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Allocating water to organizational stakeholders poses a vital challenge to water managers. Organizations which benefit from water as the primary factor input attempt to achieve their objectives using cost-effective and quick-return strategies, such as increasing the water rights. In such circumstances, lack of water probably results in the conflict. Recognizing the management approaches, organizational priorities, and the stakeholders' influence power can play a dominant role in analyzing the future of such conflicts. In this paper, we analyzed the conflict of water allocation in Ilam dam among organizational stakeholders. We defined the strategies based on the background of the game and organizational objectives. The influence power of stakeholders and the numerical weights of strategies were quantified based on the expert judgment method. The relative priorities of strategies were then calculated for each state of the conflict. We used the GMCR + model to study the actions of stakeholders. Results suggest that the Jihad Agriculture Organization and the Water and Wastewater Company withdraw more water; hence, there exists no water to meet the environmental water right. In this case, the participation of the third party, such as the Governorship and the Justice can change the future of the conflict, and result in moving to the optimal state. However, results from Inverse GMCR analysis demonstrate that Justice is the most influential third party that can move the conflict towards a desired equilibrium (optimal case). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces a new methodology for quantifying the total resilience of water resources management scenarios. The climate change impacts on water supply and demand have been investigated using a calibrated soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) and a MODSIM water allocation model. Several criteria have been defined to measure five aspects of water resources systems resilience. The first aspect defines resilience as system strength against crossing a performance threshold (reliability). In the second aspect, if the system crosses the performance threshold, the recovery rate of the system after a disturbance is evaluated. The violation from the performance threshold has been measured as the third aspect (vulnerability), which considers the failure's severity. The fourth aspect is the resilience under extreme events with unknown occurrence probability, which includes four sub-criteria, namely rapidity, robustness, resourcefulness, and redundancy (4 R). Finally, the fifth criterion considers the ecological condition of the system (ecological index). To compare water resources management scenarios (alternatives), an analytical evidential reasoning-based (ER) approach has been used. To show the applicability of the proposed methodology, it has been applied to the Zarrinehrud river basin, which is the leading water supplier of Lake Urmia in Iran. As one of the largest saline lakes globally, this lake has been suffering from drastic desertification and salinization in the past two decades. The grade-based results of the performance criteria are synthesized into a grade-based total resilience criterion to facilitate the comparison of water resources management scenarios. It is shown that a scenario which results in 40% reduction in agricultural water demand until 2023 has the highest resilience and an acceptable construction and operational cost. • A total resilience criterion is proposed for assessing water resources systems. • This criterion can evaluate the resilience against events with known and unknown probability. • The grade-based values of performance criteria are estimated and combined using ER. • The previous resilience evaluations /have underestimated the critical conditions. • The total cost and resilience of the selected scenario are 1272.5 × 106 $ and 0.85. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the complexity and feedbacks among food, energy, and water (FEW) systems is key to making informed decisions about sustainable development. This paper presents qualitative representation and quantitative system dynamics simulation of the water resources system in the Qazvin Plain, Iran, taking into account the energy intensity of water supply and interconnected water use sectors (e.g., urban, industrial, and agricultural). Qazvin Plain faces water resources challenges that are common to arid/semi-arid areas, including frequent droughts, declining surface water and groundwater, and increased urban and agricultural water demand. A system dynamics model is developed using historical data (2006–2016) to investigate the effects of anticipated dynamics of integrated water and energy sectors in the next two decades. The results of policy scenarios (2020–2039) demonstrate that the continuation of the existing management policies will cause severe damage to the water and energy sectors, pushing the system towards water resources limits to growth. An annual groundwater table decline of nearly 1 m is anticipated, indicating significant overshoot of the plain's natural recharge capacity, which may lead to the depletion of recoverable groundwater in the plain within the next three decades. The groundwater table decline will cause energy consumption of water supply to increase by about 32% (i.e., 380 GWh) to maintain irrigated agriculture. It is critical to implement a combination of water demand and supply management policies (e.g., net agricultural water savings and recycling treated wastewater) to delay the problem of water limits to growth in the region. • We present a system dynamics of model integrated water and energy sectors in an agricultural region. • The model facilitates evaluation of water management policies using a food-energy water nexux approach. • Policies that facilitate net agricultural water savings and water reuse can delay groundwater depletion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]