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In August 2017, a smoke plume from wildfires in British Columbia and the Northwest Territories recirculated and persisted over northern Canada for over two weeks. We compared a full‐factorial set of NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE simulations of the plume to satellite retrievals of aerosol optical depth and carbon monoxide, finding that ModelE performance was dependent on the model configuration, and more so on the choice of injection height approach, aerosol scheme and biomass burning emissions estimates than to the choice of horizontal winds for nudging. In particular, ModelE simulations with free‐tropospheric smoke injection, a mass‐based aerosol scheme and comparatively high fire NOx emissions led to unrealistically high aerosol optical depth. Using paired simulations with and without fire emissions, we estimated that for 16 days over an 850,000 km2 region, the smoke decreased planetary boundary layer heights by between 253 and 547 m, decreased downward shortwave radiation by between 52 and 172 Wm−2, and decreased surface temperature by between 1.5°C and 4.9°C, the latter spanning an independent estimate from operational weather forecasts of a 3.7°C cooling. The strongest surface climate effects were for ModelE configurations with more detailed aerosol microphysics that led to a stronger first indirect effect. Plain Language Summary: Smoke from biomass burning is known to have effects on surface weather. We used the NASA GISS ModelE to estimate these effects for a large 2017 smoke plume over northern Canada that persisted for two weeks. We first found that the height of the smoke release at the source was the most important factor influencing agreement between ModelE and satellite retrievals of aerosols and carbon monoxide, and that specific, plausible configurations of the model led to unrealistically high aerosol amounts. By comparing simulations with and without fire, we estimated a 16‐day cooling over a 850,000 km2 region of between 1.5°C and 4.9°C, depending on the model configuration. Key Points: We captured the overall pattern and magnitude of a large 2017 smoke plume over Canada with the NASA GISS ModelEOf the sixteen plausible model configurations tested under a full‐factorial design, two with higher NOx emissions, free‐tropospheric smoke release and mass‐based aerosols led to unrealistically high aerosol optical depthOver an 850,000 km2 region, we estimated a 16‐day surface cooling of between 1.5°C and 4.9°C [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The new TROPESS (TRopospheric Ozone and its Precursors from Earth System Sounding) profile retrievals of carbon monoxide (CO) from the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) are evaluated against Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) CO version 9 data. Comparison results that were adjusted to common a priori constraints in the retrieval processes have improved agreement between the two data sets over direct comparisons. TROPESS-CrIS CO profiles are within 5 % of MOPITT but have higher concentrations in the lower troposphere and lower concentrations in the upper troposphere. For the intense western US wildfire events in September 2020, we compare CO fields simulated by the GISS climate model to the two satellite CO observations. We show intermediate steps of the comparison process to illustrate the evaluation of model simulations by deriving the "retrieved" model CO profiles as they would be observed by the satellite. This includes the application of satellite level-2 data along with their corresponding diagnostic operators provided in the TROPESS-CrIS and MOPITT products. The process allows a diagnosis of potential model improvements in modeling fire emissions and pollution transport. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using 10 years of satellite‐borne radar and lidar observations coupled with a novel method for automated occlusion identification, composite transects of cloud and precipitation across occluded thermal ridges of extratropical cyclones are, for the first time, constructed. These composites confirm that occluded sectors are characterized by the most extensive cloud cover and heaviest precipitation in any of the frontal regions of the cyclone. Hydrometeor frequency in occluded sectors is sensitive to the cyclone's ascent strength but not to the mean precipitable water in the cyclone's environment. This result is in contrast to the strong relationships between hydrometeor frequency and both precipitable water and ascent strength as previously reported in warm frontal regions. In both hemispheres, cloud and precipitation increase with the maximum value of the equivalent potential temperature at 700 hPa within the occluded thermal ridge, until a threshold is reached. For very large values of maximum equivalent potential temperature, hydrometeors become less frequent while precipitation rates increase. It is suggested that this conjunction is a by‐product of an increase in the frequency of convection in those instances. While in the Northern Hemisphere occluded sectors exhibit deeper and wider cloud structures than their Southern Hemisphere counterparts, their hydrometeor occurrence frequencies are less. The differences in maximum equivalent potential temperature of the thermal ridges in both hemispheres does not appear to explain the more frequent hydrometeors in the Southern Hemisphere. These relationships offer new perspectives on the interplay between cloud processes and cyclone evolution, as well as new observational constraints for process evaluation of Earth system models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shifts in Southern Ocean (SO, 40–85°S) shortwave cloud feedback (SWFB) toward more positive values are the dominant contributor to higher effective climate sensitivity (ECS) in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. To provide an observational constraint on the SO SWFB, we use a simplified physical model to connect SO SWFB with the response of column‐integrated liquid water mass (LWP) to warming and the susceptibility of albedo to LWP in 50 CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs. In turn, we predict the responses of SO LWP using a cloud‐controlling factor (CCF) model. The combination of the CCF model and radiative susceptibility explains about 50% of the variance in the GCM‐simulated SWFB in the SO. Observations of SW radiation fluxes, LWP, and CCFs from reanalysis are used to constrain the SO SWFB. Observations suggest a SO LWP increase in response to warming and albedo susceptibility to LWP that is on the lower end relative to GCMs. The overall constraint on the contribution of SO to global mean SWFB is −0.168 to +0.051 W m−2 K−1, relative to −0.277 to +0.270 Wm−2 K−1. In summary, observations suggest SO SWFB is less likely to be as extremely positive as predicted by some CMIP6 GCMs, but more likely to range from moderately negative to weakly positive. Plain Language Summary: Previous studies suggest that SO clouds reflect more sunlight in response to global warming and more strongly cool the planet ‐ a negative shortwave cloud feedback (SWFB). The SO SWFB in the latest generation of global climate models (GCMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) has shifted toward more positive values, leading to the larger predicted temperature responses to greenhouse gas increases in these GCMs. In this study, we examine if this more positive SWFB is consistent with observations. We connect the effect of SO clouds on reflected sunlight with the predicted response of cloud liquid content to global warming. The linkage between cloud liquid water content and large‐scale meteorology is applied to predict this cloud liquid response. Satellite observations of reflected sunlight, cloud liquid, and observations of large‐scale meteorology are applied to constrain the SO SWFB for 50 CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs. The results suggest that SO cloud liquid will increase with warming around the average of predictions of 50 GCMs. Satellite records suggest that SO SWFB is moderately negative to weakly positive, instead of extremely positive or negative as suggested by some GCMs. Key Points: Southern Ocean liquid water path increased over the past two decades due to enhanced moisture convergenceEnhanced moisture convergence contributes to a negative cloud feedback in the Southern OceanAcross global climate models, the sensitivity of upwelling shortwave to cloud opposes the sensitivity of cloud to moisture convergence [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]