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The aim of this study was to develop a real-time risk prediction model for extrauterine growth retardation (EUGR). A total of 2514 very preterm infants were allocated into a training set and an external validation set. The most appropriate independent variables were screened using univariate analysis and Lasso regression with tenfold cross-validation, while the prediction model was designed using binary multivariate logistic regression. A visualization of the risk variables was created using a nomogram, while the calibration plot and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to calibrate the prediction model. Clinical efficacy was assessed using the decision curve analysis (DCA) curves. Eight optimal predictors that namely birth weight, small for gestation age (SGA), hypertensive disease complicating pregnancy (HDCP), gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), multiple births, cumulative duration of fasting, growth velocity and postnatal corticosteroids were introduced into the logistic regression equation to construct the EUGR prediction model. The area under the ROC curve of the training set and the external verification set was 83.1% and 84.6%, respectively. The calibration curve indicate that the model fits well. The DCA curve shows that the risk threshold for clinical application is 0-95% in both set. Introducing Birth weight, SGA, HDCP, GDM, Multiple births, Cumulative duration of fasting, Growth velocity and Postnatal corticosteroids into the nomogram increased its usefulness for predicting EUGR risk in very preterm infants., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: Necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) is a serious gastrointestinal disease, primarily affects preterm newborns and occurs after 7 days of life (late-onset NEC, LO-NEC). Unfortunately, over the past several decades, not much progress has been made in its treatment or prevention. This study aimed to analyze the risk factors for LO-NEC, and the impact of LO-NEC on short-term outcomes in very preterm infants (VPIs) with a focus on nutrition and different onset times., Method: Clinical data of VPIs were retrospectively collected from 28 hospitals in seven different regions of China from September 2019 to December 2020. A total of 2509 enrolled VPIs were divided into 2 groups: the LO-NEC group and non-LO-NEC group. The LO-NEC group was divided into 2 subgroups based on the onset time: LO-NEC occurring between 8 ~ 14d group and LO-NEC occurring after 14d group. Clinical characteristics, nutritional status, and the short-term clinical outcomes were analyzed and compared among these groups., Results: Compared with the non-LO-NEC group, the LO-NEC group had a higher proportion of anemia, blood transfusion, and invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) treatments before NEC; the LO-NEC group infants had a longer fasting time, required longer duration to achieve the target total caloric intake (110 kcal/kg) and regain birthweight, and showed slower weight growth velocity; the cumulative dose of the medium-chain and long-chain triglyceride (MCT/LCT) emulsion intake in the first week after birth was higher and breastfeeding rate was lower. Additionally, similar results including a higher proportion of IMV, lower breastfeeding rate, more MCT/LCT emulsion intake, slower growth velocity were also found in the LO-NEC group occurring between 8 ~ 14d when compared to the LO-NEC group occurring after 14 d (all (P < 0.05). After adjustment for the confounding factors, high proportion of breastfeeding were identified as protective factors and long fasting time before NEC were identified as risk factors for LO-NEC; early feeding were identified as protective factors and low gestational age, grade III ~ IV neonatal respiratory distress syndrome (NRDS), high accumulation of the MCT/LCT emulsion in the first week were identified as risk factors for LO-NEC occurring between 8 ~ 14d. Logistic regression analysis showed that LO-NEC was a risk factor for late-onset sepsis, parenteral nutrition-associated cholestasis, metabolic bone disease of prematurity, and extrauterine growth retardation., Conclusion: Actively preventing premature birth, standardizing the treatment of grade III ~ IV NRDS, and optimizing enteral and parenteral nutrition strategies may help reduce the risk of LO-NEC, especially those occurring between 8 ~ 14d, which may further ameliorate the short-term clinical outcome of VPIs., Trial Registration: ChiCTR1900023418 (26/05/2019)., (© 2024. The Author(s).)