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OBJECTIVE: We tested the ability of a type 1 diabetes (T1D) genetic risk score (GRS) to predict progression of islet autoimmunity and T1D in at-risk individuals. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We studied the 1,244 TrialNet Pathway to Prevention study participants (T1D patients' relatives without diabetes and with one or more positive autoantibodies) who were genotyped with Illumina ImmunoChip (median [range] age at initial autoantibody determination 11.1 years [1.2-51.8], 48% male, 80.5% non-Hispanic white, median follow-up 5.4 years). Of 291 participants with a single positive autoantibody at screening, 157 converted to multiple autoantibody positivity and 55 developed diabetes. Of 953 participants with multiple positive autoantibodies at screening, 419 developed diabetes. We calculated the T1D GRS from 30 T1D-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms. We used multivariable Cox regression models, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves, and area under the curve (AUC) measures to evaluate prognostic utility of T1D GRS, age, sex, Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 (DPT-1) Risk Score, positive autoantibody number or type, HLA DR3/DR4-DQ8 status, and race/ethnicity. We used recursive partitioning analyses to identify cut points in continuous variables. RESULTS: Higher T1D GRS significantly increased the rate of progression to T1D adjusting for DPT-1 Risk Score, age, number of positive autoantibodies, sex, and ethnicity (hazard ratio [HR] 1.29 for a 0.05 increase, 95% CI 1.06-1.6; P = 0.011). Progression to T1D was best predicted by a combined model with GRS, number of positive autoantibodies, DPT-1 Risk Score, and age (7-year time-integrated AUC = 0.79, 5-year AUC = 0.73). Higher GRS was significantly associated with increased progression rate from single to multiple positive autoantibodies after adjusting for age, autoantibody type, ethnicity, and sex (HR 2.27 for GRS >0.295, 95% CI 1.47-3.51; P = 0.0002). CONCLUSIONS: The T1D GRS independently predicts p

OBJECTIVE: The phenotypic diversity of type 1 diabetes suggests heterogeneous etiopathogenesis. We investigated the relationship of type 2 diabetes-associated transcription factor 7 like 2 (TCF7L2) single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with immunologic and metabolic characteristics at type 1 diabetes diagnosis. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We studied TrialNet participants with newly diagnosed autoimmune type 1 diabetes with available TCF7L2 rs4506565 and rs7901695 SNP data (n = 810; median age 13.6 years; range 3.3-58.6). We modeled the influence of carrying a TCF7L2 variant (i.e., having 1 or 2 minor alleles) on the number of islet autoantibodies and oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT)-stimulated C-peptide and glucose measures at diabetes diagnosis. All analyses were adjusted for known confounders. RESULTS: The rs4506565 variant was a significant independent factor of expressing a single autoantibody, instead of multiple autoantibodies, at diagnosis (odds ratio [OR] 1.66 [95% CI 1.07, 2.57], P = 0.024). Interaction analysis demonstrated that this association was only significant in participants ≥12 years old (n = 504; OR 2.12 [1.29, 3.47], P = 0.003) but not younger ones (n = 306, P = 0.73). The rs4506565 variant was independently associated with higher C-peptide area under the curve (AUC) (P = 0.008) and lower mean glucose AUC (P = 0.0127). The results were similar for the rs7901695 SNP. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort of individuals with new-onset type 1 diabetes, type 2 diabetes-linked TCF7L2 variants were associated with single autoantibody (among those ≥12 years old), higher C-peptide AUC, and lower glucose AUC levels during an OGTT. Thus, carriers of the TCF7L2 variant had a milder immunologic and metabolic phenotype at type 1 diabetes diagnosis, which could be partly driven by type 2 diabetes-like pathogenic mechanisms.