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Due to the imbalance in the supply and demand of agricultural land, there is an increasing trend of land resources being remoted utilized across regions. Within the context of regional trade, changes in the agroecosystem service value (ESV) can be used to assess consumer responsibility. However, the embodied flow of ESV and its driving factors have been largely unexplored. This paper, utilizing the latest Chinese multi-regional input-output tables and the equivalence factor method, explores the spatiotemporal characteristics of embodied agricultural land and ESV flow between Guangdong and 30 other provinces, and further seeks to construct three types of embodied ESV models to reveal the driving factors. The findings reveal that during the process of domestic trade in goods and services, Guangdong Province has an inflow of 2.10 × 107 hm2 of land from other provinces, with arable land, forestland, and grassland accounting for 25, 61, and 14%, respectively. Guangdong's utilization of ESV is mainly dependent on external inflows, with minimal local consumption and outflows. The embodied ESV between Guangdong and other provinces is 1626.10 billion yuan, with an outflow of 325.32 billion yuan. The "Y"-shaped region consisting of the northwest, northeast, southwest, and Hainan bears significant potential ESV losses for Guangdong Province. Population growth and the intensity of ESV loss will promote the flow of cropland and forestland ESV, while economic development has a certain inhibitory effect on ESV transfer. This paper provides a new analytical perspective on issues such as the spatial distribution mismatch of land resources and ecologically unequal exchange. These insights are pivotal for promoting sustainable utilization of land resources and regional equity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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As one of the four major bay areas in the world, the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) is a highly integrated mega urban agglomeration and its unparalleled urbanization has induced prominent land contradictions between humans and nature, which hinders its sustainability and has become the primary concern in this region. In this paper, we probed the historical characteristics of land use and land cover change (LUCC) in the GBA from 2005 to 2015, and forecasted its future land use pattern for 2030, 2050, and 2070, using a cellular automata–Markov (CA–Markov) model, under three typical tailored scenarios, i.e., urban development (UD), cropland protection (CP), and ecology security (ES), for land use optimization. The major findings are as follows: (1) The encroachments of build-up land on the other land uses under rapid urbanization accounted for the leading forces of LUCCs in the past decade. Accordingly, the urban sprawl was up to 1441.73 km2 (23.47%), with cropland, forest land, and water areas reduced by 570.77 km2 (4.38%), 526.05 km2 (1.76%), and 429.89 km2 (10.88%), respectively. (2) Based on the validated CA–Markov model, significant differences are found in future land use patterns under multiple scenarios, with the discrepancy magnified over time and driven by different orientations. (3) Through comprehensive comparisons and tradeoffs, the ES scenario mode seems optimal for the GBA in the next decades, which optimizes the balance between socio-economic development and ecological protection. These results serve as an early warning for future land problems and can be applied to land use management and policy formulation to promote the sustainable development of the GBA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]