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This study aims to characterize the high frequency radar and numerically simulated low-frequency filtered currents in the south-eastern Bay of Biscay (study area) using a K-means classification algorithm based on an improved Euclidean Distance calculation method that does not take missing values. The errors between observations and simulations was estimated and predicted based on this classification method. Results indicate that predominantly eastward (northward) currents over the Spanish (French) continental shelf/slope in winter and more variable currents in the west and south-west in summer. The model classification results for circulation characteristics are in relatively good agreement with HF radar results, especially for currents on the Spanish (French) shelf/slope. In addition, the probabilistic relationship between observed and modeled currents was explored, obtaining the probability of occurrence of modeled current groups when each group of observed currents occurs. Finally, predictions of model and observed current errors were made based on the classification results, and it was found that the predictions based on the classification of all data had the smallest errors, with a 17% improvement over the unclassified control experiment. This study provides a foundation for subsequent model error testing, forecast product improvement and data assimilation.

“Synergistic Observing Network for Ocean Prediction (SynObs)” was launched in 2022 as a project of the United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development to evaluate the importance of ocean observation systems and co-design the future evolution of the ocean observing network. SynObs is currently leading the flagship OSEs/OSSEs, an internationally coordinated activity in which observing system experiments (OSEs) and observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) are conducted using a variety of ocean and coupled atmosphere–ocean prediction systems to evaluate ocean observation impacts consistent across most prediction systems. The flagship OSEs/OSSEs comprises the ocean prediction (OP) OSEs for high-resolution ocean predictions, the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) OSEs for long-term lead-time coupled ocean–atmosphere predictions, and the OP OSSEs for evaluating new and future observing systems. SynObs plans to use the results of the flagship OSEs to contribute to the reports on the ocean observing network design made by international organizations and projects. Here, we introduce this initiative, and we report on some initial results. Some observation impacts consistent across four ocean prediction systems are found by a preliminary analysis of the analysis runs for the OP OSEs. For example, impacts of the altimetry data on the assimilated sea surface height (SSH) field are generally large in the westerly boundary current regions and around Antarctic Circumpolar Currents where SSH has large variability but are small in the tropical regions, despite the relatively large SSH variability there. The analysis also indicates the possibility that there are some characteristic differences in the observation impacts between low-resolution and eddy-resolving ocean prediction systems. Although OSE outputs of only four ocean prediction systems are available now, we will make further investigation, adding OSE outputs of other prediction systems that will be submitted in the near future.

Operational forecasts rely on accurate and timely observations and it is important that the ocean forecasting community demonstrates the impact of those observations to the observing community and its funders while providing feedback on requirements for the design of the ocean observing system. One way in which impact of new observations can be assessed is through Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs). Various satellite missions are being proposed to measure Total Surface Current Velocities (TSCV). This study uses OSSEs to assess the potential impact of assimilating TSCV observations. OSSEs have been performed using two global ocean forecasting systems; the Met Office’s (MetO) Forecasting Ocean Assimilation Model and the Mercator Ocean International (MOI) system. Developments to the individual systems, the design of the experiments and results have been described in two companion papers. This paper provides an intercomparison of the OSSEs results from the two systems. We show that global near surface velocity analysis root-mean-squared-errors (RMSE) are reduced by 20-30% and 10-15% in the MetO and MOI systems respectively, we also demonstrate that the percentage of particles forecast to be within 50 km of the true particle locations after drifting for 6 days has increased by 9%/7%. Furthermore, we show that the global subsurface velocities are improved down to 1500m in the MetO system and down to 400m in the MOI system. There are some regions where TSCV assimilation degrades the results, notably the middle of the gyres in the MetO system and at depth in the MOI system. Further tuning of the background and observation error covariances are required to improve performance in these regions. We also provide some recommendations on TSCV observation requirements for future satellite missions. We recommend that at least 80% of the ocean surface is observed in less than 4 to 5 days with a horizontal resolution of 20 to 50 km. Observations should be provided within one day of measurement time to allow real time assimilation and should have an accuracy of 10 cm/s in the along and across track direction and uncertainty estimates should be provided with each measurement.

Representing and forecasting global ocean velocities is challenging. Velocity observations are scarce and sparse, and are rarely assimilated in a global ocean configuration. Recently, different satellite mission candidates have been proposed to provide surface velocity measurements. To assess the impact of assimilating such data, Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) have been run in the Mercator Ocean International analysis and forecasting global 1/4° system. Results show that assimilating simulated satellite surface velocities in addition to classical observations has a positive impact on the predicted currents at the surface and below to some extent. Compared to an experiment that assimilates only the classical observations, the surface velocity root-mean-squared error (RMSE) is reduced, especially in the Tropics. From a certain depth depending on the region (e.g. 200 m in the Tropics) however, slight degradations can be spotted. Temperature and salinity RMSEs are generally slightly degraded except in the Tropics where there is a small improvement at the surface and sub-surface. Sea surface height results are mixed, with some areas having reduced RMSE and some increased. The OSSEs reported here constitute a first study and aim to provide first insights on the features that improve by assimilating surface velocity data, and those which need to be worked on.