1. Strong El Niño Events Lead to Robust Multi‐Year ENSO Predictability.
- Author
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Lenssen, N., DiNezio, P., Goddard, L., Deser, C., Kushnir, Y., Mason, S. J., Newman, M., and Okumura, Y.
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ATMOSPHERIC models ,LA Nina - Abstract
The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon—the dominant source of climate variability on seasonal to multi‐year timescales—is predictable a few seasons in advance. Forecast skill at longer multi‐year timescales has been found in a few models and forecast systems, but the robustness of this predictability across models has not been firmly established owing to the cost of running dynamical model predictions at longer lead times. In this study, we use a massive collection of multi‐model hindcasts performed using model analogs to show that multi‐year ENSO predictability is robust across models and arises predominantly due to skillful prediction of multi‐year La Nina events following strong El Niño events. Plain Language Summary: In this study, we demonstrate that ENSO is predictable at least 2 years in advance when forecasts are made during strong El Niño events, such as the current El Niño expected to peak in winter 2023–2024. That is, strong El Niños provide forecasts of opportunity in which we have high confidence in multi‐year predictions of ENSO. The opposite is also shown; forecasts initialized during other ENSO states (weak El Niño, Neutral, and La Niña) do not have predictive skill past 12 months. These result hold regardless of the climate model used to make the predictions, as shown using 1,000s of years of retrospective climate forecasts made with 11 different state‐of‐the‐art climate models. Key Points: ENSO is predictable for 2+ years following strong El Niño eventsForecasts initialized during weak El Niño, Neutral, and La Niña states are not skillful at leads greater than 12 months [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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