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Low-carbon is a part of China's efforts to pursue the national strategy of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality." Meanwhile, the path of low-carbon transformation of logistics has become a topic of global concern. This study constructs a technical framework of logistics carbon emissions (LCE), which is composed of carbon emission evaluation, carbon emission prediction and low-carbon strategy. All 13 prefecture-level cities in Jiangsu, China, are the application objects in empirical research. Then, the influence analysis of the LCE efficiency based on the panel Tobit model and the evolution of LCE under different scenarios are explored. The results show that: (ⅰ) during the study period (2013–2020), the LCE in Jiangsu showed an overall upward trend, with Xuzhou, Suzhou and Nanjing being the cities with the highest carbon emissions; (ⅱ) the static efficiency of LCE in Jiangsu is at a medium level, with fluctuations in Suzhou, Changzhou, Zhenjiang, Nantong, and Suqian caused by the technical change index; (ⅲ) economic level, industrial structure, fixed asset utilization rate, and ecological environment in Jiangsu are significantly positively correlated with LCE efficiency, while education popularization and energy intensity are negative; (ⅳ) LCE in Jiangsu has been drastically reduced in the low-carbon scenario compared to the baseline scenario. On the above basis, this study proposes suggestions for the low-carbon development strategies of logistics in Jiangsu. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]