1. Mathematical analysis of a weather-driven model for the population ecology of mosquitoes.
- Author
-
Okuneye K, Abdelrazec A, and Gumel AB
- Subjects
- Aedes, Africa South of the Sahara, Algorithms, Animals, Computer Simulation, Culex, Disease Vectors, Ecology, Female, Humans, Kenya, Male, Models, Statistical, Nigeria, Population Dynamics, South Africa, Temperature, Culicidae physiology, Malaria epidemiology, Malaria transmission, Weather
- Abstract
A new deterministic model for the population biology of immature and mature mosquitoes is designed and used to assess the impact of temperature and rainfall on the abundance of mosquitoes in a community. The trivial equilibrium of the model is globally-asymptotically stable when the associated vectorial reproduction number (R0) is less than unity. In the absence of density-dependence mortality in the larval stage, the autonomous version of the model has a unique and globally-asymptotically stable non-trivial equilibrium whenever 1 andlt;R0 andlt;RC0 (this equilibrium bifurcates into a limit cycle, via a Hopf bifurcation at R0=RC0). Numerical simulations of the weather-driven model, using temperature and rainfall data from three cities in Sub-Saharan Africa (Kwazulu Natal, South Africa; Lagos, Nigeria; and Nairobi, Kenya), show peak mosquito abundance occurring in the cities when the mean monthly temperature and rainfall values lie in the ranges [22-25]0C, [98-121] mm; [24-27]0C, [113-255] mm and [20.5-21.5]0C, [70-120] mm, respectively (thus, mosquito control efforts should be intensified in these cities during the periods when the respective suitable weather ranges are recorded).
- Published
- 2018
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