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Understanding the changes in hydrological process is a key subject for water resource management of a high-diversity watershed. In this paper, through an establishment of a SWAT-based model, the effects of climate change and its induced vegetation change on hydrological process were analyzed in the East River Basin. The model could well simulate the hydrological processes of the basin including surface runoff (SURQ), groundwater (GWQ), lateral flow (LATQ), total water yield (WYLD), actual evapotranspiration (ET), and groundwater recharge (PERC). Under the vegetation change induced by temperature increase, the effects of the vegetation change on hydrological process were larger than that of the temperature change. Under the vegetation change caused by the increase of temperature and precipitation, the vegetation change enhanced the effects of climate change on annual SURQ, LATQ, GWQ, WYLD, and PERC of the basin. Under spatial scale, when the temperature and precipitation changed simultaneously, the increase of precipitation could promote the increase of annual ET in sub-watersheds. Also, the annual SURQ, WYLD, GWQ and ET in western sub-watersheds were more sensitive to the cumulative changes of vegetation and climate. This work can provide useful information to decision makers in water resource management of watersheds. • A SWAT-based model was established for a multi-level simulation. • Response of hydrological process to a climate-driven vegetation change was explored. • Effect of climate and vegetation changes on hydrological process was quantified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The nonparametric Mann–Kendall test was used to detect the trends of major hydroclimatic variables in the Tarim River Basin, the largest inland river basin in China for the period of 1960–2007. Results showed that both mean annual air temperature and precipitation experienced an increasing trend, while annual streamflow demonstrated a mixed trend of decreasing and increasing: The mountainous region upstream showed an increasing trend and the region downstream exhibited a decreasing trend. Impacts of the increased air temperature on streamflow have shown different characteristics depending on location and seasons: it has positive effect on the runoff at mountainous region due to snowmelt and glacier-melt in spring, but negative effect on the runoff at plain area due to the increase of actual evaporation in summer. In addition, human activity contributed to the declining of streamflow in the arid plain oases at downstream of the Tarim River Basin. The results obtained in this paper can be used as a reference for the planning and management of water resources to maintain the health of the river system. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]