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Understanding the impact of climate change on terrestrial wet and dry changes and the relationship between the two is of great significance to the sustainable development of terrestrial ecosystems. The farming-pastoral ecotone of northern China (FPENC) is an area that is sensitive to climate change, suffering from perennial drought and a clear aridification trend. Unlike previous single-factor, single-timescale studies, we identified aridification in the region based on a dataset established by remote sensing and ground-based monitoring stations from a combination of two perspectives: climate and soil. The results show that, in terms of climate, the period from 2000 to 2019 was the driest in the region during the last 120 years , and the summer drought was the most severe and shifted from a summer to spring drought; in terms of soil, the soil aridification trend in the region was severe, with 16.1% of the areas becoming significantly drier (P < 0.1) among the years and 41.6% in spring, respectively. Similar to climate change, soils exhibited recessive aridification due to the counterbalancing effect of the dry and wet seasons within the year. Then the coupling relationship between climate change and soil aridification was established in time and space. Moreover, the spatiotemporal response patterns of both were obtained. The results showed that the frequency of soil drought under meteorological drought conditions showed an increasing trend and that the sensitivity of soil drought occurrence increased. Among them, the effect of precipitation on relative soil moisture (RSM) was immediate, and the effect of prolonged warming on RSM is greater. The area of soil aridification that was caused by climatic aridification in spring accounted for 13.7% of the entire area. The regional aridification research mode proposed in this paper can provide ideas for subsequent studies. [Display omitted] • A comprehensive judgment mode of the regional aridification combining climate elements, soil moisture was established. • Over the last 20 years, the central part of the FPENC showed overall warming and wetting of the climate. • Over the last 20 years, the trend of the soil aridification in the central part of the FPENC remained severe. • The counterbalancing effect of the dry and wet seasons leads to recessive aridification. • The sensitivity of the occurrences of soil drought to the climate drought anomalies continuously became stronger. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the impact of climate change on terrestrial wet and dry changes and the relationship between the two is of great significance to the sustainable development of terrestrial ecosystems. The farming-pastoral ecotone of northern China (FPENC) is an area that is sensitive to climate change, suffering from perennial drought and a clear aridification trend. Unlike previous single-factor, single-timescale studies, we identified aridification in the region based on a dataset established by remote sensing and ground-based monitoring stations from a combination of two perspectives: climate and soil. The results show that, in terms of climate, the period from 2000 to 2019 was the driest in the region during the last 120 years , and the summer drought was the most severe and shifted from a summer to spring drought; in terms of soil, the soil aridification trend in the region was severe, with 16.1% of the areas becoming significantly drier (P < 0.1) among the years and 41.6% in spring, respectively. Similar to climate change, soils exhibited recessive aridification due to the counterbalancing effect of the dry and wet seasons within the year. Then the coupling relationship between climate change and soil aridification was established in time and space. Moreover, the spatiotemporal response patterns of both were obtained. The results showed that the frequency of soil drought under meteorological drought conditions showed an increasing trend and that the sensitivity of soil drought occurrence increased. Among them, the effect of precipitation on relative soil moisture (RSM) was immediate, and the effect of prolonged warming on RSM is greater. The area of soil aridification that was caused by climatic aridification in spring accounted for 13.7% of the entire area. The regional aridification research mode proposed in this paper can provide ideas for subsequent studies. [Display omitted] • A comprehensive judgment mode of the regional aridification combining climate elements, soil moisture was established. • Over the last 20 years, the central part of the FPENC showed overall warming and wetting of the climate. • Over the last 20 years, the trend of the soil aridification in the central part of the FPENC remained severe. • The counterbalancing effect of the dry and wet seasons leads to recessive aridification. • The sensitivity of the occurrences of soil drought to the climate drought anomalies continuously became stronger. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper presents characteristics of droughts simulated by global climate models (GCMs) under enhanced greenhouse gases conditions. We used a drought index called the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) which takes both rainfall and potential evapotranspiration into account to investigate variations of droughts among 12 regions in Australia. The RDI was applied to simulated climate variables from 14 GCMs performed for the IPCC 4th Assessment Report. The results show a general increase in drought areal extent and/or frequency for most regions. However, the increases are not significant over the North West, North Queensland, Queensland East Coast and Central Queensland. For most regions, the change beyond 2030 is larger than that prior to 2030, but the uncertainty in the projections also increases with time. By 2030, there is a likely (>66% probability) risk of twice or more drought affected area and/or twice as often drought frequency over South West Western Australia. By 2050, this will include the Murray-Darling Basin, South Australia and Victoria, and by 2070 this will extend to New South Wales and Tasmania. For North Queensland such a risk is unlikely (<33% probability) for the next 100 years. This information can be considered indicative in long-term planning focussing on sustainability. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]