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Anthropogenic pressure is increasing the variety and frequency of environmental disturbance events, limiting recovery and leading to long-term declines in wild plant and animal populations. Coral reefs and associated fish assemblages are inherently dynamic due to their susceptibility to a host of disturbances, but regional-scale nuances in the drivers of long-term change frequently remain poorly resolved. Here, we examine the effects of multiple potential drivers of change in coral reef fish assemblages across 4 inshore regions of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (GBRMP), Australia, over 12-14 years (2007-2021). Each region had a unique disturbance history, in conjunction with long-term changes in physical and habitat variables. Phases of recovery were apparent in the years between disturbance events at all locations, but these were not long enough to prevent substantial declines in reef fish density (by 33%-72%) and species richness (by 41%-75%) throughout the study period. The main drivers of change in fish assemblages varied among regions; however, the most rapid changes followed cyclone and flood events. Limited recovery periods resulted in temporal shifts in fish species composition from typically coral-associated to algae-associated. Most trophic groups declined in density except farmers, grazers, omnivores and parrotfish. No-take marine reserves (NTMRs) had small and inconsistent effects on total fish assemblages, but delivered benefits for fishery-targeted piscivores. Our findings suggest that coral reef responses to local stressors and cumulative escalating climate change impacts are highly variable at regional scales, and that small NTMRs are unlikely to mitigate the impacts of increasingly frequent climatic disturbances. Nearshore coral reefs worldwide are high-value habitats that are either already degraded or vulnerable to degradation and the loss of important fish groups. Global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions must be coupled with effective local management that can support the functioning and adaptive capacity of coral reefs., (© 2024 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Resilience-based management is essential to protect ecosystems in the Anthropocene. Unlike large-scale climate threats to Great Barrier Reef (GBR) corals, outbreaks of coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS; Acanthaster cf. solaris) can be directly managed through targeted culling. Here, we evaluate the outcomes of a decade of strategic COTS management in suppressing outbreaks and protecting corals during the 4th COTS outbreak wave at reef and regional scales (sectors). We compare COTS density and coral cover dynamics during the 3rd and 4th outbreak waves. During the 4th outbreak wave, sectors that received limited to no culling had sustained COTS outbreaks causing significant coral losses. In contrast, in sectors that received timely and sufficient cull effort, coral cover increased substantially, and outbreaks were suppressed with COTS densities up to six-fold lower than in the 3rd outbreak wave. In the Townsville sector for example, despite exposure to comparable disturbance regimes during the 4th outbreak wave, effective outbreak suppression coincided with relative increases in sector-wide coral cover (44%), versus significant coral cover declines (37%) during the 3rd outbreak wave. Importantly, these estimated increases span entire sectors, not just reefs with active COTS control. Outbreaking reefs with higher levels of culling had net increases in coral cover, while the rate of coral loss was more than halved on reefs with lower levels of cull effort. Our results also indicate that outbreak wave progression to adjoining sectors has been delayed, probably via suppression of COTS larval supply. Our findings provide compelling evidence that proactive, targeted, and sustained COTS management can effectively suppress COTS outbreaks and deliver coral growth and recovery benefits at reef and sector-wide scales. The clear coral protection outcomes demonstrate the value of targeted manual culling as both a scalable intervention to mitigate COTS outbreaks, and a potent resilience-based management tool to "buy time" for coral reefs, protecting reef ecosystem functions and biodiversity as the climate changes., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2024 Matthews et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)