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The extent to which evolution is repeatable remains debated. Here, we study changes over time in the frequency of cryptic color-pattern morphs in 10 replicate long-term field studies of a stick insect, each spanning at least a decade (across 30 years of total data). We find predictable "up-and-down" fluctuations in stripe frequency in all populations, representing repeatable evolutionary dynamics based on standing genetic variation. A field experiment demonstrates that these fluctuations involve negative frequency-dependent natural selection (NFDS). These fluctuations rely on demographic and selective variability that pushes populations away from equilibrium, such that they can reliably move back toward it via NFDS. Last, we show that the origin of new cryptic forms is associated with multiple structural genomic variants such that which mutations arise affects evolution at larger temporal scales. Thus, evolution from existing variation is predictable and repeatable, but mutation adds complexity even for traits evolving deterministically under natural selection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article explores rapid evolution induced by human activities, highlighting a study by Ni et al. that demonstrates how deforestation alters species interactions and leads to color changes in the Batesian mimic, Zelandoperla. Topics include the mechanisms of evolution through altered predation dynamics, the implications of predicting evolutionary responses to environmental changes, and the integration of ecological and genetic data to enhance understanding of evolutionary processes.

The article discusses how the effects of genes and phenotypes become coupled to cause a transition from polymorphism or geographic variation within species to genome-wide differences between distinct species. It mentions that genetic region that controls coloration generates morphs of Midas cichlid fish, but speciation involves traits controlled by a number of different genes.

Predicting evolution remains difficult. We studied the evolution of cryptic body coloration and pattern in a stick insect using 25 years of field data, experiments, and genomics. We found that evolution is more difficult to predict when it involves a balance between multiple selective factors and uncertainty in environmental conditions than when it involves feedback loops that cause consistent back-and-forth fluctuations. Specifically, changes in color-morph frequencies are modestly predictable through time (r2 = 0.14) and driven by complex selective regimes and yearly fluctuations in climate. In contrast, temporal changes in pattern-morph frequencies are highly predictable due to negative frequency-dependent selection (r2 = 0.86). For both traits, however, natural selection drives evolution around a dynamic equilibrium, providing some predictability to the process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses a study by M. A. Barbour and colleagues, published within the issue, which showed that a gene affecting a plant's resistance to herbivory also influences the persistence of the food web through the gene's effect on plant growth. Topics include reason that it is important to determine the genes that underlie eco-evolutionary dynamics, how the gene affects extinction, and comparison between studying complex genetic architectures and studying single genes.

Natural selection can drive the repeated evolution of reproductive isolation, but the genomic basis of parallel speciation remains poorly understood. We analyzed whole-genome divergence between replicate pairs of stick insect populations that are adapted to different host plants and undergoing parallel speciation. We found thousands of modest-sized genomic regions of accentuated divergence between populations, most of which are unique to individual population pairs. We also detected parallel genomic divergence across population pairs involving an excess of coding genes with specific molecular functions. Regions of parallel genomic divergence in nature exhibited exceptional allele frequency changes between hosts in a field transplant experiment. The results advance understanding of biological diversification by providing convergent observational and experimental evidence for selection's role in driving repeatable genomic divergence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A major unresolved issue in biology is why phenotypic and genetic variation is sometimes continuous, yet other times packaged into discrete units of diversity, such as morphs, ecotypes, and species. In theory, ecological discontinuities can impose strong disruptive selection that promotes the evolution of discrete forms, but direct tests of this hypothesis are lacking. Here, we show that Timema stick insects exhibit genetically determined color morphs that range from weakly to strongly discontinuous. Color data from nature and a manipulative field experiment demonstrate that greater morph differentiation is associated with shifts from host plants exhibiting more continuous color variation to those exhibiting greater coloration distance between green leaves and brown stems, the latter of which generates strong disruptive selection. Our results show how ecological factors can promote discrete variation, and we further present results on how this can have variable effects on the genetic differentiation that promotes speciation.