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With close to three years of observations in hand, the NEID Earth Twin Survey (NETS) is starting to unearth new astrophysical signals for a curated sample of bright, radial velocity (RV)-quiet stars. We present the discovery of the first NETS exoplanet, HD 86728 b, a $m_p\sin i = 9.16^{+0.55}_{-0.56}\ \rm{M}_\oplus$ planet on a circular, $P=31.1503^{+0.0062}_{-0.0066}$ d orbit, thereby confirming a candidate signal identified by Hirsch et al. (2021). We confirm the planetary origin of the detected signal, which has a semi-amplitude of just $K=1.91^{+0.11}_{-0.12}$ m s$^{-1}$, via careful analysis of the NEID RVs and spectral activity indicators, and we constrain the mass and orbit via fits to NEID and archival RV measurements. The host star is intrinsically quiet at the $\sim1$ m s$^{-1}$ level, with the majority of this variability likely stemming from short-timescale granulation. HD 86728 b is among the small fraction of exoplanets with similar masses and periods that have no known planetary siblings., Comment: Submitted to AAS Journals. 18 pages, 10 figures, 3 tables, 1 appendix

A significant barrier to achieving the radial velocity (RV) measurement accuracy and precision required to characterize terrestrial mass exoplanets is the existence of time-variable features in the measured spectra, from both telluric absorption and stellar variability, which affect measured line shapes and can cause apparent RV shifts. Reaching the desired accuracy using traditional techniques often requires avoiding lines contaminated by stellar variability and/or changing tellurics, and thus discarding a large fraction of the spectrum, lowering precision. New data-driven methods can help achieve extremely precise and accurate RVs by enabling the use of a larger fraction of the available data. While there exist methods for modeling telluric features or the stellar variability individually, there is a need for additional tools that are capable of modeling them simultaneously at the spectral level. Here we present StellarSpectraObservationFitting.jl (SSOF), a Julia package for measuring Doppler shifts and creating data-driven models (with fast, physically-motivated Gaussian Process regularization) for the time-variable spectral features for both the telluric transmission and stellar spectrum, while accounting for the wavelength-dependent instrumental line-spread function. We demonstrate SSOF's state-of-the-art performance on data from the NEID RV spectrograph on the WIYN 3.5m Telescope for multiple stars. We show SSOF's, ability to accurately identify and characterize spectral variability and provide $\sim$2-6x smaller photon-limited errors over the NEID CCF-based pipeline and match the performance of SERVAL, a leading template-based pipeline, using only observed EPRV spectra., Comment: 47 pages, 21 figures, 7 tables. In revision for AAS Journals. Code at https://github.com/christiangil/StellarSpectraObservationFitting.jl

We present the results of Sun-as-a-star observations by the NEID Solar Telescope at WIYN Observatory, spanning January 1, 2021 through June 30, 2024. We identify 117,060 observations which are unlikely to be significantly affected by weather, hardware or major calibration issues. We describe several high-level data products being made available to the community to aid in the interpretation and inter comparisons of NEID solar observations. Solar observations demonstrate excellent performance of NEID, including radial velocity (RV) accuracy and long-term stability of better than $\simeq 0.37$ m s$^{-1}$ over $\simeq 3.5$ years, even though NEID was not originally designed or optimized for daytime observations of the Sun. Currently, intrinsic stellar variability is the primary barrier to detecting Earth-analog planets for most nearby, Sun-like stars. We present a comparison of the effectiveness of several methods proposed to mitigate the effects of solar variability on the Sun's estimated RV. We find that the Scalpels algorithm performs particularly well and substantially reduces the RMS RV of solar spectra from over 2 m s$^{-1}$ to 0.277 m s$^{-1}$. Even when training on a subset of days with NEID solar observations and testing on a held-out sample, the RMS of cleaned RV is 0.34-0.42 m s$^{-1}$. This is significantly better than previous attempts at removing solar variability and suggests that the current generation of EPRV instruments are technically capable of detecting Earth-mass planets orbiting a solar twin if provided with sufficient observing time allocations ($\sim 10^3$ nights of observations)., Comment: 25 pages, 14 figures. Submitted to AAS Journals. Data release archived at https://zenodo.org/doi/10.5281/zenodo.13363761

For solar-type stars, spots and their associated magnetic regions induce radial velocity perturbations through the Doppler rotation signal and the suppression of convective blueshift -- collectively known as rotation-modulation. We developed the Rotation-Convection (RC) model: a method of detrending and characterizing rotation-modulation, using only cross-correlation functions or 1-dimensional spectra, without the need for continuous high cadence measurements. The RC method uses a simple model for the anomalous radial velocity induced by an active region and has two inputs: stellar flux (or a flux proxy) and the relative radial velocity between strongly and weakly absorbed wavelengths (analogous to the bisector-inverse slope). On NEID solar data (three month baseline), the RC model lowers the amplitude of rotationally-modulated stellar activity to below the meter-per-second level. For the standard star HD 26965, the RC model detrends the activity signal to the meter-per-second level for HARPS, EXPRES, and NEID observations, even though the temporal density and timespan of the observations differs by an order of magnitude between the three datasets. In addition to detrending, the RC model also characterizes the rotation-modulation signal. From comparison with the Solar Dynamics Observatory, we confirmed that the model accurately recovers and separates the rotation and convection radial velocity components. We also mapped the amplitude of the rotation and convection perturbations as a function of height within the stellar atmosphere. Probing stellar atmospheres with our revised spot model will fuel future innovations in stellar activity mitigation, enabling robust exoplanet detection., Comment: Accepted to AJ, 22 pages, 9 figures

We present a new analysis of Kepler-21, the brightest (V = 8.5) Kepler system with a known transiting exoplanet, Kepler-21 b. Kepler-21 b is a radius valley planet ($R = 1.6\pm 0.2 R_{\oplus}$) with an Earth-like composition (8.38$\pm$1.62 g/cc), though its mass and radius fall in the regime of possible "water worlds." We utilize new Keck/HIRES and WIYN/NEID radial velocity (RV) data in conjunction with Kepler and TESS photometry to perform a detailed study of activity mitigation between photometry and RVs. We additionally refine the system parameters, and we utilize Gaia astrometry to place constraints on a long-term RV trend. Our activity analysis affirms the quality of Kepler photometry for removing correlated noise from RVs, despite its temporal distance, though we reveal some cases where TESS may be superior. Using refined orbital parameters and updated composition curves, we rule out a ``water world" scenario for Kepler-21 b, and we identify a long period super-Jupiter planetary candidate, Kepler-21 (c).

The Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) will seek to detect and characterize potentially Earth-like planets around other stars. To ensure that the mission achieves the Astro2020 Decadal's recommended goal of 25 exoEarth candidates (EECs), we must take into account the probabilistic nature of exoplanet detections and provide "science margin" to budget for astrophysical uncertainties with a reasonable level of confidence. In this study, we explore the probabilistic distributions of yields to be expected from a blind exoEarth survey conducted by such a mission. We identify and estimate the impact of all major known sources of astrophysical uncertainty on the exoEarth candidate yield. As expected, eta_Earth uncertainties dominate the uncertainty in EEC yield, but we show that sampling uncertainties inherent to a blind survey are another important source of uncertainty that should be budgeted for during mission design. We adopt the Large UV/Optical/IR Surveyor Design B (LUVOIR-B) as a baseline and modify the telescope diameter to estimate the science margin provided by a larger telescope. We then depart from the LUVOIR-B baseline design and identify six possible design changes that, when compiled, provide large gains in exoEarth candidate yield and more than an order of magnitude reduction in exposure times for the highest priority targets. We conclude that a combination of telescope diameter increase and design improvements could provide robust exoplanet science margins for HWO., Comment: 90 pages, 26 figures, 4 tables, Submitted to JATIS

We present an updated version of GRASS (the GRanulation And Spectrum Simulator, Palumbo et al. 2022) which now uses an expanded library of 22 solar lines to empirically model time-resolved spectral variations arising from solar granulation. We show that our synthesis model accurately reproduces disk-integrated solar line profiles and bisectors, and we quantify the intrinsic granulation-driven radial-velocity (RV) variability for each of the 22 lines studied. We show that summary statistics of bisector shape (e.g., bisector inverse slope) are strongly correlated with the measured anomalous, variability-driven RV at high pixel signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and spectral resolution. Further, the strength of the correlations vary both line by line and with the summary statistic used. These correlations disappear for individual lines at the typical spectral resolutions and SNRs achieved by current EPRV spectrographs; so we use simulations from GRASS to demonstrate that they can, in principle, be recovered by selectively binning lines that are similarly affected by granulation. In the best-case scenario (high SNR and large number of binned lines), we find that a $\lesssim$30$\%$ reduction in the granulation-induced root mean square (RMS) RV can be achieved, but that the achievable reduction in variability is most strongly limited by the spectral resolution of the observing instrument. Based on our simulations, we predict that existing ultra-high-resolution spectrographs, namely ESPRESSO and PEPSI, should be able to resolve convective variability in other, bright stars., Comment: 20 + 16 pages, 6 + 11 figures, 4 tables; in revision for AJ

We revisit the long-studied radial velocity (RV) target HD26965 using recent observations from the NASA-NSF 'NEID' precision Doppler facility. Leveraging a suite of classical activity indicators, combined with line-by-line RV analyses, we demonstrate that the claimed 45-day signal previously identified as a planet candidate is most likely an activity-induced signal. Correlating the bulk (spectrally-averaged) RV with canonical line activity indicators confirms a multi-day 'lag' between the observed activity indicator time series and the measured RV. When accounting for this lag, we show that much of the observed RV signal can be removed by a linear detrending of the data. Investigating activity at the line-by-line level, we find a depth-dependent correlation between individual line RVs and the bulk RVs, further indicative of periodic suppression of convective blueshift causing the observed RV variability, rather than an orbiting planet. We conclude that the combined evidence of the activity correlations and depth dependence is consistent with a radial velocity signature dominated by a rotationally-modulated activity signal at a period of $\sim$42 days. We hypothesize that this activity signature is due to a combination of spots and convective blueshift suppression. The tools applied in our analysis are broadly applicable to other stars, and could help paint a more comprehensive picture of the manifestations of stellar activity in future Doppler RV surveys., Comment: 25 pages, 13 figures. Accepted in AJ

Recent discoveries of transiting giant exoplanets around M-dwarf stars (GEMS), aided by the all-sky coverage of TESS, are starting to stretch theories of planet formation through the core-accretion scenario. Recent upper limits on their occurrence suggest that they decrease with lower stellar masses, with fewer GEMS around lower-mass stars compared to solar-type. In this paper, we discuss existing GEMS both through confirmed planets, as well as protoplanetary disk observations, and a combination of tests to reconcile these with theoretical predictions. We then introduce the \textit{Searching for GEMS} survey, where we utilize multi-dimensional nonparameteric statistics to simulate hypothetical survey scenarios to predict the required sample size of transiting GEMS with mass measurements to robustly compare their bulk-density with canonical hot-Jupiters orbiting FGK stars. Our Monte-Carlo simulations predict that a robust comparison requires about 40 transiting GEMS (compared to the existing sample of $\sim$ 15) with 5-$\sigma$ mass measurements. Furthermore, we discuss the limitations of existing occurrence estimates for GEMS, and provide a brief description of our planned systematic search to improve the occurrence rate estimates for GEMS., Comment: 16 pages + references, including 7 figures. Accepted in AAS Journals