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Small modifications in the chemical structure of ligands are known to dramatically change their ability to inhibit the activity of a protein. Unraveling the mechanisms that govern these dramatic changes requires scrutinizing the dynamics of protein–ligand binding and unbinding at the atomic level. As an exemplary case, we have studied Glycogen Synthase Kinase-3β (GSK-3β), a multifunctional kinase that has been implicated in a host of pathological processes. As such, there is a keen interest in identifying ligands that inhibit GSK-3β activity. One family of compounds that are highly selective and potent inhibitors of GSK-3β is exemplified by a molecule termed COB-187. COB-187 consists of a five-member heterocyclic ring with a thione at C2, a pyridine substituted methyl at N3, and a hydroxyl and phenyl at C4. We have studied the inhibition of GSK-3β by COB-187-related ligands that differ in a single heavy atom from each other (either in the location of nitrogen in their pyridine ring, or with the pyridine ring replaced by a phenyl ring), or in the length of the alkyl group joining the pyridine and the N3. The inhibition experiments show a large range of half-maximal inhibitory concentration (IC50) values from 10 nM to 10 μM, implying that these ligands exhibit vastly different propensities to inhibit GSK-3β. To explain these differences, we perform Markov State Modeling (MSM) using fully atomistic simulations. Our MSM results are in excellent agreement with the experiments in that they accurately capture differences in the binding propensities of the ligands. The simulations show that the binding propensities are related to the ligands’ ability to attain a compact conformation where their two aromatic rings are spatially close. We rationalize this result by sampling numerous binding and unbinding events via funnel metadynamics simulations, which show that indeed while approaching the bound state, the ligands prefer to be in their compact conformation. We find that the presence of nitrogen in the aromatic ring increases the probability of attaining the compact conformation. Protein–ligand binding is understood to be dictated by the energetics of interactions and entropic factors, like the release of bound water from the binding pockets. This work shows that changes in the conformational distribution of ligands due to atom-level modifications in the structure play an important role in protein–ligand binding.