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The low-carbon economic operation of integrated energy systems (IES) cannot be separated from the carbon trading and green certificate trading market. Therefore, a low-carbon market mechanism and optimization method for IES is proposed. First, we establish a "green-carbon" offset mechanism to realize the conversion from tradable green certificate (TGC) to carbon quotas to offset system's carbon emissions. Second, considering the impact of market incentives and users' consumption behavior on IES, an energy management method of IES is put forward based on Stackelberg game. IES operators as leaders decide energy prices and trading strategies of carbon, TGC and multi-energy. Energy users as followers participate in the integrated demand response based on energy price. The game is solved by an improved adaptive catastrophic genetic algorithm and CPLEX solver. Finally, we take an industrial park in China as an example to analyze. The results show that the proposed method can significantly reduce the system's carbon emissions while improving the benefits for both IES and consumers. • A mechanism is proposed to offset system carbon emissions with green certificates. • An intelligent pricing and optimal method is proposed based on Stackelberg game. • Carbon capture and power-to-gas technology are used to reduce carbon emissions. • Key parameters sensitivity of the offset mechanism is analyzed for specific cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Real-time industrial carbon emission estimation aims to estimate emissions more accurately to promote carbon reduction and mitigate climate change. Compared with input-output-based (IOA) analysis methods, the process-based analysis (PA) methods provide more specific information to decision-makers based on extensive detailed data. However, the required data is hard to obtain and normally contains missing data. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a novel deep learning-based carbon emission estimation framework to track the emissions of industrial customers in smart grids with smart meter data. The proposed framework encompasses three pivotal stages: data imputation, device recognition, and emission estimation—collectively referred to as DI-DR-EE. Specifically, the Data Imputation Network (DINet) based on super-resolution perception (SRP) is first introduced to recover the missing smart meter data. Then the recovered data is used to recognize the device states through the Device Recognition Network (DRNet), which thrives upon subspace blueprint separable convolutions (BSConv-S) to elevate the accuracy of device recognition with low-frequency data, all the while optimizing computational efficiency. Finally, the direct emission estimation is conducted based on the device states, and the indirect emission is estimated based on the power consumption. Case studies with five factories connected to the IEEE 57-bus system have verified the effectiveness of the proposed framework. The model training process was executed using Python with PyTorch version 1.8.1, coupled with Cuda 11.1 for accelerated computations. Results underscore that DINet and DRNet outperform established benchmarks, while DI-DR-EE remarkably maintains its capacity to attain estimations within a 10% margin of error, even when grappling with up to 90% missing meter data. • A novel deep learning-based carbon emission estimation framework is proposed to track the emissions of industrial customers. • A Data Imputation Network (DINet) is introduced to reconstruct missing data more efficiently. • A Device Recognition Network (DRNet) is proposed to identify the device states more accurately. • Real-time emission estimation is realized even with incomplete and low-frequency smart meter data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]