Search

Abstract: This paper estimates the effects of humidity and temperature on mortality rates in the United States (c. 1973–2002) in order to provide an insight into the potential health impacts of climate change. I find that humidity, like temperature, is an important determinant of mortality. Coupled with Hadley CM3 climate-change predictions, I project that mortality rates are likely to change little on the aggregate for the United States. However, distributional impacts matter: mortality rates are likely to decline in cold and dry areas, but increase in hot and humid areas. Further, accounting for humidity has important implications for evaluating these distributional effects. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Currently, cap-and-trade programs are a cornerstone of many countries' climate change policies and proposals. This paper investigates the economic and environmental effects of different climate change policy designs in a general equilibrium setting with heterogeneous firms and monopolistic competition. The analysis predicts that the cap on emissions perfectly defines the environmental quality but has no effect on firms' profits, or decisions to enter or exit the market. In contrast, increasing the share of free allocations of emission allowances, as opposed to auctions, has no effect on environmental quality but reallocates resources among firms toward the most productive ones which has an impact on firms' entry and exit decisions, the mass of firms, and the composition of the market. Firm heterogeneity magnifies these economic effects of changes in the initial allocation of allowances. The paper provides a decomposition of the change in aggregate emissions which takes account of the changes at sector level, across the firms within a sector, and at the firm level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the employment impact of British Columbia's revenue-neutral carbon tax implemented in 2008. While all industries appear to benefit from the redistributed tax revenues, the most carbon-intensive and trade-sensitive industries see employment fall with the tax, while clean service industries see employment rise. By aggregating across industries I find the BC carbon tax generated, on average, a small but statistically significant 0.74 percent annual increases in employment over the 2007–2013 period. This paper provides initial evidence showing how a revenue-neutral carbon tax may not adversely affect employment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we consider a free boundary problem which models the spreading of an invasive species whose spreading is enhanced by the changing climate. We assume that the climate is shifting with speed c and obtain a complete classification of the long-time dynamical behaviour of the species. The model is similar to that in [9] with a slight refinement in the free boundary condition. While [9] , like many other works in the literature, investigates the case that unfavourable environment is shifting into the favourable habitat of the concerned species, here we examine the situation that the unfavourable habitat of an invasive species is replaced by a favourable environment with a shifting speed c. We show that a spreading-vanishing dichotomy holds, and there exists a critical speed c 0 such that when spreading happens in the case c < c 0 , the spreading profile is determined by a semi-wave with forced speed c , but when c ≥ c 0 , the spreading profile is determined by the usual semi-wave with speed c 0. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper describes a methodology for performing temperature retrievals in the martian atmosphere in the 60–90km altitude range using spectrally integrated 15μm CO2 limb emissions measured by the Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES), the infrared spectrometer on-board the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS). We show that a limited number of limb-geometry sequences observed by this instrument are characterized by a high enough signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) to extend the upper limit of the retrievals to ∼90km. Using the methodology described in the paper, we have retrieved ∼1200 individual temperature profiles from the MGS TES limb observations in the altitude range between 60 and 90km. The set of retrieved temperature profiles is available for download in supplemental materials of this paper. The temperature retrieval uncertainties are mainly caused by noise in the observed radiance, and are estimated to be about ±2K at 60km, ±3K at 70km, ±5K at 80km, and ±13K at 90km. We compare the retrieved profiles to the martian Year 24 (MY 24) dataset of the Mars Climate Database (MCD) and SPICAM measured temperature profiles for MY 27 and find good qualitative agreement. Quantitatively, our retrieved profiles are in general warmer and demonstrate strong profile-to-profile variability. The warm bias is partially explained by the selection of high SNR limb scans and can be estimated and taken into account. Overall, the average difference between the TES-retrieved temperatures corrected for warm bias and the MCD MY24 dataset is 4K at 60km, 4K at 70km, 2K at 80km, and −2K at 90km. The root-mean-square of the temperature variability caused by gravity waves estimated in this work is 7K at 60km, 11K at 70km, 18K at 80km, and 25K at 90km. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The space of discrete copulas admits a representation as a convex polytope, and this has been exploited in entropy-copula methods used in hydrology and climatology. In this paper, we focus on the class of component-wise convex copulas, i.e., ultramodular copulas, which describe the joint behavior of stochastically decreasing random vectors. We show that the family of ultramodular discrete copulas and its generalization to component-wise convex discrete quasi-copulas also admit representations as polytopes. In doing so, we draw connections to the Birkhoff polytope, the alternating sign matrix polytope, and their generalizations, thereby unifying and extending results on these polytopes from both the statistics and the discrete geometry literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents empirical evidence of historical vegetation and climate change in the arid Pro-Namib and hyper-arid Namib Desert spanning the late 19th century to the present based on one hundred archival landscape photographs that have been re-photographed or 'matched'. Each photo site was evaluated for changes in woody cover and taken together serve as a proxy for how climate has changed in the region. Vegetation change was related to values for precipitation and temperature derived from the Global Land Data Assimilation System for the period 1948–2017 as well as the number of fog days expected at a site. The resulting analysis reveals a trend of increased vegetation cover associated with increased precipitation (fog and rain) in the coastal Fogbelt and the inland Savanna transition with a shrinking of the hyper-arid Minimum zone between the two. These findings accord with projected effects of global warming on the Benguela upwelling system but are at variance with regional climate model forecasts that project widespread aridification. In the absence of long-term climate data, the results of this research are an important contribution of evidence-based knowledge of past climate trends and their relationship to future climate change scenarios for the region. • Global change models predict Namibia becoming hotter leading to aridification. • We used historical photos of the Pro-Namib and Namib Desert to test this forecast. • Correlations between historical climate values and vegetation change were analysed. • Contrary to expectations, woody plant cover has increased at most locations. • Past trends of increased rainfall and fog predict environmental futures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Concern about climate and its impact on human populations in the Sahel since the 1970s was an immediate response to the most recent of recurrent drought periods. Understanding the relative impact of this drought on rural life in the Sahel is, however, not straightforward. This is due to the fact that climate is only one of many factors influencing local adaptation strategies to environmental changes. Another explanation could be that climate in many rural communities in the Sahel is simply no longer the primary worry. The argument presented in this paper, supported by data from a small village in northern Burkina Faso, is that the villagers there are ‘beyond climate’ as their current livelihood strategies are increasingly climate independent. People have over the past decades engaged in livelihood diversification in order to negate the negative impact of climate variability on agriculture. In order to analyse the temporal perspective of climate–livelihood interaction, the paper employs human–environmental timelines. The results document the multiplicity of exposures shaping decisions in the village. While significant correlation exists between recent livelihood diversifications and major climatic events, it is equally obvious that recent political developments and the economic flow of project activities are crucial factors of change. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper is concerned with the historical dimension of the current debates on climate change, and argues that the history of the understanding of climate change has itself become part of the rhetorical account. Key historic moments of disclosure and revelation have become central to the ways in which climate change is presented as a persuasive narrative today. This paper takes a discursive approach to exploring the background of these signal moments in climate change history, and aims to show how they have helped to shape the terms of the current debate. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: During the United Nations General Assembly''s 58th Ordinary Session in 2003, a decision was adopted declaring 2006 the International Year of Deserts and Desertification (IYDD). This paper critically reviews this International Year. It draws on the key outputs from IYDD events from across the globe to highlight the challenges and ways forward in both combating desertification and implementing the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD). The paper considers what the IYDD outputs mean for the current and historical controversies surrounding the desertification issue and presents an overall evaluation of the successes of IYDD for the different stakeholder groups within the desertification regime. It is concluded that while the International Year can be considered to have met the United Nations''s four objectives: to address the long-term oriented implementation of the UNCCD; raise awareness of the implications of desertification; facilitate networking with all stakeholders; and disseminate information relating to the UNCCD, the real challenge lies in moving the IYDD outcomes away from the conferences, meetings and networks that contributed to their generation, towards a more concrete, tangible effort to conserve deserts and effectively monitor and control desertification and land degradation on the ground. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The paper is concerned with the case whereby the distribution of a firm''s productivity shocks changes without the knowledge of the firm. Over time the firm learns about the nature and extent of the change in the distribution of the shock and adjusts, incurring adjustment costs in the process. The long-run loss in profits due to the shift in the distribution we term the equilibrium response. The transitory loss in profits, incurred while the firm is learning about the distribution shift, is termed the adjustment cost. The theory is then applied to the problem of measuring adjustment costs in the face of imperfectly observed climate change in agriculture. The empirical part of the paper involves estimating a restricted profit function for agricultural land in a five-state region of the Midwest US as a function of prices, land characteristics, actual weather realizations and expected weather. We then simulate the effect of an unobserved climate shock, where learning about the climate shock is by observing the weather and updating prior knowledge using Bayes Rule. We find adjustment costs to climate change are 1.4% of annual land rents. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The literature on self-enforcing environmental agreements (SIEAs) focuses on de- mand-side emission-reduction policies. To our knowledge, Harstad (2012) is the only study on SIEAs, in which countries purchase fossil-energy deposits to prevent their exploitation. He finds that for any coalition size there exists a (small) subset of parameters, different for each size, such that the coalition of that size is stable. However, the comparison of Harstad's results with the prevailing demand-side SIEA analyses is hampered by major differences in the structure of the respective game models. This paper develops a game model with a deposit market and deposit purchases for preservation that is in line with some demand-side SIEA literature. It turns out that either no coalition is stable or the grand coalition is the only stable coalition. We compare the outcome of our model not only with Harstad's model but also with Eichner and Pethig's (2015) model of the formation of SIEAs in which climate policy takes the form of (demand-side) emissions taxes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Rayleigh-Taylor instability is a classical hydrodynamic instability of great interest in various disciplines of science and engineering, including astrophysics, atmospheric sciences and climate, geophysics, and fusion energy. Analytical methods cannot be applied to explain the long-time behavior of the Rayleigh-Taylor instability, and therefore, numerical simulation of the full problem is required. However, in order to capture the growth of amplitude of perturbations accurately, both the spatial and temporal discretizations need to be extremely fine for traditional numerical methods, and long-time simulation may become prohibitively expensive. In this paper, we propose efficient reduced order model techniques to accelerate the simulation of the Rayleigh-Taylor instability in compressible gas dynamics. We introduce a general framework for decomposing the solution manifold to construct the temporal domain partition and temporally-local reduced order model construction with varying Atwood number. We propose two practical approaches in this framework, namely decomposition by physical time and by penetration distance. Numerical results are presented to examine the performance of the proposed approaches. • We develop nonlinear reduced order models for Rayleigh-Taylor instability in compressible gas with varying Atwood number. • We introduce a general indicator-based framework for decomposing the solution manifold and localizing reduced order models. • We compare two practical approaches, namely using time and penetration distance as physics-based indicator in the framework. • We exploit the Lagrangian frame for instantaneous evaluation of penetration distance to achieve good speed-up. • We present outstanding numerical examples which are reproducible with open-source softwares libROM and Laghos. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mineral-associated organic carbon (MOC), that is stabilized by fine soil particles (i.e., silt plus clay, <53 μm), is important for soil organic carbon (SOC) persistence and sequestration, due to its large contribution to total SOC (TSOC) and long turnover time. Our objectives were to investigate how climate, soil type, soil texture, and agricultural managements affect MOC contributions to TSOC in China. We created a dataset from 103 published papers, including 1106 data points pairing MOC and TSOC across three major land use types: cropland, grassland, and forest. Overall, the MOC/TSOC ratio ranged from 0.27 to 0.80 and varied significantly among soil groups in cropland, grassland, and forest. Croplands and forest exhibited significantly higher median MOC/TSOC ratios than in grassland. Moreover, forest and grassland soils in temperate regions had higher MOC/TSOC ratios than in subtropical regions. Furthermore, the MOC/TSOC ratio was much higher in ultisol, compared with the other soil types. Both the MOC content and MOC/TSOC ratio were positively correlated with the amount of fine fraction (silt plus clay) in soil, highlighting the importance of soil texture in stabilizing organic carbon across various climate zones. In cropland, different fertilization practices and land uses (e.g., upland, paddy, and upland-paddy rotation) significantly altered MOC/TSOC ratios, but not in cropping systems (e.g., mono- and double-cropping) characterized by climatic differences. This study demonstrates that the MOC/TSOC ratio is mainly driven by soil texture, soil types, and related climate and land uses, and thus the variations in MOC/TSOC ratios should be taken into account when quantitatively estimating soil C sequestration potential of silt plus clay particles on a large scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Camelids are among the largest wild and domestic faunas in South America and represent one of the most important taxa to pre-hispanic South America human populations. Stable isotope data from these animals play an important role in improving our understanding of human paleodiet, past human-animal interactions, Holocene environmental change, and modern camelid management. This paper presents δ 13 C and δ 15 N values taken from 91 camelid specimens distributed across western Argentina between 30° and 37° S. These samples come from three desert environments (Andean, Patagonia, and Monte) and include both modern and prehistoric samples. Camelid δ 13 C values range between −20.3‰ and −10.7‰, while δ 15 N values vary between 2‰ and 10.2‰. Mean isotope values differ by environmental context, with significant difference in δ 13 C and δ 15 N between Patagonian and Monte or Andean deserts. Camelid isotope values also vary with latitude, altitude and longitude, though differences in δ 15 N are weak, and these geographic differences are tied to climatic variables such as annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and season of precipitation. When comparing camelid δ 13 C values from Central-western Argentina with those from Northwest Argentina and Patagonia, we see a latitudinal trend of decreasing δ 13 C values, with the most negative values occurring in southern Patagonia and the most positive values in Northwest Argentina. Variation in camelid stable isotope values and their association with particular environmental contexts shows their value as a geographic marker and possibly as a paleoecological proxy. These results highlight the need to consider the geographic origin of camelid isotope values when using them to reconstruct human diet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article explores the relationship between meteorology, British imperialism and evolving forms of scientific internationalism in the twentieth century. Focussing on a series of imperial meteorology conferences begun in 1919, it is shown how the British Empire was positioned in the interwar period as a corrective to skewed forms of scientific internationalism which were emerging in meteorology, with standards and data formats biased towards Northern climates. Possessed of an empire of 'all types of climate', British meteorologists identified themselves as a counterbalance to a perceived eurocentrism in international meteorology. The Empire was thus a convenient shortcut to a truly 'global' science, while meteorology itself emerged as a potentially powerful new resource as aviation and agricultural developmentalism took hold. The paper contributes to debates about the spatialities of scientific practice, offering the imperial as an interstitial space where a new globalism might be reconciled with the Empire's diversity of climates and meteorological techniques. It argues that empire was an important way in which meteorology became global - both in its subject matter and in its practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During his forty-year curatorship of the Royal Dublin Society's botanical gardens in Glasnevin (1838-1879), David Moore undertook a number of excursions to continental Europe. These served to deepen the networks of plant exchange between Dublin and other botanical institutions and allowed him to examine the relationships between climate, plant survivability and societal development This paper focuses on two trips taken in the 1860s to Scandinavia and Iberia and charts how Moore situated his experience of these places within a climatic hermeneutic. Moore's understanding of northern and southern Europe was organized around a set of Judgments about their relative backwardness or advancement with respect to his experience of home and was seen through the lens of a moral climatology. Moreover, his Scots Presbyterian background and his commitment to natural theology informed his interpretation of the landscapes he encountered in his excursions across Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents an optimisation method for improving greenhouse design. The approach was based on the surrogate-based method and combines the use of energy balance simulation (ES) and computational fluid dynamics (CFD). The optimisation was applied to study the effects of cover properties on the night-time greenhouse climate. The ES model was verified by comparing its predictions with experimental data. The root mean square error (RMSE) values for internal temperature and humidity showed there was good agreement between the ES and experimental values. The optimisation process highlighted the importance of using a low emissivity and low transmissivity cover material. Under a clear sky the predicted temperature gain by using a high reflectance material compared to a regular one on an unheated greenhouse was approximately 4 °C. The relative humidity in the same scenario was reduced by almost 10%. Two ES parametric studies were carried out, the first showed the effects of different combinations of thermal radiation properties in term of temperature and humidity; the second showed the effects of the high reflectance material under different external conditions (equivalent sky temperature and soil heat flux (SHF)). This paper suggests that ES and CFD can be used together to provide a complete approach to greenhouse modelling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: We present the first results on solar occultations performed with the UV channel of SPICAM, on board Mars Express. From the dataset of over 900 occultations (performed between April 2004 and October 2011), about 640 atmospheric profiles of the martian atmosphere were derived. This dataset, spanning four martian years, allows characterization of the seasonal evolution and inter-annual comparisons of ozone and suspended particles. The dataset also includes observations of the Mars Year (MY) 28 global dust storm. In this paper the aforementioned data are analyzed with a focus on the aerosol profiles. We have mapped the seasonal behavior of the near-surface haze, revealing the typical behavior of the martian aerosol cycle, where the season most prone to develop dust storms (southern summer) shows aerosols lofted high in the atmosphere, whereas in the polar regions the aerosols are confined near the surface. More generally, aerosols seem to remain in the lower atmosphere at high latitudes and progressively penetrate to higher altitudes towards the tropics. This prevailing trend is probably related to enhanced atmospheric circulation at tropical regions due to high insolation and/or to higher cloud formation level in a warmer atmosphere. The dataset reveals frequent aerosol layers, found above or within the persistent near-surface haze. We have observed single and multiple layers (up to three layers in one profile) and we have mapped their properties. The highest layer altitudes observed during the global dust storm in the southern hemisphere, where thick layers form high above the abundant lower atmosphere dust haze. We present results on the analyzed Ångström coefficient α and its vertical variations. We also discuss the conversion of α into particle effective radius and present some examples of the effective radius vertical behavior. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Climate, lithology, soil and especially, intense land use/cover changes, make SE Spain very vulnerable to runoff generation and water erosion leading to loss of nutrients and organic matter and to infrequent but devastating floods, reservoir siltation and mass failures. This susceptibility has led to heavy economic investment and research efforts since the 1980s, making this region a worldwide reference for understanding the hydrology and geomorphology of semiarid ecosystems. Runoff and soil erosion have been intensively studied throughout the last decades in various natural ecosystems as well as in abandoned farmlands. Research has considered a wide range of methods and spatial and temporal scales. This paper reviews the methods and data describing runoff generation and water erosion, synthesising the key processes involved, rates, thresholds and controlling factors from a scale-dependent perspective. It also identifies the major gaps in current knowledge to provide recommendations for further research towards solutions that reduce the negative impacts of erosion. Research in SE Spain has contributed significantly to a better understanding of the effect of spatial and temporal scale on runoff and sediment yield measurements, and highlighted the important role of distinct erosion and sediment transport processes, hydrologic connectivity, spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall, the occurrence of extreme events and the impacts of land use changes. The most effective ways and challenges to predict runoff, soil erosion and sediment yield at the catchment scale are also discussed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Large expanses of linear dunes cover Titan’s equatorial regions. As the Cassini mission continues, more dune fields are becoming unveiled and examined by the microwave radar in all its modes of operation (SAR, radiometry, scatterometry, altimetry) and with an increasing variety of observational geometries. In this paper, we report on Cassini’s radar instrument observations of the dune fields mapped through May 2009 and present our key findings in terms of Titan’s geology and climate. We estimate that dune fields cover ∼12.5% of Titan’s surface, which corresponds to an area of ∼10millionkm2, roughly the area of the United States. If dune sand-sized particles are mainly composed of solid organics as suggested by VIMS observations (Cassini Visual and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer) and atmospheric modeling and supported by radiometry data, dune fields are the largest known organic reservoir on Titan. Dune regions are, with the exception of the polar lakes and seas, the least reflective and most emissive features on this moon. Interestingly, we also find a latitudinal dependence in the dune field microwave properties: up to a latitude of ∼11°, dune fields tend to become less emissive and brighter as one moves northward. Above ∼11° this trend is reversed. The microwave signatures of the dune regions are thought to be primarily controlled by the interdune proportion (relative to that of the dune), roughness and degree of sand cover. In agreement with radiometry and scatterometry observations, SAR images suggest that the fraction of interdunes increases northward up to a latitude of ∼14°. In general, scattering from the subsurface (volume scattering and surface scattering from buried interfaces) makes interdunal regions brighter than the dunes. The observed latitudinal trend may therefore also be partially caused by a gradual thinning of the interdunal sand cover or surrounding sand sheets to the north, thus allowing wave penetration in the underlying substrate. Altimetry measurements over dunes have highlighted a region located in the Fensal dune field (∼5° latitude) where the icy bedrock of Titan is likely exposed within smooth interdune areas. The hemispherical assymetry of dune field properties may point to a general reduction in the availability of sediments and/or an increase in the ground humidity toward the north, which could be related to Titan’s asymmetric seasonal polar insolation. Alternatively, it may indicate that either the wind pattern or the topography is less favorable for dune formation in Titan’s northern tropics. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Nephropathia epidemica (NE) is a human infection caused by Puumala virus (PUUV), which is naturally carried and shed by bank voles (Myodes glareolus). Population dynamics and infectious diseases in general, such as NE, have often been modelled with mechanistic SIR (Susceptible, Infective and Remove with immunity) models. Precipitation and temperature have been found to be indicators of NE, however most SIR models do not take them into account. The objective of this paper was to develop a dynamic model of incidences of NE in Belgium by taking into account climatological data. A multiple–input, single-output (MISO) transfer function was used to model the incidence of NE. In a first step, the NE cases were modelled based on data from 1996 until 2003 with an of 0.68. In the next step the MISO model was validated for incidences of NE in Belgium from 2003 to 2008 ( of 0.54). The output of the MISO models was the number of NE cases in Belgium over the time period 1996 until 2008 and the inputs were average measured monthly precipitation (mm), and temperature (°C) as well as estimated carrying capacity (vole ha−1). The monthly values of carrying capacity (K) were estimated for the whole period by using an existing mechanistic SIR model. K is related to the variation in seed production in Northern Europe, which has an effect on the population of bank voles. In the future, such modelling approaches may be used to predict and monitor forthcoming NE cases based on climate and vegetation data as a tool for prevention of NE cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper explores the existence and potential causes of a stationary spatial anomaly, or pattern incoherence, in the seasonal distribution of warm season rainfall in western Mexico. The anomaly is evident in maps of the Month of Maximum Precipitation (MMP) variability over northwest Mexico (NWMx). Instead of occurring progressively as latitude increases, the MMP occurs in July in the southern part of western Mexico and along the main axis of the Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO) to the north, and in August in the central portion of the region, in Nayarit, Durango and Zacatecas. The Month of Maximum Streamflow (MMQ) occurs in a similar spatial pattern but shifts one month later. This feature is explored through inspection of the daily rainfall climatology of the region for stations with more than 20 years of data between 1940 and 2004. We hypothesize that this anomalous pattern in rainfall (and subsequent streamflow) is likely influenced by the complex thermodynamic interaction between the orography of the SMO and the regional monsoon circulation. The possibility that the canyon system known as the San Pedro Mezquital helps drive the anomalous increase of rainfall in August across latitudes limited to of Nayarit is explored. The correlation between rains that fall over watersheds on the western slope of the SMO and rainfall over the Mexican Plateau is also discussed. We also explore the relationship of the rainfall anomaly to the seasonal march of the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP) and near shore Sea Surface Temperature (SST) variations as they may impact the land–sea thermal contrast. The results of this study based on daily rainfall and streamflow climatologies suggest that a region exists in Nayarit where atmosphere–ocean–land surface interactions lead to a relative phase-shift in the maximum precipitation and streamflow. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper argues that indigenous peoples'' responses to climate change are better understood in relation to emerging notions of citizenship than to climate change crisis narratives. The latter, like development narratives, are often used to license the intervention of experts in debates about resource management and conservation. Dominant climate change narratives about the Arctic emphasise the power of global climate systems to threaten northern communities by situating them as being intrinsically ‘at risk’. These narratives envisage Arctic citizenship within very narrow parameters which have largely masked the voices of northern citizens. Definitions of ecosystem resilience, while providing a framework for comparing disparate cultural and ecological contexts, are predicated on avoiding systemic collapse. It is argued that such definitions heighten the sense of risk implicit in climate change impacts. This may ultimately impede the development of different aspects of civic participation by northern citizens with climate change policy opportunities. Policy responses across a range of diverse geographical contexts require new narratives that put communities back into the calculus of risk and decision-making. One way to be more critical about the language of climate change narratives is to evaluate the extent to which they can account for, and mitigate, growing inequalities of power and wealth. Studies in the historical reception of science narratives are proposed as a better approach for making grounded comparisons of the discursive strategies with which climate change narratives are made to work. This also helps to bridge discussions of climate change across regions like the Arctic and Africa, which share much in common, but are too often studied in isolation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper documents the main features of climate and climate variability across the Monte Desert for the Last Glacial Maximum, the Glacial–Interglacial transition, and the Holocene on the basis of proxy records and for the 20th century using instrumental observations. The climate in the Monte is determined by interactions between regional physiography and atmospheric circulation in the 25–45°S sectors of South America. Although arid and semi-arid conditions prevail across the Monte, its large latitudinal extent and complex topography introduce many particularities at local scales. Paleoclimatic records and model simulations of past climates suggest significant variations in the atmospheric circulation, temperature and rainfall patterns since the Last Glacial Maximum. High-resolution proxy records east of the Andes support the existence of complex climatic patterns with similar temperature changes across the whole region but opposite precipitation variations between subtropical and mid-latitude sectors in the Monte during the past millennium. The present-day climate is depicted in terms of the space and time variability of the near-surface temperature, rainfall and tropospheric wind patterns. Uneven temperature trends over the Monte were recorded for two separate (1920–44 and 1977–2001) global warming periods in the 20th century. Additional warming evidence in the region is provided by extreme temperature records. The non-homogeneous regional pattern of precipitation shows a positive long-term increase between 30 and 40°S during the interval 1985–2001. Ensemble of climate experiments accomplished with general circulation models provide the most likely changes in temperature and rainfall to occur by the end of this century in relation to present climate. Temperature increases, larger in summer than in winter, will be concurrent with more abundant precipitations in summer, but almost no changes or even small reductions in winter across the Monte. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This article presents an extensive evaluation, in several contiguous or near-contiguous areas, of the viability of IKONOS satellite imagery in detecting sub-canopy Maya settlement in Peten, Guatemala. Initial research in and around San Bartolo, Guatemala, led to the conclusion that IKONOS imagery could be highly effective in detecting and predicting Maya settlement of the Preclassic and Classic periods, in zones of dense occupation near swampy lowlands known as bajos. The pioneering methods at San Bartolo are applied here to other regions in the Maya lowlands, but with mixed or unpromising results. Preliminary evaluation indicates that local climate, geology, hydrology, topography, pedology, and vegetation differ dramatically in these other regions, with consequences for wider application of the settlement signature discerned at San Bartolo. Possible reasons for these difficulties are offered in this paper, along with ways to strengthen the use of multispectral imagery in archaeological survey of tropical forests. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: A new technique for climate simulations and projections has emerged over the past 15 years that allows to reach unprecedented spatial resolution at an affordable computing cost: regional climate modelling. The technique has matured and several groups around the world are participating in model intercomparison projects and collaborating in coordinated endeavour to produce ensemble climate-change projections at regional scales. The paper describes the formulation of a specific regional climate model (RCM), the Canadian RCM, commenting on the formulation choices and experience gained during the development and validation process of this model. Current issues in regional climate modelling are also reviewed and discussed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Variables with values in the circle or indexed by the circle have been studied in order to investigate questions in ecology, epidemiology, climatology and oceanography for example. To model circular variables with rough behaviors, the use of Gaussian random processes (GRPs) can be particularly convenient as will be seen in this paper. The roughness of a GRP being mainly determined by its correlation function, a circular correlation function convenient for rough processes is proposed. These mathematical tools are applied to describe the anisotropic spread of an airborne plant disease from a point source: a hierarchical model including two circular GRPs is built and used to analyze data coming from a field experiment. This random-effect model is fitted to data using a Monte-Carlo expectation–maximization (MCEM) algorithm. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: We provide a position paper, using a brief literature review and some new modelling results for a subset of succulent plant species, which explores why Namaqualand plant diversity might be particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change despite presumed species resilience under arid conditions, and therefore a globally important test-bed for adaptive conservation strategies. The Pleistocene climate-related evolutionary history of this region in particular may predispose Namaqualand (and Succulent Karoo) plant endemics to projected climate change impacts. Key Succulent Karoo plant lineages originated during cool Pleistocene times, and projected air temperatures under anthropogenic climate change are likely to exceed these significantly. Projected rainfall patterns are less certain, and projections of the future prevalence of coastal fog are lacking, but if either of these water inputs is reduced in concert with rising temperatures, this seems certain to threaten the persistence of, at least, narrow-endemic plant species. Simple modelling approaches show strong reduction in spatial extent of bioclimates typical of Namaqualand within the next five decades and that both generalist species with large geographic ranges, and narrow-range endemics may be susceptible to climate change induced loss of potential range. Persistence of endemics in micro-habitats that are buffered from extreme climate conditions cannot be discounted, though no attempts have been made to address this shortcoming of broader scale bioclimatic modelling. The few experimental data available on elevated temperature and drought tolerance suggest susceptibility of leaf succulent species, but high drought tolerance of non-succulent shrubs. Both species-level monitoring and further experimental work is essential to test and refine projections of climate change impacts on species persistence, and the implications for conservation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Atmospheric products such as the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis seem to constitute a solution for the lack of direct observations in the Río de la Plata estuary. Forcing numerical ocean models with those data allows the simulation of the estuarine system for long periods including the effect of high frequency wind variability, which in turn constitutes a powerful tool for understanding and evaluating wind forced climate variability in the region. Nevertheless, given the serious limitations of those data sets in the Southern Hemisphere, a question that must be answered before this kind of simulation explains to what extent ocean models forced by a reanalysis represent the real system. In this paper a model validation for the Rio de la Plata inner and outer estuary including adjacent shelf regions is presented. The HAMburg Shelf Ocean Model (HamSOM) code was forced with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to perform four hindcasts covering about 1month in different seasons and five extreme events of storm surges. Three nested unilaterally coupled model domains with increasingly finer grids were used for the simulations. The role of wind forcing over the outer, large-scale shelf region was studied by both including and excluding the forcing for the outer domain. It was found that weak winds in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis are under-estimated, and a correction factor is needed to adjust winds for different magnitudes. The comparison of simulated surface elevations and currents with observed ones yields high correlations, which improve even further when a meteorological forcing is included in the outer domain. The validation comprises state of the art accuracy with regards to problems where stratification plays a minor role. Numerical solutions satisfactorily reproduce both the timing and amplitude of the observed estuarine waters’ response to wind, implying that the quality of the forcing is in turn good. Consequently, our simulations constitute an indirect validation of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis 10m winds. Even though they tend to underestimate wind speed, direction and variability seem to be properly represented, at least in the atmospheric synoptic to intra-seasonal time scales. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) under the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is considered a key instrument to encourage developing countries’ participation in the mitigation of global climate change. Reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through the energy supply and demand side activities are the main options to be implemented under the CDM. This paper analyses the general equilibrium effects of a supply side GHG mitigation option—the substitution of thermal power with hydropower—in Thailand under the CDM. A static multi-sector general equilibrium model has been developed for the purpose of this study. The key finding of the study is that the substitution of electricity generation from thermal power plants with that from hydropower plants would increase economic welfare in Thailand. The supply side option would, however, adversely affect the gross domestic product (GDP) and the trade balance. The percentage changes in economic welfare, GDP and trade balance increase with the level of substitution and the price of certified emission reduction (CER) units. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Aridisols occupy a wide and significant part of Jordan. The majority of soils in the Azraq Basin, northeastern Jordan, are aridisols. A database on aridisols and land characteristics in northeastern Jordan is needed to allow rational planning of land and water resources utilization. The objectives of this paper are to: characterize the main soil types in the area, and identify the main processes contributing to their genesis and evolution. For this purpose eight representative profiles were selected for this study and soil samples were collected and their chemical and physical properties were examined in the laboratory. The natural vegetation is desert shrubs and short grasses. The sparseness of the vegetation resulted in low SOM content and the presence of ochric epipedons in all of the studied soils. The genesis of these soils accounts for the accumulation of calcium carbonate, soluble salts, and gypsum in the subsoil. Carbonate, clay eluviation–illuviation, and salt accumulation are the dominant pedogenic processes in these soils. Silt content increased toward the surface indicating eolian activity. Clay content increased with depth indicating illuviation of clay. Clay illuviation and argillic horizon development within these soils is assumed to be a relict feature from presumably more humid climates during the Quaternary. Desert pavements cover the surfaces of these soils and provide a unique obstacle for agricultural development. The major restrictions to agricultural land use in the area are very low infiltration rate, low permeability, and high erodibility. Proper management practices should be adopted if such soils are to be cultivated. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Adaptation of a greenhouse climate management strategy to local climate conditions is important for the improvement of resource use efficiency of greenhouse crop production. In this paper the optimal greenhouse climate management under hot, humid, subtropical summer conditions was investigated through simulation analysis based on the Greenhouse Process (KASPRO) model, previously validated under this particular conditions. The study was limited to affordable means of greenhouse design, crop and climate management such as ventilation capacity, canopy size and whitewashing, in a greenhouse without injection of carbon dioxide. Obviously, the increase of greenhouse ventilation capacity leads to an increase of carbon dioxide concentration in the greenhouse air, canopy transpiration, and thus evaporative cooling of the greenhouse air and crop canopy, and in turn to an increase of crop biomass production. The results show, however, that there is a rather sharp ceiling beyond which there is little gain in increasing ventilation capacity. For a cucumber crop under the summer conditions typical of Shanghai, the ventilation capacity of the greenhouse should be about 40 volume changes per hour. The balance of assimilation, respiration and evaporative cooling ensure that crop biomass production is maximal at a canopy leaf area index of 4. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper demonstrates how several important results in environmental economics, true under mild conditions in closed economies, are false or need serious amendment in a world with international trade in goods. Since the results we highlight have framed much of the ongoing discussion and research on the Kyoto protocol, our viewpoint from trade theory suggests a re-examination may be in order. Specifically, we demonstrate that in an open trading world, but not in a closed economy setting: (1) unilateral emission reductions by the rich North can create self-interested emission reductions by the unconstrained poor South; (2) simple rules for allocating emission reductions across countries (such as uniform reductions) may well be efficient even if international trade in emission permits is not allowed; and (3) when international emission permit trade does occur it may make both participants in the trade worse off and increase global emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the photochemical surface modification of polystyrene (PS) substrates using vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) light 172 nm in wavelength. We have particularly focused on the effects of atmospheric pressure during VUV irradiation on the obtained surface''s wettability and the stability of the wettability, in addition to its chemical structure, morphology, and photooxidation rate. Samples were photoirradiated with VUV light under pressures of 10, 103, or 105 Pa. Although, in each case, the originally hydrophobic PS surface became highly hydrophilic, the final water-contact angle and photooxidation rate depended on the atmospheric pressure. The samples treated at 10 Pa were less wettable than those prepared at 103 and 105 Pa due to the shortage of oxygen molecules in the atmosphere. The minimum water-contact angles of the samples treated at 10, 103, and 105 Pa were about 8°, 0°, and 0°, respectively. With the samples prepared at 10 and 103 Pa, photooxidation reactions proceeded in the topmost region closest to the surface, while at 105 Pa photooxidation was found to be greatly enhanced in the deeper regions, as evidenced by angle-resolved X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. Photoetching rates were determined through atomic force microscope observation of microstructured PS samples prepared by a simple mesh-contact method. As estimated from AFM images of the latticed microstructures obtained, the rates of samples prepared at 103 and 105 Pa were about 1.5 and 1.3 nm/min, respectively. However, no photoetched features were observable on the sample surface prepared at 10 Pa. Hydrophilic stability also varied greatly depending on atmospheric pressure. The hydrophilicity of samples treated at 10 and 103 Pa gradually decreased as they were exposed to air. On the other hand, the sample surface prepared at 105 Pa showed excellent hydrophilicity even after being left in air for 30 days. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Good-quality CO 2 emission data are fundamental for effective climate policy and governance. Data manipulation should be deterred, while developing countries are generally weaker than developed countries in compiling bottom-up CO 2 emission inventories due to less adequate data collection capacity. This paper assesses the capabilities of CO 2 satellites as objective, independent, potentially low-cost and external data sources for monitoring energy-related anthropogenic CO 2 emissions at regional/national, megacity and point-source geographical scales. After overviewing all major CO 2 satellites, SCIAMACHY, GOSAT and OCO-2 are focused on due to their wider research applications and higher CO 2 sensitivity in total column measurements that include near surface emissions. Nighttime light satellite data for proxy CO 2 monitoring are also brought into comparison to distinguish the importance of direct CO 2 satellite monitoring. Studies are reviewed from the perspectives of spatial and temporal capability and accuracy to comprehend the current statuses of applications, assess the strengths and weaknesses of research methods, investigate major challenges and propose suggestions for future progress. We conclude that CO 2 satellite monitoring can strengthen the data foundation for implementing international climate treaties and domestic climate policies. • We review CO 2 satellites for climate governance as independent data sources. • CO 2 satellites are compared with nighttime light satellites as proxy monitoring. • We examine applications at national/regional, megacity and point-source levels. • The assessment specifically focuses on SCIAMACHY, GOSAT and OCO-2 satellites. • CO 2 satellite monitoring strengthens the data foundation for climate governance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change will likely impact rainfall characteristics in particular locations; the amount, seasonality, variability and spatial patterns. In developing countries, this presents challenges for rural smallholder farmers as their livelihoods are largely based on rain-fed practices. Changes in climate patterns could increase farmers' vulnerability and the need for intervention. In this paper, we develop new metrics of analysis motivated by qualitative research with smallholder farmers. Previous research found that farmers' understanding of historical rainfall change is accurate, yet diverge from some research studies. We analyze meteorological station rainfall data using metrics that are familiar to smallholders. Farmers' perceptions of rainfall in southern Ethiopia were explored through interviews conducted in three communities. Our findings identified some forms of convergence, as well as divergence, in farmers' perception of rainfall trends and meteorological station data results. In asking the question 'Why do data based on farmer experiences of rainfall variability differ from meteorological station data?', we show that using existing data and applying farmer-influenced metrics can improve the information shared with farmers. We argue that, under further climate change, it will be increasingly important to convey meteorological information to farmers in ways that are relevant to them and their agricultural livelihoods. • Smallholder farmer experiences and climate science often diverge. • We develop new metrics motivated by research with smallholders. • New metrics and analyses can bridge some divergences. • Methods developed are relevant for communicating climate science with farmers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]