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This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the rapid decline in fertility and population aging. Using LASSO penalized Poisson regression and TVP-VAR model improved by MCMC algorithm based on Bayesian network, the factors affecting the fertility level and their interrelationships are studied. It is found that fertility and education levels affect each other with probabilities of 0.0806 and 0.0825 respectively at 10% significance level. The positive shock of social security level on fertility level increases the response value of fertility level from −1.5 to about 7.5 in 10 lags, showing a positive effect. In contrast, the response of fertility level to house prices gradually decreases from 5 in period 1 to −2.5 in period 10, indicating a negative impact. These analyses provide a scientific basis for constructing a public service fertility support system that can help mitigate the current challenges of low fertility levels.

This study attempts to determine whether there is a spatial correlation between electricity generation and economic scale promoting coordinated development in Africa. We explore the spatial similarity and gray correlation degree between electricity generation and economic scale in Africa since the 21st century by adopting barycenter coupling and Gray Correlation Analysis method. We argue that there is a strong correlation between electricity generation and economic scale. Our findings indicate a significant spatial difference in electricity generation, mainly concentrated in Northern and Southern Africa. Furthermore, spatial pattern remains largely consistent over time, mirroring trends observed at the economic scale. Electricity generation and economic scale were concentrated in six countries- South Africa, Egypt, Algeria, Nigeria, Morocco, and Libya- and did not change significantly over time. A correlation analysis between electricity generation and the economic scale further confirmed this, with a linear coefficient of 0.907. Both the gravity centers of economic scale and electricity generation in Africa move farther in the north-south direction than in the East-West direction, with the former showing a Southwest-Northeast-Southwest track feature and the latter a Northeast-Southwest track feature. The spatial distribution of the gravity centers of electricity generation and the gravity centers of the economic scale in Africa are highly consistent; electricity generation highly correlates with the economic scale, consistent with the research conclusion obtained by the Gray Correlation Analysis method. This study suggests the coordinated development of electricity generation and economic scales in various African countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]