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Abstract: Expert judgement is often used to mitigate the knowledge gaps that limit understanding of aquatic non-indigenous species (ANS) impacts (consequences) to environmental, economic, social, cultural and human health values. To understand how this uncertainty may affect expert decision making, we explored the presence and effects of uncertainty on consequence assessment for 10 ANS by scientists and managers. We hypothesized species' distribution, taxonomy and impact type will affect assessment magnitude. These hypotheses were partially supported. We also hypothesized a difference in the relationship between consequence magnitude and uncertainty, based on assessor group. This set of hypotheses was not supported, as all group assessments had a significant negative correlation between consequence and uncertainty. Both scientists and managers assigned lower consequence when faced with knowledge gaps and other forms of uncertainty. This aligns with an “innocent until proven guilty” or hindsight approach, as opposed to a “guilty until proven innocent” or precaution approach. Based on these outcomes, the experts appeared to make decisions in violation of both the maximin principle and precaution, instead using a heuristic approach. We suggest several management strategies to prevent biases against environmental protection that occur due to use of the hindsight approach. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The northern Pacific seastar, Asterias amurensis, was first collected in southeast Tasmania in 1986. Mistaken for the endemic asteroid Uniophora granifera, its true identity was not realised until 1992. It is now a conspicuous predator in soft sediment habitats in this region, and is considered a major threat to native assemblages and commercial species. We examined the structure of soft sediment assemblages at different spatial scales in southeast Tasmania, and correlated spatial variation in community composition with seastar abundances. We found that the structure of soft sediment assemblages is highly variable at a range of spatial scales from metres to tens of kilometres. Clear differences in the composition of assemblages and abundances of major taxa were detected between areas with and without seastars and between areas with low and high seastar densities. However, the nature of these patterns suggests that they are more likely due to differences in sediment characteristics than due to impacts of the seastar. Thus, spatial differences in soft sediment assemblages might have been erroneously attributed to seastars without detailed information on important physical factors such as sediment characteristics. A second survey, using larger sampling units (1m2) but across a more limited spatial extent, targeted bivalves and heart urchins that were identified as important prey of the seastar in observations of feeding and in experimental studies. Large-scale patterns of abundance and size structure were consistent with seastar effects anticipated from small-scale experimental and feeding studies for some, but not all, species. While the field survey ultimately provided evidence about the presence or absence of seastar impacts at large-scales, the identification of key ecological variables in experimental and feeding studies proved crucial to both the design and interpretation of patterns observed in the large-scale surveys. Overall, this work highlighted the necessity to consider multiple lines of evidence rather than relying on a single ‘inferential’ test, in the absence of pre-impact data. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The seaward extent of New Zealand''s coastal zone (defined here in a biophysical sense as the area of terrigenous influence) was determined from remotely sensed ocean colour and turbidity data. The cross-shore behavior of the colour and turbidity fields were quantified at a number of transects around the coastline and the locations where these fields changed from coastal to oceanic signatures were identified. Results from these analyses suggest that the coastal zone can extend several hundreds of kilometers offshore. Furthermore, the seaward extent determined from these analyses was not correlated to the underlying bathymetry of the continental shelf and slope; features commonly used to define the offshore extent of coastal zones. The estimated seaward limits determined from the analyses of the remotely sensed data were compared to limited available in situ data and predictions from a numerical circulation model. Observations of coastal zooplankton species several hundreds of kilometers offshore suggest good agreement with the predicted seaward extent of coastal zones determined from the remotely sensed data. Offshore transport of surface particles predicted by the circulation model also suggested that pelagic organisms and suspended inorganic particles may be advected offshore at least several hundreds of kilometers. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]