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Introduction Material and Methods Results Conclusion Machine learning models have shown promising potential in individual‐level outcome prediction for patients with psychosis, but also have several limitations. To address some of these limitations, we present a model that predicts multiple outcomes, based on longitudinal patient data, while integrating prediction uncertainty to facilitate more reliable clinical decision‐making.We devised a recurrent neural network architecture incorporating long short‐term memory (LSTM) units to facilitate outcome prediction by leveraging multimodal baseline variables and clinical data collected at multiple time points. To account for model uncertainty, we employed a novel fuzzy logic approach to integrate the level of uncertainty into individual predictions. We predicted antipsychotic treatment outcomes in 446 first‐episode psychosis patients in the OPTiMiSE study, for six different clinical scenarios. The treatment outcome measures assessed at both week 4 and week 10 encompassed symptomatic remission, clinical global remission, and functional remission.Using only baseline predictors to predict different outcomes at week 4, leave‐one‐site‐out validation AUC ranged from 0.62 to 0.66; performance improved when clinical data from week 1 was added (AUC = 0.66–0.71). For outcome at week 10, using only baseline variables, the models achieved AUC = 0.56–0.64; using data from more time points (weeks 1, 4, and 6) improved the performance to AUC = 0.72–0.74. After incorporating prediction uncertainties and stratifying the model decisions based on model confidence, we could achieve accuracies above 0.8 for ~50% of patients in five out of the six clinical scenarios.We constructed prediction models utilizing a recurrent neural network architecture tailored to clinical scenarios derived from a time series dataset. One crucial aspect we incorporated was the consideration of uncertainty in individual predictions, which enhances the reliability of decision‐making based on the model's output. We provided evidence showcasing the significance of leveraging time series data for achieving more accurate treatment outcome prediction in the field of psychiatry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Morphometric similarity is a recently developed neuroimaging phenotype of inter-regional connectivity by quantifying the similarity of a region to other regions based on multiple MRI parameters. Altered average morphometric similarity has been reported in psychotic disorders at the group level, with considerable heterogeneity across individuals. We used normative modeling to address cross-sectional and longitudinal inter-individual heterogeneity of morphometric similarity in health and schizophrenia., Methods: Morphometric similarity for 62 cortical regions was obtained from baseline and follow-up T1-weighted scans of healthy individuals and patients with chronic schizophrenia. Cortical regions were classified into seven predefined brain functional networks. Using Bayesian Linear Regression and taking into account age, sex, image quality and scanner, we trained and validated normative models in healthy controls from eleven datasets (n = 4310). Individual deviations from the norm (z-scores) in morphometric similarity were computed for each participant for each network and region at both timepoints. A z-score ≧ than 1.96 was considered supra-normal and a z-score ≦ -1.96 infra-normal. As a longitudinal metric, we calculated the change over time of the total number of infra- or supra-normal regions per participant., Results: At baseline, patients with schizophrenia had decreased morphometric similarity of the default mode network and increased morphometric similarity of the somatomotor network when compared with healthy controls. The percentage of patients with infra- or supra-normal values for any region at baseline and follow-up was low (<6%) and did not differ from healthy controls. Mean intra-group changes over time in the total number of infra- or supra-normal regions were small in schizophrenia and healthy control groups (<1) and there were no significant between-group differences., Conclusions: In a case-control setting, a decrease of morphometric similarity within the default mode network may be a robust finding implicated in schizophrenia. However, normative modeling suggests that significant reductions and changes over time of regional morphometric similarity are evident only in a minority of patients., Competing Interests: Disclosures Dr. Díaz-Caneja has received honoraria from Angelini and Viatris. Dr. Arango has been a consultant to or has received honoraria or grants from Acadia, Angelini, Gedeon Richter, Janssen-Cilag, Lundbeck, Otsuka, Roche, Sage, Servier, Shire, Schering-Plough, Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma, Sunovion, and Takeda. Dr. Cahn has received unrestricted research grants from or served as an independent symposium speaker or consultant for Eli Lilly, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Lundbeck, Sanofi-Aventis, Janssen-Cilag, AstraZeneca, and Schering-Plough. The other authors report no financial relationships with commercial interests.