco, California, to search for unique alternative water supply projects to help bolster the drought resilience of the coupled human and natural water system. This paper focuses on applying the features of resilience (i.e., plan, adapt, absorb, and recover) through a drought resilience matrix to water supply alternatives to analyze how the addition of these projects would increase the overall water system's drought resilience. San Francisco, California, was used as the case study to test the use of this matrix. Three portfolios (modifying existing supply, recycling, and desalination, as well as local approaches) were created and tested in the matrix. Each portfolio is composed of various alternative water supply projects that the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission (SFPUC) is considering for implementation. Results concluded that the local approaches portfolio provided the most drought resilience, with the recycling and desalination portfolio providing the least resilience. The study approach and the presented findings will provide guidance to water utility professionals in supply planning to enhance drought resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Droughts are increasing in frequency and intensity as the global climate changes. Risk assessment for agricultural drought disasters is an important approach for disaster prevention and mitigation. Based on the formation mechanism of natural disaster risk, the index system model of agricultural drought risk assessment in North China was constructed, and the robustness of the established risk assessment model was tested by using the internal test method. Then based on the characteristics of agricultural drought risk formation in North China, the paper proposes corresponding risk prevention recommendations. The conclusions were as follows: when adjusting the indices and methods in the risk assessment model, the range of changes in the agricultural drought risk ranking for each city was mostly 1-2.5 places, and the model was relatively robust. With the exception of Beijing and Tianjin, which had the highest disaster prevention and mitigation capacity, central and northern China had the highest agricultural drought risk, which was previously linked to the high risk and vulnerability of these regions. The agricultural drought risk in northern Henan and southern Shandong is low, mainly due to the low risk. The 34 cities in North China can be divided into 6 agricultural drought risk clusters, which are not dispersed in space and cross-city distribution, and have good aggregation. Cluster 4, located in the northernmost mountainous areas, has the highest risk of drought, which is associated with high environmental vulnerability and low capacity for disaster prevention and mitigation, so agricultural areas should be reduced and agricultural input should be increased. Clusters 2, 5 and 6, located in the central and southern regions, have higher grain acreage and yields due to drought, so agricultural drought risk can be further reduced by increasing agricultural input and improving irrigation guarantee rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought has emerged as a major challenge to global food and water security, and is particularly pronounced for Algeria, which frequently grapples with water shortages. This paper sought to monitor and assess the temporal and spatial distribution of drought severity across northern Algeria (excluding the Sahara) during the growing season from 2011 to 2022, while exploring the relationship between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) anomaly and climate variables (rainfall and temperature). Temporal NDVI data from the Terra moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite covering the period 2000–2022 and climate data from the European Reanalysis 5th Generation (ERA5) datasets collected during the period 1990–2022 were used. The results showed that a considerable portion of northern Algeria has suffered from droughts of varying degrees of severity during the study period. The years 2022, 2021, 2016, and 2018 were the hardest hit, with 76%, 71%, 66%, and 60% of the area, respectively, experiencing drought conditions. While the relationship between the NDVI anomaly and the climatic factors showed variability across the different years, the steady decrease in vegetation health indicated by the NDVI anomaly corroborates the observed increase in drought intensity during the study period. We conclude that the MODIS-NDVI product offers a cost-efficient approach to monitor drought in data-scarce regions like Algeria, presenting a viable alternative to conventional climate-based drought indices, while serving as an initial step towards formulating drought mitigation plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: As climate change increases the frequency and severity of droughts in many regions, conservation during drought is becoming a major challenge for ecologists. Droughts are multidimensional climate events whose impacts may be moderated by changes in temperature, water availability or food availability, or some combination of these. Simultaneously, other stressors such as extensive anthropogenic landscape modification may synergize with drought. Useful observational models for guiding conservation decision‐making during drought require multidimensional, dynamic representations to disentangle possible drought impacts, and consequently, they will require large, highly resolved data sets. In this paper, we develop a two‐stage predictive framework for assessing how drought impacts vary with species, habitats and climate pathways. Location: Central Valley, California, USA. Methods: We used a two‐stage counterfactual analysis combining predictive linear mixed models and N‐mixture models to characterize the multidimensional impacts of drought on 66 bird species. We analysed counts from the eBird participatory science data set between 2010 and 2019 and produced species‐ and habitat‐specific estimates of the impact of drought on relative abundance. Results: We found that while fewer than a quarter (16/66) of species experienced abundance declines during drought, nearly half of all species (27/66) changed their habitat associations during drought. Among species that shifted their habitat associations, the use of natural habitats declined during drought while use of developed habitat and perennial agricultural habitat increased. Main Conclusions: Our findings suggest that birds take advantage of agricultural and developed land with artificial irrigation and heat‐buffering microhabitat structure, such as in orchards or parks, to buffer drought impacts. A working lands approach that promotes biodiversity and mitigates stressors across a human‐induced water gradient will be critical for conserving birds during drought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought has a paramount impact on global agriculture and food security. However, the study on future cropland areas that can incur drought is inadequate. This paper uses input parameters from 7 CMIP6 models for 7 future scenarios (SSP1‐1.9, SSP1‐2.6, SSP4‐3.4, SSP2‐4.5, SSP4‐6.0, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5) to measure South Asian cropland exposure to drought and its underlying factors. Some defined epochs such as 2021–2040 (near‐term), 2041–2060 (mid‐term), 2081–2100 (long‐term), and 1995–2014 (reference period) are designed to explore diverse outlooks of the change. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index and the Run theory methods are applied to detect drought. Results indicate an intensified cropland (under SSP4‐3.4, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5) in the Indo‐Gangetic Plain region of South Asia, where mostly the variation occurs among scenarios and periods. Notably, the future cropland exposed to drought will increase in the 2021–2040, and 2041–2060 periods, but it intends to decline during the 2081–2100. Relatively, the exposed cropland will upturn highest by 49.2% (SSP3‐7.0) in the mid‐term period and decrease by −8.2% (SSP5‐8.5) in the end future. Spatially, distributed cropland in the central, south‐west, and portion of the northeast of South Asia are subjective to be exposed largely, but it can drop greatly across the eastern part by the end future. Importantly, the climate change effect plays a grounding role in future exposure change over the region during the near to mid‐term periods, while the cropland change effect is predominant in the long‐term perspectives. However, these findings signify the urgency of policymaking focusing on drought mitigation to ensure food security. Plain Language Summary: Estimating drought‐induced cropland exposure is the pivotal aspect of agricultural risk assessment for drought impacts. The purposes of this study are to explore (a) how much of the cropland area would be exposed to drought under SSP scenarios; and (b) the degree to which climate change and cropland change effects contribute to changes in exposure. In this regard, we conducted a multi‐model and multi‐scenario‐based analysis to reveal variations in the cropland area exposed to drought in South Asia. Among the seven scenario combinations, the highest percentage of cropland exposed to drought was found at 49.2% (SSP3‐7.0) in the mid‐term epoch (2041–2060). The climate change effect seems to be the key contributor in the near‐term to mid‐term period, whereas it is the cropland change effect long‐term. To reduce drought risk, we recommend focusing on strong climate change mitigation policy development in the near‐ and mid‐term periods at a global scale and strict land‐use management policy interventions in the long‐term period at the regional level. Key Points: Larger cropland area will experience drought in the 2040–2060 period, while it will decline by the end of 21st centuryThe exposed cropland will increase by 49.2% under SSP3‐7.0 than that of historical timeThe climate change effect is the pivotal contributor in exposure changes over South Asia [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper scrutinizes Pakistan's acute water scarcity issues driven by population growth, diminishing supply, and recurrent droughts exacerbated by meteorological phenomena like La Nina. Regions such as Baluchistan and Sindh face severe water stress, jeopardizing livelihoods and potentially precipitating internal displacement, necessitating immediate and decisive governmental action. The absence of a coherent national water policy further complicates challenges in water storage, irrigation, and inter-provincial relations, potentially straining political dynamics. Through a comprehensive evaluation of Pakistan's water resources, this study identifies critical imperatives requiring urgent attention from policymakers. Proposed recommendations advocate for the development and implementation of a robust national water policy, strategic investments in modernized storage and irrigation infrastructure, promotion of water conservation initiatives, fostering inter-provincial collaboration, and the pursuit of cutting-edge sustainable water technologies. The successful execution of these measures would not only optimize water resource management but also underscore the government's commitment to ensuring national stability and prosperity amidst challenging environmental conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Average monthly air temperatures in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) exhibit a notable rise during summer, ranging from 0.4 to 0.8 °C per decade, while precipitation experiences a significant decrease of up to 8 mm per decade. Climate models, across various RCP scenarios, project an increase in air temperature, that is most pronounced in the summer season. Additionally, there is a projected frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation during autumn. In BiH, agricultural production faces substantial risks, including droughts, spring and autumn frosts, hail, and floods. Recent years have witnessed extreme hydrological events, notably the 2012 drought and the 2014 floods. Strategic documents highlight the critical importance of addressing floods and droughts for agriculture, as well as their implications for the environment, households, and industry. To assess the severity of extreme hydrological events and their impact on agriculture, with a specific emphasis on autumn and summer in Bosnia and Herzegovina, average and peak values of the Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) were calculated separately for the periods 1961-1990 and 1991-2020, focusing on October and August. Compared to the reference climatic period the current climate is characterized by shifts between intense wet and dry periods, with very few years exhibiting stable and expected weather conditions. Identified as extremely wet and flood-prone years, SPEI2 October values for 1974 (2.42), 1996 (2.13), 2001 (2.24), and 2014 (2.05) stand out, with only one extremely dry year in 1985 (-2.21). SPEI2 August indicates extremely dry years, notably 2012 (-2.35) and 2017 (-2.25). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Food security is a key pillar of environmental security yet remains one of the world's greatest challenges. Its obverse, food insecurity, negatively impacts health and well-being, drives mass migration, and undermines national security and global sustainable development. Ensuring food security is a delicate balance of myriad concerns within the atmospheric and Earth sciences, agronomy and agriculture engineering, social sciences, economics, monitoring, and policymaking. A Food Security Presidential Session at the American Meteorological Society's (AMS) 2022 Annual Meeting brought together experts across disciplines to tackle issues at the nexus of weather, climate, and food security. The starkest takeaway was the realization that, despite its importance and clear roles for the atmospheric and climate sciences, food security has not been a focus for the AMS community. The aim of this paper is to build on the perspectives shared by this expert panel and to identify overlapping issues and key points of intersection between the food-security community and AMS. We examine 1) the interactions between weather, climate, and the food system and how they influence food security; 2) the time and spatial scales of food security decision support that match weather and climate phenomena; 3) the role of both providers and users of information as well as decision-makers in improving research to operations for food security; and 4) the opportunities for the AMS community to address food security. We conclude that, moving forward, the AMS community is well-positioned to scale up its engagement across the global food system to address existing scientific needs and technology gaps to improve global food security. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: We examine how members of the AMS community can help ensure global food security, whether they are engaged in the physical and social sciences or the realms of policy and society. Inspired by the messages of panelists at a Presidential Forum on Food Security at the 2022 AMS Annual Meeting, we gather their perspectives and those of experts working in the various relevant fields and find that there are roles for everyone across the AMS—from providing forecasts of the hydrometeorological variables used in food security outlooks to converting data to knowledge and engaging with stakeholders and decision-makers. We make concrete suggestions to ensure the AMS and its members are fully engaged in feeding the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water stress (drought and waterlogging) leads to an imbalance in plant water distribution, disrupts cell homeostasis, and severely inhibits plant growth. Melatonin is a growth hormone that plants synthesise and has been shown to resist adversity in many plants. This review discusses the biosynthesis and metabolism of melatonin, as well as the changes in plant morphology and physiological mechanisms caused by the molecular defence process. Melatonin induces the expression of related genes in the process of plant photosynthesis under stress and protects the structural integrity of chloroplasts. Exogenous melatonin can maintain the dynamic balance of root ion exchange under waterlogging stress. Melatonin can repair mitochondria and alleviate damage caused by reactive oxygen species and reactive nitrogen species; and has a wide range of uses in the regulation of stress-specific genes and the activation of antioxidant enzyme genes. Melatonin improves the stability of membrane lipids in plant cells and maintains osmotic balance by regulating water channels. There is crosstalk between melatonin and other hormones, which jointly improve the ability of the root system to absorb water and breathe and promote plant growth. Briefly, as a multifunctional molecule, melatonin improves the tolerance of plants under water stress and promotes plant growth and development. Melatonin, as an exogenous hormone, has been widely used in improving plant stress resistance. This paper systematically describes how melatonin improves the ability of plants to resist water stress (drought and waterlogging) in the processes of photosynthesis, antioxidation and osmosis at the physiological and genetic levels. Melatonin can also improve plant stress resistance with other hormone crosstalk, which has high application value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Drought is one of the main natural hazards affecting large areas' economies and the environment. Therefore, it is necessary to study the different aspects of the drought on the land with several indices like the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) index which can clarify the existing conditions for decisions and planning. The objective of this study was to analyze the spatial pattern of drought by SPI index in the Fars Province located in the Southern part of Iran. In this paper, according to the data from 42 stations in Fars Province, during 1990-2019, the pattern of drought hazard is evaluated. In the presented model, several drought hazard criteria were used including the maximum severity of drought in the period, the trend of drought, and the maximum number of sequential arid years. The final drought risk map was obtained with an arithmetic mean of 3 criteria: intensity, continuity, and trend. The three criteria maps and final hazard map were interpolated by the Inverse Distance Weightage (IDW) method and classified into five hazard classes none, slight, moderate, severe, and very severe. The obtained maps showed that the intensity, trend, and continuity of drought increases from the southeast to the northwest. The final vulnerability map shows that moderate hazard areas (36% of the region) observed in the Southern parts of the region are less widespread than areas under severe and very severe hazard (64% of the region) observed in the northern and central parts of the region. Preparation of these hazard maps may prove to be helpful for regional managers, and policymakers for environmental and agricultural strategies, not only in Iran but also in other countries facing this hazard. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abiotic stress is a major cause of the declining crop yield worldwide, especially in tropical agricultural areas. Meeting the global food demand has become a serious challenge, especially in tropical areas, because of soil acidity, Al and Fe toxicity, drought and heat stress, and climate change. In this article, we reviewed several research and review papers from Google Scholar to list the different solutions available for the mitigation of abiotic stress, especially in tropical regions where several major crops, such as maize, sorghum, wheat, rice, soybean, and millet, are affected by abiotic stress and fertilizer input. In particular, Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has been affected by the low use of fertilizers owing to their high cost. Therefore, soil and plant researchers and farmers have developed many techniques to mitigate the effects of stress and improve the crop yield based on the agroecological zone and crop type. Nutrient management using chemical fertilizers alone or in combination with organic crops is a strategy recommended to cope with abiotic stress and increase the crop yield, particularly in developing countries. Notably, integrated soil fertility management has been effective in semi-arid areas under drought and heat stress and in subhumid and humid areas with high soil acidity and Fe toxicity in Africa. Recent advances in the molecular physiology of various crops considered a staple food in SSA have facilitated the breeding of transgenic tolerant plants with high yield. However, the feasibility and implementation of this technique in the African continent and most tropical developing countries are major issues that can be solved via adequate subsidies and support to farmers. This review can aid in the development of novel strategies to decrease hunger and food insecurity in SSA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plants experience diverse abiotic stresses, encompassing low or high temperature, drought, water logging and salinity. The challenge of maintaining worldwide crop cultivation and food sustenance becomes particularly serious due to drought and salinity stress. Sustainable agriculture has significant promise with the use of nano-biotechnology. Nanoparticles (NPs) have evolved into remarkable assets to improve agricultural productivity under the robust climate alteration and increasing drought and salinity stress severity. Drought and salinity stress adversely impact plant development, and physiological and metabolic pathways, leading to disturbances in cell membranes, antioxidant activities, photosynthetic system, and nutrient uptake. NPs protect the membrane and photosynthetic apparatus, enhance photosynthetic efficiency, optimize hormone and phenolic levels, boost nutrient intake and antioxidant activities, and regulate gene expression, thereby strengthening plant's resilience to drought and salinity stress. In this paper, we explored the classification of NPs and their biological effects, nanoparticle absorption, plant toxicity, the relationship between NPs and genetic engineering, their molecular pathways, impact of NPs in salinity and drought stress tolerance because the effects of NPs vary with size, shape, structure, and concentration. We emphasized several areas of research that need to be addressed in future investigations. This comprehensive review will be a valuable resource for upcoming researchers who wish to embrace nanotechnology as an environmentally friendly approach for enhancing drought and salinity tolerance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Key message: Drought severely worsened till 2100 and eventually outplayed growth-enhancing CO2 fertilization turning productivity gains into losses for beech and fir. Most scenarios generated notable losses in profitability but economic tipping points were later than for productivity due to lag effects related to discounting. Time mixture of fir and shortening rotation can counteract economic risks under climate change, but requires early admixture and moderate establishment costs. Context: Adaptation strategies to climate change (CC) such as establishing mixed forests are often based on ecological understanding while economic rationale is often disregarded. Aims: This paper studies CC uncertainty on productivity and profitability of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and Silver fir (Abies alba Mill.). Besides, the economic consequences to actively adapt beech forests by admixing Silver fir are investigated. Methods: We used the process-based forest growth model GOTILWA + to simulate RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climatic projection by the MPI-ESM-LR global circulation model (MPI-ESM-LR) with the CO2 fertilization effect (eCO2) switched on and off. We analysed the sensitivity of the land expectation value (LEV) on CC and economic parameters. Results: CC initially increased productivity, but declined after a tipping point (2040–2070) and later also profitability (2045–2100). RCP8.5 had positive, RCP2.6 negative and RCP4.5 neutral effects on LEV. Switching off eCO2 turned RCP8.5 from the most profitable to the least profitable scenario and the opposite for RCP2.6. CC generally reduced optimal rotation (Ropt) being scenario dependant, but comparatively more for fir than beech. Admixing fir created an economic benefit when implemented before stand age 50 of beech. This benefit was nullified with protection costs for browsing control (fencing or tree shelters). Conclusions: Economic parameters (not CC) were the major source of uncertainty stemming from discounting factors and establishment costs. Admixture of fir and shortening rotation can provide a solution to tackle economic and climate uncertainties, but requires early admixture and browsing control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Senegal, agriculture is an important sector underpinning the socioeconomic fabric of the populace. Notably, the agricultural production in this region exhibits heightened sensitivity to climatic perturbations, particularly droughts and heat waves. This study aims to determine the resilience of different agronomic interventions for farmers practicing mixed farming that produce both crops (i.e., groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) and pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum (L.) R. Br.)) and raise animals in the Groundnut Basin in Senegal, which holds historical and socioeconomic significance. To understand the current situation regarding demographics, economics, consumption behavior, and farm operations for smallholder farmers, data were comprehensively collected from government and nongovernment organizations (NGO) reports, scientific papers, organization databases, and surveys. Additionally, the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) was used to understand how combinations of three planting dates, three plant densities, and six urea nitrogen (N) fertilizer rates affected the yield of pearl millet, which were used as the alternative scenarios to the baseline in the farm modeling and analyses. All the collected and generated data were used as inputs into the Farm Simulation Model (FARMSIM) to generate economic, nutritional, and risk data associated with mixed farming systems. The generated data were then used to determine the resilience of the alternative scenarios against the baseline. Initially, a multi‐objective optimization was employed to meet nutritional needs while maintaining a healthy diet at the lowest cost. Then, the scenarios that met the population's nutritional requirements were evaluated based on four economic indicators: net cash farm income (NCFI), ending cash reserves (EC), net present value (NPV), and internal rate of return (IRR). Lastly, those that passed the economic feasibility test were ranked based on risk criteria certainty equivalent (CE) and risk premium (RP). The analyses found N fertilizer rates of 0, 20, and 100 kg N ha−1 were generally economically not feasible. Additionally, medium (early‐July to late‐August) and late (late‐July to mid‐September) planting dates generally performed better than early (early‐June to late‐July) planting dates, while plant densities of 3.3 and 6.6 pL m−2 performed better than 1.1. The robust resilience approach introduced in this study is easily transferable to other regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Wildfires are thought to become more prevalent during periods of extended dry weather. This issue is examined using two dryness metrics commonly applied in Australian fire management agencies. Aims: This paper investigated links between wildfire incidence and the Keetch–Byram Drought Index (KBDI) and McArthur's Drought Factor (DF) across the state of Victoria, Australia. Methods: Weather records and data from 41 418 wildfires that occurred across the State over a 17-year period were compiled to examine the distributions of KBDI and DF on days with fires smaller and larger than 5 ha in area and all days, using kernel density plots. Key results: Days with fires, particularly days with fires that escaped initial attack, have higher DFs and KBDIs compared with all days. These differences vary between regions and are greatest in areas with moist climates. Conclusions and implications: An appreciation of dryness conditions using tools such as KBDI and DF is useful for understanding fire potential, particularly in areas that experience higher and more regular rainfall. McArthur's Drought Factor and the Keetch–Byram Drought Index are higher than normal on days with fires in Victoria, Australia. These metrics provide a more reliable indication of fire potential in high-rainfall areas than in lower-rainfall areas. This article belongs to the Collection Fire and Climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

South African subsistence livestock farmers rely heavily on traditional mitigation and coping mechanisms to deal with the effects of drought. However, these methods have proven ineffective in managing the full impact of drought. Consequently, policymakers are increasingly interested in promoting Index-based Pasture Insurance (IBPI). This paper aims to assess subsistence livestock farmers' preferences for IBPI. A simple random sampling method was used to select 110 subsistence livestock farmers for data collection. A discrete choice experiment—Conditional Logit and Latent Class models and incentivized lottery games were used to elicit preferences for insurance contracts and loss aversion. The findings indicate that subsistence livestock farmers have a favourable attitude toward IBPI contracts that protect against drought-related pasture degradation. The Conditional Logit model shows that farmers prefer transparent contracts that reimburse with feed and vouchers rather than cash. However, they derive negative marginal utility from basis risk and premium. However, the Latent Class model reveals heterogeneous preferences for IBPI among farmers. Farmers are also loss-averse, but loss aversion did not influence their preference for IBPI. Therefore, the primary recommendation for insurance providers is to consider customizing IBPI attributes to increase adoption among subsistence farmers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]