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This paper looks at the transition of workers in the MENA region between formal and informal jobs during the COVID-19 pandemic, and investigates whether trade policy could be adopted as a measure to enhance the transition of workers from the informal to the formal sector. We use the combined COVID-19 MENA Monitor Household Survey constructed by the Economic Research Forum for 5 MENA countries and 11 sectors. This topic is timely and critical for the MENA region where informal employment is widespread, applied tariffs are still high, and female labor participation is low. Our results show that: first, fewer trade restrictions are associated with an increased probability for the worker to become formal and this effect is more pronounced post-pandemic. Second, fewer trade restrictions are linked to an increase in the probability of becoming formal for blue collars only, with an insignificant effect on white collars. Third, fewer trade restrictions are associated with an increase in the probability of men to become formal, with an insignificant effect on women. Finally, the effect of trade policy on job formality depends on the sectoral occupation of the individual with this effect being more pronounced in agriculture and manufacturing relatively to services sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 outbreak has had severe economic consequences across the globe. The crisis emanating from the pandemic has caused demand and supply side shocks, more far reaching than any crisis in living memory. We use a new data set from the 2020/21 Egyptian Industrial Firm Behavior Survey to examine determinants of firms' resilience during the pandemic. Crisis present the opportunity for what Schumpeter (In Economics of the Recovery Program, McGraw-Hill, 1934) calls creative destruction. Have manufacturing firms been all hit by the crisis equally, or were less efficient firms more likely to exit or downsize their activities thereby 'cleansing' the market? Two sets of factors affect firm dynamics and survival: (1) firms' innate characteristics and; (2) firm behavior, which captures the extent to which good management, innovation, the adoption of advanced technologies and worker training, have provided an opportunity for firms to adapt their business models and show greater resilience in coping with the crisis. We illustrate the vulnerability of private, smaller, informal firms and those that are not located in industrial zones. Second, pre-COVID behavioral characteristics matter for firm dynamics. The food sector and sectors identified as 'COVID sectors' show more resilience. Some behavioral traits vary by sector and are more influential depending on firm size. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the determinants of trade in natural gas through a political economy lens. In addition to the economic determinants of trading in natural gas, the latter could be affected by political determinants such as sanctions and the institutional gap between trading partners. Moreover, while the literature considers the effect of tariffs, less attention has been attributed to non‐tariff measures (NTMs) that might also be imposed for political reasons. To quantify the impact of these different determinants on natural gas trade, we use a gravity model that explains bilateral trade for pipeline natural gas (PNG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) over the period 2000–2017. We also consider the zero trade flows of natural gas by using the Poisson pseudo‐maximum‐likelihood estimator. Our results show that economic sanctions have reduced bilateral LNG trade by 24% on average. We also find that the institutional gap between trading partners exerts a significant negative effect on bilateral PNG and LNG trade, pointing out that institutions could be considered as fixed export cost in the natural gas market. Moreover, in addition to tariffs, NTMs have a significant negative effect on trade in natural gas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using bilateral trade and aid for trade (AfT) data for a sample of 155 countries over the period 2002-2019, we implement a gravity analysis to assess whether bilateral aggregate AfT and various AfT categories have stimulated exports of AfT-recipient countries to donors, and to examine if the institutional distance between recipients and donor countries affected the efficacy of AfT in promoting the former's bilateral exports. We show that AfT flows tend to foster exports of recipients, both at the extensive margin and intensive margin. Moreover, the trade-stimulating effect of AfT for trade policy and regulation is more pronounced than that of other AfT flows. Finally, institutional disparities between trading partners dampen the effectiveness of AfT in promoting exports at both margins of trade; and certain regions and income-based groups have managed to benefit more than others from AfT. Increasing the amount of disbursed aid flows is likely to speed-up the insertion of developing countries into world markets; strengthening governance in AfT-beneficiary countries and closing their institutional gap with donors would enhance the effect of AfT on their exports; and tying AfT flows to governance-related reforms in recipients can be an option to consider by donors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]