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Climate change is commonly assumed to induce species' range shifts toward the poles. Yet, other environmental changes may affect the geographical distribution of species in unexpected ways. Here, we quantify multidecadal shifts in the distribution of European forest plants and link these shifts to key drivers of forest biodiversity change: climate change, atmospheric deposition (nitrogen and sulfur), and forest canopy dynamics. Surprisingly, westward distribution shifts were 2.6 times more likely than northward ones. Not climate change, but nitrogen-mediated colonization events, possibly facilitated by the recovery from past acidifying deposition, best explain westward movements. Biodiversity redistribution patterns appear complex and are more likely driven by the interplay among several environmental changes than due to the exclusive effects of climate change alone.

Schall and Heinrichs question our interpretation that the climatic debt in understory plant communities is locally modulated by canopy buffering. However, our results clearly show that the discrepancy between microclimate warming rates and thermophilization rates is highest in forests where canopy cover was reduced, which suggests that the need for communities to respond to warming is highest in those forests., (Copyright © 2020, American Association for the Advancement of Science.)

Bertrand et al question our interpretation about warming effects on the thermophilization in forest plant communities and propose an alternative way to analyze climatic debt. We show that microclimate warming is a better predictor than macroclimate warming for studying forest plant community responses to warming. Their additional analyses do not affect or change our interpretations and conclusions., (Copyright © 2020, American Association for the Advancement of Science.)

Climate warming is causing a shift in biological communities in favor of warm-affinity species (i.e., thermophilization). Species responses often lag behind climate warming, but the reasons for such lags remain largely unknown. Here, we analyzed multidecadal understory microclimate dynamics in European forests and show that thermophilization and the climatic lag in forest plant communities are primarily controlled by microclimate. Increasing tree canopy cover reduces warming rates inside forests, but loss of canopy cover leads to increased local heat that exacerbates the disequilibrium between community responses and climate change. Reciprocal effects between plants and microclimates are key to understanding the response of forest biodiversity and functioning to climate and land-use changes., (Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.)