Search

Janick Weberpals,1 Sudha R Raman,2 Pamela A Shaw,3 Hana Lee,4 Massimiliano Russo,1 Bradley G Hammill,2 Sengwee Toh,5 John G Connolly,5 Kimberly J Dandreo,6 Fang Tian,7 Wei Liu,7 Jie Li,7 José J Hernández-Muñoz,7 Robert J Glynn,1 Rishi J Desai1 1Division of Pharmacoepidemiology and Pharmacoeconomics, Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA; 2Department of Population Health Sciences, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, NC, USA; 3Biostatistics Division, Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute, Seattle, WA, USA; 4Office of Biostatistics, Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, US Food and Drug Administration, Silver Spring, MD, USA; 5Department of Population Medicine, Harvard Medical School and Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute, Boston, MA, USA; 6Department of Population Medicine, Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute, Boston, MA, USA; 7Office of Surveillance and Epidemiology, Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, US Food and Drug Administration, Silver Spring, MD, USACorrespondence: Janick Weberpals, Instructor in Medicine, Division of Pharmacoepidemiology and Pharmacoeconomics, Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Harvard Medical School, 1620 Tremont Street, Suite 3030-R, Boston, MA, 02120, USA, Tel +1 617-278-0932, Fax +1 617-232-8602, Email jweberpals@bwh.harvard.eduObjective: Partially observed confounder data pose challenges to the statistical analysis of electronic health records (EHR) and systematic assessments of potentially underlying missingness mechanisms are lacking. We aimed to provide a principled approach to empirically characterize missing data processes and investigate performance of analytic methods.Methods: Three empirical sub-cohorts of diabetic SGLT2 or DPP4-inhibitor initiators with complete information on HbA1c, BMI and smoking as confounders of interest (COI) formed the basis of data simulation under a plasmode framework. A true null treatment effect, including the COI in the outcome generation model, and four missingness mechanisms for the COI were simulated: completely at random (MCAR), at random (MAR), and two not at random (MNAR) mechanisms, where missingness was dependent on an unmeasured confounder and on the value of the COI itself. We evaluated the ability of three groups of diagnostics to differentiate between mechanisms: 1)-differences in characteristics between patients with or without the observed COI (using averaged standardized mean differences [ASMD]), 2)-predictive ability of the missingness indicator based on observed covariates, and 3)-association of the missingness indicator with the outcome. We then compared analytic methods including “complete case”, inverse probability weighting, single and multiple imputation in their ability to recover true treatment effects.Results: The diagnostics successfully identified characteristic patterns of simulated missingness mechanisms. For MAR, but not MCAR, the patient characteristics showed substantial differences (median ASMD 0.20 vs 0.05) and consequently, discrimination of the prediction models for missingness was also higher (0.59 vs 0.50). For MNAR, but not MAR or MCAR, missingness was significantly associated with the outcome even in models adjusting for other observed covariates. Comparing analytic methods, multiple imputation using a random forest algorithm resulted in the lowest root-mean-squared-error.Conclusion: Principled diagnostics provided reliable insights into missingness mechanisms. When assumptions allow, multiple imputation with nonparametric models could help reduce bias.Keywords: electronic health records, missing data, diagnostics, imputation, analytics

Objective: We compared health care resource utilization (HCRU) and costs for inpatient and outpatient services and dispensed medications in older adults with type 2 diabetes initiating empagliflozin versus dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitors (DPP-4is)., Research Design and Methods: The study population included U.S. Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries with diabetes (age ≥65 years) initiating empagliflozin or DPP-4is (August 2014 to September 2018). We estimated rate ratios (RRs) for HCRU outcomes using zero-inflated negative binomial regression and per-member per-year (PMPY) cost differences using generalized linear model with gamma distributions, overall and stratified by baseline cardiovascular disease (CVD), after adjusting for 143 baseline covariates using 1:1 propensity score matching., Results: We identified 23,335 matched pairs (mean age 72 years, 51% with baseline CVD). HCRU rates were lower in empagliflozin versus DPP-4i initiators (number of inpatient days, RR 0.89 [95% CI 0.82, 0.97]; number of emergency department [ED] visits, 0.86 [0.82, 0.91]; number of hospitalizations, 0.86 [0.79, 0.93]; number of office visits, 0.96 [0.95, 0.98]). Inpatient cost (-$713 PMPY [95% CI -847, -579), outpatient cost (-$198 PMPY [-272, -124]), and total cost of care (-$1,109 PMPY [-1,478, -739]) were lower for empagliflozin versus DPP-4is, although diabetes medication cost was higher in empagliflozin initiators ($454 PMPY [95% CI 284, 567]). In the CVD subgroup, total cost was lower for empagliflozin initiators (-$2,005 PMPY [-2,451, -1,337]), while the difference was attenuated in the non-CVD subgroup (-$296 PMPY [-740, 148])., Conclusions: Among older adults with diabetes, empagliflozin was associated with a lower number of inpatient days, hospitalizations, ED visits, and office visits and with lower costs of care compared with DPP-4is, especially in those with history of CVD., (© 2024 by the American Diabetes Association.)

Background: Missing data in confounding variables present a frequent challenge in generating evidence using real-world data, including electronic health records (EHR). Our objective was to apply a recently published toolkit for characterizing missing data patterns and based on the toolkit results about likely missingness mechanisms, illustrate the decision-making process for analyses in an empirical case example., Methods: We utilized the Structural Missing Data Investigations (SMDI) toolkit to characterize missing data patterns in the context of a pharmacoepidemiology study comparing cardiovascular outcomes of initiating sodium-glucose-cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) and dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP-4i) among older adults. The study used a linked EHR-Medicare claims dataset from Duke Health patients (2015-2017), focusing on partially observed confounders from EHR data (HbA1c lab and body mass index [BMI] values). Our analysis incorporated SMDI's descriptive functions and diagnostic tests to explore missingness patterns and determine missingness mitigation approaches. We used findings from these investigations to inform estimation of adjusted hazard ratios comparing the two classes of medications., Results: High levels of missingness were noted for important confounding variables including HbA1c (63.6%) and BMI (16.5%). Diagnostic tests resulted in output that described: 1) the distributions of patient characteristics, exposure, and outcome between patients with or without an observed value of the partially observed covariate, 2) the ability to predict missingness based on observed covariates, and 3) estimate if the missingness of a partially observed covariate is differential with respect to the outcome. There was evidence that missingness could be sufficiently described using observed data, which allowed multiple imputation by chained equations using random forests to address missing confounder data in estimating treatment effects. Multiple imputation resulted in improved alignment of effect estimates with previous studies., Conclusions: We were able to demonstrate the practical application of the SMDI toolkit in a real-world setting. Application of the SMDI toolkit and the resulting insights of potential missingness patterns can inform the choice of appropriate analytic methods and increase transparency of research methods in handling missing data. This type of approach can inform analytic decision making and may increase our ability to generate evidence from real-world data., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Competing Interests: Funding Support and Author Disclosures This study was funded by grant R01 HS027623 from the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Dr Bykov was also supported by National Institute of Health grant K01AG068365. Dr Bea was supported by a grant from the Korea Health Technology R&D Project through the Korea Health Industry Development Institute (KHIDI), funded by the Ministry of Health & Welfare, Republic of Korea (grant No. RS-2023-00273553). Dr Bykov has been a consultant for Alosa Health, unrelated to the study. Dr Huybrechts has been an investigator on grants to Brigham and Women’s Hospital from Takeda and UCB for unrelated work. All other authors have reported that they have no relationships relevant to the contents of this paper to disclose.

Targeted systemic immune-modulating drugs (IMDs) to treat atopic dermatitis (AD) were highly efficacious in randomized trials. Trials with limited number of subjects leave questions about their safety. We describe a data and analytics structure for the production of timely, high-quality evidence on the comparative safety of recently approved IMDs in patients with AD in clinical practice. We established a series of sequential propensity score (PS)-balanced cohorts that grow in size with each annual data refresh. Nine health outcomes of interest plus conjunctivitis as a positive tracer outcome were identified. The initial treatment comparison was dupilumab, an interleukin-4/13 inhibitor, or tralokinumab, an interleukin-13 inhibitor, versus abrocitinib/upadacitinib, both JAK inhibitors. The first analysis cycle (December 2021-February 2023) compared 269 patients initiating JAK inhibitors and 2,650 initiating IL-4/IL-13 inhibitors. Patient characteristics were well balanced after PS-matching. Outpatient infections within 180 days occurred in 18% of JAK-1 inhibitor initiators versus 12% of dupilumab/ tralokinumab initiators (RR=1.50; 0.96 to 2.33) whereas acne risks were 7% vs. 3%, respectively (RR=2.29, 0.96 to 5.46). This sequential monitoring system will produce essential knowledge on the safety of IMDs to treat AD based on its growing study size of patients observed in clinical practice., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Aim: Non-randomized studies on bariatric surgery have reported large reductions in mortality within 6-12 months after surgery compared with non-surgical patients. It is unclear whether these findings are the result of bias., Study Design and Setting: We searched PubMed to identify all non-randomized studies investigating the effect of bariatric surgery on all-cause mortality compared with non-surgical patients. We assessed these studies for potential confounding and time-related biases. We conducted bias analyses to quantify the effect of these biases., Results: We identified 21 cohort studies that met our inclusion criteria. Among those, 11 were affected by immortal time bias resulting from the misclassification or exclusion of relevant follow-up time. Five studies were subject to potential confounding bias because of a lack of adjustment for body mass index (BMI). All studies used an inadequate comparator group that lacked indications for bariatric surgery. Bias analyses to correct for potential confounding from BMI shifted the effect estimates towards the null [reported hazard ratio (HR): 0.78 vs. bias-adjusted HR: 0.92]. Bias analyses to correct for the presence of immortal time also shifted the effect estimates towards the null (adjustment for 2-year wait time: reported HR: 0.57 vs. bias-adjusted HR: 0.81)., Conclusion: Several important sources of bias were identified in non-randomized studies of the effectiveness of bariatric surgery versus non-surgical comparators on mortality. Future studies should ensure that confounding by BMI is accounted for, considering the choice of the comparator group, and that the design or analysis avoids immortal time bias from the misclassification or exclusion., (© 2024 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Blood pressure (BP) levels are important modifiable risk factors for incident cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, many adults are on anti-hypertensive medication (MEDS) which lowers their BP but is a marker for increased CVD risk. To capture the association of BP and its treatment with risk, it is important to estimate BP levels in the absence of medication, i.e., Underlying BP. One proposed ad-hoc solution is to add a fixed increment e.g., 10/5 mm Hg to systolic (SBP)/diastolic (DBP) for people on MEDS to approximate their Underlying BP. However, what this increment should be, and whether it applies to all MEDS users is unclear. In this manuscript, we propose a novel time-to-event approach to estimate Underlying BP, treating BPs on MEDS as censored observations. The results indicate that the median Treatment Effect (i.e., Underlying BP - Observed BP) for SBP/DBP is 12.0/7.7 for men and 16.9/6.5 for women and is significantly modified by age, BMI and black race. The Underlying BP for MEDS users is then combined with the observed BP for non-MEDS users to derive age-sex-specific BP percentiles for Underlying BP based on a representative sample of normal weight U.S. adults aged 18-79 using NHANES data from 1999-2018., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

The healthy user effect is a well-recognized bias in the field of pharmacoepidemiology and can be expected to overstate the effect of a preventive intervention when comparing long term users or "adherers" to non-users. Similar to the healthy worker effect observed in occupational epidemiology, the healthy user effect can be separated into a healthy initiator effect (baseline confounding) and a healthy adherer effect (selection bias). Restriction approaches and new user designs that implicitly condition on the indication and, similar healthy behaviors or health status can often mitigate the healthy initiator effect (confounding) or healthy adherer effect (selection bias) at the start of a study. Addressing the healthy adherer effect due to continued conditioning on adherence over the duration of a study is more challenging as methods to mitigate it require the ability to predict adherence, which is often difficult using databases common in pharmacoepidemiologic research. Here, we describe the healthy user effect, with supporting examples, and describe study design approaches available to pharmacoepidemiologists to mitigate the potential for bias., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background and Objective: Prospective sequential analyses after a new drug approval allow proactive surveillance of new drugs. In the current study, we demonstrate feasibility of frailty-specific sequential analyses for dabigatran, rivaroxaban, and apixaban versus warfarin., Methods: We partitioned Medicare data from 2011 to 2020 into datasets based on calendar year following the date of drug approval. Each calendar year of data was added sequentially for analysis. We used a new-user, active comparative design by comparing the initiators of dabigatran versus warfarin, rivaroxaban versus warfarin, and apixaban versus warfarin. Patients aged ≥ 65 years with atrial fibrillation without contraindication to the anticoagulants were included. Claims-based frailty index ≥ 0.25 was used to define frailty. The initiators of each direct oral anticoagulant were propensity-score matched to the initiators of warfarin within each frailty status. The effectiveness outcome was ischemic stroke or systemic thromboembolism, and the safety outcome was major bleeding. For each calendar year, we estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) from Cox proportional hazards models using all data available up to that year., Results: As an example of the results, in the 2020 dataset, compared with warfarin, apixaban was associated with a reduced risk of ischemic stroke or systemic thromboembolism (frail: HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.63-0.85; non-frail: HR 0.65, 95% CI 0.59-0.72) and major bleeding (frail: HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.57-0.69; non-frail: HR 0.59, 95% CI 0.56-0.63) in both frail and non-frail patients. We found evidence for apixaban's effectiveness and safety within 1-2 years after the drug approval in frail older patients., Conclusion: Our frailty-specific sequential analyses can be applied to future near-real-time monitoring of newly approved drugs., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.)

Objectives: To evaluate the concordance of results between the HORIZON-Pivotal Fracture Trial (PFT) and a non-randomized database study designed to emulate the trial., Methods: HORIZON-PFT evaluated the efficacy of zoledronic acid vs placebo in reducing the risk of hip fractures and found a 41% risk reduction over a 3-year treatment period (HR = 0.59; 95% CI 0.42 to 0.83). Using two U.S. claims databases from 08/2007 to 12/2020 or 06/2021 we applied eligibility criteria from HORIZON-PFT and identified women with osteoporosis who initiated zoledronic acid or raloxifene as a proxy for placebo. The study protocol was registered on ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04736693) before inferential analyses. We compared HORIZON-PFT and database study results using prespecified metrics., Results: Due to low adherence in clinical practice, on-treatment follow up was truncated at 18 months in the database study. The hip fracture risk after 18 months was 9.3/1000 in the trial and 8.3/1000 in the database analysis. In the database study, zoledronic acid was associated with a 28% reduction in hip fractures risk compared to raloxifene (HR = 0.72; 95% CI 0.51 to 0.92). The attenuated effect of zoledronic acid in the database study may be explained by its shorter follow-up, as the interpolated estimate of the effect in HORIZON-PFT at 18 months was HR RCT 0.74, nearly identical to the observational estimate HR database 0.72., Conclusion: Real-world emulation of the HORIZON-PFT found that zoledronic acid reduced hip fractures risk over an 18-month follow-up period. Limited adherence in clinical practice diminished the magnitude of its preventive effect and precluded long-term estimation of effectiveness in this setting., (This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.)

Background: Ticagrelor is recommended over clopidogrel in acute coronary syndrome based on the results of the PLATO (Study of Platelet Inhibition and Patient Outcomes) trial. We aimed to emulate PLATO in older adults with and without frailty and with acute coronary syndrome treated with percutaneous coronary intervention., Methods and Results: We created a new-user cohort of Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries aged ≥65 years hospitalized for acute coronary syndrome from 2014 to 2018 and initiated ticagrelor or clopidogrel following percutaneous coronary intervention. Frailty was defined using a validated claims-based frailty index ≥0.25. Coprimary outcomes were major adverse cardiovascular events and major bleeding. Follow-up began on the date of first outpatient prescription for ticagrelor or clopidogrel and ended on the earliest date for an outcome event, death, discontinuation of the index drug, or disenrollment from Medicare. The study included 42 843 older adults; 23% were frail. After propensity score matching, the rates of major adverse cardiovascular events per 100 person-years comparing ticagrelor versus clopidogrel groups were 7.8 and 7.3 in the frail cohort (hazard ratio [HR], 1.07 [95% CI, 0.84-1.36]) and 3.7 and 4.2 in the nonfrail cohort (HR, 0.87 [95% CI, 0.75-1.02]). The corresponding rates of major bleeding were 4.3 and 3.8 in the frail cohort (HR, 1.12 95% CI, [0.80-1.56]) and 2.2 and 1.8 in the nonfrail cohort (HR, 1.22 [95% CI, 0.98-1.51])., Conclusions: There was a trend toward a modest reduction in risk of major adverse cardiovascular events and a trend toward a modest increase in risk of major bleeding with ticagrelor compared with clopidogrel in the nonfrail cohort. There was insufficient evidence for the benefit of ticagrelor in frail older adults.

Aims/hypothesis: Limited evidence exists on the comparative safety and effectiveness of empagliflozin against alternative glucose-lowering medications in individuals with type 2 diabetes with the broad spectrum of cardiovascular risk. The EMPagliflozin compaRative effectIveness and SafEty (EMPRISE) cohort study was designed to monitor the safety and effectiveness of empagliflozin periodically for a period of 5 years with data collection from electronic healthcare databases., Methods: We identified individuals ≥18 years old with type 2 diabetes who initiated empagliflozin or dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP-4i) from 2014 to 2019 using US Medicare and commercial claims databases. After 1:1 propensity score matching using 143 baseline characteristics, we identified four a priori-defined effectiveness outcomes: (1) myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke; (2) hospitalisation for heart failure (HHF); (3) major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE); and (4) cardiovascular mortality or HHF. Safety outcomes included lower-limb amputations, non-vertebral fractures, diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA), acute kidney injury (AKI), severe hypoglycaemia, retinopathy progression, and short-term kidney and bladder cancers. We estimated HRs and rate differences (RDs) per 1000 person-years, overall and stratified by age, sex, baseline atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and heart failure., Results: We identified 115,116 matched pairs. Compared with DPP-4i, empagliflozin was associated with lower risks of MI/stroke (HR 0.88 [95% CI 0.81, 0.96]; RD -2.08 [95% CI (-3.26, -0.90]), HHF (HR 0.50 [0.44, 0.56]; RD -5.35 [-6.22, -4.49]), MACE (HR 0.73 [0.62, 0.86]; RD -6.37 [-8.98, -3.77]) and cardiovascular mortality/HHF (HR 0.57 [0.47, 0.69]; RD -10.36 [-12.63, -8.12]). Absolute benefits were larger in older individuals and in those with ASCVD/heart failure. Empagliflozin was associated with an increased risk of DKA (HR 1.78 [1.44, 2.19]; RD 1.59 [1.08, 2.09]); decreased risks of AKI (HR 0.62 [0.54, 0.72]; RD -2.39 [-3.08, -1.71]), hypoglycaemia (HR 0.75 [0.67, 0.84]; RD -2.46 [-3.32, -1.60]) and retinopathy progression (HR 0.78 [0.63, 0.96)]; RD -9.49 [-16.97, -2.10]); and similar risks of other safety events., Conclusions/interpretation: Empagliflozin relative to DPP-4i was associated with risk reductions of MI or stroke, HHF, MACE and the composite of cardiovascular mortality or HHF. Absolute risk reductions were larger in older individuals and in those who had history of ASCVD or heart failure. Regarding the safety outcomes, empagliflozin was associated with an increased risk of DKA and lower risks of AKI, hypoglycaemia and progression to proliferative retinopathy, with no difference in the short-term risks of lower-extremity amputation, non-vertebral fractures, kidney and renal pelvis cancer, and bladder cancer., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

Purpose: To describe and demonstrate sample size and power calculation for ophthalmic studies with a binary outcome from one or both eyes., Methods: We describe sample size and power calculation for four commonly used eye designs: (1) one-eye design or person-design: one eye per subject or outcome is at person-level; (2) paired design: two eyes per subject and two eyes are in different treatment groups; (3) two-eye design: two eyes per subject and both eyes are in the same treatment group; and (4) mixture design: mixture of one eye and two eyes per subject. For each design, we demonstrate sample size and power calculations in real ophthalmic studies., Results: Using formulas and commercial or free statistical packages including SAS, STATA, R, and PS, we calculated sample size and power. We demonstrated that different statistical packages require different parameters and provide similar, yet not identical, results. We emphasize that studies using data from two eyes of a subject need to account for the intereye correlation for appropriate sample size and power calculations. We demonstrate the gain in efficiency in designs that include two eyes of a subject compared to one-eye designs., Conclusions: Ophthalmic studies use different eye designs that include one or both eyes in the same or different treatment groups. Appropriate sample size and power calculations depend on the eye design and should account for intereye correlation when two eyes from some or all subjects are included in a study. Calculations can be executed using formulas and commercial or free statistical packages.

Background: Statin effects extend beyond low-density lipoprotein cholesterol reduction, potentially modulating the metabolism of bioactive lipids (BALs), crucial for biological signaling and inflammation. These bioactive metabolites may serve as metabolic footprints, helping uncover underlying processes linked to pleiotropic effects of statins and yielding a better understanding of their cardioprotective properties. This study aimed to investigate the impact of high-intensity statin therapy versus placebo on plasma BALs in the JUPITER trial (Justification for the Use of Statins in Prevention: an Intervention Trial Evaluating Rosuvastatin; NCT00239681), a randomized primary prevention trial involving individuals with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol <130 mg/dL and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein ≥2 mg/L., Methods: Using a nontargeted mass spectrometry approach, over 11 000 lipid features were assayed from baseline and 1-year plasma samples from cardiovascular disease noncases from 2 nonoverlapping nested substudies: JUPITER discovery (n=589) and JUPITER validation (n=409). The effect of randomized allocation of rosuvastatin 20 mg versus placebo on BALs was examined by fitting a linear regression with delta values (∆=year 1-baseline) adjusted for age and baseline levels of each feature. Significant associations in discovery were analyzed in the validation cohort. Multiple comparisons were adjusted using 2-stage overall false discovery rate., Results: We identified 610 lipid features associated with statin randomization with significant replication (overall false discovery rate, <0.05), including 26 with annotations. Statin therapy significantly increased levels of 276 features, including BALs with anti-inflammatory activity and arterial vasodilation properties. Concurrently, 334 features were significantly lowered by statin therapy, including arachidonic acid and proinflammatory and proplatelet aggregation BALs. By contrast, statin therapy reduced an eicosapentaenoic acid-derived hydroxyeicosapentaenoic acid metabolite, which may be related to impaired glucose metabolism. Additionally, we observed sex-related differences in 6 lipid metabolites and 6 unknown features., Conclusions: Statin allocation was significantly associated with upregulation of BALs with anti-inflammatory, antiplatelet aggregation and antioxidant properties and downregulation of BALs with proinflammatory and proplatelet aggregation activity, supporting the pleiotropic effects of statins beyond low-density lipoprotein cholesterol reduction., Competing Interests: Disclosures The parent JUPITER trial (Justification for the Use of Statins in Prevention: an Intervention Trial Evaluating Rosuvastatin) was funded by AstraZeneca (Wilmington, DE), which had no role in the current study. Quest Diagnostics and LabCorp (LipoScience) conducted assays at no additional charges. O.V. Demler received support from Kowa, not related to the current work. S. Mora has served as a consultant to Pfizer for work outside the current study. M. Jain is the founder and chief executive officer of Sapient, a private organization specialized in biotechnology research for biomarker profiling. P.M. Ridker received past investigator-initiated research grant support from AstraZeneca to conduct the JUPITER trial; has current investigator-initiated research grant support from Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Kowa, Amarin, Pfizer, Esperion, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Bristol Myers Squibb, and Operation Warp Speed; served as a consultant to Novartis, Flame, Agepha, Ardelyx, AstraZeneca, Janssen, Civi Biopharm, GlaxoSmithKline, SOCAR, Novo Nordisk, Health Outlook, Montai Health, Eli Lilly, New Amsterdam, Boehringer-Ingelheim, RTI, Cytokinetics, Horizon Therapeutics, and Cardio Therapeutics; has minority shareholder equity positions in Uppton, Bitteroot Bio, and Angiowave; received nonmonetary research support from the Pfizer Bristol Myers Squibb Alliance and from Quidel, Inc, to conduct federally funded COVID-19 research; and receives compensation for service on the Peter Munk Advisory Board (University of Toronto), the Leducq Foundation, Paris FR, and the Baim Institute (Boston, MA). None of these conflicts relate to the current article. The other authors report no conflicts.

The objective of this review is to summarize and appraise the research methodology, emerging findings, and future directions in pharmacoepidemiologic studies assessing the benefits and harms of pharmacotherapies in older adults with different levels of frailty. Older adults living with frailty are at elevated risk for poor health outcomes and adverse effects from pharmacotherapy. However, current evidence is limited due to the under-enrollment of frail older adults and the lack of validated frailty assessments in clinical trials. Recent advancements in measuring frailty in administrative claims and electronic health records (database-derived frailty scores) have enabled researchers to identify patients with frailty and to evaluate the heterogeneity of treatment effects by patients' frailty levels using routine health care data. When selecting a database-derived frailty score, researchers must consider the type of data (e.g., different coding systems), the length of the predictor assessment period, the extent of validation against clinically validated frailty measures, and the possibility of surveillance bias arising from unequal access to care. We reviewed 13 pharmacoepidemiologic studies published on PubMed from 2013 to 2023 that evaluated the benefits and harms of cardiovascular medications, diabetes medications, anti-neoplastic agents, antipsychotic medications, and vaccines by frailty levels. These studies suggest that, while greater frailty is positively associated with adverse treatment outcomes, older adults with frailty can still benefit from pharmacotherapy. Therefore, we recommend routine frailty subgroup analyses in pharmacoepidemiologic studies. Despite data and design limitations, the findings from such studies may be informative to tailor pharmacotherapy for older adults across the frailty spectrum., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.)

Background: Treatments for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) are associated with complex changes in lipids and lipoproteins that may impact cardiovascular (CV) risk. The objective of this study was to examine lipid and lipoprotein changes associated with two common RA treatment strategies, triple therapy or tumor necrosis factor inhibitor (TNFi), and association with CV risk., Methods: In this secondary data analysis of the TARGET trial, methotrexate (MTX) inadequate responders with RA were randomized to either add sulfasalazine and hydroxychloroquine (triple therapy), or TNFi for 24-weeks. The primary trial outcome was the change in arterial inflammation measured in the carotid arteries or aorta by FDG-PET/CT at baseline and 24-weeks; this change was described as the target-to-background ratio (TBR) in the most diseased segment (MDS). Routine lipids and advanced lipoproteins were measured at baseline and 24-weeks; subjects on statin therapy at baseline were excluded. Comparisons between baseline and follow-up lipid measurements were performed within and across treatment arms, as well as change in lipids and change in MDS-TBR., Results: We studied 122 participants, 61 in each treatment arm, with median age 57 years, 76% female, and 1.5 year median RA disease duration. When comparing treatment arms, triple therapy had on average a larger reduction in triglycerides (15.9 mg/dL, p = 0.01), total cholesterol to HDL-C ratio (0.29, p-value = 0.01), and LDL particle number (111.2, p = 0.02) compared to TNFi. TNFi had on average a larger increase in HDL particle number (1.6umol/L, p = 0.006). We observed no correlation between change in lipid measurements and change in MDS-TBR within and across treatment arms., Conclusions: Both treatment strategies were associated with improved lipid profiles via changes in different lipids and lipoproteins. These effects had no correlation with change in CV risk as measured by vascular inflammation by FDG-PET/CT., Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov ID NCT02374021., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: Among individuals with vitamin D deficiency, daily vitamin D supplementation appears to lower risk of acute respiratory infection. However, recent trials, in different populations and using different regimens, have yielded null results. We investigated the effect of daily vitamin D supplementation (vs placebo) on risk of upper respiratory infection (URI) in older adults., Methods: The VITamin D and OmegA-3 TriaL (VITAL) is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of supplemental vitamin D and/or omega-3 fatty acids in generally healthy men (age ≥50 years) and women (age ≥55 years). This prespecified analysis focuses on vitamin D3 (2000 IU/day) versus placebo in the 15 804 (61%) participants with baseline serum total 25-hydroxyvitamin D level. The primary outcome was self-report of a recent URI at 1-year follow-up., Results: Participants had a mean age of 68 years and 51% were women; 76% were non-Hispanic White, 16% Black, and 8% other race/ethnicity. The mean 25-hydroxyvitamin D level at baseline was 31 (standard deviation, 10) ng/mL, with <12 ng/mL in 2.4%. The overall effect of vitamin D supplementation on recent URI was nonsignificant (odds ratio [OR], 0.96 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .86-1.06]). In the prespecified subgroup of primary interest (<12 ng/mL and denied taking concurrent vitamin D), which had only 255 participants, vitamin D supplementation was nonsignificant (OR, 0.60 [95% CI, .28-1.30]). Statistical power to assess effect modification in other subgroups was limited., Conclusions: In older adults not selected for vitamin D deficiency, supplemental vitamin D did not lower URI risk overall. Whether effects differ in subgroups requires further study. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT01169259., Competing Interests: Potential conflicts of interest. C. A. C. received support for the present manuscript from the NIH, Pharmavite, Pronova BioPharma/BASF, and Quest Diagnostics paid to their institution. R. J. G. reported receipt of grants from Amarin, Kowa, Novartis, and Pfizer; participation on a data safety monitoring board or advisory board for National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute trials of blood disorders, HI-PRO Trial of venous thromboembolism prevention, and the CANARY trial of cannabidiol. D. R. G. has received grants or contracts from the NIH. S. M. reports consulting for Quest Diagnostics and Pfizer. J. E. B. reports that her spouse is a member of the scientific advisory board of Pharmavite, which provided the vitamin D pills and packaging for the trial. All other authors report no potential conflicts. All authors have submitted the ICMJE Form for Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest. Conflicts that the editors consider relevant to the content of the manuscript have been disclosed., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: Premature coronary heart disease (CHD) is a major cause of death in women. We aimed to characterize biomarker profiles of women who developed CHD before and after age 65 years., Methods: In the Women's Health Study (median follow-up 21.5 years), women were grouped by age and timing of incident CHD: baseline age <65 years with premature CHD by age 65 years (25 042 women; 447 events) and baseline age ≥65 years with nonpremature CHD (2982 women; 351 events). Associations of 44 baseline plasma biomarkers measured using standard assays and a nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR)-metabolomics assay were analyzed using Cox models adjusted for clinical risk factors., Results: Twelve biomarkers showed associations only with premature CHD and included lipoprotein(a), which was associated with premature CHD [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) per SD: 1.29 (95% CI 1.17-1.42)] but not with nonpremature CHD [1.09(0.98-1.22)](Pinteraction = 0.02). NMR-measured lipoprotein insulin resistance was associated with the highest risk of premature CHD [1.92 (1.52-2.42)] but was not associated with nonpremature CHD (Pinteraction <0.001). Eleven biomarkers showed stronger associations with premature vs nonpremature CHD, including apolipoprotein B. Nine NMR biomarkers showed no association with premature or nonpremature CHD, whereas 12 biomarkers showed similar significant associations with premature and nonpremature CHD, respectively, including low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol [1.30(1.20-1.45) and 1.22(1.10-1.35)] and C-reactive protein [1.34(1.19-1.50) and 1.25(1.08-1.44)]., Conclusions: In women, a profile of 12 biomarkers was selectively associated with premature CHD, driven by lipoprotein(a) and insulin-resistant atherogenic dyslipoproteinemia. This has implications for the development of biomarker panels to screen for premature CHD., (© Association for Diagnostics & Laboratory Medicine 2024. All rights reserved. For commercial re-use, please contact reprints@oup.com for reprints and translation rights for reprints. All other permissions can be obtained through our RightsLink service via the Permissions link on the article page on our site—for further information please contact journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Introduction: Beta-carotene (BC) protects the body against free radicals that may damage the kidney and lead to the development of acute kidney injury and chronic kidney disease (CKD). Previous studies in animal models have demonstrated a potential protective effect of 30 mg/kg BC supplementation on renal ischemia or reperfusion injury and subsequently improved kidney function. The extension of these findings to humans, however, remains unclear., Methods: Our study leverages previously collected data from the Physicians' Health Study I (PHS I), a large-scale, long-term, randomized trial of middle-aged and older US male physicians testing 50 mg BC every other day for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease and cancer. We examined the impact of randomized BC supplementation on self-reported incident CKD identified by self-reports stating "yes" to kidney disease from annual follow-up questionnaires from randomization in 1982 through the end of the randomized BC intervention at the end of 1995, and on CKD defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 60 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 at the end of 1995. Analyses compared incident CKD between BC supplementation and placebo using Cox proportional hazards regression models and logistic regression. We also examined whether smoking status (current vs. former or never smoker) or other factors modified the effect of randomized BC supplementation on CKD., Results: A total of 10,966 participants were randomized to BC, and 10,952 participants were randomized to a placebo group. Baseline characteristics between randomized BC groups were similar. There was no significant benefit between BC supplementation and self-reported incident CKD after adjusting for age and randomized aspirin treatment (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.97, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.86-1.08, P -value = 0.56). Stratified by smoking status, there was no significant benefit of BC supplementation and self-reported incident CKD either among former or never smokers (HR = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.84-1.07, P -value = 0.41) or current smokers (HR = 1.08, 95% CI: 0.78-1.50, P -value = 0.64). Smoking status did not modify the association between BC supplementation and incident CKD ( P -interaction = 0.47). In subgroup analysis among those with available serum creatinine at the study end (5480 with BC and 5496 with placebo), there was no significant benefit between BC supplementation and CKD based on eGFR < 60 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 (odds ratio [OR] = 0.96, 95% CI: 0.85-1.08, P -value = 0.49)., Conclusion: Long-term randomized BC supplementation did not affect the risk of incident CKD in middle-aged and older male physicians., (© 2024 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Background: Blueberries and anthocyanins, their key bioactive component, may improve eye health. However, few long-term studies have examined blueberries and anthocyanins with cataract and age-related macular degeneration (AMD)., Objectives: To investigate the prospective association between blueberry and anthocyanin intake with incident cataract, total AMD, and visually significant AMD among middle-aged and older women., Methods: A total of 36,653 and 35,402 women initially free of AMD and cataract, respectively, aged ≥45 y from the Women's Health Study provided semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire data on blueberry intake categorized as none, 1-3 servings/mo, 1 serving/wk, or ≥2 servings/wk, plus a combined category of ≥1 serving/wk. Total anthocyanin intake and major subclasses were energy-adjusted and categorized into quintiles. Self-reported risk factors of eye disease were adjusted in multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) (95% confidence intervals [CIs]) of confirmed cataract, AMD, and visually significant AMD with mean follow-up of 11 y., Results: Among the participants, 10.5% consumed ≥1 serving/wk of blueberries, with mean total anthocyanin intake of 11.2 mg/d. Compared to no blueberry intake, women consuming 1-3 servings/mo, 1 serving/wk, and ≥2 servings/wk had corresponding multivariable HRs of total AMD of 0.90 (95% CI: 0.73, 1.11), 0.71 (95% CI: 0.50, 1.00), and 0.36 (95% CI: 0.14, 0.93) (P trend = 0.011); those consuming ≥1 servings/wk had an HR of 0.68 (95% CI: 0.47, 0.98). A similar magnitude of HRs were found for visually significant AMD (P trend = 0.012) but not for cataract. There were no significant associations between increasing total anthocyanin quintiles and total and visually significant AMD, but there was a modest inverse association with cataract (P trend = 0.022), driven by a 10% reduction in cataract in the upper 2 quintiles., Conclusions: Greater blueberry intake significantly reduced total AMD, but not visually significant AMD or cataract. However, the magnitude of effect for visually significant AMD was similar to total AMD. There was a modest but significant inverse association between dietary anthocyanin intake with cataract but not AMD., (Copyright © 2024 American Society for Nutrition. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Machine learning-based approaches that seek to accomplish individualized treatment effect prediction have gained traction; however, some salient challenges lack wider recognition., Methods: We describe key methodologic considerations for individualized treatment effect prediction models using data from the Treatment of Preserved Cardiac Function Heart Failure with an Aldosterone Antagonist Trial for spironolactone in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. The causal survival forest algorithm was used for model development. Calibration and discrimination were evaluated using a bootstrapping-based internal validation procedure. Observed benefits were described for predicted benefit quartiles and quartiles of a known effect modifier: ejection fraction. A negative control analysis with noncardiovascular death as the outcome was implemented to detect confounding., Results: Among 3445 participants, 671 events occurred over a median of 3.3 years of follow-up. In internal validation, a higher average observed benefit was noted among patients in the highest quartile of predicted benefit. The median (interquartile range) of the observed restricted mean survival time difference at 3.3 years at the highest quartile of model-predicted benefit was 62 days (32 to 83) and was 47 days (26 to 67) at the lowest quartile of ejection fraction. Body-mass index had higher contribution to prediction of benefit relative to other included measures (33.7% vs. glomerular filtration rate [27.3%], ejection fraction [15.1%], and younger age [12.8%]) No benefit was observed for noncardiovascular death at higher model-predicted benefit quartiles, although benefit for noncardiovascular death was observed at lower quartiles., Conclusions: Carefully applied and validated predictive models hold promise in identifying heterogeneous treatment effects and are useful for hypothesis generation regarding the role of phenotypic characteristics in modifying the benefit of experimental interventions in clinical trials. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00094302.).

Background: We illustrate a method for stratum assignment in small cohort studies that avoids modeling assumptions., Methods: Off-the-shelf software ( rgenoud ) made stratum assignments to minimize a loss function built on within-stratum and population-adjusted Euclidean distances., Results: In 100 trials using simulated data of 300 records with a binary treatment and four dissimilar covariate treatment predictors, minimizing a loss based on Euclidean distance reduced covariate imbalance by a median of 99%. Stratification by propensity score and weighting records by the inverse of their probability of treatment reduced imbalance by 76%-89% and 83%-94%, respectively. Loss minimization applied to a cohort of 361 children undergoing immunotherapy achieved nearly complete elimination of covariate differences for important treatment predictors., Conclusion: With the availability of semiparametric stratum-assignment algorithms, analysts can tailor loss functions to meet design goals. Here, a loss function that emphasized covariate balance performed well under limited testing., Competing Interests: The authors report no conflicts of interest., (Copyright © 2023 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.)

Importance: Laboratory testing for the presence of tuberculosis, hepatitis, and other conditions before starting most systemic immunomodulatory agents is recommended in patients with chronic inflammatory skin diseases (CISD) but current testing patterns in the US are unclear., Objective: To determine the prevalence of pretreatment testing that is recommended for patients with CISD (psoriasis, hidradenitis suppurativa, or atopic dermatitis)., Design, Setting, and Participants: This descriptive analysis of US commercial insurance claims databases from December 31, 2002, to December 31, 2020, included adult patients with CISD (psoriasis, hidradenitis suppurativa, or atopic dermatitis) who started an immunomodulatory agent, including methotrexate, tumor necrosis factor α inhibitors, interleukin (IL)-17Ai, ustekinumab, IL-23i, dupilumab, or apremilast., Main Outcomes and Measures: The proportion of patients who underwent the screening tests as suggested by professional societies-including for tuberculosis, hepatitis, and liver function; complete blood cell counts; and lipid panels-were determined within 6 months before and during 2 years after treatment start., Results: A total of 122 308 patients with CISDs (median [IQR] age, 49 [38-58] years; 63 663 [52.1%] male) starting systemic immunomodulatory treatment in the US were included. Treatment for patients with CISDs comprised methotrexate (28 684), tumor necrosis factor α inhibitors (40 965), ustekinumab (12 841), IL-23i (6116), IL-17Ai (9799), dupilumab (7787), or apremilast (16 116). Complete blood cell count was the most common test, performed in 41% (3161/7787) to 69% (19 659/28 684) of individuals before initiation across treatments. Between 11% (889/7787) and 59% (3613/6116) of patients had tuberculosis screening within 6 months before treatment, and 3% (149/4577) to 26% (1559/6097) had updated tests 1 year later. Between 13% (1006/7787) and 41% (16 728/40 965) had hepatitis panels before treatment. Low pretreatment testing levels before apremilast (15% [2331/16 116] to 45% [7253/16 116]) persisted a year into treatment (9% [816/8496] to 36% [2999/8496]) and were similar to dupilumab (11% [850/7787] to 41% [3161/7787] vs 3% [149/4577] to 25% [1160/4577])., Conclusions and Relevance: In this descriptive analysis of patients with CISDs starting systemic immunomodulatory treatment in the US, less than 60% received the recommended pretreatment testing. Additional research is required to understand whether variations in testing affect patient outcomes.

Background: Osteoarthritis (OA) patients taking prescription opioids for pain are at increased risk of fall or fracture, and the concomitant use of interacting drugs may further increase the risk of these events., Aims: To identify prescription opioid-related medication combinations associated with fall or fracture., Materials & Methods: We conducted a case-crossover-based screening of two administrative claims databases spanning 2003 through 2021. OA patients were aged 40 years or older with at least 365 days of continuous enrollment and 90 days of continuous prescription opioid use before their first eligible fall or fracture event. The primary analysis quantified the odds ratio (OR) between fall and non-opioid medications dispensed in the 90 days before the fall date after adjustment for prescription opioid dosage and confounding using a case-time-control design. A secondary analogous analysis evaluated medications associated with fracture. The false discovery rate (FDR) was used to account for multiple testing., Results: We identified 41 693 OA patients who experienced a fall and 24 891 OA patients who experienced a fracture after at least 90 days of continuous opioid therapy. Top non-opioid medications by ascending p-value with OR > 1 for fall were meloxicam (OR 1.22, FDR = 0.08), metoprolol (OR 1.06, FDR >0.99), and celecoxib (OR 1.13, FDR > 0.99). Top non-opioid medications for fracture were losartan (OR 1.20, FDR = 0.80), alprazolam (OR 1.14, FDR > 0.99), and duloxetine (OR 1.12, FDR = 0.97)., Conclusion: Clinicians may seek to monitor patients who are co-prescribed drugs that act on the central nervous system, especially in individuals with OA., (© 2024 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: Posttranslational glycosylation of IgG can modulate its inflammatory capacity through structural variations. We examined the association of baseline IgG N-glycans and an IgG glycan score with incident cardiovascular disease (CVD)., Methods: IgG N-glycans were measured in 2 nested CVD case-control studies: JUPITER (Justification for the Use of Statins in Prevention: an Intervention Trial Evaluating Rosuvastatin; NCT00239681; primary prevention; discovery; Npairs=162); and TNT trial (Treating to New Targets; NCT00327691; secondary prevention; validation; Npairs=397). Using conditional logistic regression, we investigated the association of future CVD with baseline IgG N-glycans and a glycan score adjusting for clinical risk factors (statin treatment, age, sex, race, lipids, hypertension, and smoking) in JUPITER. Significant associations were validated in TNT, using a similar model further adjusted for diabetes. Using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression, an IgG glycan score was derived in JUPITER as a linear combination of selected IgG N-glycans., Results: Six IgG N-glycans were associated with CVD in both studies: an agalactosylated glycan (IgG-GP4) was positively associated, while 3 digalactosylated glycans (IgG glycan peaks 12, 13, 14) and 2 monosialylated glycans (IgG glycan peaks 18, 20) were negatively associated with CVD after multiple testing correction (overall false discovery rate <0.05). Four selected IgG N-glycans comprised the IgG glycan score, which was associated with CVD in JUPITER (adjusted hazard ratio per glycan score SD, 2.08 [95% CI, 1.52-2.84]) and validated in TNT (adjusted hazard ratio per SD, 1.20 [95% CI, 1.03-1.39]). The area under the curve changed from 0.693 for the model without the score to 0.728 with the score in JUPITER (PLRT=1.1×10 -6 ) and from 0.635 to 0.637 in TNT (PLRT=0.017)., Conclusions: An IgG N-glycan profile was associated with incident CVD in 2 populations (primary and secondary prevention), involving an agalactosylated glycan associated with increased risk of CVD, while several digalactosylated and sialylated IgG glycans associated with decreased risk. An IgG glycan score was positively associated with future CVD., Competing Interests: Disclosures R.A. Hoshi, G. Lauc, O.V. Demler, S. Mora, and B. Plavša are co-inventors on a patent application for a Method for prediction of future cardiovascular disease risk via analysis of IgG glycome assigned to GENOS d.o.o. and the Brigham and Women’s Hospital Inc. O.V. Demler received support from Kowa, not related to the current work. S. Mora has served as consultant to Pfizer for work outside the current study. G. Lauc is the founder and chief executive officer of Genos Ltd, a private research organization that specializes in high-throughput glycomics analysis and has several patents in this field. I. Trbojević-Akmačić and Ivan Gudelj are employees of Genos Ltd. P.M. Ridker received past investigator-initiated research grant support from AstraZeneca to conduct the JUPITER (Justification for the Use of Statins in Prevention: an Intervention Trial Evaluating Rosuvastatin) and has current investigator-initiated research grant support from Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Kowa, Amarin, Pfizer, Esperion, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Bristol Myers Squibb, and Operation Warp Speed; served as a consultant to Novartis, Flame, Agepha, Ardelyx, AstraZeneca, Janssen, Civi Biopharm, Glaxo Smith Kline, Socar, Novo Nordisk, Health Outlook, Montai Health, Eli Lilly, New Amsterdam, Boehringer-Ingelheim, RTI, Cytokinetics, Horizon Therapeutics, and Cardio Therapeutics; has minority shareholder equity positions in Uppton, Bitteroot Bio, and Angiowave; received nonmonetary research support from the Pfizer Bristol Myers Squibb Alliance and from Quidel Inc. to conduct federally funded COVID-19 research; and receives compensation for service on the Peter Munk Advisory Board (University of Toronto), the Leducq Foundation, Paris France, and the Baim Institute (Boston, MA). The other authors report no conflicts.

Background: No randomized clinical trials have directly compared the cardiorenal effectiveness of empagliflozin and GLP-1RA agents with demonstrated cardioprotective effects in patients with a broad spectrum of cardiovascular risk. We reported the final-year results of the EMPRISE study, a monitoring program designed to evaluate the cardiorenal effectiveness of empagliflozin across broad patient subgroups., Methods: We identified patients ≥ 18 years old with type 2 diabetes who initiated empagliflozin or GLP-1RA from 2014 to 2019 using US Medicare and commercial claims databases. After 1:1 propensity score matching using 143 baseline characteristics, we evaluated risks of outcomes including myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke, hospitalization for heart failure (HHF), major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE - MI, stroke, or cardiovascular mortality), a composite of HHF or cardiovascular mortality, and progression to end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) (in patients with chronic kidney disease stages 3-4). We estimated hazard ratios (HR) and rate differences (RD) per 1,000 person-years, overall and within subgroups of age, sex, baseline atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), and heart failure (HF)., Results: We identified 141,541 matched pairs. Compared with GLP-1RA, empagliflozin was associated with similar risks of MI or stroke [HR: 0.99 (0.92, 1.07); RD: -0.23 (-1.25, 0.79)], and lower risks of HHF [HR: 0.50 (0.44, 0.56); RD: -2.28 (-2.98, -1.59)], MACE [HR: 0.90 (0.82, 0.99); RD: -2.54 (-4.76, -0.32)], cardiovascular mortality or HHF [HR: 0.77 (0.69, 0.86); RD: -4.11 (-5.95, -2.29)], and ESKD [0.75 (0.60, 0.94); RD: -6.77 (-11.97, -1.61)]. Absolute risk reductions were larger in older patients and in those with baseline ASCVD/HF. They did not differ by sex., Conclusions: The cardiovascular benefits of empagliflozin vs. cardioprotective GLP-1RA agents were larger in older patients and in patients with history of ASCVD or HF, while they did not differ by sex. In patients with advanced CKD, empagliflozin was associated with risk reductions of progression to ESKD., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Objectives: Partially observed confounder data pose a major challenge in statistical analyses aimed to inform causal inference using electronic health records (EHRs). While analytic approaches such as imputation are available, assumptions on underlying missingness patterns and mechanisms must be verified. We aimed to develop a toolkit to streamline missing data diagnostics to guide choice of analytic approaches based on meeting necessary assumptions., Materials and Methods: We developed the smdi (structural missing data investigations) R package based on results of a previous simulation study which considered structural assumptions of common missing data mechanisms in EHR., Results: smdi enables users to run principled missing data investigations on partially observed confounders and implement functions to visualize, describe, and infer potential missingness patterns and mechanisms based on observed data., Conclusions: The smdi R package is freely available on CRAN and can provide valuable insights into underlying missingness patterns and mechanisms and thereby help improve the robustness of real-world evidence studies., Competing Interests: The FDA approved the study protocol, statistical analysis plan and reviewed and approved this manuscript. Coauthors from the FDA participated in the results interpretation and in the preparation and decision to submit the manuscript for publication. The FDA had no role in data collection, management, or analysis. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the US FDA. J.W. reports prior employment by Hoffmann-La Roche and previously held shares in Hoffmann-La Roche. P.A.S. is a named inventor on a patent licensed to Novartis by the University of Pennsylvania for an unrelated project. S.T. serves as a consultant for Pfizer, Inc. and TriNetX, LLC. R.J.G. has received research funding through his employer from Amarin, Kowa, Novartis, and Pfizer. R.J.D. reports serving as Principal Investigator on investigator-initiated grants to the Brigham and Women’s Hospital from Novartis, Vertex, and Bristol-Myers-Squibb on unrelated projects. All remaining authors report no disclosures or conflicts of interest., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association.)

Competing Interests: Conflicts of interest Dr M. Schneeweiss has received research grants to the Brigham and Women's Hospital from UCB pharma for work unrelated to the topic of this study. Dr M. Schneeweiss' spouse is employed at a firm that may invest in health-care companies. Dr Wyss has worked as a consultant to Aetion, a software manufacturer. Dr S. Schneeweiss is the principal investigator of multiple investigator-initiated grants to the Brigham and Women's Hospital from the FDA, NIH, PCORI, and Boehringer Ingelheim unrelated to the topic of this study. He is a consultant to Aetion, a software manufacturer of which he owns equity. His interests were declared, reviewed, and approved by the Brigham and Women's Hospital and Partners HealthCare System in accordance with their institutional compliance policies. Dr Glynn has received grants to the Brigham and Women’s Hospital from Amgen, AstraZeneca, Kowa, Novartis, and Pfizer for research unrelated to the current investigation. Dr Merola is a consultant and/or investigator for Merck, AbbVie, Dermavant, Eli Lilly, Novartis, Janssen, UCB, Celgene, Sanofi, Regeneron, Arena, Sun Pharma, Biogen, Pfizer, EMD Sorono, Avotres, and Leo Pharma. Dr Anand, Author Jin, and Author Dicesare have no conflicts of interest to declare.

Purpose: For observational cohort studies that employ matching by propensity scores (PS), preliminary stratification by consequential predictors of outcome better emulates stratified randomization and potentially reduces variance and bias through relaxed dependence on modeling assumptions. We assessed the impact of pre-stratification in two real-life examples. For both, prior evidence from placebo-controlled randomized clinical trials (RCTs) suggested small or no risk reduction, but observational analysis suggested protection, presumably the result of confounding bias., Study Design and Setting: The study populations consisted of Medicare beneficiaries (2014-18) with type 2 diabetes initiating either (i) empagliflozin versus dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP-4i) or (ii) empagliflozin versus glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA). The outcome was myocardial infarction or stroke. We estimated hazard ratios (HR) and rate differences (RD) after controlling for 143 pre-exposure covariates via 1:1 PS matching after (1) PS estimation in the total cohort (total-cohort PS-matching) and (2) PS estimation separately by baseline cardiovascular disease (stratified PS matching)., Results: Stratified PS matching resulted in HRs that exceeded those from total-cohort PS-matching by 13% and 9%, respectively, for the comparisons of empagliflozin to DPP-4i and GLP-1RA. Against both comparators, HRs and RDs after stratified PS matching were closer to the null, with slightly higher variances (2%-3%) than those after total-cohort PS matching., Conclusion: Stratified PS matching produced effect estimates closer to the expected trial findings than total-cohort PS matching. The price paid in increased variance was minimal., (© 2023 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)