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China's carbon emission trading policy plays a crucial role in achieving both its "3060" dual carbon objectives and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 13 (SDG 13) on climate action. The policy's effectiveness in reducing pollution and mitigating carbon emissions holds significant importance. This paper investigated whether China's carbon emission trading policy affects pollution reduction (PM 2.5 and SO 2) and carbon mitigation (CO 2) in pilot regions, using panel data from 30 provinces and municipalities in China from 2005 to 2019 and employing a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) model. Furthermore, it analyzed the heterogeneity of carbon market mechanisms and regional variations. Finally, it examined the governance pathways for pollution reduction and carbon mitigation from a holistic perspective. The results indicate that: (1) China's carbon emission trading policy has reduced CO 2 emissions by 18% and SO 2 emissions by 36% in pilot areas, with an immediate impact on the "carbon mitigation" effect, while the "pollution reduction" effect exhibits a time lag. (2) Higher carbon trading prices lead to stronger "carbon mitigation" effect, and larger carbon market scales are associated with greater "pollution reduction" effects on PM 2.5. Governance effects on pollution reduction and carbon mitigation vary among pilot regions: Carbon markets of Beijing, Chongqing, Shanghai, and Tianjin show significant governance effects in both "pollution reduction" and "carbon mitigation", whereas Guangdong's carbon market exhibits only a "pollution reduction" effect, and Hubei's carbon market demonstrates only a "carbon mitigation" effect. (3) Currently, China's carbon emission trading policy achieves pollution reduction and carbon mitigation through "process management" and "end-of-pipe treatment". This study could provide empirical insights and policy implications for pollution reduction and carbon mitigation, as well as for the development of China's carbon emission trading market. • China's carbon emission trading (CET) policy promotes pollution reduction and carbon mitigation. • Higher carbon trading prices lead to stronger "carbon mitigation" effect. • Larger carbon market scales bring greater "pollution reduction" effects on PM 2.5. • Regional heterogeneity exists on pollution reduction and carbon mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although our knowledge of national carbon emission trading system and green certificate trading system are powerful incentive instruments that can deliver on increasingly ambitious climate targets in China, there remains an uncertainty of systems' structural reforms. This study builds on and extends a well-established dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to incorporate carbon trading system and green certificate trading system into the modeling framework, simulating a diverse of system development pathways further allows an exploration of the many possible policy effect. Then, using total factor productivity as a comprehensive indicator to asses policy effectiveness, the evolutionary trend of comprehensive effects under different paths are separately evaluated to discover the reforms' optimal range. Our work offers main results: First, these instruments provide a price signal. The introduction of a carbon allowance auction drive up carbon prices, while the implementation of a green certificate punishment and the expansion of the trading scope promote an increase in green certificate prices. Second, all policy scenarios that help reduce carbon emission intensity and optimize the power supply structure. However, in achieving the net-zero goal, the green certificate policy incurs more economic costs than the carbon trading policy. Indeed, the combination of multiple policy tools alleviates the decline of social welfare levels. Third, synergism design among policy tools: the focus should be on carbon trading policy from 2021 to 2030, green certificate trading policy from 2030 to 2050, and strengthened policy from 2050 to 2060. Reform measures within policies may need to be introduced in a timely manner. This study offers specific insights and tailored policy proposals to support policymakers in balancing environmental goals with economic and social needs in light of the aforementioned findings. Fig. 1. Introduction of the research questions Fig. 2. Framework of this paper. [Display omitted] • Carbon emission trading and green certificate trading policies were introduced into a dynamic CGE model. • The comprehensive performance of different scenarios were measured using total factor productivity index. • The policy effects of different scenarios were explored from 2020 to 2060. • The even more effective reform measures were adopt, within a single policy. • A sensible mix were proposed, within different policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the tightening regulation of carbon emissions, China has launched the pilot carbon emission trading scheme (CETS) since 2013. There is growing empirical evidence of the actual effect of CETS to promote enterprises' productivity which is characterized by total factor productivity (TFP). However, most studies ignored the further analysis of influence mechanisms. This paper aims to explore the impact of CETS on the TFP of enterprises and discuss the mediating role of government participation and carbon trading market efficiency. Using data from A-share listed enterprises from CETS-covered enterprises, this paper employed a combination of the propensity score matching (PSM) and difference-in-differences (DID) strategies and found that the CETS has a statistically significant positive impact on the TFP of enterprises, and the positive effect has been maintained for six years since its inception. The moderation analysis indicated that: (1) two dimensions of government participation in terms of the market incentive and government supervision significantly moderate the positive impact of CETS on TFP of enterprises; (2) two dimensions of carbon trading market efficiency in terms of the market scale and liquidity significantly moderates the positive impact of CETS on TFP of enterprises. In light of Chinese pilots CETS policy, the study highlights the important moderating roles of government participation and high carbon trading market efficiency on enterprise's TFP. [Display omitted] • Chinese pilots CETS significantly improved the TFP of enterprises by 9.48%. • The government participation moderates the positive impact of CETS on enterprises' TFP. • The higher carbon trading market efficiency is, the greater the moderating effect of CETS on TFP is. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thermal power industry is one of China's leading sources of carbon emissions. China has launched a national carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS) and renewable energy incentive programs to achieve its peak emission target by 2030. However, since 2021, China no longer provides a central feed-in tariff (FIT) for new centrally located solar photovoltaic (PV) power plants, commercial and industrially distributed PV projects, and newly approved onshore wind power projects. This change in policy may threaten China's carbon reduction targets and economic development. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we assess the combined effects of carbon ETS and FIT on China's electricity sector, carbon emission peak target, renewable energy and economic development. In terms of policy overlap and integration, we analyze the impact of these policies and estimate how to coordinate FIT and carbon ETS policies to ensure their effectiveness. Results show that the overall effects of FIT subsidies are superior to phasing-out FIT scenarios. The fiscal pressure caused by FIT is lower than its actual expenditure because it stimulates economic activity and boosts government revenue. However, considering the multiplier effect of the FIT on promoting government revenue growth and GDP growth, the most effective FIT should be terminated in 2025, followed by subsidies ending in 2030 and 2035. • Using the dynamic CGE model, the combined effect of Feed-in tariffs and carbon ETS is simulated. • This paper found that the overall effects of continuous FIT subsidies are superior to phasing-out FIT scenarios. • The fiscal pressure caused by continuous FIT is lower than its actual expenditure. • Considering the multiplier effect of the FIT, the most effective subsidy policy should be terminated in 2025. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Constructing and adopting a county-level panel dataset containing carbon emission (CO 2) and economic information between 2009 and 2017, this paper employs the continuous difference-in-differences (DID) model and is among the first to conduct an evaluation of the CO 2 reduction effect of China's emission trading scheme (ETS) pilot markets from the dual perspectives of price and scale. The empirical results emerge that the increase of transaction price and the expansion of transaction volume in ETS pilots have a persistent and significant influence on CO 2 reduction. Parallel to this, it is found the rising of transaction price in ETS can be effective on CO 2 reduction by improving the energy structure transition, however, optimization of industrial structure and the development of ICT might be the essential channels driven by the expansion of transaction volume. Last, this paper identifies the synergistic effect on different sorts of contaminants and find it is more substantial to those with the gas state. This paper implies that the policymakers should fully excavate the market-oriented environmental regulation tools from transaction price and volume perspective of views for the well achieving the climate ambitions of carbon peak and neutrality. • This article estimates the carbon emission reduction effect in of China's ETS pilots from the dual perspective of price and scale point of view. • The switch of China's carbon ETS regional pilots to national unified one can make the carbon emissions experience a wave of decline about 6.162%. • By estimating the possible synergistic effect on pollution of ETS market pilots, which find it is more significant to pollutants with gas phase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Piloted in 2013, the Carbon Emission Trading (CET) policy is the most practical tool for emission reduction in China, however, midstream firms increase capital investment to cope with compliance costs, resulting in more expensive intermediate commodities that may hurt export benefits of industrial chain terminal. Based on the A-shared listed firms of Chinese metal industrial chain during 2008–2018, this paper applies the difference-in-difference model to explore the effects of CET on chain reactions of corporate activities. After a set of robustness tests, the results show that midstream firms accelerate capital deepening in response to CET and become more capital-intensive, but gain losses of outputs both in revenue and in quantity, accompanying cost pass-through to downstream firms, which are all contributed by the external pressure imposed by stakeholders and internal incentive from senior managers. Then, affected by price fluctuation in markets of production factors and carbon-intensive commodities, CET increases the cleanliness standards of midstream firms and promote their export benefits immediately, and cost pass-through generates more expensive intermediate products and results in export contraction of downstream firms, but precision machine manufacturing has seen export growth, as their products are more sensitive to technological breakthroughs than material costs. [Display omitted] • Midstream firms conduct capital deepening and become more capital-intensive. • Compliance costs transfer to downstream firms along metal industrial chain. • Export benefits increase in midstream firms but decrease in downstream firms. • Corporate activities are driven by internal incentive and external pressure. • Export benefits of downstream firms in precision machinery manufacturing increase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]