1. Global Nitrogen Needs to Improve Wheat Yield Under Climate Change
- Author
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Pierre Martre, Sibylle Dueri, Jose Rafael Guarin, Frank Ewert, Heidi Webber, Daniele Calderini, Gemma Molero, Matthew Reynolds, Daniel Miralles, Guillermo Garcia, Hamish Brown, Mike George, Rob Craigie, Jean-Pierre Cohan, Jean-Charles Deswarte, Gustavo Slafer, Francesco Giunta, Davide Cammarano, Roberto Ferrise, Thomas Gaiser, Yujing Gao, Zvi Hochman, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Leslie A. Hunt, Kurt C. Kersebaum, Claas Nendel, Gloria Padovan, Alex C. Ruane, Amit Kumar Srivastava, Tommaso Stella, Iwan Supit, Peter Thorburn, Enli Wang, Joost Wolf, Chuang Zhao, Zhigan Zhao, and Senthold Asseng
- Subjects
Meteorology and Climatology - Abstract
Increasing global food demand will require more food production without further exceeding the planetary boundaries, while at the same time adapting to climate change. We used an ensemble of wheat simulation models, with improved yield traits from the highest-yielding wheat genotypes to quantify potential yield gains and associated N requirements. This was explored for current and climate change scenarios across representative sites of major world wheat producing regions. The improved yield traits increased yield by 16% with current N fertilizer applications under both current climate and mid-century climate change scenarios. To achieve the full yield potential, a 52% increase in global average yield under a mid-century high warming climate scenario (RCP8.5), fertilizer use would need to increase fourfold over current use, which would unavoidably lead to higher environmental impacts from wheat production. Our results show the need to improve soil N availability and N use efficiency, along with yield potential.
- Published
- 2024