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In the context of global low-carbon emission reduction, how to achieve green and high-quality development has become a major issue for the Communist Party of China (CPC) and the Chinese government recently. Based on the data of China's listed companies from 2013 to 2020, this paper uses Python to implement text analysis of annual reports, and explores the relationship between political acuity and carbon-efficiency synergies (CES) from the perspective of enterprise initiative. We found that (1) political acuity positively affects carbon-efficiency synergies. (2) Increased political acuity can reduce carbon emissions, but the effect on economic efficiency is not obvious. That is, low carbon takes the lead in raising the level of carbon-efficiency synergies. (3) Environmental regulations can positively regulate the relationship between political acuity and carbon-efficiency synergies. (4) Political acuity in southern China, carbon neutral and non-state-owned enterprises (NSOEs) will have a more pronounced effect on carbon-efficiency synergies. From the perspective of the root causes of political linkages, we find the synergies between formal and informal institutions, and the key factors for policy implementation. This paper is helpful for enterprises to improve the synergies of emission reduction and efficiency promotion, and has practical implications for the government to promote green and high-quality development. • Assess the value of the low-carbon economy from its political roots. • We build a carbon-efficiency synergy evaluation system. • Political acuity and formal institutions are synergistic. • The influence of political acuity on CES can be replicated. • This paper expands the technical approach to low-carbon research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

"Carbon peaking and carbon neutralization" is an important measure to promote China's ecological and environmental protection and high-quality economic development, and the innovation and application of green technology are critical factors in achieving the "double carbon" goal. Based on the number of citations of green patents of listed enterprises in 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020, this paper uses GGDP to replace traditional GDP and calculate carbon emission intensity. Based on the relevant panel data at the provincial level, this paper constructs a spatial Durbin model to analyze the impact mechanism of whether the promotion and application of green technologies promote regional carbon emission reduction. The specific research results are as follows: (1) Through regression of the core explanatory variables with a one-stage lag, it is verified that the promotion and application of green technology has a significant positive promoting effect on regional carbon emission reduction, and there are significant spatial spillover effects and "learning by doing" effects. (2) In the part of heterogeneity test, the impact of green technology promotion and application on carbon emission reduction presents apparent regional heterogeneity and factor endowment heterogeneity. (3) The mediating effect test verifies the mediating effect of energy structure and industrial structure on the influence of green technology promotion and application on regional carbon emission reduction. (4) In the part moderating effect test, it is verified that marketization level and new infrastructure construction have a positive moderating effect in their influencing process, financial development, and government support will weaken the influence of green technology promotion and application on carbon emission reduction effect, and human capital level has a nonlinear regulating effect. The research conclusions of this paper provide necessary enlightenment for the coordination and unification of China's economic transition to innovation-driven and green and low-carbon development. • The impact of GTPA on reduction in China was analyzed from a macro perspective. • The GS and FDL plays a negative moderating role in the influence process. • The HCL plays a nonlinear moderating role in the influence process. • The GTPA can significantly reduce regional CEI except in Western China. • Regions with high EDL and high GTI have better carbon reduction effects of GTPA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High carbon emissions and population aging are two obstacles to China's development as an emerging economy. It is urgent to scientifically examine the impacts of population aging on carbon emissions to discover new pathways for urban carbon emission reduction. However, existing studies face challenges in terms of focusing on and methodology for accurately capturing the role of industrial production and energy consumption in the environmental effects of population aging. This paper constructs a chain mediation analytical framework and systematically examines the intrinsic linkages between population aging and carbon emissions in Chinese cities from 2000 to 2020 using a two-way fixed effects model. This paper has three main findings. (1) The positive correlation between urban population aging and carbon emissions development is generally low, with coupling coordination degree values of 0.4233, 0.4458, 0.4220, 0.4715, and 0.4665 for each yearly cross-section. (2) For every 1% increase in the population aging rate, carbon emissions decrease by 0.3478% on average. The carbon reduction effect of population aging is significantly greater in low-emissions cities and high-income cities than in other cities. (3) The industrial upgrading (IU) path, energy conservation (EC) path and chain mediation (CM) path account for 72.43%, 7.23% and 20.34%, respectively, of the indirect effects. If the causal link between IU and EC is not considered, the EC effect will be overestimated by 281.16%. The results of the study suggest that properly coping with population aging and reducing carbon emissions are not completely opposed to each other, a conclusion that passes both endogeneity exclusion and robustness check. This paper advocates replacing the one-size-fits-all approach in carbon emissions management and investing more in policy preferences to support carbon emission reduction in both high-emissions and low-income cities. [Display omitted] •The synergistic trends of carbon emissions and population aging are not apparent. •Population aging significantly reduces carbon emissions at the city scale. •Linkage effect of industrial upgrading and energy conservation on carbon emission reduction. •Energy conservation effect of population aging amplified by industrial upgrading. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the global context, countries must reduce carbon dioxide emissions to "net zero" by 2050 to limit global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. China's Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are to peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and achieve the carbon neutrality target by 2060. To monitor the achievements of the NDCs, establishing an annual-based accounting mechanism is necessary to record the carbon stocks in China, especially for Blue Carbon. The paper aims to present China's first national-scale systematic Blue Carbon accounting for mangroves, salt marshes, and seagrasses, covering the accounting subjects of physical and monetary assets, as well as relevant indicators for investors. It focuses on the design of the accounting method and system, the selection of data categories applied to this system, and the application of China's Blue Carbon accounting based on this accounting system. Taking Blue Carbon accounting as a starting point, this paper analyses the restoration prospects of these ecosystems and their application potential for NDCs in China compared with the terrestrial ecosystems. The results indicate that mangroves are the most cost-effective type of ecosystem, even compared to terrestrial forests. Thus, the paper provides policymakers with a new perspective on the decision-making of carbon sequestration relevant decisions, aiming to promote the monitoring, restoration, and expansion of China's coastal blue carbon ecosystem through the establishment of a sound Blue Carbon accounting system, and to help achieve the carbon neutrality goal in China's NDCs through regular and systematic monitoring of its national Blue Carbon inventories. • China's coastal blue carbon ecosystems are carbon sources rather than carbon sinks. • Mangroves are the most cost-effective coastal blue carbon ecosystem compared to salt marshes and seagrass beds. • The Blue Carbon of mangroves is more cost-effective than the Green Carbon of terrestrial forests when meeting China's Nationally Determined Contributions target of increasing forest stocks. • Establishing guidelines for Blue Carbon data requirements will lay a scientific foundation for formulating strategies and policies to cope with global climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The proposal of the dual carbon goal and the blue economy in China has sparked a keen interest in carbon emissions reduction from sewage treatment. Carbon accounting in urban sewage plants serves as the foundation for carbon emission reduction in sewage treatment. This paper re-evaluated carbon accounting in the operational processes for urban sewage treatment plants to develop a novel carbon emission evaluation model for anaerobic-anoxic-oxic treatment plants. The results show that the carbon emissions generated by non-carbon dioxide gases far exceed the carbon emissions from carbon dioxide alone. Moreover, the recycling of sewage leads to carbon emissions reduction that offsets the carbon emissions generated during the operation of the sewage plant. Also, the carbon emissions generated by sewage treatment plants are lower than those generated by untreated sewage. The findings and insights provided in this paper provide valuable references for carbon accounting and the implementation of low-carbon practices in urban sewage treatment plants. [Display omitted] • A novel carbon emission evaluation model for AAO treatment plants was proposed. • Mechanical processes generated higher carbon emissions than energy and chemicals. • The determination of direct and indirect emissions of CO 2 from sewage plants. • Sewage recycling can offset carbon emissions from the operation of sewage plants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Countries worldwide consider solid waste collection and recycling necessary due to the recent emphasis on conservation of resources and environmental protection. Due to the constraints from resource depletion and the need for sustainable economic growth, solid waste recycling has become a critical issue in China. Several indigenous researchers in China have studied the potential benefits of solid waste recycling. However, most studies limited the environmental assessment of solid waste recycling to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and considered only one type of solid waste (paper or plastic). Therefore, the present study analyzed the energy (electricity) and environmental (GHG and air pollutant emissions) benefits of recycling steel, nonferrous metal, plastic, and paper wastes from 2005 to 2017 in China. The study used the formulation of model equations method to estimate the electrical energy and environmental benefits. Prominent findings show that the total amount of electricity saved by recycling solid waste from 2005 to 2017 was 3743.3 Mtce. On average, solid waste recycling during the period led to a 43.2% saving on electricity. Solid waste recycling avoided 4765.9 billion kg of carbon dioxide emission and 22.502 billion kg of methane emission. It was also found that the recycling of solid waste saved a total amount of 10,669.8 M kg of NO X emission but had a burden of −6263.2 M kg of VOCs emission on the environment. Solid waste recycling avoided the emission of CO 2 , CH 4 , NO X , and SO X, but the recycling of steel, plastics, and paper waste had negative impacts on the environment in terms of VOCs and PM emissions. Proper measures such as installing air pollution control devices should be put in place to minimize the emission of pollutants during the recycling of these solid wastes. • The energy and environmental benefits of solid waste recycling is assessed. • The formulation of model equations method was used for the assessment. • On average, the recycling of solid waste saved 43.2% of electricity. • Recycling of waste avoided a significant amount of GHG and air pollutant emissions. • Solid waste recycling had no essential benefit on the emission of VOCs and PM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fiscal system plays an important role in the government's environmental governance efforts. There is currently no consensus on how fiscal structure adjustments impact pollution and carbon reduction. This paper uses China's fiscal "province-managing-county" reform (FPMCR) implemented in 2004 as a quasi-natural experiment, utilizing panel data from 1670 counties in China from 2000 to 2020 to investigate the impact of fiscal decentralization on reduction pollution and carbon emissions (RPCE), as well as its underlying mechanisms. The results show that (1) from 2000 to 2020, China's RPCE shows an overall trend of fluctuating increase, with its value turning positive after 2013. China's RPCE exhibits a spatial pattern characterized by "lower in the north, higher in the south; higher in the east, lower in the west". (2) After implementing FPMCR , the RPCE levels in reformed counties decreased by −1.44%, showing that reformed county-level governments prioritize economic development over environmental protection. (3) The mechanism analysis found that after implementing FPMCR , reformed counties experienced a 9.16% increase in nighttime light intensity (NLI), and a 3.99% and 4.34% increase in the number of large-scale industrial enterprises (NLIE) and industrial agglomeration (IA), respectively. This suggests that FPMCR leads to radical urbanization and rapid industrialization in counties, which is detrimental to the improvement of RPCE levels. (4) The spatial heterogeneity analysis found that FPMCR's impact coefficient on RPCE levels in the eastern regions is −1.96%, while in the western regions it is −1.16%. This indicates that reformed counties in the eastern regions are more likely to invest expanded fiscal resources in economic development projects, leading to a decrease in RPCE levels. (5) The temporal heterogeneity analysis found that after the promulgation of the " Three-Year Action Plan to Win the Blue Sky Defense Battle " in 2018, the adverse impact of FPMCR on RPCE is completely reversed, leading to a 1.76% increase in RPCE levels. (6) Further analysis reveals that localizing leaders can slow down the promotion of county-level urbanization and industrialization by the FPMCR , benefiting the improvement of RPCE levels. In other words, "the outsider monk will not recite scriptures as well as a local one". This study has clarified the causal relationship and underlying mechanisms between fiscal decentralization and environmental governance, providing reliable theoretical support for optimizing grassroots fiscal systems and reducing environmental pollution in other transitional economies. It enriches the field of environmental economics related to fiscal decentralization. • Leader localization can shape government behavior following an increase in financial resources. • Enriched environmental economics research related to fiscal decentralization. • Increase more refined reduction of pollution and carbon emissions indicators to improve evaluability. • Clarify the causal relationship and internal mechanism between fiscal decentralization and environmental governance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although our knowledge of national carbon emission trading system and green certificate trading system are powerful incentive instruments that can deliver on increasingly ambitious climate targets in China, there remains an uncertainty of systems' structural reforms. This study builds on and extends a well-established dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to incorporate carbon trading system and green certificate trading system into the modeling framework, simulating a diverse of system development pathways further allows an exploration of the many possible policy effect. Then, using total factor productivity as a comprehensive indicator to asses policy effectiveness, the evolutionary trend of comprehensive effects under different paths are separately evaluated to discover the reforms' optimal range. Our work offers main results: First, these instruments provide a price signal. The introduction of a carbon allowance auction drive up carbon prices, while the implementation of a green certificate punishment and the expansion of the trading scope promote an increase in green certificate prices. Second, all policy scenarios that help reduce carbon emission intensity and optimize the power supply structure. However, in achieving the net-zero goal, the green certificate policy incurs more economic costs than the carbon trading policy. Indeed, the combination of multiple policy tools alleviates the decline of social welfare levels. Third, synergism design among policy tools: the focus should be on carbon trading policy from 2021 to 2030, green certificate trading policy from 2030 to 2050, and strengthened policy from 2050 to 2060. Reform measures within policies may need to be introduced in a timely manner. This study offers specific insights and tailored policy proposals to support policymakers in balancing environmental goals with economic and social needs in light of the aforementioned findings. Fig. 1. Introduction of the research questions Fig. 2. Framework of this paper. [Display omitted] • Carbon emission trading and green certificate trading policies were introduced into a dynamic CGE model. • The comprehensive performance of different scenarios were measured using total factor productivity index. • The policy effects of different scenarios were explored from 2020 to 2060. • The even more effective reform measures were adopt, within a single policy. • A sensible mix were proposed, within different policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the global carbon emission problem is getting more and more serious, the European Union has proposed the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to prevent carbon leakage, which will have an impact on China's foreign trade. Based on this background and the problems of current research that ignores factors such as commodity prices, long-term impacts, intertemporal substitution analysis, and changes in national strategies for foreign exports, this paper propose a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model based on an evolutionary game as a dynamic recursive basis to study the impact of the CBAM on the Chinese manufacturing industry. For the industries mentioned in the CBAM, 18 affected sectors are collated, and a CGE model containing multiple blocks such as production, trade, and carbon emissions is built. Meanwhile, we establish an evolutionary game model with EU suppliers, manufacturers, and the government, allowing Chinese suppliers to compete with EU suppliers. Based on the above model, the impact of carbon tariff policies from 2020 to 2050 is studied. The results indicate that under the intra-EU competition condition, carbon tariffs will reduce the price of Chinese exports and slightly decrease China's real GDP, as well as the carbon emission intensity of 18 sectors and fossil energy. However, the impact of carbon tariffs on overall carbon emissions is small and is essentially a protective policy. In addition, the evolutionary game-based CGE model takes into account the dynamic strategies of both sides and is therefore less affected by carbon tariff shocks and recovers more quickly and more realistically. Finally, the article argues that the advantage of carbon tariffs for local suppliers is unsustainable and Chinese suppliers will still dominate, and local suppliers need more subsidies from the EU government. On the other hand, the Chinese government needs to implement a stricter carbon tax regime and export subsidies to improve the competitiveness of Chinese products in terms of green levels and price advantages. The purpose of this paper is to examine the quantitative impacts of CBAM on China's related manufacturing industries and strategies to maximize the benefits to both governments. • A new dynamic recursive approach to CGE is proposed that uses evolutionary games. • The strategy of the importing country is taken into account in the CGE model and is changed according to the multi-stage game strategy to simulate reality better. • The influencing factors of export commodity prices are explored, including the effects of consumer sensitivity, green input coefficients, and carbon emission rights prices. • The impact of CBAM on the income and savings of firms in 18 sectors in China to 2050 was studied. • The impact of CBAM on the carbon intensity of China's fossil energy sources, Coal, Oil, and Gas, the carbon intensity of enterprises in 18 sectors, and the national carbon emissions to 2050 were studied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the aggravation of global warming and the increasing demand for energy, the development of renewable energy is imminent. Floating photovoltaic (FPV) is a new form of renewable energy generation. However, the impact of FPV on the aquatic environment is still unclear. By long-term empirical monitoring and data analysis, this paper reveals the shading effect of large-scale FPV power station on aquatic environment for the first time. The results show that: (1) Compared with the non-photovoltaic (NP) zone, FPV only significantly reduces the concentration of dissolved oxygen in the photovoltaic (P) zone. (2) The concentration of chlorophyll a , nitrate nitrogen and total phosphorus increase, while pH and ammonia nitrogen decrease. FPV only causes an effect of the same order of magnitude as the initial concentration, and has no significant adverse effects on the nutritional status of the water body at a coverage ratio less than 50%. (3) FPV has a cooling effect on the water body during the daytime and a thermal insulation effect at night, with the most pronounced impact on peak water temperature (T w). The heating and cooling process of T w in P zone usually lags behind the NP zone by 1–3 h. The diurnal fluctuation and vertical difference of T w as well as the stability of water body are reduced under the shading of FPV, alleviating the influence of climate change on T w and water body stratification. (4) If 10% of the water area larger than 1 km2 in China are used to develop FPV, more than 900 million tons of CO 2 emissions can be reduced, and about 5 billion m3 water can be saved, which is significant in the context of climate change. In general, this paper provides a reference for the future aquatic environmental impact assessment of FPV and the formulation of related policies. • The impact of FPV on aquatic environment has been assessed. • The scale effect of FPV and impact of "fish-photovoltaic integration" are revealed. • Spatial-temporal and object specificity of impact on aquatic environment is reviewed. • The responds of FPV to the challenges of global climate change are further discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing aluminum demand under the clean energy and low-carbon transformation background increases the fuzziness of relationships between economic growth and aluminum use or aluminum related carbon emissions. To figure this out, this paper established an aluminum use and carbon emissions integrated decoupling model within the framework of anthropogenic aluminum cycle. A material flow analysis (MFA) during 2000–2020 for China's aluminum cycle was firstly conducted to quantify both aluminum flow and carbon emissions in each aluminum life-cycle process. Then, this paper evaluated and decomposed the decoupling index of aluminum use-economy and carbon emission-economy via the LMDI decomposition model. Results show that: (1) secondary aluminum has not become effective supplement for primary aluminum in China; (2) the expansive negative decoupling state was the most prevalent state. The decoupling effects of carbon emission were better than that of aluminum use; (3) technology improvement was an important impactor to decoupling process but didn't offset the growth in aluminum consumption or carbon emissions at most of the time. The government and industry organizers should implement active countermeasures to stimulate aluminum companies developing technology to improve aluminum use efficiency and reduce carbon emissions. [Display omitted] • Secondary aluminum supply was limited because the scrapping period of BC and TE department did not come. • Promoting aluminum recycling and remelting are the key to decarbonize the aluminum industry. • The decoupling effects of carbon emission were better than that of aluminum use. • Technology improvement had rebound effect in aluminum consumption before the 13th Five Year Plan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic efficiency gains in tourism are considered a crucial approach to reducing carbon emissions in the tourism sector, especially in tourism transport. However, as a significant source of carbon emissions from tourism activities, the total carbon emissions from tourism transport have not decreased proportionally to the reduction in the intensity, despite China's overall improvement in the tourism economic efficiency. This phenomenon is commonly known as the "rebound effect", which means that although technological progress can achieve emission reductions by efficiency improvement, but it can also indirectly stimulate socio-economic growth and creates new energy demands, results in expected emission reductions being offset by the additional economic growth effect. Based on the multi-source data structure, this paper takes Yangtze-river delta urban agglomeration as an example, quantitatively evaluated the carbon rebound effect of tourism transport through the rebound effect measurement model; simulated the spatiotemporal dynamics evolution pattern of the carbon rebound effect in tourism transport through the spatial kernel density; extracted and identified the dominant factors of carbon rebound effect in tourism transport by the geographic detector. The conclusions summarized as follow: (1) The overall carbon emissions from tourism transport in the agglomeration primarily exhibit a weak rebound effect. (2) The carbon rebound effect is significantly influenced by spatiotemporal factors, which impact its development trend and interaction relations. (3) The level of tourism consumption exerts the greatest influence on the carbon rebound effect of tourism transport, while environmental regulation intensity is commonly employed as a measure to address the rebound effect. This paper aims to enhance the diversity of research on carbon emissions in tourism transport while addressing the existing limitations in spatial-temporal extension. The objective is to restrain the spread of the carbon rebound effect at the regional level, thereby providing a novel decision-making reference for the sustainable development of regional tourism. • Quantitatively analyzed the carbon rebound effect in tourism transportation. • Revealed the influence of spatiotemporal factors on rebound effect. • Identified the dominant factors of carbon rebound effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's carbon emission trading policy plays a crucial role in achieving both its "3060" dual carbon objectives and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 13 (SDG 13) on climate action. The policy's effectiveness in reducing pollution and mitigating carbon emissions holds significant importance. This paper investigated whether China's carbon emission trading policy affects pollution reduction (PM 2.5 and SO 2) and carbon mitigation (CO 2) in pilot regions, using panel data from 30 provinces and municipalities in China from 2005 to 2019 and employing a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) model. Furthermore, it analyzed the heterogeneity of carbon market mechanisms and regional variations. Finally, it examined the governance pathways for pollution reduction and carbon mitigation from a holistic perspective. The results indicate that: (1) China's carbon emission trading policy has reduced CO 2 emissions by 18% and SO 2 emissions by 36% in pilot areas, with an immediate impact on the "carbon mitigation" effect, while the "pollution reduction" effect exhibits a time lag. (2) Higher carbon trading prices lead to stronger "carbon mitigation" effect, and larger carbon market scales are associated with greater "pollution reduction" effects on PM 2.5. Governance effects on pollution reduction and carbon mitigation vary among pilot regions: Carbon markets of Beijing, Chongqing, Shanghai, and Tianjin show significant governance effects in both "pollution reduction" and "carbon mitigation", whereas Guangdong's carbon market exhibits only a "pollution reduction" effect, and Hubei's carbon market demonstrates only a "carbon mitigation" effect. (3) Currently, China's carbon emission trading policy achieves pollution reduction and carbon mitigation through "process management" and "end-of-pipe treatment". This study could provide empirical insights and policy implications for pollution reduction and carbon mitigation, as well as for the development of China's carbon emission trading market. • China's carbon emission trading (CET) policy promotes pollution reduction and carbon mitigation. • Higher carbon trading prices lead to stronger "carbon mitigation" effect. • Larger carbon market scales bring greater "pollution reduction" effects on PM 2.5. • Regional heterogeneity exists on pollution reduction and carbon mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exploring whether informal environmental regulations (INER) can achieve carbon reduction in the context of pollution reduction and carbon reduction, as well as how to achieve carbon reduction, can help solve the dual failures of the market and government in environmental protection. Based on the polycentric governance theory and considering the characteristics of social subject environmental participation, the Stackelberg game is used to demonstrate the impact mechanism of INER on CO 2. In addition, using the panel data of China's 30 provinces from 2003 to 2018, this paper validates the effectiveness of INER by Pooled Ordinary Least Square (POLS) and threshold panel model. Then, the mediating effect model is used to test the mechanism of INER's effect on carbon reduction. The results show that corruption is not conducive to CO 2 reduction. The reduction effect of INER on CO 2 exhibits heterogeneity with changes in other non-greenhouse gas pollutants. While INER effectively reduces local corruption, its more substantial indirect impact on CO 2 reduction is prominent when levels of other pollutants are lower. Comparative analysis reveals that there are still biased governance behaviors to cope with INER's pressure in some regions nowadays. The findings show that for countries facing the dual task of pollution control and carbon reduction, the key to leveraging the supervisory role of INER should be focused on mitigating information asymmetry caused by the characteristics of CO 2. Therefore, in the process of environmental protection, the public environmental participation system should be improved, and the process of disclosing polluters' carbon information should be accelerated. • Polluters may adopt strategic carbon reduction behaviors. • Other pollutants influence the impact of INER on CO 2. • When other pollutants are low, INER significantly reduce CO 2 by constraining corruption. • Some regions still have biased governance behaviors to cope with INER's pressure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we assess the effectiveness of early climate policy in emerging economies by causally evaluating the impact of China's Low-carbon City Pilot (LCCP) on city-level per-capita CO 2 emissions and CO 2 intensity of GDP over the period 2003–2017. The idiosyncrasies of the policy design pose significant challenges for causal identification, which we overcome within a synthetic control framework. Contrary to previous contributions, our results suggest that the LCCP had no significant impact on either carbon emissions or intensity. The main takeaway of our empirical investigation is that even in emerging economies, effective environmental policy requires transparent, quantifiable targets, and credible enforcement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A significant milestone in China's carbon market was reached with the official launch and operation of the National Carbon Emission Trading Market. The accurate prediction of the carbon price in this market is crucial for the government to formulate scientific policies regarding the carbon market and for companies to participate effectively. Nevertheless, it remains challenging to accurately predict price fluctuations in the carbon market because of the volatility and instability caused by several complex factors. This paper proposes a new carbon price forecasting framework that considers the potential factors influencing national carbon prices, including data decomposition and reconstruction techniques, feature selection techniques, machine learning forecasting techniques for intelligent optimisation, and research on model interpretability. This comprehensive framework aims to improve the accuracy and understandability of carbon price projections to respond better to the complexity and uncertainty of carbon markets. The results indicate that (1) the hybrid forecasting framework is highly accurate in forecasting national carbon market prices and far superior to other comparative models; (2) the factors driving national carbon prices vary according to the time scale. High-frequency series are sensitive to short-term economic and energy market indicators. Medium- and low-frequency series are more susceptible to financial markets and long-term economic conditions than high-frequency series. This study provides insights into the factors affecting China's national carbon market price and serves as a reference for companies and governments to develop carbon price forecasting tools. • A hybrid carbon price prediction model named FS-CEEMDAN-VMD-GWO-LightGBM is proposed. • Accurately predicted the national carbon price in China using multi-influence factor time series data. • Using a data decomposition and reconstruction strategy, the model's accuracy was improved. • The SHAP algorithm is used to assess the impact of various influencing factors on the fluctuations of carbon prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To address global climate change, achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality has become a global consensus. However, the means to simultaneously achieve carbon reduction and promote green economic development, particularly in developing countries, require further investigation. This study evaluates the impact of e-commerce on CO 2 emissions. Through an examination of the effects of the National E-Commerce Demonstration City (NEDC) policy from 2006 to 2017, this paper reveals that e-commerce growth facilitated by the NEDC policy resulted in a 7.89% reduction in total CO 2 emissions and a per capita reduction of 1.1146 tons in the pilot cities. Mechanism analysis demonstrates that the upgrading of industrial structure, development of digital finance, and the growth of innovation and entrepreneurship serve as primary pathways for this impact. The robustness of the findings is supported by parallel trend tests, placebo tests, and additional sensitivity analyses. Furthermore, the research reveals that the NEDC policy exhibits a more significant reduction in CO 2 emissions in cities with higher levels of economic development and non-resource-based cities. Welfare analyses show that the NEDC policy has significant socio-economic effects. These findings provide new evidence on the environmental effects of the digital economy and offer insights into achieving carbon neutrality. • The National E-commerce Demonstration Cities (NEDC) policy reduced CO 2 emissions. • Optimizing industrial structure, enhancing digital finance, and promoting innovation and entrepreneurship are mechanisms. • The effect is more pronounced in cities with high economic levels and high resource dependence. • The NEDC policy substantially enhanced social welfare by reducing CO 2 emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Renewable energy (RE) plays a crucial role in global energy transformation, and a thorough study of the potential impact of RE on regional carbon emissions is of great significance. This is particularly relevant to China, which needs to clarify its path to carbon reduction. Using the sample data of 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2021, this paper uses the Granger causality test to verify the causal relationship between carbon emission intensity (CEI) and other factors. It builds a mediation effect model on this basis to explore the direct impact effect and indirect transmission path of renewable energy utilization (REU) on CEI. The results show that REU has a one-way causal relationship with CEI. REU can directly and indirectly reduce CEI by improving social wealth and changing the direction of energy investment. In addition, REU indirectly increases CEI through the transmission paths of investment in the energy industry - social affluence and industrial level-social affluence. The CEI is indirectly reduced through the conduction paths of (social affluence-Urbanization rate), (Investment in the energy industry-Urbanization rate), (Industrial level-Urbanization rate), and (Industrial level-Investment in the energy industry). These conclusions will assist policymakers in exploring targeted pathways for low-carbon power development, providing a reference for strategic and sustainable carbon reduction policies. [Display omitted] • Enrich the view of renewable energy's indirect impact on carbon emissions. • Renewable energy's carbon emission reductions go beyond replacing fossil fuels. • Constructed a mediating effect model between renewable energy and carbon emissions. • Renewable energy can promote or inhibit carbon emissions through various pathways. • Research helps develop more effective renewable energy sustainability strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Resource-based cities generally face the dual pressures of ecological damage and high carbon emissions. Taking the National Sustainable Development Plan for Resource-Based Cities (NSDP) issued in China as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper for the first time, uses the difference-in-difference method to test the coordinated effect of green expansion and carbon reduction brought by NSDP at the county level using rich remote sensing data. The results show that NSDP has significantly promoted the ecological quality improvement and CO 2 emission mitigation in resource-based cities, and the above coordinated benefits mainly occur in energy, mature, declining, northeastern, and municipal resource-based cities. Through the mechanism analysis, we find that NSDP mainly works by promoting the transformation of industry sector to agriculture, animal husbandry, accommodation and catering, finance, and environment management sectors, which are reflected in output, employment, product yield, land type and land transaction area. Further discussion on the tertiary industry suggests that developing tourism, easing financing constraint and strengthening environment regulation, are the key channels to borne fruit in green expansion and carbon reduction. • Analysis of placed-based policy on resource at the county-level. • Coordinated effects of green expansion and carbon reduction are tested. • Key areas of policy effects are identified. • Industrial structure transformation and its related mechanisms are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To mitigate global climate change and achieve CO 2 emissions reduction goals, China proposed to shift to dual control of total CO 2 emissions (CE) and CO 2 emissions intensity (CEI) as early as possible. Accurately assessing provincial sectoral CE and CEI and developing reasonable regulatory strategies is a prerequisite for achieving the goal of dual control. However, there is a lack of comprehensive analysis from different perspectives of the supply chain. Therefore, this paper evaluates the CE and CEI in provincial sectors of China in 2017 from production-based and consumption-based perspectives according to multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model. Then, we analyze the supply chain of transmission sector by betweenness-based method as a supplementary perspective. The results show that: (1) The CE and CEI from different perspectives are different and can complement each other. (2) Production and distribution of electric power and heat power in Inner Mongolia (P5D24), construction in Jiangsu (P10D27), distribution of electric power and heat power in Beijing (P1D24) are the critical sectors for dual control of CE and CEI from production, consumption, betweenness-based perspectives, respectively. (3) Construction in Jiangsu (P10D27) and Shanxi (P4D27) have the highest embodied CE and CEI in China respectively. Energy and raw material sectors from upstream supply chain contribute large CE to construction sectors. This research suggests that paying attention to critical sectors from different perspectives of the supply chain and taking different measures to decrease CO 2 emissions. Taking both CE and CEI into consideration and allocating CO 2 emissions reduction pressures reasonably among provincial sectors. At the same time, taking care of relevant upstream sectors of the supply chain to help a single sector achieve CO 2 emissions reduction goals and promote China's transition to dual control of CE and CEI. [Display omitted] • Identify the critical provincial sectors from both CO 2 emissions and intensity. • Use betweenness-based results as complementary strategies. • The energy and raw material sectors contribute large CO 2 emissions to construction. • Explore dual control of CO 2 emissions and intensity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyzed the theoretical mechanism of the carbon emission effect embodied in the Sino-USA manufacturing trade. We constructed a trade and carbon emission input-output model for 16 manufacturing sub-sectors in China and the USA from 2000 to 2018. A comprehensive empirical test of the systematic emission reduction mechanism was conducted. There were four main findings: (1) indirect and direct carbon emissions indicators can comprehensively analyze the link between production and demand across sectors; (2) indirect carbon emissions are higher than direct carbon emissions in half of the sectors in both China and the USA, and other sectors bear part of the carbon emissions for these sectors; (3) compared to 2000, the change in net exports of both countries is the main reason for the change in indirect carbon emissions, while the change in net exports of intermediate goods is the main reason for the change in direct carbon emissions; and (4) the Sino-USA trade surplus comes at the expense of China's environmental losses, while the USA obtains environmental benefits. Overall, the theoretical analytical framework not only comprehensively considers the interlinkages between production and demand across sectors but also provides a more reasonable evaluation of the environmental effects of Sino-USA trade. Additionally, this study provides a solid theoretical and empirical basis for China to achieve its dual-cycle and dual-carbon goals, thus promoting the rapid transformation of China's economy toward green and high-quality development. [Display omitted] • The carbon emission effect mechanisms of Sino-US manufacturing trade are analyzed. • Carbon emissions indicators reveal production-demand linkages across sectors. • The economic and environmental gains and losses of Sino-USA trade are evaluated. • Sino-USA trade harmed China's environment and benefited USA. • This paper identifies the key path to cut China's manufacturing CO2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To achieve the carbon peaking and neutrality targets in China, carbon price and technological innovation will play increasingly important roles in recent future. It is widely-known that carbon price and technological innovation can contribute significantly to emission reduction, respectively; but it is still unclear whether the cooperation effects of carbon price and technological innovation would be positive or negative. In this paper, we assume that there are 3 types of emission reduction measures in China's industrial enterprises, which are improvement of energy efficiency, adjustment of energy structure, and substitution of pollution inputs and non-pollution inputs; then we introduce carbon price and technological innovation respectively and simultaneously, and establish 12 scenarios based on the Data Envelopment Analysis models combined with material balance principal (DEA-MBP), and estimate the additional emission reductions and additional production costs of China's industrial enterprises when carbon price and technological innovation exist respectively or simultaneously. The counterfactually estimating results show that there would be significant regional and sectorial heterogeneities in carbon emission reduction characteristics for China's industrial enterprises. If low-carbon technologies in some sectors have the ability to reduce carbon emissions at the expense of high additional production cost, carbon pricing policies would encourage enterprises to adopt new mitigation technologies and increase additional emission reduction by more than 20%, especially technologies focusing on the adjustment of energy structure and the substitution of pollution inputs by non-pollution inputs. However, in some sectors which have already been covered by carbon pricing policies, the additional carbon pricing policy may not have a significant effect on emission reduction, and the emission reduction would decrease by 10%. [Display omitted] • Cooperation effects of carbon price and technological innovation are estimated. • DEA-MBP models and multiple emission reduction measures/scenarios are applied. • Introduction of carbon price would encourage the adopting of new mitigation technologies. • Carbon price and technological innovation would have overlapping effects. • Significant regional and sectorial heterogeneities exist in emission reduction features. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Digital technology is an effective way to realize the carbon neutrality target in China. Therefore, based on panel data at the city level in China from 2006 to 2016, we take the e-commerce pilot policy as a quasi-natural experiment, using the staggered difference-in-differences (DID) method to explore the effect of digital technology development on carbon emissions and its transmission mechanism. The conclusion of this paper shows that (ⅰ) the e-commerce pilot policy has significantly reduced carbon emissions. After a series of robustness tests, this empirical conclusion is still valid. (ⅱ) The inhibitory effect of different waves of e-commerce pilot cities on carbon emissions sequentially decreases. The e-commerce pilot policy has a greater effect on reducing carbon emissions in non-old industrial based cities and non-resource-based cities. (ⅲ) Implementing the e-commerce pilot city policy mainly reduces urban carbon emissions by optimizing resource allocation, reducing energy consumption and upgrading the industrial structure. (ⅳ) In addition, implementing the e-commerce pilot city policy has a significant positive carbon-reducing linkage effect with the carbon trading pilot policy and the low-carbon city pilot policy. The findings of this paper provide empirical evidence for carbon emission reduction, which has implications for upgrading urban construction patterns and promoting green urban development. • The construction of national e-commerce pilot cities has significantly reduced the carbon emission of cities. • The inhibitory effect of different batches of e-commerce pilot cities on carbon emissions sequentially decreases. • Playing more significant effect in non-old industrial based cities and non-resource-based cities. • Reducing urban carbon emissions by optimizing resource allocation and reducing energy consumption. • Having a significant positive carbon-reducing linkage effect with carbon emissions mitigation policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Chinese government has declared a determination at the 75th United Nations General Assembly that China will improve its independent contribution and adopt more powerful measures to peak the carbon emissions before 2030. However, such strict implementation of carbon reduction policies is bound to bring the cost of sacrificing economic development. In such a context, this paper tries to use shadow price to measure the average social cost of emission reduction, marginal abatement cost to depict the pressure to reduce carbon emissions based on non-radial distance function, and provides an optimal scheme for provincial emission reduction to minimize the national cost of emission reduction based on variable-coefficient model. Results show that: First, the average value of shadow price is 15.91 and varies widely among regions, which means on average reducing one unit of carbon emissions will sacrifice 15.914 yuan RMB of economic output, and there exists possibility of carbon transactions across regions; Second, on the one hand, marginal abatement cost of carbon emission for most regions presents an upward tendency over time, which means greater economic costs have to be sacrificed with economic development in the future; On the other hand, marginal abatement cost is much higher in regions with high economic level than that in the economically undeveloped areas, which indicates reducing carbon emissions is becoming increasingly difficult and would pay more economical cost in economically developed regions; Third, the optional allocation scheme of CO2 reduction derived from this research is better than administrative ways of Grandfathering and Benchmarking in terms of minimizing emission reduction cost. Results of this paper indicate that larger carbon trading market can be implemented in China to economically fulfill the commitment of peaking carbon emissions. • This paper provides a scheme to minimize the carbon emission reduction cost. • Shadow price and marginal cost of carbon emission are estimated. • More comprehensive carbon trading market can be implemented in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate carbon price projections can serve as valuable investment guides and risk warnings for carbon trading participants. However, the escalation of uncertain factors has brought numerous new hurdles to existing carbon price forecast methods. In this paper, we develop a novel probabilistic forecast model called quantile temporal convolutional network (QTCN) that can precisely describe the uncertain fluctuation of carbon prices. We also investigate the impact of external factors on carbon market prices, including energy prices, economic status, international carbon markets, environmental conditions, public concerns, and especially uncertain factors. Taking China's Hubei carbon emissions exchange as a study case, we verify that our QTCN outperforms other classical benchmark models in terms of prediction errors and actual trading returns. Our findings suggest that coal prices and EU carbon prices have the most significant effect on Hubei carbon price forecasting, while air quality index appears to be the least important. Besides, we demonstrate the great contribution of geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty to carbon price projections. The effect of these uncertainties is more pronounced when the carbon price is at a high quantile level. This research can offer valuable guidelines for carbon market risk management and provide new insight into carbon price formation mechanisms in the era of global conflict. • We propose a novel probability forecast model QTCN for carbon prices. • The impact of economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks are considered. • The prediction accuracy of QTCN outperforms other competing models. • QTCN-based trading strategies yield higher profits than a point forecast-based one. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Process-related carbon emissions, which cannot be completely eliminated by the improvement of processes and energy structure, are recognized as an enormous challenge for in-depth decarbonization. To accelerate the achievement of carbon neutrality, the concept of 'artificial carbon cycle' is proposed based on the integrated system of process-related carbon emissions from high-emitting industries and CCU technology as a potential pathway towards a sustainable future. This paper conducts a systematic review on the integrated system with the case of China, which is the largest carbon-emitting and manufacturing country, to provide a clearer and more meaningful analysis. Multi-index assessment was used to organize the literature and draw the useful conclusion. Based on literature review, the high-quality carbon sources, reasonable carbon capture approaches and promising chemical products were identified and analyzed. Then the potential and practicability of the integrated system was further summarized and analyzed. Finally, key factors of future development including technology improvement, green hydrogen, clean energy and industrial cooperation were stressed to provide a theoretical reference for future researchers and policy makers. • Demonstration on the rationality and importance of applying CCU technology on process-based carbon emissions. • Multi-index assessment on adoptable carbon sources, possible pathways of carbon capture and carbon conversion. • Analysis on the potential and practicability of the integrated system to accelerate carbon neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shrinking cities are a category of cities characterized by population loss, and the environmental problems of these cities are often neglected. Using panel data from 2012 to 2019, this paper investigates the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of carbon emissions in shrinking cities in China and the driving factors. The results find that: (1) From 2012 to 2019, carbon emissions tend to increase in shrinking cities and decrease in non-shrinking cities. Due to earlier industrial development and ecological neglect, shrinking cities in Northeast China have higher carbon emissions than other regions. (2) Population size, industrial structure and public services promote the growth of carbon emissions in shrinking cities. The influence of living environment on carbon emissions in shrinking cities is not significant. There is an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) relationship between economic level and carbon emission. (3) In shrinking cities, the increase in commuting time and distance due to spatial expansion promotes the growth of carbon emissions. Foreign investment decreases with the loss of population, which reduces carbon emissions. Technological progress gradually declines as investment in science and technology decreases, which makes carbon emissions grow. This paper clarifies the driving factors of carbon emissions in shrinking cities in China, and therefore, the findings of this paper have important reference value for the formulation of carbon reduction policies in shrinking cities in developing countries. • Carbon emissions in shrinking cities tend to grow. • Shrinking cities have higher carbon emissions compared to non-shrinking cities. • The characteristic factors of shrinking cities affect carbon emissions. • Carbon emissions from shrinking cities have spatial effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the tightening regulation of carbon emissions, China has launched the pilot carbon emission trading scheme (CETS) since 2013. There is growing empirical evidence of the actual effect of CETS to promote enterprises' productivity which is characterized by total factor productivity (TFP). However, most studies ignored the further analysis of influence mechanisms. This paper aims to explore the impact of CETS on the TFP of enterprises and discuss the mediating role of government participation and carbon trading market efficiency. Using data from A-share listed enterprises from CETS-covered enterprises, this paper employed a combination of the propensity score matching (PSM) and difference-in-differences (DID) strategies and found that the CETS has a statistically significant positive impact on the TFP of enterprises, and the positive effect has been maintained for six years since its inception. The moderation analysis indicated that: (1) two dimensions of government participation in terms of the market incentive and government supervision significantly moderate the positive impact of CETS on TFP of enterprises; (2) two dimensions of carbon trading market efficiency in terms of the market scale and liquidity significantly moderates the positive impact of CETS on TFP of enterprises. In light of Chinese pilots CETS policy, the study highlights the important moderating roles of government participation and high carbon trading market efficiency on enterprise's TFP. [Display omitted] • Chinese pilots CETS significantly improved the TFP of enterprises by 9.48%. • The government participation moderates the positive impact of CETS on enterprises' TFP. • The higher carbon trading market efficiency is, the greater the moderating effect of CETS on TFP is. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Constructing and adopting a county-level panel dataset containing carbon emission (CO 2) and economic information between 2009 and 2017, this paper employs the continuous difference-in-differences (DID) model and is among the first to conduct an evaluation of the CO 2 reduction effect of China's emission trading scheme (ETS) pilot markets from the dual perspectives of price and scale. The empirical results emerge that the increase of transaction price and the expansion of transaction volume in ETS pilots have a persistent and significant influence on CO 2 reduction. Parallel to this, it is found the rising of transaction price in ETS can be effective on CO 2 reduction by improving the energy structure transition, however, optimization of industrial structure and the development of ICT might be the essential channels driven by the expansion of transaction volume. Last, this paper identifies the synergistic effect on different sorts of contaminants and find it is more substantial to those with the gas state. This paper implies that the policymakers should fully excavate the market-oriented environmental regulation tools from transaction price and volume perspective of views for the well achieving the climate ambitions of carbon peak and neutrality. • This article estimates the carbon emission reduction effect in of China's ETS pilots from the dual perspective of price and scale point of view. • The switch of China's carbon ETS regional pilots to national unified one can make the carbon emissions experience a wave of decline about 6.162%. • By estimating the possible synergistic effect on pollution of ETS market pilots, which find it is more significant to pollutants with gas phase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the impact of electricity price reduction policy on the economic activities and carbon emissions of different industries. Since 2018, the Chinese government has advocated reducing electricity price for industrial customers in order to alleviate the non-tax burden on businesses. Using monthly electricity consumption and user data from 2016 to 2019, we find that the electricity price reduction has significantly increased the industrial electricity consumption and users. Heterogeneity analyses show that the effect is greater in heavy polluted industries and industries in low and medium GDP regions. The results of threshold impact analysis show that the threshold value of heavy pollution industries was lower than that of general industry and commerce, while heavy pollution industries are more sensitive to electricity prices than general industries. Moreover, the reduction of electricity prices results in a higher percentage of carbon emissions growth in heavy pollution industries. Our result can also help the policymakers access the costs and benefits of electricity price reduction for industrial customers more accurately. • Electricity price reduction contributes to increase industrial activities and users. • The effect on high polluted industries is larger than that of general industries. • The promotion effect is better in medium and low GDP regions. • A non-linear relationship exists between electricity price and consumption. • The electricity reduction policy causes carbon leakage risk among industries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thermal power industry is one of China's leading sources of carbon emissions. China has launched a national carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS) and renewable energy incentive programs to achieve its peak emission target by 2030. However, since 2021, China no longer provides a central feed-in tariff (FIT) for new centrally located solar photovoltaic (PV) power plants, commercial and industrially distributed PV projects, and newly approved onshore wind power projects. This change in policy may threaten China's carbon reduction targets and economic development. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we assess the combined effects of carbon ETS and FIT on China's electricity sector, carbon emission peak target, renewable energy and economic development. In terms of policy overlap and integration, we analyze the impact of these policies and estimate how to coordinate FIT and carbon ETS policies to ensure their effectiveness. Results show that the overall effects of FIT subsidies are superior to phasing-out FIT scenarios. The fiscal pressure caused by FIT is lower than its actual expenditure because it stimulates economic activity and boosts government revenue. However, considering the multiplier effect of the FIT on promoting government revenue growth and GDP growth, the most effective FIT should be terminated in 2025, followed by subsidies ending in 2030 and 2035. • Using the dynamic CGE model, the combined effect of Feed-in tariffs and carbon ETS is simulated. • This paper found that the overall effects of continuous FIT subsidies are superior to phasing-out FIT scenarios. • The fiscal pressure caused by continuous FIT is lower than its actual expenditure. • Considering the multiplier effect of the FIT, the most effective subsidy policy should be terminated in 2025. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China pushed for the unification of markets for natural resources and emissions, wherein initial allocation mechanisms have a significant impact on how well the market functions. To identify how the market works well, this paper builds an integrated framework, comprised of permits initialization and reallocation processes. Additionally, we simulate variables by 2030 through scenario analysis and machine learning methods. At the unified energy-carbon market, GDP could increase by more than 49%, while the total energy consumption and the total carbon emission increase by around 410 million tons and 711 million tons, respectively, in China. This illustrates how joint trading markets favor economic growth and emission reduction simultaneously. Besides, most of China's provinces obtain improved energy consumption and carbon emission intensities, which proves the effectiveness and importance of the unified market. However, two rebound effects are found, one is that the increased investment is not always promoting positive effects, and the other is that provinces with higher GDPs have less incentive to cut their energy use. Further, the accumulated per capita initialization type favors energy conservation, while per GDP initialization benefits economic growth and carbon reduction. It's needed that simultaneously constructing an economic and efficient incentive mechanism while effectively playing up the government's role. [Display omitted] • Energy and carbon joint markets have economic and environmental co-benefits. • A novel framework is designed enabling the exchange of energy and carbon permits. • The influence of socio-economic and climate change scenarios in the future is considered. • The influence of initial permits allocation modes on market performance is identified. • Promotion measures are needed especially for provinces with higher economic outputs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study performed an input-output structural decomposition analysis on changes in COD, ammonia nitrogen, SO 2 , NOx, soot and dust, industrial solid waste, and CO 2 emission multipliers for 41 final products over the period 2007–2012 in China. The results show that during the examined period, emission multipliers were, in general, decreasing. The main driver of this was technical effects. The effects that made a significant contribution were concentrated in eight sectors: coal mining and washing; metals mining and quarrying; food and tobacco products; paper printing manufacturing; the chemical industry; non-metallic mineral products; metal smelting and rolling processing; and electricity, heat production, and supply. Moreover, the technical effects presented an obvious spillover. Although the contribution of the structural effects was far less than the technical ones, there were still some structural adjustments that led to significant synergistic mitigation. For example, the decrease in the direct demand of the agriculture products, electricity, and heat for food and tobacco products commonly reduced SO 2 , NOx, and CO 2 . In addition, four technical effects and most of the structural effects with high efficiency made small contributions. More than one third of the structural effects that showed obvious contributions played a positive role. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The carbon trading policy seeks to control carbon emissions by putting a price on carbon emissions and establishing a corresponding carbon market for trading. It is a significant move by China to address climate issues and achieve its Carbon Neutrality target. Therefore, assessing the policy effects of carbon trading is fundamental to its implementation nationwide. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 2008 to 2018, this paper uses the Synthetic Control Method and Differences-in-Differences method to assess the effects of carbon trading policy on achieving Carbon Neutrality. By measuring the net carbon emissions, this research explores the level of Carbon Neutrality in each region. Based on the Five-sphere Integrated Plan (which covers the economy, politics, culture, social and ecological civilization), this research further verifies the impact paths of carbon trading policy on Carbon Neutrality. The results show that: First, carbon trading policy has a significant and sustainable effect on Carbon Neutrality. Second, from the perspective of the Five-sphere Integrated Plan, the carbon trading policy can help to reduce carbon sources and increase carbon sinks by adjusting the industrial structure, coordinating low-carbon policies, promoting cultural dissemination, increasing green space construction, and reducing energy intensity to achieve Carbon Neutrality. Third, cultural construction plays the most significant role in mediating carbon trading and Carbon Neutrality, followed by political construction. • This paper examines the effectiveness of carbon trading policy for Carbon Neutrality. • We use the Synthetic Control Method and Difference-in-Differences method. • The impact paths of carbon trading policy are examined from the Five-sphere Integrated Plan perspective. • Carbon Neutrality should be incorporated into the Five-sphere Integrated Plan. • A cross-perspective study of the Five-sphere Integrated Plan, carbon trading with Chinese characteristics has been formed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Chinese government has made great efforts in air pollutant reduction and carried out strict regulation policies. Since numerous air pollutants and CO 2 tend to have the same root, source, and process, recent studies argue that environmental regulation may also contribute to reducing carbon emissions. To investigate how various types of environmental regulations affect carbon emissions reduction, this paper constructs the spatial Durbin model and panel threshold model based on provincial panel data in China during 2003–2019. The main findings are as follows: First, China's net carbon emissions show a decreasing trend from east to west, displaying significant spatial agglomeration characteristics. Then, formal and informal environmental regulations have inverted U-shaped impacts on net carbon emissions. The "green paradox" and "reverse emission reduction" effects come into play at different stages. Finally, the threshold model reveals that with the improvement of regional technological innovation levels, the carbon-reducing effect of environmental regulation will increasingly come to the fore. These research findings are conducive to providing theoretical guidance for government to formulate and implement environmental regulation policies rationally. • Carbon sink effect is considered in the carbon emissions assessment framework. • The spatial spillover and threshold effects of environmental regulation is studied. • Environmental regulation has an inverted U-shaped impact on net carbon emissions. • Technological innovation level exerts a threshold effect between them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

New energy is an inevitable choice to cope with global climate change. China has invested heavily in new energy, but it still faces enormous pressure to reduce emissions. The effectiveness and path of new energy industry development still need to be solved. This paper studies the relationship between the development of new energy industry and carbon emissions. A theoretical model of new energy firms' production behaviour was constructed, reflecting that the internal carbon emissions of the new energy industry mainly depend on its cost structure and R&D intensity. Specifically, part of the carbon emission caused by scale effect comes from direct capacity construction, and the other part comes from the production-cost effect of R&D. Based on the provincial panel data in China from 2005 to 2019, empirical tests are carried out from two aspects of scale effect and technology effect. Results show that the scale expansion has an inverted U-shaped relationship with carbon emissions, which is supported by the regression with GDP as the threshold variable. The effect of new energy technologies in reducing emissions is continuous. The threshold for technology to play a role in reducing emissions is smaller than the threshold for scale. The findings explain the expansion of the new energy industry in the early stages may lead to an increase in carbon emissions. Our study provides important insights that the scale and technology are two dimensions that cannot be ignored in the process of energy transformation. It is necessary to act in the reasonable range and pay attention to the accumulation of technology innovation and the orderly expansion of production capacity. [Display omitted] • Analyze the relationship between new energy industries and carbon emissions. • Built a theoretical model of new energy firms' production behavior. • The internal emissions mainly depend on its cost structure and R&D intensity. • Extending STIRPAT model from the industrial-scale and technological progress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which was first put forward by China in late 2013, has made a significant contribution to international economic activities and inevitably reshaped the pattern of carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions. Considering the spatial spillover effects of CO 2 emissions among countries, this paper employs spatial difference-in-differences models in order to investigate the BRI's effects on total CO 2 emissions (TCE), per capita CO 2 emissions (PCE), and CO 2 emissions intensity (CEI), respectively. The results of global Moran's I index prove the existence of spatial correlations of CO 2 emissions. The BRI's effect on TCE is significantly positive, while the effects on PCE and CEI are significantly negative, suggesting the BRI has aggravated the amount of CO 2 emissions in the partner countries, but has promoted green development by decreasing PCE and CEI. Besides, the spatial effects of control variables on CO 2 emissions are also evaluated. Some tests, including placebo test and employing alternative weight matrices, are further conducted to verify the robustness of the model. The findings indicate the BRI has facilitated green economic growth, by eventually achieving emission reduction targets in the partner countries. [Display omitted] • The spatial interactions between the BRI and CO 2 emissions are investigated. • There are strong spatial autocorrelations of CO 2 emissions from 2008 to 2018. • The BRI's effect on TCE is positive, while the effects on PCE and CEI are negative. • The direct effects of determinants are far larger than their indirect effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Low-carbon pilot cities can break the lock-in effect of living carbon emissions, which are an important strategic component of China's response to climate change. Current research on low-carbon pilot cities focuses on the production field. Insufficient attention has been paid to whether low-carbon pilot cities can promote the green transformation of residents' lifestyle. Using panel data of 285 cities in China from 2004 to 2016, this study explores the inducing effect of low-carbon pilot cities on residents' low-carbon choices from holistic and single-dual perspectives based on the difference-in-differences method and the synthetic control method. This study finds that low-carbon pilot cities can promote the green transformation of residents' lifestyle, and this policy has reduced living carbon emissions by approximately 15.3%. The transmission mechanisms are mainly green life consciousness and green habits. The conclusion considers the effects of multi-pilot policies and other living differences during the parallel period and is still valid after robustness testing using propensity score matching difference-in-differences. In addition, the policy has a snowball effect, and is stronger in larger cities. Ultimately, this paper provides useful information for the scientific implementation of carbon emission reduction plans in the field of residents' living and the improvement of the long-term mechanism of pilot cities with both quality and quantity guaranteed. • Low-carbon pilot cities (LCPCs) induce residents to make low-carbon choices. • LCPCs have reduced living carbon emissions by approximately 15.3%. • LCPCs can coexist with other policies to achieve CO 2 reduction. • The mechanisms are mainly green consciousness and green habits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the proposal of carbon neutralization, countries pay much more attention to environmental protection. As waste electric vehicle battery (WEVB) has an important impact on the environment, its reverse logistics process has been a vital issue, in which an excellent reverse logistics network (RLN) becomes a prerequisite for waste recycling, cost reduction, profit increasement and efficiency improvement. However, reverse logistics network design (RLND) for WEVBs is still a significant challenge. In general, the amount and quality of the returned product in a RLN are highly uncertain, and the WEVB market in China is no exception to this. From a circular economic and environmental perspective, this paper is devoted to designing a multi-participants-based RLN for WEVBs, considering recycling and remanufacturing processes. Then, a fuzzy optimization model is proposed to determine the number and location of facilities in this RLN, promote sustainable development, reduce environmental pollution, and consider carbon emissions and two types of WEVBs. Finally, the results from a case study in Chongqing show good performance in cost reduction, profit increasement and efficiency improvement, which could significantly support the decision-making of WEVBs recycling. [Display omitted] • Build a multi-participants based collaborative optimization model for RLND. • Consider different recovery options and carbon emissions simultaneously. • Introduce the bill of material in recycling process of WEVBs. • Establish an appropriate number and location of different functional facilities. • Determine the flow and route of different items in RLN. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The high-quality development of the manufacturing industry is an important driving force for high-quality economic development. Its transformation and upgrade focus on promoting the modernization level of the manufacturing industry chain, strengthening the technological and economic linkages between upstream and downstream sectors. To explore the significance of industrial chain structure to the manufacturing economic linkage and carbon emission linkage, this paper compares and analysis the supply-driven and demand-pull industrial chain structure by using structural path analysis method. Under the proportion of 0.05%, the supply-driven industrial chain extends as far as the 8-layer in 2017, the peak value is the 4-layer industry chain, accounting for 31.1%, while it only extends to the 6-layer in 2002, and the peak value is the 3-layer. In 2017, the demand-pull industrial chain extended to the 7-layer, the peak value was the 4-layer industry chain, accounting for 45.3%, while in 2002, it only extended to the 6-layer. The results reveal that the industrial chain structure has been increasingly optimized from 2002 to 2017, whether it is the extension length, peak contribution rate, the contribution rate of high-layer, or the type and quantity of linkage sectors in industrial chain. It shows that the industrial chain structure is an important factor that causes the decoupling of economic and carbon emission linkages. The more optimized the industrial chain structure, the more sectors will generate economic benefits under unit carbon dioxide emissions, resulting in higher economic linkage and lower carbon emission linkage. Finally, from the optimization of industrial chain structure, it provides targeted policy suggestions for manufacturing industrial structure optimization in China. [Display omitted] • The non-competitive IO model of China's CO 2 emissions is established. • The reasons for the decoupling of economic and carbon emission linkages. • The significance of industrial chain structure to manufacturing industrial linkage. • SPA is applied to identify supply-driven and demand-pull industrial chains. • The labor division and cooperation among sectors improves production efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A comprehensive understanding of the effect of environmental regulation policy synergy on carbon emissions is essential for the design and decision-making of the other policy combinations. In this paper, the panel data from 30 provinces in China during 2000–2019 are used as samples to investigate the heterogeneity of different policy combinations and compare the differences using a Bayesian non-parametric generalized additive quantile method. The research results imply that the environmental regulation policy synergy has a significant heterogeneous effect on carbon emissions on different levels. Specifically, the effect of environmental regulation policy synergy on carbon emissions has an inverted U-shape trend at the low quintiles, i.e., before the turning point, it shows a "green paradox" effect, and after the turning point, it shows an "emission reduction" effect. However, the effect of environmental regulation policy synergy on carbon emissions shows a significant N-shape trend at the high quintiles, i.e., before the second turning point, it shows an "emission reduction" effect, and after the second turning point, it shows a "green paradox" effect. Moreover, the effect of environmental regulation policy combinations on carbon emissions reduction has been found to vary significantly across regions. • Effect of environmental regulation policy synergy on carbon emissions is explored. • The mediating role of industrial structure is considered. • The effect of ERPS on CE has an inverted U-shape trend at the low quintiles, which shows a significant N-shape trend at the high quintiles. • Significant difference in the efficiency for implementation of ERPS in regions with different levels of CE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the country with the highest carbon emissions, the main focus of China has become carbon reduction. At present, the governance of carbon reduction is mainly based on the division of administrative regions, which leads to the governance inefficiency and high costs because of spatial spillover and regional mobility of carbon emissions. The need for collaborative governance to promote carbon reduction performance has been recognized. However, because of differences in both costs and benefits between developed and less developed regions, a clear cost and benefit allocation mechanism must be established first. Fairness is very important when all members are to actively participate in collaborative carbon emission reduction efforts. In this paper, one of the regions renowned for collaborative governance—the Yangtze River Delta region—is used as example, and a cost-benefit allocation mechanism is constructed that incorporates members' fairness concerns. The carbon emission efficiency, carbon reduction efforts, and total carbon emission amount are compared under two scenarios: a cost-sharing scenario and a centralized decision-making scenario. The results indicate that, compared with the centralized decision-making scenario, the cost-sharing scenario achieved greater regional carbon reduction efforts, a higher carbon emission efficiency, and more total emissions. Furthermore, under the cost-sharing scenario, in less developed regions, fairness concerns increase carbon emission efficiency and total carbon emissions. The fairness concern in developed regions reduces the profit proportion, while the fairness concern in less developed region increases the profit proportion. The impact of fairness concern on carbon reduction is stronger in developed regions. • Carbon emissions from cost-sharing and centralized decision-making are compared. • Impacts of fairness concerns of local governments are considered. • A rational cost-benefit allocation mechanism is developed. • The centralized decision-making pattern is more efficient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a major carbon dioxide-emitting country, China set carbon trading market to reduce enterprise carbon emissions through the rational allocation of carbon quotas among different enterprises and regions. The market has also conducted a preliminary exploration for the country to achieve carbon dioxide emissions peak in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060 while actively addressing the challenges of global climate change. This study analysed the emission reduction effect of China's carbon trading pilot policy, especially the role of carbon quota and carbon trading price. The analysis used county-level panel data from 1997 to 2017, regarded the implementation of the carbon trading pilot policy as a quasi-natural experiment, and used the difference-in-differences method. The results showed that, first, the policy implementation not only reduced regional carbon emissions but also inhibited carbon dioxide emissions per capita, with long-term effects. Second, the carbon emission reduction effect brought by the carbon pilot policy showed significant heterogeneous results with the different degrees of regional carbon emissions and environmental supervision. The effect was greater in areas with higher carbon emission density and stronger legal supervision. Third, the difference in carbon quota allocations resulted in different emission reduction effects, among which the historical method had the strongest effect. The carbon quota price and number of enterprises participating carbon trading market were the key factors affecting carbon emission reduction. • This paper investigates the impact of carbon emission trading market on the carbon reduction. • China provides an excellent "Quasi-natural Experiment" for assessing the role of carbon emission trading market in environmental management. • It is found that policy implementation has significantly reduced various types of carbon emissions, and this reduction effect is long-term. • Stimulating the vitality of the carbon market and expanding the supply and demand of carbon quotas are the main ways to achieve carbon emission reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Low-carbon emissions are a major research focus to solve the problem of global warming and an important area that China needs to focus on to achieve high-quality development. Construction land scale is a non-negligible factor affecting carbon emissions. However, carbon emission impacts of county-scale spatial heterogeneity in construction land scale are under addressed in contemporary research. To address this gap, this paper took 1042 counties in China's Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) and developed datasets of the influencing factors including the construction land scale, GDP, secondary industry output proportion in GDP, residential population, and fixed asset investment. After comparing the ordinary least squares and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models, we applied GWR for more in-depth analyses. The global regression model results showed that the effect of the scale of construction land on carbon emissions was exceedingly significant and that the directions of the impacts coincided with the predictions. Further, local regression model results showed that construction land scale had significant spatial heterogeneity in the impact on carbon emissions and most counties (69.58%) showed significant positive correlations. The counties with significant construction land scale impacts on carbon emissions were concentrated and contiguous in spatial distribution and spatially clustered areas varied, with the clearest impact in the downstream region. The findings help to further identify the spatial heterogeneity of construction land scale impacts on carbon emissions, which provides evidence-based and theoretical support for policymakers to develop spatially differentiated emission reduction measures. • County-level emissions are high in the east, low in the west, and cluster in cities. • Construction land scale has a positive impact on carbon emissions. • Significant spatial heterogeneity in construction land scale impacts. • Significant impact counties are concentrated and contiguous in spatial distribution. • The most obvious impact was in the downstream area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the gross trade accounting method and WIOD data, this paper quantifies the global carbon transfer from 2000 to 2014. The social network analysis and temporal exponential random graph model (TERGM) are employed to investigate the structural change and influencing factors of global carbon transfer network from a global value chains (GVCs) perspective. Results show that the deepening of the GVC division connection has enhanced the relations in global carbon transfer network, and the low reciprocity and high disassortativity lie in the difference in GVC division positions among economies. Block model analysis manifests that Plate Ⅱ acts as the engine plate in the network which consists of China and the other four economies. The GVC division connection and relative GVC division position significantly facilitate the formation of carbon emission transfer relations. Moreover, economies' attribute effects and endogenous network structure effects are non-negligible important determinants of network formation. [Display omitted] • Structural change of global carbon transfer network derives from the GVC division. • Global carbon transfer network has low reciprocity and high disassortativity. • Plate Ⅱ composed of China and the other four economies is the engine plate. • Temporal exponential random graph model is used to analyze the influencing factors. • GVC division connection and relative division position boot the network formation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming and climate change are gaining traction in recent years. As a major cause of global warming, carbon emissions were centered to China's climate change policy initiatives. Nevertheless, the existing policy discourse has yet reached a consensus on the optimal modeling method for carbon emissions prediction that is well-informed of both policy goals and the time-series pattern of carbon emissions. This paper fills the gap by promoting a novel data-driven decision model for carbon emissions prediction that is based on the extended belief rule base (EBRB) inference model. The new decision model consists of three components: 1) an indicator integration method, which aims to generate a few group indicators from a large number of statistical indicators; 2) a new EBRB construction method, which aims to consider the management policy goals for constructing EBRB; 3) a new ER-based inference method, which aims to predict carbon emissions based on time series change of relevant factors. The effectiveness of the proposed decision model has been tested against carbon emissions management data from 30 provinces in China. Experimental results demonstrate that the model will offer powerful reference value in the policy decision-making process, which will help to meet policy requirements for carbon emissions. • Proposing statistical indicators integration method for group indicator. • Considering the management policy goals in EBRB construction. • Proposing an ER-based inference model based on time series analysis. • Providing a case study for carbon dioxide emissions prediction of China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Protecting our environment while maintaining economic growth, requires a delicate balance among interlinked sustainable development policies. In this paper, we examine China's economic industries, including a high-resolution of the country's electricity sector during 2020–2030, using a multi-objective optimization model based on Input-Output analysis. This model, investigates the synergy and trade-offs of sustainable development goals in maximizing employment and GDP while minimizing energy and water consumption, CO 2 emissions, and five major pollutants to advance a sustainable industrial structure adjustment pathway for China. Our results reveal that there exists both synergies and trade-offs among multiple objectives, e.g., synergy among goals of minimizing air pollutant emissions and trade-offs between minimizing energy consumption and maximizing employment. Through the planned industrial restructuring period (2020–2030), the GDP, employment, carbon emission, and energy consumption will increase respectively by, 96.1%, 7.2%, 16.8%, 16.8%, and 6.3%, while pollutant emissions would decrease. Moreover, our research indicates that energy and water conservation should be prioritized in industrial structure adjustment strategies and policies. Our model demonstrates how the synergies and trade-offs among multiple policy targets can empower policy-makers, especially in developing nations, to make more informed and optimized industrial structure adjustment policies for sustainable development. • A multi-objective optimization model based on the Input-Output model is proposed. • Synergies and trade-offs among policy targets are examined. • The structural adjustment of economic sectors with fine-resolution power sectors is investigated. • The compromise solution and the most recommended policy priority are explored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although there are some review papers on carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), hardly any of these reviews are focused on the role of CO 2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) in accelerating carbon neutrality in China. In this review, strategies to achieve carbon neutrality is briefly but critically discussed, followed by a review of CO 2 -EOR as a promising technology. Especially, data analysis, including the number of publications on China's carbon neutrality, per capita CO 2 emissions, China's power generation, and the crude oil production of China's large oilfields, is carried out to make the discussion more comprehensive. Given the large amount of coal consumed in China, the high percent of electricity generated with coal, and the slow penetration of renewables already observed, it seems unlikely that 2060 targets will be met without CCUS. In order to achieve carbon neutrality, both reduction in carbon emissions and increase in carbon sequestration are inevitable. Furthermore, it is concluded that CO 2 storage through EOR is likely to have a bright future. However, there are some critical issues to be solved, including the technical issues, leakage and safety issues, cost issues, policy issues, etc. In order to turn CO 2 -EOR into a reliable and more favorable technology, more research and efforts are needed to solve these issues, including advancing carbon capture technologies, improving storage technologies, developing effective monitoring technologies, deploying government support and incentive policies, etc. • CO 2 emission reduction and sequestration are needed to achieve carbon neutrality. • Carbon capture and storage without utilization is not suitable for China. • CO 2 -enhanced oil recovery (EOR) is more viable as a cost-effective CCUS technology. • CO 2 -EOR is likely to make great contributions to China's carbon neutrality target. • CO 2 leakage risk exists and more research is needed to ensure CO 2 is safely stored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Piloted in 2013, the Carbon Emission Trading (CET) policy is the most practical tool for emission reduction in China, however, midstream firms increase capital investment to cope with compliance costs, resulting in more expensive intermediate commodities that may hurt export benefits of industrial chain terminal. Based on the A-shared listed firms of Chinese metal industrial chain during 2008–2018, this paper applies the difference-in-difference model to explore the effects of CET on chain reactions of corporate activities. After a set of robustness tests, the results show that midstream firms accelerate capital deepening in response to CET and become more capital-intensive, but gain losses of outputs both in revenue and in quantity, accompanying cost pass-through to downstream firms, which are all contributed by the external pressure imposed by stakeholders and internal incentive from senior managers. Then, affected by price fluctuation in markets of production factors and carbon-intensive commodities, CET increases the cleanliness standards of midstream firms and promote their export benefits immediately, and cost pass-through generates more expensive intermediate products and results in export contraction of downstream firms, but precision machine manufacturing has seen export growth, as their products are more sensitive to technological breakthroughs than material costs. [Display omitted] • Midstream firms conduct capital deepening and become more capital-intensive. • Compliance costs transfer to downstream firms along metal industrial chain. • Export benefits increase in midstream firms but decrease in downstream firms. • Corporate activities are driven by internal incentive and external pressure. • Export benefits of downstream firms in precision machinery manufacturing increase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we identify the causal effects of the industrial transfer policy (ITP) on carbon emissions. Specifically, we treat the demonstration zones of undertaking industrial transfer in China as a quasi-natural experiment and evaluation its carbon mitigation effects using the difference-in-differences (DID) and matching DID strategies. Our findings suggest that the ITP exerts a significant negative impact on carbon emissions. In particular, both the DID and matching DID estimates indicate that the ITP leads to mitigate carbon emissions by approximately 4.9 and 4.7 million tons, respectively. We also investigate the heterogeneous carbon mitigation effects of the ITP. Moreover, various checks and falsification tests are also presented to confirm the causal effects, including the placebo test, concurrent events test, alternative measures of the ITP and carbon emissions, alternative estimation method and matching technique. The results indicate that our key conclusion, the carbon mitigation effect of the ITP is robust. These results indicate that policymakers should seize the carbon mitigation dividend of the ITP to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality. Policymakers should also reduce the regional development differences, improve the level of opening to the outside world, strengthen the construction of green demonstration zones for industrial transfer to mitigate carbon emissions. • The carbon mitigation effects of the demonstration zones of undertaking industrial transfer in China are investigated. • The industrial transfer policy leads to mitigate carbon emissions by approximately 4.7 million tons. • The heterogeneous carbon mitigation effects of the industrial transfer policy are examined. • The results are supported by robustness and falsification checks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]