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Super Typhoon Saola (2309) skirted past south-southeast of Hong Kong within 40 km on the night of 1 September 2023, posing a significant storm surge threat to Hong Kong. Given the close proximity of Saola with a peak intensity of about 210 km/h within 300 km of Hong Kong, a close call of the "super typhoon direct-hit" scenario, this case provides valuable insights from a hindcast review of storm surge forecasts and warning operation using the Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model, which is the operational storm surge model adopted by the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO). The performance of the HKO's PRobabilistic Inundation Map Evaluation System (PRIMES) using both statistical and model ensemble approaches was also reviewed in this paper. Saola was a challenging case for operational forecasting of a compact TC structure with changes in storm size and intensity when it came close to Hong Kong. With major observations of storm structure using weather radar and dense automatic weather station, tide gauge and water level gauge networks, the high sensitivity of storm surge forecasts to the storm size parameter and the distance of closest approach was clearly revealed in the case of Saola. Even with a circularly symmetric TC parametric model like SLOSH, the hindcast review results illustrated that the model outputs were reasonably accurate during the closest approach of Saola given an accurate storm size and distance of closest approach were input, and using a highly computationally efficient storm surge model made it possible for the nowcasting of storm surges to handle compact and intense TC direct-hit cases in operational TC forecasting. Taking a nowcasting approach not only helps provide more reliable storm tide forecasts, but also facilitates the formulation of a better warning strategy when making final-call decisions in emergency response actions, based on the more frequent real-time analysis of TC position, intensity and storm size and the more accurate prediction of these parameters. A nowcasting workflow for storm surge operation was proposed in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Nature-based solutions (NBS) in urban areas offer an opportunity to improve environmental conditions and to reduce CO2 emissions towards establishing climate-neutral cities in the next few decades. Furthermore, the implementation of NBSs—vertical or horizontal green infrastructures on public facilities—could in particular improve both climate, including outdoor thermal conditions on a micro-scale (especially during the summer season) and the energy demand of buildings as well as save heating energy during the winter period. Results: On both selected buildings, extensive green roofs were implemented as an NBS intervention. The analysed data were obtained using the monitoring systems (from 2019 to 2022) installed on two public buildings in Novi Sad (Republic of Serbia) and Osijek (Republic of Croatia), with a focus on climate/bioclimate characteristics and thermal transmission capacities. Four automatic weather stations (AWS) were used for microclimate monitoring, along with the heat flow meter (HFM) method, to measure the alterations in the thermal transmittance (U value) of a flat concrete roof before and after energy refurbishment and the installation of a green roof. The outcomes of this study show that the air temperatures (Ta) and globe temperatures (Tg) near the green roof are lower by 0–3 °C for Ta and by 0–16.5 °C for Tg than the values captured by the AWSs at other locations. An even more interesting fact is that the green roof has a constant cooling potential during tropical nights, and based upon this research, the cooling value is around 2 °C for Tg (the Ta value is not distinct). The thermal transmittance results show that more savings can be achieved by applying a green roof with an 8 cm thick substrate: U values decreased by 50–69%, as measured by two different heat flux sensors. Conclusions: Nature-based solutions, such as the implementation of an extensive green roof, have positive effects on diverse aspects of urban environments and building energy savings, which are particularly evident in extreme seasons, both summer and winter. Applying the proposed monitoring and assessment system could help local communities in their efforts to reduce carbon-based emissions. This paper provides a good example of the implementation of NBSs on a local- and a micro-scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While previous work on the climatology of Northern China has focused on mean wind speed, wind gusts have received comparatively less attention but are equally important to various users. In this paper, an observed hourly maximum gust wind speeds (HMGS) dataset across North China has been created by using time series from 174 meteorological stations. The dataset offers superior quality, high spatiotemporal near-surface HMGS series for North China spanning from 2015 to 2022. The objective of this study is first to improve our understanding of the spatiotemporal gusts climatology in North China by analyzing the observed gust data. Second, we aim to supplement the observational data by using gust analysis and forecast data with a high spatial–temporal resolution from model simulations. The spatial characteristics of the seasonal cycle of the simulated analysis of mean HMGS and the performance in predicting gusts based on the geographical locations and elevations of the validation stations were investigated by comparing it with the observations. Results indicate the following: 1) Wind direction and intensity are affected by the terrain and climate conditions of different weather stations. Stations situated along the Bohai Bay coastal region and at higher-elevation areas of North China exhibit a higher mean HMGS than those located in the coastal and inland plains. 2) The probability density function curves for wind speed and wind direction exhibit notable variations across different elevation intervals. The contribution of moderate and strong gust wind speeds increases gradually with increasing altitude, while the gust directions in mountainous areas exhibit relatively consistent patterns due to the increased exposure to synoptic-scale forcing at higher elevations. 3) The nowcasting prediction system analysis of mean HMGS provides a higher horizontal resolution that is capable of capturing the contrasts between land and sea, as well as the influence of high HMGS associated with large-scale circulations in high-elevation regions. Significance Statement: The purpose of this study is to better understand the spatiotemporal gust climatology in North China and the performance of the model-simulated gust analysis and forecast data. This is important because gusts conditions differ due to varying topographic and climatic conditions of different weather stations. Our results provide a valuable insight into the climatological variations of HMGS, their drivers, and identify the deficiencies in the model-simulation gusts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A prototype of an autonomous system for the retrieval of oceanographic, wave, and meteorologic data was installed and tested in May 2021 on a Portuguese research vessel navigating on the Atlantic Ocean. The system was designed to be installed in fishing vessels that could operate as a distributed network of ocean data collection. It consists of an automatic weather station, a ferrybox with a water pumping system, an inertial measurement unit, a GNSS unit, an onboard desktop computer, and a wave estimator algorithm for wave spectra estimation. Among several parameters collected by this system's sensors are the air temperature, barometric pressure, humidity, wind speed and direction, sea water temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen, salinity, chlorophyll-a, roll, pitch, heave, true heading, and geolocation of the ship. This paper's objectives are the following: (1) describe the autonomous prototype; and (2) present the data obtained during a full-scale trial; (3) discuss the results, advantages, and limitations of the system and future developments. Meteorologic measurements were validated by a second weather station onboard. The estimated wave parameters and wave spectra showed good agreement with forecasted data from the Copernicus database. The results are promising, and the system can be a cost-effective solution for voluntary observing ships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dryline, often associated with the development of severe storms in the Southern Great Plains of the United States of America, is a boundary layer phenomenon that occurs when a warm and moist air mass from the Gulf of Mexico meets a hot and dry air mass from the southwest desert area. An accurate knowledge of the water vapor spatio-temporal variability in the lower part of the atmosphere is crucial for a better understanding of the evolution of the dryline. The tropospheric refractivity, directly related to water vapor content, is a proxy for the water vapor content of the troposphere. It has already been demonstrated that the refractivity and the refractivity vertical gradient can be jointly estimated from radar phase measurements. In fact, it has been shown that using kriging interpolation techniques, accurate refractivity maps within the coverage area of the radar can be obtained with high temporal resolution. In this paper, a detailed analysis of the time series of radar-based refractivity maps obtained during a dryline that occurred on the afternoon of 22 May 2002 during the International H 2 O Project ( I H O P _ 2002 ) is presented. Comparisons between the time series of radar refractivity maps, obtained with the NCAR S-Pol radar, and the refractivity measurements derived from automatic ground-based weather stations and the AERI instrument, placed at different locations within the coverage area of the NCAR S-Pol radar, demonstrate the accuracy of radar refractivity estimates even for highly variable conditions, both in time and space, in the troposphere. Correlation coefficients higher than 0.95 are obtained in all weather station locations. Regarding the RMSE, errors less than 6 N-units are obtained for all cases, being even as low as 2.92 N-units at some locations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thunderstorm gusts are a common form of severe convective weather in the warm season in North China, and it is of great importance to correctly forecast them. At present, the forecasting of thunderstorm gusts is mainly based on traditional subjective methods, which fails to achieve high-resolution and high-frequency gridded forecasts based on multiple observation sources. In this paper, we propose a deep learning method called Thunderstorm Gusts TransU-net (TG-TransUnet) to forecast thunderstorm gusts in North China based on multi-source gridded product data from the Institute of Urban Meteorology (IUM) with a lead time of 1 to 6 h. To determine the specific range of thunderstorm gusts, we combine three meteorological variables: radar reflectivity factor, lightning location, and 1-h maximum instantaneous wind speed from automatic weather stations (AWSs), and obtain a reasonable ground truth of thunderstorm gusts. Then, we transform the forecasting problem into an image-to-image problem in deep learning under the TG-TransUnet architecture, which is based on convolutional neural networks and a transformer. The analysis and forecast data of the enriched multi-source gridded comprehensive forecasting system for the period 2021–23 are then used as training, validation, and testing datasets. Finally, the performance of TG-TransUnet is compared with other methods. The results show that TG-TransUnet has the best prediction results at 1–6 h. The IUM is currently using this model to support the forecasting of thunderstorm gusts in North China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a validation of outputs from some GCMs of the CMIP6 project when used to assess climate projection and hydrological flows at a catchment scale for the case study area of the Lombardy region (Northern Italy). The modeling chain consists of (i) a choice of climatic scenarios from 10 GCMs of the CMIP6, (ii) the application of a stochastic downscaling procedure to make projections usable at the local scale, and (iii) the use of a semi-distributed physically based hydrological model Poli-Hydro for the generation of hydrological scenarios. Data on observed precipitation and temperature were collected from automatic weather stations, and the hydrological budget of four target catchments within the study area was assessed using Poli-Hydro. An ex-post (back-casting) analysis was performed upon the control data series from the GCMs by comparing statistics of relevant climate variables and model-simulated discharges against observed counterparts during the historical period 2002–2014. Then, during 2015–2021, the goodness of projections was assessed using confidence intervals. Our results show that the accuracy of GCMs in representing regional climate is not always reflected in a credible evaluation of local hydrology. The validation of climate patterns provides somewhat poor results; thus, the interaction among climate and hydrology needs to be explored carefully to warrant the credibility of hydrological scenarios. Overall, the spatial and temporal consistency of GCM projections, as explored here climatically and hydrologically, provides a clue about their dependability for basin scale management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many existing extremal data span only a few decades that result in large uncertainty in the estimated shape parameter of the extreme hazard model. This in turn leads to potentially large bias and variance of extrapolated extreme values at high return levels. This paper illustrates a statistical method that helps obtain hazard models that produce estimates at high return levels with reduced bias and variance. This method makes use of the maximum recorded values of extremal data that are independently recorded from a number of observational sites or generated by heterogeneous mechanisms. The logarithmically transformed average recurrence interval of the maximum recorded value at a site is shown to follow the Gumbel (Type I extreme value) distribution; therefore, multiple, say m , observational sites provide a sample of size m log-transformed average recurrence intervals, each from a distinct site. The sample can be treated as a sample from a Gumbel distribution, irrespective of the underlying hazard-generating mechanisms or the statistical hazard models. Application of the method is illustrated by analysis of the extreme wind gust data from automatic weather stations in South Australia and shown to lead to significant reduction of 2.9 m/s in potential bias of the mean and a reduction of 98.1% in variance of the 500-year gust speed at Adelaide Airport. The results are compared to the specifications in the Australian standard AS/NZS 1170.2:2021 and indicate that the standard may have overestimated the wind gust hazard; hence, the specified design wind speeds may fall on the conservative side for South Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When the "Guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement" (GUM) is used to evaluate the uncertainty of wind speed sensors, there is a lack of input quantities correlation research, which leads to the deviation of the uncertainty evaluation result. This paper takes the calibration result of an automatic weather station's three-cup wind speed sensor as an example to evaluate the uncertainty of wind speed sensor measurement based on the correlation of input quantities. First, the calibration point of 10.00 m/s wind speed is taken as an example, and the original wind speed record is obtained by calibrating the three-cup wind speed sensor. Then, according to the GUM evaluation method, the uncertainty of the wind speed measurement result is analyzed and evaluated, And analyze and explore the correlation between the input quantities (considering the influence of the stability and uniformity of the wind tunnel on the measurement result, and the existence of a certain interdependence between them, an experimental plan was developed to test the stability and uniformity of the wind tunnel, and the correlation coefficient between them was calculated to be 0.1561 at the wind speed point of 10.00 m/s). Finally, the input quantities correlation (the correlation coefficient of wind tunnel stability and uniformity) is integrated into the uncertainty evaluation, and the uncertainty evaluation result is obtained at 10.00 m/s wind speed point (where U = 0.22 m/s, U 95 = 0.22 m/s). Through comparison, the uncertainty results evaluated without considering the correlation of input quantities have generated negative deviation, with deviation values being −0.00022 m/s. Due to the relatively small deviation, in practical applications, it can be determined whether to correct it based on the accuracy requirements of the measurement result and actual needs. • Evaluate the Measurement Uncertainty of three cup wind speed sensor. • Design an experimental plan to test the stability and uniformity of the wind tunnel. • Calculate the correlation coefficient between wind tunnel stability and uniformity. • Integrating the correlation coefficient between wind tunnel stability and uniformity into uncertainty evaluation. • Calculate the deviation of uncertainty without considering the correlation of input quantities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Snow cover and runoff play an important role in the Arctic environment, which is increasingly affected by climate change. Over the past 30 years, winter temperatures in northern Sweden have risen by 2 °C, accompanied by an increase in precipitation. This has led to a higher incidence of thaw–freeze and rain-on-snow events. Snow properties, such as the snow depth and longevity, and the timing of snowmelt in spring significantly impact the alpine tundra vegetation. The emergent vegetation at the edge of the snow patches during spring and summer constitutes an essential nutrient supply for reindeer. We have used Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) to determine the onset of the surface melt and the end of the snow cover in the core reindeer grazing area of the Laevás Sámi reindeer-herding community in northern Sweden. Using SAR data from March to August during the period 2017 to 2021, the start of the surface melt is identified by detecting the season's backscatter minimum. The end of the snow cover is determined using a threshold approach. A comparison between the results of the analysis of the end of the snow cover from Sentinel-1 and in situ measurements, for the years 2017 to 2020, derived from an automatic weather station located in Laevásvággi reveals a 2- to 10-day difference in the snow-free ground conditions, which indicates that the method can be used to investigate when the ground is free of snow. VH data are preferred to VV data due to the former's lower sensitivity to temporary wetting events. The outcomes from the season backscatter minimum demonstrate a distinct 25-day difference in the start of the runoff between the 5 investigated years. The backscatter minimum and threshold-based method used here serves as a valuable complement to global snowmelt monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Snow water equivalent (SWE) is a key variable in climate and hydrology studies. Yet, current SWE products mask out high-topography areas due to the coarse resolution of the satellite sensors used. The snow remote sensing community is hence pushing towards active-microwave approaches for global SWE monitoring. Designing a SWE retrieval algorithm is not trivial, as multiple combinations of snow microstructure representations and SWE can yield the same radar signal. Retrieval algorithm designs are converging towards forward modeling approaches using an educated first guess on the snowpack structure. Snow highly varies in space and time, especially in mountain environments where the complex topography affects atmospheric and snowpack state variables in numerous ways. In Canada, automatic weather stations are too sparse, and high-resolution numerical weather prediction systems have a maximal resolution of 2.5 km × 2.5 km, which is too coarse to capture snow spatial variability in a complex topography. In this study, we designed a subgridding framework for the Canadian High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS). The native 2.5 km × 2.5 km resolution forecast was subgridded to a 100 m × 100 m resolution and used as the input for snow modeling over two winters in Glacier National Park, British Columbia, Canada. Air temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, and wind speed were first parameterized regarding elevation using six automatic weather stations. We then used Alpine3D to spatialize atmospheric parameters and radiation input accounting for terrain reflections, and we performed the snow simulations. We evaluated modeled snowpack state variables relevant for microwave remote sensing against simulated profiles generated with automatic weather station data and compared them to simulated profiles driven by raw HRDPS data. The subgridding framework improves the optical grain size bias by 18 % on average and the modeled SWE by 16 % compared to simulations driven with raw HRDPS forecasts. This work could improve the snowpack radar backscattering modeling by up to 7 dB and serves as a basis for SWE retrieval algorithms using forward modeling in a Bayesian framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Synectic Aperture Radar (SAR) backscatter coefficient is sensitive to glacier surface physical characteristic changes, including the states of melting and refreezing, but it is also sensitive to incidence angle variation. This study explores the capability of monitoring Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) melting status with Sentinel-1 dual-polarized images by referring to Automatic Weather Station (AWS) records. Sentinel-1 SAR images at five coastal regions of the GrIS are obtained from 2017 to 2021. The backscatter coefficients are normalized to an incidence angle of 30° with an empirical model. Time series of five backscatter coefficients profiles covering AWS illustrates different patterns of the ice surface dielectric constant dynamics in different elevations. The wet snow radar zone shows clear backscatter coefficients decreasing during the melting seasons, but the bare ice radar zone behaves more complexly during the melting seasons. The numbers of melting days at different elevations are also derived for each profile based on −3 dB backscatter coefficient decrease of HH and/or HV polarization, showing the heterogeneous ablation processes over the GrIS. The daily maximum 2 m air temperature on two consecutive days (before and on the SAR acquisition day) exceeds 0°C, and the daily average 2 m air temperature exceeds −0.5°C on the SAR acquisition day that was recorded by the AWS finds good agreements with the −3 dB decrease of the backscatter coefficients, suggesting the GrIS surface melting can be well captured by dual-polarized Sentinel-1 C-band SAR images. The overall agreement and Kappa coefficients are mostly better than 0.85 and 0.70, respectively, for HH images and 0.80 and 0.60, respectively, for HV images, suggesting a better performance of the co-polarized image. High temporal resolution and wide-swath SAR sequence imagery provide suitable data sources for monitoring glacier surface melting-refreezing stats; further analysis is requested to quantitatively link the volume of melting with backscatter coefficient and other SAR data sources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our study and analysis of the distribution differences in raindrop spectra in a Guizhou precipitation prediction model were of great significance for understanding precipitation microphysical processes and improving radar quantitative precipitation prediction. This article selected the Dafang, Majiang, and Luodian stations at different altitudes in Guizhou and analyzed the distribution characteristics of precipitation particles at different altitudes. This article used precipitation data from the new-generation Doppler weather radar, OTT-Parsivel laser raindrop spectrometer, and automatic meteorological observation stations in Guiyang via M-P and GAMMA and established methods to fit the particle size of raindrop spectrum precipitation. Based on the LSTM neural network method, we constructed a precipitation prediction model for Guizhou and conducted performance testing. The results show that (1) the precipitation particles at the three stations are all concentrated in small particle size areas, with a peak value of 0.312 mm and a final falling velocity of 1–5 m/s, and the particle size increases with a decreasing altitude. The contribution rate to the density of particles with a precipitation particle size of less than 1 mm exceeds 80% and decreases with a decreasing altitude. The average volume diameter of precipitation particles has the highest correlation with the precipitation intensity. (2) In the fitting of the raindrop spectrum distribution, the GAMMA distribution fitted by the three stations has a better effect and the fitting effect gradually improves with an increasing altitude. (3) In precipitation prediction for convective clouds and stratiform clouds, the 60 min prediction results are the most consistent with the actual precipitation, with correlation coefficients of 0.9287 and 0.9257, respectively, indicating that the prediction has high reliability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we investigate the seasonal and diurnal variations in cloud occurrence frequency, as well as cloud vertical structure (CVS) characteristics under different seasons and precipitation intensities over the Guangzhou region in South China, based on the analysis of millimeter-wave cloud radar (MMCR) and ground automatic weather station rainfall observations from May 2019 to August 2021. The results showed that the occurrence frequency of clouds exhibits a bimodal distribution throughout the year, with peaks in March to June and October, reaching its highest occurrence in May at approximately 80% and its lowest from December to February at around 40%. Additionally, there are distinct diurnal variations in occurrence frequency, with the lowest rates occurring around 0005 LST, rapidly increasing after 0006 LST, and peaking during the afternoon to evening hours. Cloud top height (CTH) shows bimodal distributions during the pre-flood and post-flood seasons. The most frequently occurring range of CTH during the pre-flood season is below 3 km, accounting for approximately 43%, while during the post-flood season, it ranges from 11 to 14 km, constituting about 37%. For precipitation clouds, CTH can extend beyond 12 km, with the radar reflectivity decreasing gradually with increasing height. The highest frequencies of radar echoes are observed below 2 km and between 4 and 7 km, exhibiting clear diurnal variations, with echoes mainly below 2 km and between 4 to 6 km during the early morning, intensifying and shifting to higher altitudes during the day and reaching their maximum below 4 km during the afternoon to nighttime hours, while both the frequency and intensity increase in the height range of 4 to 12 km. Vertical profiles of radar reflectivity and cloud ice/liquid water content (IWC/LWC) exhibit similar trends under different precipitation intensities. The main differences are observed below 4 km, where both radar reflectivity and IWC/LWC generally increase with increasing precipitation intensity. These findings contribute to a better understanding of cloud characteristics in the South China region, enhance the accuracy of model simulations, and provide a scientific basis for accurate forecasting and warning of meteorological disasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ERA5 climate reanalysis dataset plays an important role in applications such as monitoring and modeling climate system changes in polar regions, so the calibration of the reanalysis to ground observations is of great relevance. Here, we compare the 2 m air temperature time series of the ERA5 reanalysis and the near-surface bias-corrected reanalysis to the near-ground air temperature measured at 17 automatic weather stations (AWSs) in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica. We find that the reanalysis data have biases that change with the season of the year and do not clearly correlate with elevation. Our results show that future work should rely on secondary observations to calibrate when using the ERA5 reanalysis in polar regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heat is the leading cause of weather-related death in the United States. Wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) is a heat stress index commonly used among active populations for activity modification, such as outdoor workers and athletes. Despite widespread use globally, WBGT forecasts have been uncommon in the United States until recent years. This research assesses the accuracy of WBGT forecasts developed by NOAA's Southeast Regional Climate Center (SERCC) and the Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments (CISA). It also details efforts to refine the forecast by accounting for the impact of surface roughness on wind using satellite imagery. Comparisons are made between the SERCC/CISA WBGT forecast and a WBGT forecast modeled after NWS methods. Additionally, both of these forecasts are compared with in situ WBGT measurements (during the summers of 2019–21) and estimates from weather stations to assess forecast accuracy. The SERCC/CISA WBGT forecast was within 0.6°C of observations on average and showed less bias than the forecast based on NWS methods across North Carolina. Importantly, the SERCC/CISA WBGT forecast was more accurate for the most dangerous conditions (WBGT > 31°C), although this resulted in higher false alarms for these extreme conditions compared to the NWS method. In particular, this work improved the forecast for sites more sheltered from wind by better accounting for the influences of land cover on 2-m wind speed. Accurate forecasts are more challenging for sites with complex microclimates. Thus, appropriate caution is necessary when interpreting forecasts and onsite, real-time WBGT measurements remain critical. Significance Statement: This research assesses the accuracy of wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) forecasts. WBGT is a heat stress index that accounts for impacts of air temperature, humidity, wind, and radiation. It is widely used in occupational, athletic, and military settings for heat stress assessment, yet WBGT forecasting in the United States is a relatively new development. These forecasts can be used by decision-makers to better plan activities. We found that WBGT forecasts by NOAA's Southeast Regional Climate Center and Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments were within 0.6°C of observations overall in North Carolina and less biased than forecasts based on methods used by the U.S. National Weather Service, which had larger, colder biases that present potential safety issues in planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDV) are home to a unique microbial ecosystem that is dependent on the availability of freshwater. This is a polar desert and freshwater originates almost entirely from surface and near-surface melt of the cold-based glaciers. Understanding the future evolution of these environments requires the simulation of the full chain of physical processes from net radiative forcing, surface energy balance, melt, runoff and transport of meltwater in stream channels from the glaciers to the terminal lakes where the microbial community resides. To establish a new framework to do this, we present the first application of WRF-Hydro/Glacier in the MDV, which as a fully distributed hydrological model has the capability to resolve the streams from the glaciers to the bare land that surround them. Given that meltwater generation in the MDV is almost entirely dependent on small changes in the energy balance of the glaciers, the aim of this study is to optimize the multi-layer snowpack scheme that is embedded in WRF-Hydro/Glacier to ensure that the feedbacks between albedo, snowfall and melt are fully resolved. To achieve this, WRF-Hydro/Glacier is implemented at a point scale using automatic weather station data on Commonwealth Glacier to physically model the onset, duration and end of melt over a 7-month period (1 August 2021 to 28 February 2022). To resolve the limited energetics controlling melt, it was necessary to (1) limit the percolation of meltwater through the ice layers in the multi-layer snowpack scheme and (2) optimize the parameters controlling the albedo of both snow and ice over the melt season based on observed spectral signatures of albedo. These modifications enabled the variability of broadband albedo over the melt season to be accurately simulated and ensured that modelled surface and near-surface temperatures, surface height change and runoff were fully resolved. By establishing a new framework that couples a detailed snowpack model to a fully distributed hydrological model, this work provides a stepping stone to model the spatial and temporal variability of melt and streamflow in the future, which will enable some of the unknown questions about the hydrological connectivity of the MDV to be answered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The natural variability of directly observed soil thermal conductivity was low. • Soil moisture can explain at least 50 % of soil thermal conductivity variability. • The effect of soil thermal conductivity on active layer thickness was insignificant. • Active layer thickness negatively correlates with soil moisture. The knowledge of soil thermal properties is important for determining how a soil will behave under changing climate conditions, especially in the sensitive environment of permafrost affected soils. This paper represents the first complex study of the interplay between the different parameters affecting soil thermal conductivity of soils in Antarctica. Antarctic Peninsula is currently the most rapidly warming region of the whole Antarctica, with predictions of this warming to continue in the upcoming decades. This study focuses on James Ross Island, where the Abernethy Flats automatic weather station is located in a lowland area with semi-arid climate. Air and ground temperature, soil heat flux and soil moisture during the thawing season were monitored on this site from 2015 to 2023. Moreover, two approaches to determining soil thermal conductivity were compared – laboratory measurements and calculation from field data. During this period, mean annual temperatures have increased dramatically for both air (from −6.9 °C in 2015/2016 to −3.8 °C in 2022/2023) and ground (from −6.5 °C to −3.2 °C), same as active layer thickness (from 68 cm to 95 cm). Average soil thermal conductivity for the thawing period reached values between 0.49 and 0.74 W/m.K−1 based on field data. Statistically significant relationships were found between the seasonal means of volumetric water content and several other parameters – soil thermal conductivity (r = 0.91), thawing degree days (r = −0.87) and active layer thickness (r = −0.88). Although wetter soils generally have a higher conductivity, the increase in temperature exhibits a much stronger control over the active layer thickening, also contributing to the overall drying of the upper part of the soil profile. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) onboard polar-orbiting satellites are considered to be the most effective satellite data in terms of obviously reducing operational prediction errors. However, there are still significant difficulties in the application of AMSU-A low-level channel data assimilation over land. One of them is the inaccurate surface skin temperature (SKT) of the background on land areas, which leads to significant uncertainty in the accuracy of simulating brightness temperature (BT) in these channels. Therefore, improving the accuracy of SKT in the background field is a direct way to improve the assimilation effect of these low-level channel data over land. In this study, both high-spatio-temporal-resolution automatic weather station (AWS) observation data from China in September 2021 and the AMSU-A observation data from NOAA-15/18/19 and MetOp-A were used. Based on the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF-ARW) and Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) assimilation system, we first analyzed the differences in SKT between AWS observations and model simulations and then attempted to directly replace the simulated SKT with the observation data. On this basis, the differences in BT simulation effects over the land area of Southwest China before and after replacement were meticulously analyzed and compared. In addition, the impacts of SKT replacement in areas with different terrain elevations and in cloudy areas were also evaluated. The results indicate that the SKTs of background fields were generally lower than the surface observations, whereas the diurnal variation in SKT was not well simulated. After replacing the SKT of the background field with station observations, the BT differences between the observation and background (O–B, observation minus background) were remarkably reduced, especially for channels 3–5 and 15 of the AMSU-A. The volume of data passing the GSI quality control significantly increased, and the standard deviation of O–B decreased. Further analysis showed that the improvement effect was better in areas at an elevation above 1600 m. Moreover, introducing SKT observations leads to a significant and stable improvement over BT simulations in cloudy areas over land. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]