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Climate change affects human activities, including tourism across various sectors and time frames. The winter tourism industry, dependent on low temperatures, faces significant impacts. This paper reviews the implications of climate change on winter tourism, emphasising challenges for activities like skiing and snowboarding, which rely on consistent snowfall and low temperatures. As the climate changes, these once taken-for-granted conditions are no longer as commonplace. Through a comprehensive review supported by up-to-date satellite imagery, this paper presents evidence suggesting that the reliability of winter snow is decreasing, with findings revealing a progressive reduction in snow levels associated with temperature and precipitation changes in some regions. The analysis underscores the need for concerted efforts by stakeholders who must recognize the reality of diminishing snow availability and work towards understanding the specific changes in snow patterns. This should involve multi-risk and multi-instrument assessments, including ongoing satellite data monitoring to track snow cover changes. The practical implications for sports activities and the tourism industry reliant on snow involve addressing challenges by diversifying offerings. This includes developing alternative winter tourism activities less dependent on snow, such as winter hiking, nature walks, or cultural experiences. [Display omitted] • Snow coverage in winter is projected to shrink due to climate change. • Low and inconsistent levels of snow will impact the winter tourism industry. • Besides being unsustainable, artificial snowmaking is a short-term solution. • To survive, the winter tourism industry must adapt to the changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the effects of extreme temperatures on mortality rates, using random year-to-year variation in temperature based on county-level panel data from China. The analysis finds a robust, U-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality rates, indicating that extremely cold or hot temperatures lead to excess deaths. The heat-related (cold-related) effect is 3.5 times (3.2 times) as large as previous findings that used U.S. data, and it is especially large for the elderly population, mainly due to excess deaths caused by cardiovascular diseases. Applying these results to climate change predictions from Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model shows that by 2061–2080 the annual mortality rate is likely to increase by 14.2% if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century, the estimated health cost of which is around 0.98 trillion Chinese Yuan per year. The paper also explores households' adaptation behaviors to extreme temperatures. It finds that although urban households adaptively increase energy consumption when they are exposed to cold temperatures and purchase more air conditioners on hot and cold days, rural households are unresponsive to temperature fluctuations. This finding implies that rural people may be more resource constrained and suffer more when extreme temperatures occur. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When we converse, we adapt our behaviors to our interlocutors. The adaptation can serve to indicate our engagement which can also elicit enhancement of the involvement of others. Virtual agents (or socially interactive virtual agents) that play the role of interaction partners can improve the human users' interaction experience by displaying continuous and adaptive behaviors in real time. Virtual agents have been used in multiple domains to improve user interaction and performance. The promising results of the endowment of adaptation to agents in increasing the agents' perception and user experience were shown in previous studies. In this paper, we develop an adaptive virtual agent that renders real-time adaptive behaviors based on the behaviors shown by its human interlocutor. The ASAP model rendering reciprocally adaptive agent behavior was employed to realize the system. The system consists of four main parts: perception of social signals, agent adaptive behavior generation, agent visualization (i.e. rendering of the agent's verbal and nonverbal behavior), and communication of signals. To showcase the usefulness of our adaptive agent, as a proof-of-concept we choose the e-health application of cognitive behavior therapy (CBT), which identifies and rectifies biased and irrational thoughts (or automatic thoughts). Through this study, we show the importance of giving the agent reciprocal adaptation capability notably in enhancing the user experience and the effectiveness of the CBT session. We validate the importance of endowing such adaptation capability by studying the difference between agents that are reciprocally adaptive, solely expressive (with mismatched behavior), and inexpressive (in a still posture) via questionnaires and measures related to the agent perception (naturalness, human-likeliness, synchrony, and engagement) for user experience and the CBT effectiveness (mood, anxiety, stress, and cognitive change). These results highlight the value of making virtual agents adapt in real time. This could lead to agents being capable of providing more personalized and interactive experiences for a wide range of applications. Also, we have collected a new human-agent interaction (HAI) database, HAI-CBT database, which is publicly available to the research community. [Display omitted] • Design of a real-time adaptive virtual agent with the capability to render reciprocally adaptive behaviors. • Evaluation of human-agent interaction with Cognitive Behavior Therapy (CBT) as a proof-of-concept. • Creation of a new human-agent interaction (HAI) database called HAI-CBT database. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Planning under complex uncertainty often asks for plans that can adapt to changing future conditions. To inform plan development during this process, exploration methods have been used to explore the performance of candidate policies given uncertainties. Nevertheless, these methods hardly enable adaptation by themselves, so extra efforts are required to develop the final adaptive plans, hence compromising the overall decision-making efficiency. This paper introduces Reinforcement Learning (RL) that employs closed-loop control as a new exploration method that enables automated adaptive policy-making for planning under uncertainty. To investigate its performance, we compare RL with a widely-used exploration method, Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithm (MOEA), in two hypothetical problems via computational experiments. Our results indicate the complementarity of the two methods. RL makes better use of its exploration history, hence always providing higher efficiency and providing better policy robustness in the presence of parameter uncertainty. MOEA quantifies objective uncertainty in a more intuitive way, hence providing better robustness to objective uncertainty. These findings will help researchers choose appropriate methods in different applications. • Introduce reinforcement learning to decision-making under deep uncertainty. • Compare reinforcement learning and evolutionary algorithm. • Reinforcement learning is consistently more computationally efficient. • Reinforcement learning provides better robustness to parameter uncertainty. • Evolutionary algorithm provides better robustness to objective uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a conceptual framework to systematize the use of Nature-based solutions (NBS) by integrating their resilience potential into Natural Assurance Scheme (NAS), focusing on insurance value as corner stone for both awareness-raising and valuation. As such one of its core goal is to align research and pilot projects with infrastructure development constraints and priorities. Under NAS, the integrated contribution of natural infrastructure to Disaster Risk Reduction is valued in the context of an identified growing need for climate robust infrastructure. The potential of NAS benefits and trade-off are explored by through the alternative lens of Disaster Resilience Enhancement (DRE). Such a system requires a joint effort of specific knowledge transfer from research groups and stakeholders to potential future NAS developers and investors. We therefore match the knowledge gaps with operational stages of the development of NAS from a project designer perspective. We start by highlighting the key role of the insurance industry in incentivizing and assessing disaster and slow onset resilience enhancement strategies. In parallel we place the public sector as potential kick-starters in DRE initiatives through the existing initiatives and constraints of infrastructure procurement. Under this perspective the paper explores the required alignment of Integrated Water resources planning and Public investment systems. Ultimately this will provide the possibility for both planners and investors to design no regret NBS and mixed Grey-Green infrastructures systems. As resources and constraints are widely different between infrastructure development contexts, the framework does not provide explicit methodological choices but presents current limits of knowledge and know-how. In conclusion the paper underlines the potential of NAS to ease the infrastructure gap in water globally by stressing the advantages of investment in the protection, enhancement and restoration of natural capital as an effective climate change adaptation investment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the Sahel region, drought is of serious concern due to its consequences on the livelihoods of the populations. In this paper, opportunities for proactive drought policies are analyzed with qualitative techniques using a series of semi-structured qualitative interviews with key experts from the public, private, and other relevant societal sectors. The results show that adaptation options such as sustainable agricultural practices, migration, diversification of income sources, and social networks are most frequently used as a drought response by rural households in the region. To build resilience to drought in the Sahel, there is a need to disseminate climate-friendly agricultural practices accompanied by strong monitoring and evaluation system. It is also important to provide information on early drought warning and preparedness and mobilize more financial resources in implementing policies for building drought resilience. Finally, a drought policy should be participatory and results-based, and be based on long-term forecasting to ensure sustainability and resilience. • Proactive measures are advised in building resilience to drought. • The involvement of all stakeholders is necessary for building resilience to drought. • Failure of early warning and preparedness are constraints for any drought policy. • Lack of financial support negatively affects drought policy implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies whether resilience investment mitigates damages from extreme weather events using data on offshore oil production in the Gulf of Mexico. We show that hurricanes which pass near rigs lower production and that stronger storms have larger impacts which persist for months. Regulatory changes that required rigs be designed to be resilient to major hurricanes only modestly mitigated the short-run production losses from hurricanes, reducing oil production losses by roughly 5% at 1 month and 20% 8 months after impact. They also only partly mitigated long-run losses, lowering the probability that a rig permanently exits production by 12–18 percentage points after a hurricane. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global environmental changes, driven by the consequences of human activities and population growth, are altering our planet in ways that pose current threats to human health, with the magnitude of these threats projected to increase over coming decades if additional, proactive actions are not taken. Global changes, unprecedented in their geospatial and temporal scales, include climate change, marine pollution, ozone layer depletion, soil degradation, and urbanization. Climate change is the best studied. The health risks of a changing climate will become increasingly urgent as climate change affects the quantity and quality of food and water, increases air pollution, alters the distribution of vectors/pathogens and disease transmission dynamics, and reduces eco-physical buffering against extreme weather and climate events. Health systems urgently need to be improved to effectively address these emerging challenges. This paper provides an overview of the health consequences of climate change, and discusses how health risks can be minimized and avoided via mitigation and adaptation pathways. • The global mean surface temperature is now approximately1.0°C above preindustrial levels, with detrimental consequences for human and natural systems. • Each additional unit of warming is projected to increase climate-related health risks. • The increasing risks of a changing climate are regarded as a health emergency. • Emerging health risks can be minimized and avoided via effective mitigation and adaptation pathways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the effects of the ownership decision in the short-term and the long-term on subjective well-being. In the short-term, the subjective well-being score increases by about one point (on an eleven-point scale) on average, indicating the positive effects of ownership and confirming previous research. The long-term ownership effects, however, are considerably smaller, and owners perceive their subjective well-being to be about 0.7 points higher than before they bought their home. The results provide an explanation for this difference: individuals tend to adapt to their new housing situations after they have bought a home. The size of these ownership effects varies across different groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This paper presents the adaptation of Escherichia coli Gram-negative bacteria to increased concentrations of ionic liquids. Theophylline-based quaternary ammonium salts were used as an example of an ionic liquid that on the one hand includes an anion of natural origin and on the other hand is characterized by amphiphilic properties due to aliphatic chains in its structure. Theophylline-based ionic liquids can be synthesized relatively cheaply and easily and can exhibit strong antibacterial properties depending on the alkyl chain length. These compounds can also strongly affect bacterial membrane properties, including changes in electrokinetic potential as well as net surface charge. The experiments performed in this study succeeded in obtaining bacterial cultures growing at a tetradecyltrimethylammonium theophyllinate concentration three times higher than the minimum inhibition and bactericidal concentration. The adapted bacteria were characterized by intriguing changes in morphology and grew in the form of almost one-millimeter spheres in a liquid medium. It was shown that cultivation of adapted bacteria with tetradecyltrimethylammonium theophyllinate resulted in changes in the lipid membrane composition and protein patterns of the bacterial lysates, depending on the ionic liquid concentration. This study also revealed that such bacterial adaptation can increase sensitivity to antibiotics by affecting membrane properties like ionophores. These results can be potentially important with regard to synergistic or antagonistic action with other bactericidal compounds like antibiotics and nanoparticles. Graphical abstract fx1 Highlights • Adaptation of Escherichia coli to high concentrations of ionic liquids was presented. • Theophylline-based quaternary ammonium salts were synthetized and used as ionic liquid. • Adapted bacteria were characterized by intriguing changes in morphology. • Adapted bacteria revealed changes in the fatty acids composition. • Bacterial adaptation can increase sensitivity to antibiotics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract We perform two tests that estimate the mass of the upper tail of the distribution of aggregate US tropical cyclone damages. Both tests reject the hypothesis that the distribution of damages is thin tailed at the 95% confidence level, even after correcting for inflation and growth in population and per capita income. Our point estimates of the shape parameter of the damage distribution indicate that the distribution has finite mean, but infinite variance. In the second part of the paper, we develop a microfoundations model of insurance and storm size that generates a fat tail in aggregate tropical cyclone damages. The distribution of the number of properties within a random geographical area that lies in the path of a tropical cyclone is shown to drive fat tailed storm damages, and we confirm that the distribution of coastal city population is fat tailed in the US. We show empirically and theoretically that other random variation, such as the distribution of storm strength and the distribution of damages across individual properties, does not generate a fat tail. We consider policy options such as climate change abatement, policies which encourage adaptation, reducing subsidies for coastal development, and disaster relief policies, which distort insurance markets. Such policies can reduce the thickness of the tail, but do not affect the shape parameter or the existence of the fat tail. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The paper is concerned with the case whereby the distribution of a firm''s productivity shocks changes without the knowledge of the firm. Over time the firm learns about the nature and extent of the change in the distribution of the shock and adjusts, incurring adjustment costs in the process. The long-run loss in profits due to the shift in the distribution we term the equilibrium response. The transitory loss in profits, incurred while the firm is learning about the distribution shift, is termed the adjustment cost. The theory is then applied to the problem of measuring adjustment costs in the face of imperfectly observed climate change in agriculture. The empirical part of the paper involves estimating a restricted profit function for agricultural land in a five-state region of the Midwest US as a function of prices, land characteristics, actual weather realizations and expected weather. We then simulate the effect of an unobserved climate shock, where learning about the climate shock is by observing the weather and updating prior knowledge using Bayes Rule. We find adjustment costs to climate change are 1.4% of annual land rents. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The preceding paper presented a model of drug tolerance and dependence. The model assumes the development of tolerance to a repeatedly administered drug to be the result of a regulated adaptive process. The oral detection and analysis of exogenous substances is proposed to be the primary stimulus for the mechanism of drug tolerance. Anticipation and environmental cues are in the model considered secondary stimuli, becoming primary in dependence and addiction or when the drug administration bypasses the natural—oral—route, as is the case when drugs are administered intravenously. The model considers adaptation to the effect of a drug and adaptation to the interval between drug taking autonomous tolerance processes. Simulations with the mathematical model demonstrate the model''s behaviour to be consistent with important characteristics of the development of tolerance to repeatedly administered drugs: the gradual decrease in drug effect when tolerance develops, the high sensitivity to small changes in drug dose, the rebound phenomenon and the large reactions following withdrawal in dependence. The present paper discusses the mathematical model in terms of its design. The model is a nonlinear, learning feedback system, fully satisfying control theoretical principles. It accepts any form of the stimulus—the drug intake—and describes how the physiological processes involved affect the distribution of the drug through the body and the stability of the regulation loop. The mathematical model verifies the proposed theory and provides a basis for the implementation of mathematical models of specific physiological processes. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

A mathematical model of drug tolerance and its underlying theory is presented. The model extends a first approach, published previously. The model is essentially more complex than the generally used model of homeostasis, which is demonstrated to fail in describing tolerance development to repeated drug administrations. The model assumes the development of tolerance to a repeatedly administered drug to be the result of a regulated adaptive process. The oral detection and analysis of exogenous substances is proposed to be the primary stimulus for the mechanism of drug tolerance. Anticipation and environmental cues are in the model considered secondary stimuli, becoming primary only in dependence and addiction or when the drug administration bypasses the natural—oral—route, as is the case when drugs are administered intravenously. The model considers adaptation to the effect of a drug and adaptation to the interval between drug taking autonomous tolerance processes. Simulations with the mathematical model demonstrate the model''s behavior to be consistent with important characteristics of the development of tolerance to repeatedly administered drugs: the gradual decrease in drug effect when tolerance develops, the high sensitivity to small changes in drug dose, the rebound phenomenon and the large reactions following withdrawal in dependence. The mathematical model verifies the proposed theory and provides a basis for the implementation of mathematical models of specific physiological processes. In addition, it establishes a relation between the drug dose at any moment, and the resulting drug effect and relates the magnitude of the reactions following withdrawal to the rate of tolerance and other parameters involved in the tolerance process. The present paper analyses the concept behind the model. The next paper discusses the mathematical model. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Although planning and policy instruments are important for climate change adaptation, the implementation of these measures is critical for success. This paper studies different climate change adaptation strategies by analysing the measures adopted by stakeholders in charge of government policy development and implementation to minimise the impacts of climate change in the northern tropical region of Queensland, Australia. Local government organisations are responsible for taking a leading role in climate change adaptation. State and commonwealth government agencies are primarily responsible for developing climate transition policies and guidelines, as well as providing limited financial aid to help support the local government. Interviews were conducted with local government practitioners identified from different local government authorities in the study region. Although all the government bodies made some progress in developing better climate change adaptation policies, the interview participants identified that a lot more needs to be done, especially in implementation, including devising and the application of relevant action plans, economic assessments, stakeholder participations and engagement. From a local government practitioners' viewpoint, both the water sector and local economy will face the highest immediate impacts if climate change adaptation actions are not adequately implemented at local government level in the study region. There are currently no notable legal bindings to address climate change risks in the region. In addition, financial liability assessments due to climate risks and cost-share mechanisms among different levels of stakeholders and government authorities to face and prepare for climate change impacts hardly exist. Although the interview respondents recognise their high importance. As there are uncertainties in the achievements of climate change adaptation plans, from a local government practitioners' standpoint, the local authorities should take appropriate actions to integrate adaptation and mitigation works to face and prepare for climate risks rather than focusing only on adaptation. The respondents informed that some work has been done to identify flood prone areas and a few policy documents exist that accommodate sea level rise in planning practice, but these are done in fragments with no holistic implementation, monitoring or evaluation plans put in place. • Climate change adaptation actions are urgently needed. • The priorities and perceptions of government professionals are key to success. • Stakeholders needs to be engaged to formulate adaptation strategies. • Holistic implementation, monitoring or evaluation plans are important for success. • Climate change adaptation and mitigation measures are suggested to be integrated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change increases risks to natural and human systems. Green infrastructure (GI) has been increasingly recognized as a promising nature-based solution for climate change adaptation, mitigation, and other societal objectives for sustainable development. Although the climate contribution of GI has been extensively addressed in the literature, the linkages between the climate benefits and associated co-benefits and trade-offs remain unclear. We systematically reviewed the evidence from 141 papers, focusing on their climate benefits, relevant co-benefits and trade-offs, and the GI types that provide such climate (co-)benefits. This study presents a comprehensive overview of the links between climate benefits, co-benefits and types of GI, categorized along a green-grey continuum so that researchers/practitioners can find information according to their topic of interest. We further provide an analysis of trade-offs between various GI benefits. 'Bundles' of major co-benefits and trade-offs for each climate benefit can be identified with recommendations for strategies to maximize benefits and minimize trade-offs. To promote climate-resilient pathways through GI, it is crucial for decision-makers to identify opportunities to deliver multiple ecosystem services and benefits while recognizing disservices and trade-offs that need to be avoided or managed. • Studies are strongly focused on climate adaptation benefits dominated by countries from Europe and North America. • Multiple climate benefits and associated co-benefits or trade-offs are often overlooked or implictly stated in the literature. • Results reveal that a wide range of positive links exists between climate co-benefits. • A comprehensive analysis of disservices and potential trade-offs of GI is highlighted. • The paper suggests recommendations with planning and design implications to maximize multiple benefits and minimize trade-offs in practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores place disruption, where transformative adaptation was proposed for flood risk management, by examining: a) the relationships between place attachment, place-related symbolic meanings, place-protective interpretative responses and attitudinal responses, and b) evaluation of governance processes. Questionnaires were administered to residents in Clontarf, County Dublin, Ireland in 2014 ( n  = 280) in the aftermath of community resistance to perceived transformative flood defences. Results highlight the dilemmas for individuals who recognise adaptation as necessary but who ascribe significant importance to valued places. Contrary to previous studies, our analysis shows place attachment to be strongest in individuals who perceive governance processes as inadequate, and finds that neither flood experience nor flood risk affect strength of place attachment and support for flood defences. We suggest that where transformative adaptation disrupts place and threatens place attachment, considering the views of both those affected and unaffected by hazardous events is paramount. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bangladesh is very vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, and adaptation is emerging as a key policy response. Place based programs that build adaptive capacity are needed. This paper explores the effectiveness of formal institutions in climate change adaptation for agriculture from the perspectives of farmers and institutional communities of practice within two drought-prone areas in Bangladesh. Our findings show that formal institutions via their communities of practice play an important role in building place based capacity for mitigation and adaptation strategies in agriculture. Over-emphasis on technology, lack of acknowledgement of cultural factors and a failure of institutional communities of practice to mediate and create linkages with informal institutional communities of practice remain barriers. We argue that in order for formal institutions to play an ongoing and crucial role in building adaptive agriculture in Bangladesh, they must incorporate cultural mechanisms and build partnerships with more community based informal institutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ricardian analyses of farmland values have become a cornerstone of the literature valuing the impacts of climate change on agriculture. However, concerns about the lack of a formal econometric strategy to deal with omitted farmland characteristics have raised doubts about the identification of such impacts. This paper proposes an original method for estimating Ricardian models with plot fixed effects to control for confounding omitted variables. Specifically, we use plot-level repeat-sales French data from 1996 to 2019 to investigate how differences in farmland prices between two sale dates are explained by differences in climate evolutions. We show that our repeat-Ricardian estimates suggest greater benefits of climate change than those found with standard Ricardian analyses. In particular, our repeat-Ricardian estimates indicate that warmer summers benefit French agriculture, in complete opposition to our pooled Ricardian estimates or to the remainder of the literature. Our repeat-Ricardian results are robust to several specifications, climate length-definitions and sub-samples. We provide elements suggesting that the repeat-Ricardian analysis is better able to capture crop-switching towards high-value crops requiring particular soil conditions (e.g. vineyards). Our repeat-Ricardian analysis also indicates greater benefits of climate change compared to those estimated with short-term weather-based approaches, shedding new lights on previous inconsistent findings from the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The paper conducts a systematic review about tailored, personalized, adaptive and recommended gamification. • 42 studies state that tailored gamification is mostly being explored by the educational context. • The most considered characteristics of the user profile are the player preferences, gender, and personality traits. • The majority of the papers from the state-of-the-art still considers how to user model; tailored gamification is still a trend. • Future research should focus on dynamic modeling, exploring multiple characteristics simultaneously, and understanding the effects of other aspects than users' profile. Gamification is increasingly becoming a pertinent aspect of any UI and UX design. However, a canonical dearth in research and application of gamification has been related to the role of individual differences in susceptibility to gamification and its varied designs. To address this gap, this study reviews the extant corpus of research on tailored gamification (42 studies). The findings of the review indicate that most studies on the field are mostly focused on user modeling for a future personalization, adaptation, or recommendation of game elements. This user model usually contains the users' preferences of play (i.e., player types), and is mostly applied in educational settings. The main contributions of this paper are a standardized terminology of the game elements used in tailored gamification, the discussion on the most suitable game elements for each users' characteristic, and a research agenda including dynamic modeling, exploring multiple characteristics simultaneously, and understanding the effects of other aspects of the interaction on user experience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The uncertainty associated with the definition of strategies for climate change adaptation poses a challenge that cannot be faced by science alone. We present a participatory experience where, instead of having science defining solutions and eliciting stakeholders’ feedback, local actors actually drove the process. While principles and methods of the approach are easily adaptable to different local contexts, this paper shows the contribution of participatory dynamics to the design of adaptation measures in the biodiversity-rich socio-ecological region surrounding the Doñana wetlands (Southern Spain). During the process, stakeholders and scientists collaboratively designed a common scenario for the future in which to define and assess a portfolio of potential adaptation measures, and found a safe, informal space for open dialogue and information exchange. Through this dialogue, points of connection among local actors emerged around the need for more integrated, transparent design of adaptation measures; for strengthening local capacity; and for strategies to diversify economic activities in order to increase the resilience of the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Social isolation, common in old age, leads to a decrease of both physical and psychological skills and, consequently, to a decreased quality of life and even to a higher mortality risk. Social Network Services, like Facebook, have the potential to increase the amount of online and offline social interactions of older adults. However, because of the huge diversity of characteristics of this user group, the lack of inclusive design principles concerning existing Social Network Services, and the inappropriate ways of interaction available, older adults still resist adopting these services. In this paper we present the “You, me & TV”, a television-based multimodal Facebook prototype enhanced with TV shows sharing functionalities, a new feature for sharing printed photos, and multiple interaction modalities – remote control, voice and gestures–. We present three in-depth case studies of the use of this prototype by three older adults aged between 65 and 73 years with distinct levels of experience using Facebook, during a period between 3 and 6 weeks. Results indicate that participants accepted the prototype, rated it highly in terms of usability, and that it improved their interaction with relatives, increasing both online and offline interactions. This was particularly visible for participants that were not Facebook users before the study. We also provide relevant conclusions about the relevancy of photos and how they can easily trigger interactions between older adults and their family, and how using TV as platform for deploying access to Facebook proved to be a contributing factor to their adoption. Finally, we show how adaptation and personalization concepts were perceived and received distinctly among participants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates the relative effectiveness of FEMA expenditures on hurricane induced property losses. We find that spending on FEMA ex-ante mitigation and planning projects leads to greater reductions in property losses than spending on ex-post adaptation programs – specifically, a one percent increase in annual spending on ex-ante risk reduction and warning projects reduces damages by 0.21 percent while a one percent increase in ex-post recovery and clean-up spending reduces damages by 0.12. Although both types of program spending are effective, we find the marginal return from spending on programs that target long-term mitigation and risk management to be almost twice that of spending on ex-post recovery programs. With the predicted increases in the frequency and severity of North Atlantic hurricanes in the future, our findings suggest there are important potential gains that could be realized from the further diversification of FEMA spending across project categories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although computers could offer emotional support as well as task support when aiding a user for a complex task, there is little current understanding of how they might do this. Moreover existing demonstrations of emotional support, though promising, only cover a small number of types of support and investigate a limited number of algorithms designed by hand. In this paper, we present an empirical investigation that starts from first principles, determining different categories of stressors for which emotional support might be useful, different categories of emotional support utterances and promising algorithms for deciding the content and form of textual emotional support messages according to the stressors present. At each stage, the results are validated through empirical experiments with human participants who, for instance, are required to place statements into categories, evaluate possible support messages in different imagined situations and compose their own emotional support from options offered. This development methodology allows us to avoid potentially challenging ethical issues in presenting people with stressful situations. Although our algorithms are attempting to choose emotional support based on the general, “naive” competence of human speakers, we use as a running example situations that can arise when attending a medical emergency and awaiting expert help. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many coastal urban areas are experiencing impacts of accelerated chronic and episodic flooding on the built environment and people's livelihoods and quality of life. These impacts sometimes exceed the households' adaptive and coping capacities to deal with flooding, prompting residents to consider relocation. It is unclear how urban dwellers living in flood-prone locations perceive this adaptation strategy and under what flood-driven circumstances they would consider permanently moving. This paper provides empirical evidence on relocation preferences among urban residents along the U.S. East Coast. It further explores how this decision is influenced by socioeconomic determinants, experiences with flood exposure, comprehensive concerns with flooding, and preferences for relocation destinations. We administered an online survey to 1450 residents living in flood-prone urban areas across multiple states, from New York to Florida, and analyzed the results using descriptive and inferential statistics. Results show that almost half of respondents would consider relocating due to coastal flooding, with only 13 percent declining this option. The results show that age and race, several determinants of place attachment, problem-solving capacity, and flood-related household- and community-level concerns play a significant role in willingness to relocate. • Accelerated flooding in coastal urban areas will increase the need for relocation. • Empirical evidence about coastal relocation drivers is limited. • Survey responses indicate that many urban coastal residents are willing to relocate. • Willingness to relocate is affected by age and race, and other personal concerns. • Crime, future flooding, community support, and living costs predict relocation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Foreign aid allocation by donor countries to developing economies is known to be motivated by the donor country's bilateral trade interests. Does this apply also to bilateral climate aid? In this paper, we combine theoretical and empirical analyses to investigate how bilateral trade affects donor countries' allocations of bilateral climate aid. Our theoretical analysis develops a simple model to support our hypothesis that bilateral trade has a positive impact on climate aid transfers. The model highlights the terms-of-trade and positive income effects of climate aid, and predicts a positive relationship between donor countries' exports to and imports from recipient countries and their climate aid transfers. The empirical analysis is based on bilateral climate aid data for 2002 to 2017. We employ fixed effects and instrumental variable-2 stage least square estimations (IV-2SLS) with a shift-share instrument to overcome the endogeneity of trade. Our empirical results show that donors' exports have a significant, robust, positive effect on climate aid transfers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal fishery systems in the Arctic are undergoing rapid change. This paper examines the ways in which Inuit fishers experience and respond to such change, using a case study from Pangnirtung, Canada. The work is based on over two years of fieldwork, during which semi-structured interviews (n = 62), focus group discussions (n = 6, 31 participants) and key informant interviews (n = 25) were conducted. The changes that most Inuit fishers experience are: changes in sea-ice conditions, Inuit people themselves, the landscape and the seascape, fish-related changes, and changes in weather conditions, markets and fish selling prices. Inuit fishers respond to change individually as well as collectively. Fishers' responses were examined using the characteristics of a resilience-based conceptual framework focusing on place, human agency, collective action and collaboration, institutions, indigenous and local knowledge systems, and learning. Based on results, this paper identified three community-level adaptive strategies, which are diversification, technology use and fisheries governance that employs a co-management approach. Further, this work recognised four place-specific attributes that can shape community adaptations, which are Inuit worldviews, Inuit-owned institutions, a culture of sharing and collaborating, and indigenous and local knowledge systems. An examination of the ways in which Inuit fishers experience and respond to change is essential to better understand adaptations to climate change. This study delivers new insights to communities, scientists, and policymakers to work together to foster community adaptation. • Assesses adaptation to climate change in fisheries communities. • Examines how indigenous fishers experience and respond to change. • Climate change creates multiple changes in Arctic fisheries systems. • Diversification, technology, and co-management are three adaptive strategies. • Worldviews, institutions, culture, and knowledge systems can shape adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adverse health effects from extreme heat remain a major risk, especially in a changing climate. Several European countries have implemented heat health action plans (HHAPs) to prevent ill health and excess mortality from heat. This paper assesses the state of implementation of HHAPs in the WHO European Region and discusses barriers and successes since the early 2000s. The results are based on a web-based survey among 53 member states on the current national and federal HHAPs in place. Guided by the eight core elements of HHAPs as outlined by the WHO Regional Office for Europe guidance from 2008, we analyzed which elements were fully or partially implemented and which areas of improvement countries identified. HHAP adaptations to account for COVID-19 were sought via literature search and expert consultations. 27 member states provided information, of which 17 countries reported having a HHAP. Five out of eight core elements, namely agreement on a lead body, accurate and timely alert systems, heat-related health information plans, strategies to reduce health exposure, and care for vulnerable groups, were at least partially implemented in all 17 plans. Alert systems were implemented most often at 94%. The least often implemented items were real-time surveillance, long-term urban planning, and preparedness of health and social systems. Five countries had published COVID-19 guidance online. Our findings suggest a progressive improvement in the development and rollout of HHAPs overall and awareness of vulnerable population groups in WHO/Europe, while integration of HHAPs into long-term climate change and health planning remains a challenge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Globally, efforts are underway to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to climate change impacts at the local level. However, there is a poor understanding of the relationship between city strategies on climate change mitigation and adaptation and the relevant policies at national and European level. This paper describes a comparative study and evaluation of cross-national policy. It reports the findings of studying the climate change strategies or plans from 200 European cities from Austria, Belgium, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Spain and the United Kingdom. The study highlights the shared responsibility of global, European, national, regional and city policies. An interpretation and illustration of the influences from international and national networks and policy makers in stimulating the development of local strategies and actions is proposed. It was found that there is no archetypical way of planning for climate change, and multiple interests and motivations are inevitable. Our research warrants the need for a multi-scale approach to climate policy in the future, mainly ensuring sufficient capacity and resource to enable local authorities to plan and respond to their specific climate change agenda for maximising the management potentials for translating environmental challenges into opportunities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Beauveria bassiana is a kind of world-wide entomopathogenic fungus and can also colonize plant rhizosphere. Previous researches showed differential expression of genes when entomopathogenic fungi are cultured in insect or plant materials. However, so far there is no report on metabolic alterations of B . bassiana in the environments of insect or plant. The purpose of this paper is to address this problem. Herein, we first provide the metabolomic analysis of B . bassiana cultured in insect pupae extracts (derived from Euproctis pseudoconspersa and Bombyx mori, EPP and BMP), plant root exudates (derived from asparagus and carrot, ARE and CRE), distilled water and minimal media (MM), respectively. Principal components analysis (PCA) shows that mycelia cultured in pupae extracts and root exudates are evidently separated and individually separated from MM, which indicates that fungus accommodates to insect and plant environments by different metabolic regulation mechanisms. Subsequently, orthogonal projection on latent structure–discriminant analysis (OPLS-DA) identifies differential metabolites in fungus under three environments relative to MM. Hierarchical clustering analysis (HCA) is performed to cluster compounds based on biochemical relationships, showing that sphingolipids are increased in BMP but are decreased in EPP. This observation further implies that sphingolipid metabolism may be involved in the adaptation of fungus to different hosts. In the meantime, sphingolipids are significantly decreased in root exudates but they are not decreased in distilled water, suggesting that some components of the root exudates can suppress sphingolipid to down-regulate sphingolipid metabolism. Pathway analysis finds that fatty acid metabolism is maintained at high level but non-ribosomal peptides (NRP) synthesis is unaffected in mycelia cultured in pupae extracts. In contrast, fatty acid metabolism is not changed but NRP synthesis is high in mycelia cultured in root exudates and distilled water. This indicates that fungal fatty acid metabolism is enhanced when contacting insect, but when in the absence of insect hosts NRP synthesis is increased. Ornithine, arginine and GABA are decreased in mycelia cultured in pupae extracts and root exudates but remain unchanged in distilled water, which suggests that they may be associated with fungal cross-talk with insects and plants. Trehalose and mannitol are decreased while adenine is increased in three conditions, signifying carbon shortage in cells. Together, these results unveil that B . bassiana has differential metabolic responses in pupae extracts and root exudates, and metabolic similarity in root exudates and distilled water is possibly due to the lack of insect components. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate projection models for the Southern Mediterranean basin indicate a strong drought trend. This pattern is anticipated to affect a range of services derived from river ecosystems and consecutively deteriorate the sectoral outputs and household welfare. This paper aims to evaluate local residents’ adaptation preferences for the Piave River basin in Italy. A Discrete Choice Experiment accounting for adaptation scenarios of the Piave River services was conducted and the collected data were econometrically analyzed using Random Parameters Logit, Latent Class and Covariance Heterogeneity models. In terms of policy-relevant outcomes, the analysis indicates that respondents are willing to pay for adaptation plans. This attitude is reflected on the compensating surplus to sustain the current state of the Piave, which corresponds to a monthly contribution of 80€ per household. From an econometric point of view, the results show that it is not sufficient to take solely into account general heterogeneity, provided that distinct treatment of the heterogeneity produces rather different welfare estimates. This implies that analysts should examine a set of criteria when deciding on how to better approach heterogeneity for each empirical data set. Overall, non-market values of environmental services should be considered when formulating cost-effective adaptation measures for river systems undergoing climate change effects and appropriate heterogeneity approximation could render these values unbiased and accurate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The European Union is currently immersed in policy development to address the effects of climate change around the world. Key plans and processes for facilitating adaptation to high temperatures and for reducing the adverse effects on health are among the most urgent measures. Therefore, it is necessary to understand those factors that influence adaptation. The aim of this study was to provide knowledge related to the social, climate and economic factors that are related to the evolution of minimum mortality temperatures (MMT) in Spain in the rural and urban contexts, during the 1983–2018 time period. For this purpose, local factors were studied regarding their relationship to levels of adaptation to heat. MMT is an indicator that allows for establishing a relationship to between mortality and temperature, and is a valid indicator to assess the capacity of adaptation to heat of a certain population. MMT is obtained through the maximum daily temperature and daily mortality of the study period. The evolution of MMT values for Spain was established in a previous paper. An ecological, longitudinal and retrospective study was carried out. Generalized linear models (GLM) were performed to identify the variables that appeared to be related to adaptation. The adaptation was calculated as the difference in variation in MMT based on the average increase in maximum daily temperatures. In terms of adaptation to heat, urban populations have adapted more than non-urban populations. Seventy-nine percent (n = 11) of urban provinces have adapted to heat, compared to twenty-one percent (n = 3) of rural provinces that have not adapted. In terms of urban zones, income level and habituation to heat (values over the 95th percentile) were variables shown to be related to adaptation. In contrast, among non-urban provinces, a greater number of housing rehabilitation licenses and a greater number of health professionals were variables associated with higher increases in MMT, and therefore, with adaptation. These results highlight the need to carry out studies that allow for identifying the local factors that are most relevant and influential in population adaptation. More studies carried out at a small scale are needed. [Display omitted] • In Spain urban provinces were better adapted to heat than non-urban provinces. • Income level and habituation to heat shown to be related to urban adaptation. • Housing rehab licenses & health professionals were related to no urban adaptation. • Heterogeneity detected in local factors suggest more studies at a small scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The construct of psychological distance has gained traction as an explanation of why climate change is difficult to act on; it often feels far removed, with impacts arising in remote locations to other people or in an uncertain future. However, recent studies and narrative reviews have pointed out inconsistencies in the conceptualisation, operationalisation and results regarding the psychological distance of climate change, with research evidently struggling to develop the construct and determine its place in explaining and promoting pro-environmental behaviour. This paper presents a systematic review of the literature aimed at building an evidence base on which to develop research on psychological distance. Following a systematic search of three databases, 73 records with 84 individual studies were identified, which measured or manipulated the concept in relation to climate change. We find that psychological distance in the context of climate change is a dynamic, context-specific, multidimensional construct, with a wide variety of approaches to measurement and manipulation. Current theorising (primarily Construal Level Theory) is insufficient in describing the diversity and complexity of distance in the climate-change context. Based on the reviewed studies, we give recommendations for the measurement and manipulation of the construct. However, our overarching suggestion is to focus on specific contexts in which distance plays a role in climate-change cognition and action, such as the perception of impacts, policy or behaviour. We discuss how describing distance within these contexts can help researchers to understand current findings, to disentangle different components of distance beliefs and to incorporate theory and insights from related perspectives. • Psychological distance is often seen as barrier to climate change action. • Evidence so far is inconsistent, both in methodology and findings. • Conducted systematic review of 84 studies to build basis for construct development. • Suggest focusing on specific contexts within climate change to develop field. • Separating different distance components may further reduce inconsistencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses the ecological case for epistemic innocence : does biased cognition have evolutionary benefits, and if so, does that exculpate human reasoners from irrationality? Proponents of ‘ecological rationality’ have challenged the bleak view of human reasoning emerging from research on biases and fallacies. If we approach the human mind as an adaptive toolbox, tailored to the structure of the environment, many alleged biases and fallacies turn out to be artefacts of narrow norms and artificial set-ups. However, we argue that putative demonstrations of ecological rationality involve subtle locus shifts in attributions of rationality, conflating the adaptive rationale of heuristics with our own epistemic credentials. By contrast, other cases also involve an ecological reframing of human reason, but do not involve such problematic locus shifts. We discuss the difference between these cases, bringing clarity to the rationality debate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we propose a new high-order solution framework for interface problems on non-interface-conforming meshes. The framework consists of a discontinuous Galerkin (DG) discretization, a simplex cut-cell technique, and an output-based adaptive scheme. We first present a DG discretization with a dual-consistent output evaluation for elliptic interface problems on interface-conforming meshes, and then extend the method to handle multi-physics interface problems, in particular conjugate heat transfer (CHT) problems. The method is then applied to non-interface-conforming meshes using a cut-cell technique, where the interface definition is completely separate from the mesh generation process. No assumption is made on the interface shape (other than Lipschitz continuity). We then equip our strategy with an output-based adaptive scheme for an accurate output prediction. Through numerical examples, we demonstrate high-order convergence for elliptic interface problems and CHT problems with both smooth and non-smooth interface shapes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gesture processing has been consistently shown to be associated with activation of the inferior parietal lobe (IPL); however, little is known about the integration of IPL activation into the temporal dynamics of early sensory areas. Using a temporally graded repetition suppression paradigm, we examined the activation and time course of brain areas involved in hand gesture processing. We recorded event-related potentials in response to stimulus pairs of static hand images forming gestures of the popular rock-paper-scissors game and estimated their neuronal generators. We identified two main components associated with adaptive patterns related to stimulus repetition. The N190 component elicited at temporo-parietal sites adapted to repetitions of the same gesture and was associated with right-hemispheric extrastriate body area activation. A later component at parieto-occipital sites demonstrated temporally graded adaptation effects for all gestures with a left-hemispheric dominance. Source localization revealed concurrent activations of the right extrastriate body area, fusiform gyri bilaterally, and the left IPL at about 250ms. The adaptation pattern derived from the graded repetition suppression paradigm demonstrates the functional sensitivity of these sources to gesture processing. Given the literature on IPL contribution to imitation, action recognition, and action execution, IPL activation at about 250ms may represent the access into specific cognitive routes for gesture processing and may thus be involved in integrating sensory information from cortical body areas into subsequent visuo-motor transformation processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In modern contexts, some types of data are observed in high-resolution, essentially continuously in time. Such data units are best described as taking values in a space of functions. Subject units carrying the observations may have intrinsic relations among themselves, and are best described by the nodes of a large graph. It is often sensible to think that the underlying signals in these functional observations vary smoothly over the graph, in that neighboring nodes have similar underlying signals. This qualitative information allows borrowing of strength over neighboring nodes and consequently leads to more accurate inference. In this paper, we consider a model with Gaussian functional observations and adopt a Bayesian approach to smoothing over the nodes of the graph. We characterize the minimax rate of estimation in terms of the regularity of the signals and their variation across nodes quantified in terms of the graph Laplacian. We show that an appropriate prior constructed from the graph Laplacian can attain the minimax bound, while using a mixture prior, the minimax rate up to a logarithmic factor can be attained simultaneously for all possible values of functional and graphical smoothness. We also show that in the fixed smoothness setting, an optimal sized credible region has arbitrarily high frequentist coverage. A simulation experiment demonstrates that the method performs better than potential competing methods like the random forest. The method is also applied to a dataset on daily temperatures measured at several weather stations in the US state of North Carolina. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper presents the validation of the Career Adapt-Abilities Scale (CAAS) in the Philippine context. The CAAS consists of four subscales, with six items each, measuring self-regulative psychosocial resources (e.g., concern, curiosity, control, and confidence) for coping with occupational tasks and transitions. Filipino university students (N =289) and working adults (N =495) participated in the study. Internal consistency estimates for the full scale and subscales ranged from .87 to .97. Confirmatory factor analyses supported the multidimensional and hierarchical model of career adaptability. The factor structure was similar to that obtained from the CAAS international validation from 18 countries. Results also suggested that career adaptability was positively associated with adaptivity in the form of tenacious goal pursuit and flexible goal adjustment as well as with adaptation outcomes of career satisfaction and promotability. Overall, the findings confirm the utility of CAAS in the Philippine context and support the model that states higher levels of personal adaptivity (willingness) and career adaptability (competence) relate to better adaptation outcomes in terms of career success. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Recurrent droughts in arid and semi-arid regions are already rendering agricultural production, mainstay of subsistence livelihoods, uncertain. In order to mitigate the impact of drought, agricultural organizations must increase their capacity to adapt. Institutional adaptation refers to the creation of an effective, long-term government institution or set of institutions in charge of planning and policy, and its capacity to develop, revise, and execute drought policies. Using the Fars Agricultural Organization in Iran, as a case study, this paper explores the institutional capacities and capabilities, necessary to adapt to the drought conditions. The STAIR model was used as a conceptual tool, and the Bayesian network and Partial Least Squares (PLS) path modeling was applied to explain the mechanisms by which organizational capacities influence drought management. A survey of 309 randomly selected managers and specialists indicated serious weaknesses in the ability of the organization to apply adaptation strategies effectively. Analysis of the causal models illustrated that organizational culture and resources and infrastructure significantly influenced drought management performance. Moreover, managers and specialists perceived human resources and strategy, goals, and action plan, respectively, as the main drivers of institutional adaptation to drought conditions. Recommendations and implications for drought management policy are offered to increase organizational adaptation to drought and reduce the subsequent sufferings. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Residents of arid areas have developed their own adaptive strategies and adaptive capability to cope with an unstable environment that experiences frequent droughts. These strategies and this capability are based on traditional practices that developed from a profound understanding of their environment, but both the strategies and the capability have been affected by institutional change. Specifically, rangeland-use rights in the Alxa Left Banner were privatized in 1996, and the implementation of this policy decreased the ability of local herders to use traditional solutions. In this paper, we describe the change in their adaptive capability after implementation of this policy. Traditionally, local knowledge of the heterogeneity of resources and of key resources based on a deep understanding of the local environment, combined with tight social relationships, let herders use three traditional grazing strategies (seasonal migration, long-distance migration, and raising a diversity of livestock species) to mitigate the impacts of drought. But privatization has nearly eliminated their ability to rely on these traditional strategies and has weakened the forms of social and other capital that supported these strategies and provided a high adaptive capability. We argue that this institutional change has adversely affected traditional practices and undermined the adaptive capability of herders. Consequently, managers of the Alxa Left Banner must find ways to restore the various forms of capital to restore the herders' adaptive capability, particularly given the growing need to account for future climate change. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper presents a model for evolutionary origins of unipolar depressive disorders and reviews empirical evidence in support of the “nonparticipation hypothesis of depression” suggested by the model. In line with previous theory, depression is interpreted to provide means for not participating in joint enterprises that would otherwise be difficult to avoid (‘bargaining’ model); therefore, it provides an additional alternative strategy to social-imitation dynamics occurring in Public Good Games. Average income from joint enterprises modeled with a Public Good Game is interpreted to drive group-level genetic selection. Based on these assumptions, it is shown that if a joint enterprise is sufficiently important for both the between-individual and the between-groups competition, then a nonparticipation strategy (or gene for depression vulnerability) will be present in total population almost surely (i.e., with probability one). The modeling framework serves to explain several other seemingly unrelated empirical observations, such as association between income inequality and depression, co-morbidity and proximal biological mechanisms for negative emotions, and mechanisms for the social network-dynamics of emotion. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Adaptation to exogenous change occurs on both intensive and extensive margins. Whether and how one accounts for human adaptation directly affects estimates of the economic consequences of environmental change, estimates that are both critical in informing policy decisions and notoriously difficult to value. This paper introduces and applies an analytical framework for placing an economic value on adaptation. We explore the issue first in a stylized model that facilitates making concrete generalizations about the kinds of adaptations that generate high or low economic value. We then test the soundness of our insights by incorporating learning and adaptive decision-making into a structural dynamic forestry model where climate change is imposed exogenously and agents respond optimally. Using downscaled climate projections integrated with site- and species-specific timber productivity data, we estimate the economic value of adaptation to climate change within the California timber industry. We find on the intensive margin, changing the rotation intervals will yield a low value of adaptation, but on the extensive margin, replanting more suitable tree species can yield significant value. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are particularly vulnerable to climate change, given dependence on agricultural production and limited adaptive capacity. Based on farm household and Participatory Rural Appraisal data collected from districts in various agroecological zones in Kenya, this paper examines farmers' perceptions of climate change, ongoing adaptation measures, and factors influencing farmers' decisions to adapt. The results show that households face considerable challenges in adapting to climate change. While many households have made small adjustments to their farming practices in response to climate change (in particular, changing planting decisions), few households are able to make more costly investments, for example in agroforestry or irrigation, although there is a desire to invest in such measures. This emphasizes the need for greater investments in rural and agricultural development to support the ability of households to make strategic, long-term decisions that affect their future well-being. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Climate change is increasing the variability of rainfall, and thus the availability of water supplies in many areas of the world. These impacts are already being felt in the state of Victoria, Australia where a 12 year drought period was recently experienced. Restrictions to water use have been implemented, as one component of a broad policy approach to manage the drought. While anecdotal evidence suggests that the substitution of centralised water supplies is occurring, this has not been proven empirically. This paper reports results from a survey of households in Victoria regarding their use of alternative water sources. The study found that substitution is occurring. Garden watering is the purpose which has the highest rate of alternative water source use. In total 41.6% of respondents always, and 33.2% sometimes use an alternative water source for garden watering. The most commonly used alternative source of water for garden watering is water previously used in the laundry (30.7%). The alternative source of water used was found to vary depending on the purpose of the water use. High levels of satisfaction were found for all alternative water sources used. Several barriers were found to the use of alternative water sources, the main of which were: inflexibility of existing infrastructure, cost, policy, and housing status. The results have implications for water retailers, policy makers and governments in locations facing water shortage. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Groundwater is a key resource for global agricultural production but is vulnerable to a changing climate. Given significant uncertainty about future impacts, bottom-up approaches for developing adaptive capacity are a more appropriate paradigm than seeking optimal adaptation strategies that assume a high ability to predict future risks or outcomes. This paper analyses the groundwater management practices adopted at multiple scales in East Anglia, UK, to identify wider lessons for developing adaptive capacity within groundwater management. Key elements are (1) horizontal and vertical integration within resource management; (2) making better use of water resources, at all scales, which vary in space and time; (3) embedding adaptation at multiple scales (from farm to national) within an adaptive management framework which allows strategies and management decisions to be updated in the light of changing understanding or conditions; (4) facilitating the ongoing formation through collective action of local Water Abstractor Groups; (5) promoting efficient use of scarce water resources by these groups, so as to increase their power to negotiate over possible short-term license restrictions; (6) controlling abstractions within a sustainable resource management framework, whether at national (regulatory) or at local (Abstractor Group) scales, that takes account of environmental water needs; and (7) reducing non-climate pressures which have the potential to further reduce the availability of usable groundwater. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper, a novel adaptive demodulation technique including a new diagnostic feature is proposed for gear diagnosis in conditions of variable amplitudes of the mesh harmonics. This vibration technique employs the time synchronous average (TSA) of vibration signals. The new adaptive diagnostic feature is defined as the ratio of the sum of the sideband components of the envelope spectrum of a mesh harmonic to the measured power of the mesh harmonic. The proposed adaptation of the technique is justified theoretically and experimentally by the high level of the positive covariance between amplitudes of the mesh harmonics and the sidebands in conditions of variable amplitudes of the mesh harmonics. It is shown that the adaptive demodulation technique preserves effectiveness of local fault detection of gears operating in conditions of variable mesh amplitudes. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The problem of nonparametric estimation of the joint probability density of a vector of continuous and ordinal/nominal categorical random variables with bounded support is considered. There are numerous publications devoted to the cases of either continuous or categorical variables, and the curse of dimensionality and strong regularity assumptions are the two familiar issues in the literature. Mixed variables occur in practically all applications of the statistical science and, nonetheless, the literature devoted to the joint density estimation is practically next to none. This paper develops the theory of estimation of the density of mixed variables which is on par with results known for simpler settings. Specifically, a data-driven estimator is developed that adapts to unknown anisotropic smoothness of the joint density and, whenever the density depends on a smaller number of variables, performs a dimension reduction that implies the corresponding optimal rate of the mean integrated squared error (MISE) convergence. The results hold without traditional, in the density estimation literature, minimal regularity assumptions like differentiability or continuity of the density. The procedure of estimation is based on mimicking an oracle-estimator that knows the underlying density, and the main theoretical result is the oracle inequality which relates the MISEs of the estimator and the oracle-estimator. The proof is based on a new exponential inequality for Sobolev statistics which is of interest on its own merits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: With more and more real deployments of wireless sensor network applications, we envision that their success is nonetheless determined by whether the sensor networks can provide a high quality stream of data over a long period. In this paper, we propose a consistency-driven data quality management framework called Orchis that integrates the quality of data into an energy efficient sensor system design. Orchis consists of four components, data consistency models, adaptive data sampling and process protocols, consistency-driven cross-layer protocols and flexible APIs to manage the data quality, to support the goals of high data quality and energy efficiency. We first formally define a consistency model, which not only includes temporal consistency and numerical consistency, but also considers the application-specific requirements of data and data dynamics in the sensing field. Next, we propose an adaptive lazy energy efficient data collection protocol, which adapts the data sampling rate to the data dynamics in the sensing field and keeps lazy when the data consistency is maintained. Finally, we conduct a comprehensive evaluation to the proposed protocol based on both a TOSSIM-based simulation and a real prototype implementation using MICA2 motes. The results from both simulation and prototype show that our protocol reduces the number of delivered messages, improves the quality of collected data, and in turn extends the lifetime of the whole network. Our analysis also implies that a tradeoff should be carefully set between data consistency requirements and energy saving based on the specific requirements of different applications. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]