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Geoenergy and geoengineering applications usually involve fluid injection into and production from fractured media. Accounting for fractures is important because of the strong poromechanical coupling that ties pore pressure changes and deformation. A possible approach to the problem uses equivalent porous media to reduce the computational cost and model complexity instead of explicitly including fractures in the models. We investigate the validity of this simplification by comparing these two approaches. Simulation results show that pore pressure distribution significantly differs between the two approaches even when both are calibrated to predict identical values at the injection and production wells. Additionally, changes in fracture stability are not well captured with the equivalent porous medium. We conclude that explicitly accounting for fractures in numerical models may be necessary under some circumstances to perform reliable coupled thermohydromechanical simulations, which could be used in conjunction with other tools for induced seismicity forecasting., A.Z. acknowledges the financial support received from the “Iran's Ministry of Science, Research and Technology” (PhD students' sabbatical grants) for visiting IDAEA‐CSIC. The contribution of F.P. is funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation)—project number PA 3451/1‐1. R.M. is thankful for the support from US DOE through Carbon SAFE Macon County Project DE‐FE0029381. V.V. acknowledges funding from the Spanish National Research Council (CSIC) through the Intramural project 201730I100 and from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program through the Starting Grant GEoREST (www.georest.eu) (Grant agreement No. 801809). IDAEA‐CSIC is a Center of Excellence Severo Ochoa (Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, Project CEX2018‐000794‐S). The authors declare no conflict of interest.

The North Atlantic warming hole (NAWH) is referred to as a reduced warming, or even cooling, of the North Atlantic during an anthropogenic‐driven global warming. A NAWH is predicted by climate models during the 21st century, and its pattern is already emerging in observations. Despite the known key role of the North Atlantic surface temperatures in setting the Northern Hemisphere climate, the mechanisms behind the NAWH are still not fully understood. Using state‐of‐the‐art climate models, we show that anthropogenic aerosol forcing opposes the formation of the NAWH (by leading to a local warming) and delays its emergence by about 30 years. In agreement with previous studies, we also demonstrate that the relative warming of the North Atlantic under aerosol forcing is due to changes in ocean heat fluxes, rather than air‐sea fluxes. These results suggest that the predicted reduction in aerosol forcing during the 21st century may accelerate the formation of the NAWH., Key Points Using CMIP6 and CESM‐LE simulations, we show that aerosol forcing generates a global cooling trend with a warming in the North AtlanticThis trend opposes the North Atlantic warming hole trend due to greenhouse gasesAerosol forcing delays the formation of the North Atlantic warming hole by about 30 years

The H1N1 “Spanish influenza” pandemic of 1918–1919 caused the highest known number of deaths recorded for a single pandemic in human history. Several theories have been offered to explain the virulence and spread of the disease, but the environmental context remains underexamined. In this study, we present a new environmental record from a European, Alpine ice core, showing a significant climate anomaly that affected the continent from 1914 to 1919. Incessant torrential rain and declining temperatures increased casualties in the battlefields of World War I (WWI), setting the stage for the spread of the pandemic at the end of the conflict. Multiple independent records of temperature, precipitation, and mortality corroborate these findings., Key Points Novel, high‐resolution climate record from Europe shows strong influx of marine air in a 1914–1918 climate anomaly unmatched in 100 yearsIndependent precipitation, temperature, and historical records corroborate the timing and extent of the anomalyHistorical and epidemiological records indicate that this climate anomaly affected the mortality in WWI as well as the “Spanish flu” pandemic

Quantifying the efficacy of different climate forcings is important for understanding the real‐world climate sensitivity. This study presents a systematic multimodel analysis of different climate driver efficacies using simulations from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). Efficacies calculated from instantaneous radiative forcing deviate considerably from unity across forcing agents and models. Effective radiative forcing (ERF) is a better predictor of global mean near‐surface air temperature (GSAT) change. Efficacies are closest to one when ERF is computed using fixed sea surface temperature experiments and adjusted for land surface temperature changes using radiative kernels. Multimodel mean efficacies based on ERF are close to one for global perturbations of methane, sulfate, black carbon, and insolation, but there is notable intermodel spread. We do not find robust evidence that the geographic location of sulfate aerosol affects its efficacy. GSAT is found to respond more slowly to aerosol forcing than CO2 in the early stages of simulations. Despite these differences, we find that there is no evidence for an efficacy effect on historical GSAT trend estimates based on simulations with an impulse response model, nor on the resulting estimates of climate sensitivity derived from the historical period. However, the considerable intermodel spread in the computed efficacies means that we cannot rule out an efficacy‐induced bias of ±0.4 K in equilibrium climate sensitivity to CO2 doubling when estimated using the historical GSAT trend., Key Points Multimodel mean efficacies computed using effective radiative forcing are close to one for major anthropogenic drivers, but there is notable intermodel spreadSurface temperature‐driven radiative feedbacks are generally not constant through time across forcing experimentsPDRMIP results suggest that the efficacy impact on equilibrium climate sensitivity derived from the historical period is limited to ±0.4 °C or better

Soil moisture‐precipitation feedbacks in a large ensemble of global climate model simulations are evaluated. A set of three metrics are used to assess the sensitivity of afternoon rainfall occurrence to morning soil moisture in terms of their spatial, temporal, and heterogeneity characteristics. Positive (negative) spatial feedback indicates that the afternoon rainfall occurs more frequently over wetter (drier) land surface than its surroundings. Positive (negative) temporal feedback indicates preference over temporally wetter (drier) conditions, and positive (negative) heterogeneity feedback indicates preference over more spatially heterogeneous (homogeneous) soil moisture conditions. We confirm previous results highlighting a dominantly positive spatial feedback in the models as opposed to observations. On average, models tend to agree better with observations for temporal and heterogeneity feedback characteristics, although intermodel variability is largest for these metrics. The collective influence of the three feedbacks suggests that they may lead to more localized precipitation persistence in models than in observations., Key Points Climate models simulate strong positive spatial soil moisture‐precipitation (SMP) feedback as opposed to observationsIntermodel variability in temporal and heterogeneity characteristics of SMP feedback metrics is largeSMP feedback biases in models might contribute to longer localized daily precipitation persistence than in observations

This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution‐NonCommercial‐NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non‐commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made., The spatial nonuniformity of the electric field in air discharges, such as streamers, can influence the accuracy of spectroscopic diagnostic methods and hence the estimation of the peak electric field. In this work, we use a self-consistent streamer discharge model to investigate the spatial nonuniformity in streamer heads and streamer glows. We focus our analysis on air discharges at atmospheric pressure and at the low pressure of the mesosphere. This approach is useful to investigate the spatial nonuniformity of laboratory discharges as well as sprite streamers and blue jet streamers, two types of transient luminous events taking place above thunderclouds. This characterization of the spatial nonuniformity of the electric field in air discharges allows us to develop two different spectroscopic diagnostic methods to estimate the peak electric field in cold plasmas. The commonly employed method to derive the peak electric field in streamer heads underestimates the electric field by about 40–50% as a consequence of the high spatial nonuniformity of the electric field. Our diagnostic methods reduce this underestimation to about 10–20%. However, our methods are less accurate than previous methods for streamer glows, where the electric field is uniformly distributed in space. Finally, we apply our diagnostic methods to the measured optical signals in the second positive system of N2 and the first negative system of N+ 2 of sprites recorded by Armstrong et al. (1998, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1364-6826(98)00026-1) during the SPRITE's 1995 and 1996 campaigns. ©2019. The Authors., This work was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, MINECO under project ESP2017-86263-C4-4-R and by the EU through the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's H2020 programm/ERC grant agreement 681257. This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement SAINT 722337. The authors acknowledge financial support from the State Agency for Research of the Spanish MCIU through the "Center of Excellence Severo Ochoa" award for the Instituto de Astrofisica de Andalucia (SEV-2017-0709). F. J. P. I. acknowledges a PhD research contract, code BES-2014-069567

Large‐scale weather forecasting and climate models are beginning to reach horizontal resolutions of kilometers, at which common assumptions made in existing parameterization schemes of subgrid‐scale turbulence and convection—such as that they adjust instantaneously to changes in resolved‐scale dynamics—cease to be justifiable. Additionally, the common practice of representing boundary‐layer turbulence, shallow convection, and deep convection by discontinuously different parameterizations schemes, each with its own set of parameters, has contributed to the proliferation of adjustable parameters in large‐scale models. Here we lay the theoretical foundations for an extended eddy‐diffusivity mass‐flux (EDMF) scheme that has explicit time‐dependence and memory of subgrid‐scale variables and is designed to represent all subgrid‐scale turbulence and convection, from boundary layer dynamics to deep convection, in a unified manner. Coherent up and downdrafts in the scheme are represented as prognostic plumes that interact with their environment and potentially with each other through entrainment and detrainment. The more isotropic turbulence in their environment is represented through diffusive fluxes, with diffusivities obtained from a turbulence kinetic energy budget that consistently partitions turbulence kinetic energy between plumes and environment. The cross‐sectional area of up and downdrafts satisfies a prognostic continuity equation, which allows the plumes to cover variable and arbitrarily large fractions of a large‐scale grid box and to have life cycles governed by their own internal dynamics. Relatively simple preliminary proposals for closure parameters are presented and are shown to lead to a successful simulation of shallow convection, including a time‐dependent life cycle., Key Points An extended eddy‐diffusivity mass‐flux (EDMF) scheme is presented that is prognostic and has variable plume area fractionsThe new EDMF scheme consistently partitions flow variables (including turbulence kinetic energy) between plumes and the environmentIn first tests, it successfully reproduces the average condition and transient life cycles of shallow convection

Land Surface Models (LSMs) are essential to reproduce biophysical processes modulated by vegetation and to predict the future evolution of the land‐climate system. To assess the performance of an ensemble of LSMs (JSBACH, JULES, ORCHIDEE, CLM, and LPJ‐GUESS) a consistent set of land surface energy fluxes and leaf area index (LAI) has been generated. Relationships of interannual variations of modeled surface fluxes and LAI changes have been analyzed at global scale across climatological gradients and compared with those obtained from satellite‐based products. Model‐specific strengths and deficiencies were diagnosed for tree and grass biomes. Results show that the responses of grasses are generally well represented in models with respect to the observed interplay between turbulent fluxes and LAI, increasing the confidence on how the LAI‐dependent partition of net radiation into latent and sensible heat are simulated. On the contrary, modeled forest responses are characterized by systematic bias in the relation between the year‐to‐year variability in LAI and net radiation in cold and temperate climates, ultimately affecting the amount of absorbed radiation due to LAI‐related effects on surface albedo. In addition, for tree biomes, the relationships between LAI and turbulent fluxes appear to contradict the experimental evidences. The dominance of the transpiration‐driven over the observed albedo‐driven effects might suggest that LSMs have the incorrect balance of these two processes. Such mismatches shed light on the limitations of our current understanding and process representation of the vegetation control on the surface energy balance and help to identify critical areas for model improvement., Key Points The covariability of land biophysics and changes in vegetation density predicted by Land Surface Models is compared with satellite dataBiophysical properties of vegetation are explored across climatological gradients of temperature and precipitationModel‐specific and systematic strengths and deficiencies are diagnosed separately for tree and grass biomes

Previous single‐model experiments have found that Arctic sea ice loss can influence the atmospheric circulation. To evaluate this process in a multimodel ensemble, a novel methodology is here presented and applied to infer the influence of Arctic sea ice loss in the CMIP5 future projections. Sea ice influence is estimated by comparing the circulation response in the RCP8.5 scenario against the circulation response to sea surface warming and CO2 increase inferred from the AMIPFuture and AMIP4xCO2 experiments, where sea ice is unperturbed. Multimodel evidence of the impact of sea ice loss on midlatitude atmospheric circulation is identified in late winter (January–March), when the sea ice‐related surface heat flux perturbation is largest. Sea ice loss acts to suppress the projected poleward shift of the North Atlantic jet, to increase surface pressure in northern Siberia, and to lower it in North America. These features are consistent with previous single‐model studies, and the present results indicate that they are robust to model formulation., Key Points Multimodel evidence shows that future projections of atmospheric circulation change are influenced by Arctic sea ice lossThe impact of Arctic sea ice loss on large‐scale atmospheric circulation is mainly confined to late winterThe poleward shift of the North Atlantic jet with global warming is suppressed in late winter by Arctic sea ice loss

LOFAR (LOw Frequency ARray) is a radio telescope that consists of a large number of dual-polarized antennas spread over the northern Netherlands and beyond. The LOFAR for Lightning Imaging project (LOFAR-LIM) has successfully used LOFAR to map out lightning in the Netherlands. Since LOFAR covers a large frequency range (10-90 MHz), has antennas spread over a large area, and saves the raw trace data from the antennas, LOFAR-LIM can combine all the strongest aspects of both lightning mapping arrays and lightning interferometers. These aspects include a nanosecond resolution between pulses, nanosecond timing accuracy, and an ability to map lightning in all 3 spatial dimensions and time. LOFAR should be able to map out overhead lightning with a spatial accuracy on the order of meters. The large amount of complex data provide by LOFAR has presented new data processing challenges, such as handling the time offsets between stations with large baselines and locating as many sources as possible. New algorithms to handle these challenges have been developed and will be discussed. Since the antennas are dual-polarized, all three components of the electric field can be extracted and the structure of the R.F. pulses can be investigated at a large number of distances and angles relative to the lightning source, potentially allowing for modeling of lightning current distributions relevant to the 10 to 90 MHz frequency range. R.F. pulses due to leader propagation will be presented, which show a complex sub-structure, indicating intricate physics that could potentially be reconstructed.

We report on a novel non-intrusive way to investigate electric fields in thunderclouds.Energetic cosmic rays penetrating the atmosphere create a particle avalanche called an extensive air shower. The front of the shower is a plasma cloud that contains 10^6 or more free electrons and positrons moving towards the Earth's surface at the speed of light. The electric fields that exists in thunderclouds induces electric currents in the plasma cloud that emit radio waves. The radio footprint for intensity, linear and circular polarization thus contains the finger print of the atmospheric electric fields along the path of the air shower.Here we report on the analysis of many cosmic-ray radio footprints as have been measured at LOFAR, a dense array of simple radio antennas (several thousands of dual-polarized antennas) primarily developed for radio-astronomy observations. We show that this method can be used to determine the charge structure in thunderclouds and discuss the accuracy of the method. We have observed seasonal dependencies.

Data assimilation (DA) is used extensively in numerical weather prediction (NWP) to improve forecast skill. Indeed, improvements in forecast skill in NWP models over the past 30 years have directly coincided with improvements in DA schemes. At present, due to data availability and technical challenges, DA is underused in space weather applications, particularly for solar wind prediction. This paper investigates the potential of advanced DA methods currently used in operational NWP centers to improve solar wind prediction. To develop the technical capability, as well as quantify the potential benefit, twin experiments are conducted to assess the performance of the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) in the solar wind model ENLIL. Boundary conditions are provided by the Wang‐Sheeley‐Arge coronal model and synthetic observations of density, temperature, and momentum generated every 4.5 h at 0.6 AU. While in situ spacecraft observations are unlikely to be routinely available at 0.6 AU, these techniques can be applied to remote sensing of the solar wind, such as with Heliospheric Imagers or interplanetary scintillation. The LETKF can be seen to improve the state at the observation location and advect that improvement toward the Earth, leading to an improvement in forecast skill in near‐Earth space for both the observed and unobserved variables. However, sharp gradients caused by the analysis of a single observation in space resulted in artificial wavelike structures being advected toward Earth. This paper is the first attempt to apply DA to solar wind prediction and provides the first in‐depth analysis of the challenges and potential solutions., Key Points The paper describes the first data assimilation (DA) experiments with a solar wind modelThese experiments show that DA can improve forecasts of nonmagnetic variables near the observation, which are advected by the solar windWe discuss challenges and obstacles inherent to DA in the solar wind and propose potential solutions as directions for future research

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean is of key importance to global climate and weather. However, state‐of‐the‐art climate models still disagree on the ENSO's response under climate change. The potential role of atmospheric ozone changes in this context has not been explored before. Here we show that differences between typical model representations of ozone can have a first‐order impact on ENSO amplitude projections in climate sensitivity simulations. The vertical temperature gradient of the tropical middle‐to‐upper troposphere adjusts to ozone changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, modifying the Walker circulation and consequently tropical Pacific surface temperature gradients. We show that neglecting ozone changes thus results in a significant increase in the number of extreme ENSO events in our model. Climate modeling studies of the ENSO often neglect changes in ozone. We therefore highlight the need to understand better the coupling between ozone, the tropospheric circulation, and climate variability., Key Points The representation of ozone in climate change simulations can lead to major differences in projected ENSO amplitudesMechanistically, this effect is directly related to an ozone‐induced damping of the Walker circulation response to CO2 forcingENSO modeling studies with climatologically inconsistent ozone might be missing an important mechanism

We present a full electromagnetic model of streamer propagation where the Maxwell equations are solved self-consistently together with electron transport and reactions including photoionization. We apply this model to the collision of counter-propagating streamers in gaps tens of centimeters wide and with large potential differences of hundreds of kilovolts. Our results show that streamer collisions emit electromagnetic pulses that, at atmospheric pressure, dominate the radio frequency spectrum of an extended corona in the range from about 100 MHz to a few gigahertz. We also investigate the fast penetration, after a collision, of electromagnetic fields into the streamer heads and show that these fields are capable of accelerating electrons up to about 100 keV. By substantiating the link between X-rays and high-frequency radio emissions and by describing a mechanism for the early acceleration of runaway electrons, our results support the hypothesis that streamer collisions are essential precursors of high-energy processes in electric discharges., This work was supported by the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union H2020 programme/ERC grant agreement 681257 and by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, MINECO under projects FIS2014-61774-EXP and ESP2015-69909-C5-2-R.

Energetic cosmic rays impinging on the atmosphere create a particle avalanche called an extensive air shower. In the leading plasma of this shower electric currents are induced that generate radio waves which have been detected with LOFAR, a large and dense array of simple antennas primarily developed for radio-astronomy observations.LOFAR has observed air showers under fair-weather conditions as well as under atmospheric conditions where thunderstorms occur. For air showers under fair-weather conditions the intensity as well as the polarization of the radio emission can be understood rather accurately from the present models.For air showers measured under thunderstorm conditions we observe large differences in the intensity and polarization patterns from the fair weather models. We will show that the linear as well as the circular polarization of the radio waves carry clear information on the orientation of the electric fields at different heights in the thunderstorm clouds. We will show for the first time that the circular polarization of the radio waves tells about the change of orientation of the fields with altitude. We will show that from the measured data at LOFAR the thunderstorm electric fields can be reconstructed.We thus have established the measurement of radio emission from extensive air showers induced by cosmic rays as a new tool to probe the atmospheric electric fields present in thunderclouds in a non-intrusive way.

As is well known a sufficient density of free electrons and strong electric fields are the basic requirements to start any electrical discharge. In the context of thunderstorm discharges it has become clear that in addition droplets and or ice particles are required to enhance the electric field to values above breakdown. In our recent study [1] we have shown that these three ingredients have to interplay to allow for lightning inception, triggered by an extensive air shower event. The extensive air showers are a very stochastic natural phenomenon, creating highly coherent sub-nanosecond enhancements of the atmospheric electron density. Predicting these electron density enhancements accurately one has to take the uncertainty of the input variables into account. For this study we use the initial energy, inclination and altitude of first interaction, which will influence the evolution of the shower significantly. To this end, we use the stochastic collocation method, [2] to post-process our detailed Monte Carlo extensive air shower simulations, done with the CORSIKA [3] software package, which provides an efficient and elegant way to determine the distribution of the atmospheric electron density enhancements. [1] Dubinova, A., Rutjes, C., Ebert, E., Buitink, S., Scholten, O., and Trinh, G. T. N. "Prediction of Lightning Inception by Large Ice Particles and Extensive Air Showers." PRL 115 015002 (2015)[2] G.J.A. Loeven, J.A.S. Witteveen, H. Bijl, Probabilistic collocation: an efficient nonintrusive approach for arbitrarily distributed parametric uncertainties, 45th AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting, Reno, Nevada, 2007, AIAA-2007-317[3] Heck, Dieter, et al. CORSIKA: A Monte Carlo code to simulate extensive air showers. No. FZKA-6019. 1998.

It has been suggested that the Sun may evolve into a period of lower activity over the 21st century. This study examines the potential climate impacts of the onset of an extreme “Maunder Minimum‐like” grand solar minimum using a comprehensive global climate model. Over the second half of the 21st century, the scenario assumes a decrease in total solar irradiance of 0.12% compared to a reference Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 experiment. The decrease in solar irradiance cools the stratopause (∼1 hPa) in the annual and global mean by 1.2 K. The impact on global mean near‐surface temperature is small (∼−0.1 K), but larger changes in regional climate occur during the stratospheric dynamically active seasons. In Northern Hemisphere wintertime, there is a weakening of the stratospheric westerly jet by up to ∼3–4 m s−1, with the largest changes occurring in January–February. This is accompanied by a deepening of the Aleutian Low at the surface and an increase in blocking over Northern Europe and the North Pacific. There is also an equatorward shift in the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude eddy‐driven jet in austral spring. The occurrence of an amplified regional response during winter and spring suggests a contribution from a top‐down pathway for solar‐climate coupling; this is tested using an experiment in which ultraviolet (200–320 nm) radiation is decreased in isolation of other changes. The results show that a large decline in solar activity over the 21st century could have important impacts on the stratosphere and regional surface climate., Key Points A future decline in solar activity would not offset projected global warmingA future decline in solar activity could have larger regional effects in winterTop‐down mechanism contributes to Northern Hemisphere regional response

Major stratospheric sudden warmings (SSW) occurring during Northern Hemisphere winter were identified in four runs of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). Their characteristics are compared to those found by other authors using reanalysis data. The comparison shows that the frequency of occurrence of major SSW in the model is very similar to that found in reanalysis data, as is the occurrence of vortex splitting and displacement events. The main difference with respect to observations is that the modeled SSW are relatively longer lasting. WACCM simulates quite accurately some dynamical features associated with major SSW, despite the presence of outlier cases; however, the recently reported relationship between regional blocking and the type of SSW is only partially reproduced by WACCM. In general, the observed climatological and dynamical signatures of displacement SSW tend to be better reproduced by the model than those associated with splitting SSW. We also find that SSW in the model are often associated with an elevated polar cap stratopause, in agreement with recent observations. However, the simulations also show that there is not in general a close correspondence between major SSW and elevated polar cap stratopause events.

This work investigates the internal variability of zonal-mean baroclinicity over the Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes. The first two leading modes describe a meridional baroclinicity shift and a sharpening/broadening of baroclinicity, with the shift becoming more dominant at low frequency. The lifecycles of the baroclinic anomalies, estimated by means of lagged regression analysis, are qualitatively different depending on the frequency range. At high frequency, the zonal-mean baroclinicity simply responds to the fast eddy heat flux forcing. At low frequency, the baroclinicity shift is forced by the eddy momentum flux through an eddy driven mean meridional circulation and damped diabatically. The meridional eddy heat flux by planetary scale eddies also contributes to the low-frequency shift but the synoptic eddy heat flux behaves diffusively and damps the baroclinicity anomalies at low frequency.

A new climate simulation for the middle Pliocene (ca. 3 Ma BP) is performed by a global grid-point atmospheric general circulation model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP AGCM) with boundary conditions provided by the U. S. Geological Survey's Pliocene Research, Interpretations, and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) group. It follows that warmer and slightly wetter conditions dominated at the middle Pliocene with a globally annual mean surface temperature increase of 2.60°C, and an increase in precipitation of 4.0% relative to today. At the middle Pliocene, globally annual terrestrial warming was 1.86°C, with stronger warming toward high latitudes. Annual precipitation enhanced notably at high latitudes, with the augment reaching 33.5% (32.5%) of the present value at 60–90°N (60–90°S). On the contrary, drier conditions were registered over most parts at 0–30°N, especially in much of East Asia and the northern tropical Pacific. In addition, both boreal summer and winter monsoon significantly decreased in East Asia at the middle Pliocene. It is indicated that the IAP AGCM simulation is generally consistent with the results from other atmospheric models and agrees well with available paleoclimatic reconstructions in East Asia. Additionally, it is further revealed that the PRISM warmer sea surface temperature and reduced sea ice extent are main factors determining the middle Pliocene climate. The simulated climatic responses arising from the PRISM reconstructed vegetation and continental ice sheet cannot be neglected on a regional scale at mid to high latitudes (like over Greenland and the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, and around the circum-Antarctic) but have little influence on global climate.

Shipboard radiosonde surveys were conducted during the 2003-04 winter east of Japan to study atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) structure over the Kuroshio Extension. ABL displayed large variations in vertical structure, most of which are attributable to changes in atmospheric surface stability. Where the surface atmosphere was unstable (neutral) as measured by the sea-air temperature difference, surface turbulent heat flux increased (decreased) and a mixed-layer developed (undeveloped) with weakened (intensified) vertical wind shear. A linear regression analysis indicates that ABL height tends to increase by 1km as the sea-air temperature difference increases by 7°C or surface turbulent heat flux by 500 Wm−2. While meridional thermal advection by weather disturbances seems to cause much of atmospheric stability variability during the 43-day surveys, the strong sensitivity of vertical mixing and wind shear to stability is consistent with the observed in-phase co-variability of SST and surface wind from satellite on monthly and longer timescales.

Using infrared satellite imagery, best-track data, and reanalysis data, tropical cyclones are shown to contain a disproportionate amount of the deepest convection in the tropics. Although tropical cyclones account for only 7% of the deep convection in the tropics, they account for about 15% of the deep convection with cloud-top temperatures below the monthly averaged tropopause temperature and 29% of the clouds that attain a cloud-top temperature 15 K below the temperature of the tropopause. This suggests that tropical cyclones could play an important role in setting the humidity of the stratosphere., Earth and Planetary Sciences