Search

The expansion and upgrade of the global network of ground-based gravitational wave detectors promises to improve our capacity to infer the sky-localization of transient sources, enabling more effective multi-messenger follow-ups. At the same time, the increase in the signal-to-noise ratio of detected events allows for more precise estimates of the source parameters. This study aims to assess the performance of advanced-era networks of ground-based detectors, focusing on the Hanford, Livingston, Virgo, and KAGRA instruments. We use full Bayesian parameter estimation procedures to predict the scientific potential of a network. Assuming a fixed LIGO configuration, we find that the addition of the Virgo detector is beneficial to the sky localization starting from a binary neutron star horizon distance of 20 Mpc and improves significantly from 40 Mpc onwards for both a single and double LIGO detector network, reducing the inferred mean sky-area by up to 95%. Similarly, the KAGRA detector tightens the constraints, starting from a sensitivity range of 10 Mpc. Looking at highly-spinning binary black holes, we find significant improvements with increasing sensitivity in constraining the intrinsic source parameters when adding Virgo to the two LIGO detectors. Finally, we also examine the impact of the low-frequency cut-off data on the signal-to-noise ratio. We find that existing 20 Hz thresholds are sufficient and propose a metric to monitor this to study detector performance. Our findings quantify how future enhancements in detector sensitivity and network configurations will improve the localization of gravitational wave sources and allow for more precise identification of their intrinsic properties.

It has become increasingly useful to answer questions in gravitational-wave astronomy using transdimensional models where the number of free parameters can be varied depending on the complexity required to fit the data. Given the growing interest in transdimensional inference, we introduce a new package for the Bayesian inference Library (Bilby) called tBilby. The tBilby package allows users to set up transdimensional inference calculations using the existing Bilby architecture with off-the-shelf nested samplers and/or Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms. Transdimensional models are particularly helpful when we seek to test theoretically uncertain predictions described by phenomenological models. For example, bursts of gravitational waves can be modelled using a superposition of N wavelets where N is itself a free parameter. Short pulses are modelled with small values of N whereas longer, more complicated signals are represented with a large number of wavelets stitched together. Other transdimensional models have found use describing instrumental noise and the population properties of gravitational-wave sources. We provide a few demonstrations of tBilby, including fitting the gravitational-wave signal GW150914 with a superposition of N sine-Gaussian wavelets. We outline our plans to further develop the tbilby code suite for a broader range of transdimensional problems., Comment: 12 pages, 7 figures

In astronomy, we frequently face the decision problem: does this data contain a signal? Typically, a statistical approach is used, which requires a threshold. The choice of threshold presents a common challenge in settings where signals and noise must be delineated, but their distributions overlap. Gravitational-wave astronomy, which has gone from the first discovery to catalogues of hundreds of events in less than a decade, presents a fascinating case study. For signals from colliding compact objects, the field has evolved from a frequentist to a Bayesian methodology. However, the issue of choosing a threshold and validating noise contamination in a catalogue persists. Confusion and debate often arise due to the misapplication of statistical concepts, the complicated nature of the detection statistics, and the inclusion of astrophysical background models. We introduce Conformal Prediction (CP), a framework developed in Machine Learning to provide distribution-free uncertainty quantification to point predictors. We show that CP can be viewed as an extension of the traditional statistical frameworks whereby thresholds are calibrated such that the uncertainty intervals are statistically rigorous and the error rate can be validated. Moreover, we discuss how CP offers a framework to optimally build a meta-pipeline combining the outputs from multiple independent searches. We introduce CP with a toy cosmic-ray detector, which captures the salient features of most astrophysical search problems and allows us to demonstrate the features of CP in a simple context. We then apply the approach to a recent gravitational-wave Mock Data Challenge using multiple search algorithms for compact binary coalescence signals in interferometric gravitational-wave data. Finally, we conclude with a discussion on the future potential of the method for gravitational-wave astronomy., Comment: 18 pages, 20 figures, accepted in Phys. Rev. D