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This article uses a Polanyian frame to place the plight of Roma in Europe in the context of an age of crisis, as evidenced by faltering neoliberal economies and a corresponding rise in xenophobia and extreme manifestations of nationalism. The situation of the Roma remains precarious, a situation exacerbated by the 2008 economic crises and the COVID-pandemic. Despite a number of social inclusion measures in recent decades, at the national and European level which target the Roma, Roma exclusion remains a serious challenge. The paper assesses why previous policy regimes failed but also reflects on what is the way forward in terms of inclusive policy frameworks. The article seeks to provide some answers to these questions with a vision of a Polanyian countermovement in the form of a New Social Europe predicated on redistribution, recognition and community action but also a re-envisioning of integration and transformative change in structural and cultural terms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The housing independence of young adults has become more complex and uncertain in Europe over the last decades. Previous research suggests that patterns of independent living and housing demand have become more differentiated and socially stratified, especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC). The decline in homeownership and the availability of social housing has been accompanied by an increase in private renting and shared accommodation. Moreover, young adults have increasingly relied on their parents for both material and non material support to overcome constraints and achieve independent living. This paper examines how the relationship between parental background and both young adults' leaving home, and their first housing tenure changed during the GFC in different European housing contexts. Using longitudinal data from EU-SILC (2008–2018), the results show that parental background still plays a significant stratifying role in the housing independence of young adults from the pre – to the post-crisis period, particularly in terms of first tenure status rather than home-leaving. The influence of the housing context on both housing market opportunities and the role of parents in young adults' independence shapes the shift from co-residence with parents to living independently in either homeownership or rented accommodation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the past decade, world economic development was coupled with disruptive challenges. Among them, digitalisation and new forms of globalisation represent a potential threat for economic growth opportunities and for the future of labour markets. Digital transition calls for the assessment of the impact of robotisation and digitalisation on skill composition, employment levels, productivity and growth dynamics. In turn, the largest wave of globalisation after that taking place before the First World War caused, first, the emergence of global value chains and, more recently, their disintegration with partial mechanisms of reshoring, with consequences for growth and employment opportunities. All these challenges call for comprehensive approaches to their modelling. This paper presents the main advances introduced in the fifth generation of the MAcroeconomic, Sectoral, Social, Territorial (MASST5) model, which carved a relevant niche in the empirical literature on macro-econometric regional growth, and has now been strengthened to model future digitalisation transitions, as well as the national and regional breakdown of the way global value chains will reorganise. A longer time series, especially in the regional submodel, also allows one to take the major changes taking place in Europe following the 2007–08 financial crisis, and the 2020 COVID-induced contraction into account. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to provide an update on the development of the long‐term relative poverty rate in Europe. We use European Statistics on Income and Living Conditions data (EU‐SILC) for 26 European countries between 2009 and 2018. In addition to describing the development of long‐term poverty, we also analyse the drivers of poverty on the country level via fixed effects panel regression analysis. We are particularly interested in how economic growth, employment rates, social expenditure, and short‐term poverty rates are related to long‐term poverty. Overall, the results show that long‐term poverty has increased in 13 out of 26 countries, but was unchanged or decreased in 13 countries. Gross domestic product growth is not related to the development of long‐term poverty. However, we find that male employment and social welfare expenditure reduce poverty rates. Furthermore, short‐term poverty is negatively associated with long‐term poverty. Hence, short‐term poverty and long‐term poverty rather substitute than complement each other. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Road is the dominant mode of transport, and most investment in road infrastructure is undertaken by governments. Fiscal policy considerations exert therefore a profound impact on the size and quality of road networks. To understand the observed steep downtrends and volatility in road infrastructure investment in Europe since the financial crisis, this paper presents long- and shorter-term panel data analyses of their determinants. The results suggest that investment in road infrastructure is used by governments as an instrument to address fiscal debt sustainability concerns and to smooth out swings in government debt. Investment in road infrastructure also competes with other types of government investment, with a high negative elasticity with respect to investment in health and education. These results are striking in light of the high social cost of congestion, accidents, and other related negative externalities, but their welfare implications are not straight-forward to infer, including as higher road infrastructure investment may only have a limited and variable impact on congestion due to induced travel demand. • Road infrastructure investment has plummeted in Europe since the financial crisis. • That downtrend reflects fiscal sustainability concerns. • Investment in roads also competes for funds against other government investment. • New road capacity alone will not resolve Europe's high congestion costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is an essential index to measure international dry bulk shipping freight, which can reflect global economic changes to a certain extent. Accurate forecasting of BDI supports shipping market participants in grasping risks and making scientific decisions. Based on the Prophet model, this paper considers the impact of multi-dimensional significant events related to the shipping industry and conducts BDI forecasting research. Firstly, we simulate the most momentous events in the world in recent years, namely the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the 2019 New Crown Epidemic, and utilize the Prophet model to decompose the BDI sequence into three parts: trend, seasonality, and momentous event shocks. Secondly, we extensively collect other multi-dimensional significant event uncertainty indexes to establish a "significant event database". The Maximal Information Coefficient and Boruta methods were employed to extract the uncertainty index particularly correlated with BDI as an exogenous variable for forecasting. Then, we employ the K-Shape method to cluster exogenous variables and explore the combined sense of clustering. Finally, we utilize the Prophet model to forecast BDI in stages. It discusses the influence of exogenous variables and their cluster combinations on the forecasting effect individually and sequentially. Empirical results show that considering the two momentous events of the Financial Crisis and COVID-19 can remarkably improve the accuracy of BDI forecasting. In addition, the study of exogenous variable significance found that during the Financial Crisis, economic policy uncertainty in Europe and the Americas greatly impacted BDI forecasting. During COVID-19, global and developed economic policy uncertainty was noteworthy in the BDI forecasting. The comparative experimental results show the Prophet model has an exemplary forecasting result and strong robustness. It also performs excellently in model generalization and interpretability. This paper proposes a reliable and advanced algorithm for shipping freight rate index forecasting, which has noteworthy reference value for shipping market participants to make investment decisions and risk avoidance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]