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Human activity has led to increased atmospheric concentrations of many gases, including halocarbons, and may lead to emissions of many more gases. Many of these gases are, on a per molecule basis, powerful greenhouse gases, although at present‐day concentrations their climate effect is in the so‐called weak limit (i.e., their effect scales linearly with concentration). We published a comprehensive review of the radiative efficiencies (RE) and global warming potentials (GWP) for around 200 such compounds in 2013 (Hodnebrog et al., 2013, https://doi.org/10.1002/rog.20013). Here we present updated RE and GWP values for compounds where experimental infrared absorption spectra are available. Updated numbers are based on a revised “Pinnock curve”, which gives RE as a function of wave number, and now also accounts for stratospheric temperature adjustment (Shine & Myhre, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001951). Further updates include the implementation of around 500 absorption spectra additional to those in the 2013 review and new atmospheric lifetimes from the literature (mainly from WMO (2019)). In total, values for 60 of the compounds previously assessed are based on additional absorption spectra, and 42 compounds have REs which differ by >10% from our previous assessment. New RE calculations are presented for more than 400 compounds in addition to the previously assessed compounds, and GWP calculations are presented for a total of around 250 compounds. Present‐day radiative forcing due to halocarbons and other weak absorbers is 0.38 [0.33–0.43] W m−2, compared to 0.36 [0.32–0.40] W m−2 in IPCC AR5 (Myhre et al., 2013, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.018), which is about 18% of the current CO2 forcing., Key Points Radiative efficiencies are reassessed for more than 600 compounds and global warming potentials calculated for around 250 of theseForty‐two compounds have >10% different radiative efficiency compared to a comprehensive review in 2013Present‐day radiative forcing due to halocarbons and other weak absorbers is 0.38 [0.33–0.43] W m−2, which is ~18% of the CO2 forcing

Predicting the surface albedo of a forest of a given species composition or plant functional type is complicated by the wide range of structural attributes it may display. Accurate characterizations of forest structure are therefore essential to reducing the uncertainty of albedo predictions in forests, particularly in the presence of snow. At present, forest albedo parameterizations remain a nonnegligible source of uncertainty in climate models, and the magnitude attributable to insufficient characterization of forest structure remains unclear. Here we employ a forest classification scheme based on the assimilation of Fennoscandic (i.e., Norway, Sweden, and Finland) national forest inventory data to quantify the magnitude of the albedo prediction error attributable to poor characterizations of forest structure. For a spatial domain spanning ~611,000 km2 of boreal forest, we find a mean absolute wintertime (December–March) albedo prediction error of 0.02, corresponding to a mean absolute radiative forcing ~0.4 W/m2. Further, we evaluate the implication of excluding albedo trajectories linked to structural transitions in forests during transient simulations of anthropogenic land use/land cover change. We find that, for an intensively managed forestry region in southeastern Norway, neglecting structural transitions over the next quarter century results in a foregone (undetected) radiatively equivalent impact of ~178 Mt‐CO2‐eq. year−1 on average during this period—a magnitude that is roughly comparable to the annual greenhouse gas emissions of a country such as The Netherlands. Our results affirm the importance of improving the characterization of forest structure when simulating surface albedo and associated climate effects.

The ability of 11 models in simulating the aerosol vertical distribution from regional to global scales, as part of the second phase of the AeroCom model intercomparison initiative (AeroCom II), is assessed and compared to results of the first phase. The evaluation is performed using a global monthly gridded data set of aerosol extinction profiles built for this purpose from the CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) Layer Product 3.01. Results over 12 subcontinental regions show that five models improved, whereas three degraded in reproducing the interregional variability in Zα0–6 km, the mean extinction height diagnostic, as computed from the CALIOP aerosol profiles over the 0–6 km altitude range for each studied region and season. While the models' performance remains highly variable, the simulation of the timing of the Zα0–6 km peak season has also improved for all but two models from AeroCom Phase I to Phase II. The biases in Zα0–6 km are smaller in all regions except Central Atlantic, East Asia, and North and South Africa. Most of the models now underestimate Zα0–6 km over land, notably in the dust and biomass burning regions in Asia and Africa. At global scale, the AeroCom II models better reproduce the Zα0–6 km latitudinal variability over ocean than over land. Hypotheses for the performance and evolution of the individual models and for the intermodel diversity are discussed. We also provide an analysis of the CALIOP limitations and uncertainties contributing to the differences between the simulations and observations.

We find that summer methane (CH4) release from seabed sediments west of Svalbard substantially increases CH4 concentrations in the ocean but has limited influence on the atmospheric CH4 levels. Our conclusion stems from complementary measurements at the seafloor, in the ocean, and in the atmosphere from land-based, ship and aircraft platforms during a summer campaign in 2014. We detected high concentrations of dissolved CH4 in the ocean above the seafloor with a sharp decrease above the pycnocline. Model approaches taking potential CH4 emissions from both dissolved and bubble-released CH4 from a larger region into account reveal a maximum flux compatible with the observed atmospheric CH4 mixing ratios of 2.4–3.8 nmol m−2 s−1. This is too low to have an impact on the atmospheric summer CH4 budget in the year 2014. Long-term ocean observatories may shed light on the complex variations of Arctic CH4 cycles throughout the year.

Aerosol properties above clouds have been retrieved over the South East Atlantic Ocean during the fire season 2006 using satellite observations from POLDER (Polarization and Directionality of Earth Reflectances). From June to October, POLDER has observed a mean Above-Cloud Aerosol Optical Thickness (ACAOT) of 0.28 and a mean Above-Clouds Single Scattering Albedo (ACSSA) of 0.87 at 550 nm. These results have been used to evaluate the simulation of aerosols above clouds in five Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART), Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model 3 (HadGEM3), European Centre Hamburg Model 5-Hamburg Aerosol Module 2 (ECHAM5-HAM2), Oslo-Chemical Transport Model 2 (OsloCTM2), and Spectral Radiation-Transport Model for Aerosol Species (SPRINTARS)). Most models do not reproduce the observed large aerosol load episodes. The comparison highlights the importance of the injection height and the vertical transport parameterizations to simulate the large ACAOT observed by POLDER. Furthermore, POLDER ACSSA is best reproduced by models with a high imaginary part of black carbon refractive index, in accordance with recent recommendations.

The climate response to the presence of black carbon (BC) aerosol at a given altitude in the atmosphere is investigated using a global circulation model. The vertical dependence of the efficiency with which BC exerts radiative forcing (RF) through the direct aerosol effect has previously been extensively studied. Here we use the Community Atmosphere Model version 4 atmospheric component of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System model version 1.03 to calculate the three-dimensional response to a BC layer inserted at various altitudes. Simulations have been performed both for fixed sea surface temperatures and using a slab ocean setup to include the surface temperature response. We investigate the vertical profiles of RF exerted per gram of externally mixed BC due to both the direct and semidirect aerosol effects. Associated changes in cloud cover, relative humidity, and precipitation are discussed. The precipitation response to BC is decomposed into a fast, stability-related change and a slow, temperature-driven component. We find that while the efficiency of BC to exert positive RF due to the direct effect strengthens with altitude, as in previous studies, it is strongly offset by a negative semidirect effect. The net radiative perturbation of BC at top of atmosphere is found to be positive everywhere below the tropopause and negative above. The global, annual mean precipitation response to BC, after equilibration of a slab ocean, is found to be positive between the surface and 900 hPa but negative at all other altitudes.

[1] Tropospheric ozone is known to have a damaging effect on carbon uptake in the terrestrial biosphere. We show that limitations of available nitrogen for sufficient plant growth reduce the negative impact of tropospheric ozone on carbon uptake in plants, leading to a smaller indirect change in radiative forcing than previously calculated. Transient climate simulations between 1900 and 2004 where plant growth is affected by tropospheric ozone have been performed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Land Model with and without a coupling to the nitrogen cycle. When the land model includes nitrogen limitation on plant growth, the negative effect from tropospheric ozone on carbon uptake in plants is reduced by up to a factor of four compared to model simulation without nitrogen limitation. Only 2–5% of the radiative forcing from CO2 between 1900 and 2004 can be attributed to the indirect effect of tropospheric ozone which is a factor of six lower than results from previous studies.

[1] Changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols alter the atmospheric energy budget on different time scales and at different levels in the atmosphere. We study the relationship between global mean precipitation changes, radiative forcing, and surface temperature change since preindustrial times caused by several climate change components (CO2, CH4, sulphate and black carbon (BC) aerosols, and solar forcing) using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model (CESM1.03). We find a fast response in precipitation due to atmospheric instability that correlates with radiative forcing associated with atmospheric absorption and a slower response caused by changes in surface temperature which correlates with radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere. In general, global climate models show large differences in climate response to global warming, but here we find a strong relationship between global mean radiative forcing and global mean precipitation changes that is very consistent with other models, indicating that precipitation changes from a particular forcing mechanism are more robust than previously expected. In addition, we look at the precipitation response and relate it to changes in lifetime of atmospheric water vapor (τ). BC aerosols have a significantly larger impact on changes in τ related to surface temperature compared to greenhouse gases, sulphate aerosols, and solar forcing and are the dominating forcing mechanism affecting fast precipitation in this quantity.

The precipitation adjustment and feedback framework is a useful tool for understanding global and regional precipitation changes. However, there is no definitive method for making the decomposition. In this study we highlight important differences which arise in results due to methodological choices. The responses to five different forcing agents (CO2, CH4, SO4, black carbon, and solar insolation) are analyzed using global climate model simulations. Three decomposition methods are compared: using fixed sea surface temperature experiments (fSST), regressing transient climate change after an abrupt forcing (regression), and separating based on timescale using the first year of coupled simulations (YR1). The YR1 method is found to incorporate significant SST-driven feedbacks into the adjustment and is therefore not suitable for making the decomposition. Globally, the regression and fSST methods produce generally consistent results; however, the regression values are dependent on the number of years analyzed and have considerably larger uncertainties. Regionally, there are substantial differences between methods. The pattern of change calculated using regression reverses sign in many regions as the number of years analyzed increases. This makes it difficult to establish what effects are included in the decomposition. The fSST method provides a more clear-cut separation in terms of what physical drivers are included in each component. The fSST results are less affected by methodological choices and exhibit much less variability. We find that the precipitation adjustment is weakly affected by the choice of SST climatology.

We investigate the climate response to increased concentrations of black carbon (BC), as part of the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). A tenfold increase in BC is simulated by nine global coupled‐climate models, producing a model median effective radiative forcing of 0.82 (ranging from 0.41 to 2.91) W m⁻², and a warming of 0.67 (0.16 to 1.66) K globally and 1.24 (0.26 to 4.31) K in the Arctic. A strong positive instantaneous radiative forcing (median of 2.10 W m⁻² based on five of the models) is countered by negative rapid adjustments (−0.64 W m⁻² for the same five models), which dampen the total surface temperature signal. Unlike other drivers of climate change, the response of temperature and cloud profiles to the BC forcing is dominated by rapid adjustments. Low‐level cloud amounts increase for all models, while higher‐level clouds are diminished. The rapid temperature response is particularly strong above 400 hPa, where increased atmospheric stabilization and reduced cloud cover contrast the response pattern of the other drivers. In conclusion, we find that this substantial increase in BC concentrations does have considerable impacts on important aspects of the climate system. However, some of these effects tend to offset one another, leaving a relatively small median global warming of 0.47 K per W m⁻²—about 20% lower than the response to a doubling of CO₂. Translating the tenfold increase in BC to the present‐day impact of anthropogenic BC (given the emissions used in this work) would leave a warming of merely 0.07 K.

The usefulness of previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) exercises has been hampered by a lack of radiative forcing information. This has made it difficult to understand reasons for differences between model responses. Effective radiative forcing (ERF) is easier to diagnose than traditional radiative forcing in global climate models (GCMs) and is more representative of the eventual temperature response. Here we examine the different methods of computing ERF in two GCMs. We find that ERF computed from a fixed sea-surface temperature (SST) method (ERF_fSST) has much more certainty than regression based methods. Thirty-year integrations are sufficient to reduce the 5-95% confidence interval in global ERF_fSST to 0.1 W m-2. For 2xCO2 ERF, 30 year integrations are needed to ensure that the signal is larger than the local confidence interval over more than 90% of the globe. Within the ERF_fSST method there are various options for prescribing SSTs and sea-ice. We explore these and find that ERF is only weakly dependent on the methodological choices. Prescribing the monthly-averaged seasonally varying model’s preindustrial climatology is recommended for its smaller random error and easier implementation. As part of CMIP6, the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) asks models to conduct 30-year ERF_fSST experiments using the model’s own preindustrial climatology of SST and sea-ice. The Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) will also mainly use this approach. We propose this as a standard method for diagnosing ERF and recommend that it be used across the climate modelling community to aid future comparisons.

Global calculations of the radiative forcing due to contrails from aircraft are performed. A contrail distribution computed based on aviation fuel consumption and radiative transfer models for solar and thermal infrared radiation have been used. A substantially smaller net radiative forcing due to contrails (about 0.01 Wm -2 ) is estimated in comparison to former studies, emphasizing the strong sensitivity of this value to uncertainties in the longwave and shortwave contribution. The solar forcing is negative and the magnitude maximizes for high solar zenith angles. Altering the time for aircraft traffic has the potential for reducing the radiative forcing due to contrails, and under certain assumptions made in this paper giving a net zero forcing.

Radiative forcing calculations of changes in tropospheric ozone in the period 1980 to 1996 are performed. The tropospheric ozone changes used in this study are from a chemistry transport model [Karlsdottir et al., this issue]. For the radiative transfer calculations, schemes for thermal infrared radiation and shortwave radiation are used. Effects of reduced stratospheric ozone and emissions of tropospheric ozone precursors on the changes in tropospheric ozone are taken into account. Large positive radiative forcing is estimated over Southeast Asia, due to emissions of ozone precursors. Effects of decreased stratospheric ozone have reduced the radiative forcing due to change in tropospheric ozone from 1980 to 1996, particularly at high latitudes where the radiative forcing is negative.

During the last 20–30 years, noticeable changes have occurred in emissions related to anthropogenic activity over the globe. In this study a three-dimensional chemical transport model for the troposphere (the 3-D Oslo CTM1 model) is used to investigate how changes in the concentration of carbon monoxide (CO) and ozone (O3) in the period 1980–1996 can be related to changes in emission rates and patterns. The results indicate that changes in both species reflect the emission changes well, especially CO because it is to a large degree driven by CO emissions. The most pronounced effect of the changes in emissions for CO and O3 is seen in eastern Europe and Southeast Asia. The annual trend in CO and O3 concentrations in the planetary boundary layer during the period 1980–1996 in eastern Europe is −1.94±0.42 ppbv/yr and −0.01±0.02 ppbv/yr, respectively. In Southeast Asia a positive trend is seen, with 2.29±0.13 ppbv/yr in the CO concentration and 0.6 ± 0.03 ppbv/yr in the O3 concentration. The agreement between the modeled CO and O3 concentrations and observations is good. For O3 an improvement is gained in the modeled results compared with observations, by including changes in emissions from aircraft, and two effects of reduced stratospheric O3 level (altered photolysis rates and stratospheric-tropospheric exchange) during the period of study.

Emission trends of ozone precursors have been estimated on the basis of CO2 emissions from use of fossil fuels and cement production (with regional emission indices), biomass burning estimates, use of fertilizers, and aircraft emissions. “Timeslice” calculations of changes in tropospheric ozone for 1850, 1900, 1950, 1960, 1970, 1980, and 1990 have been performed with the University of Oslo global three-dimensional chemistry transport model (OsloCTM-1). For surface ozone the regions of maximum growth are found to have shifted during the period. Up to 1950 the largest increase is found over central United States (+25–30 ppbv), while for the 1950–1970 period it occurs over southeastern Europe and northeastern Asia (+15–20 ppbv). For the last period (1970 to 1990) most of the growth is found over Asia (over the Persian Gulf, India, and northern China) reaching 15 to 20 ppbv. During the period up to 1970 the changes in the tropospheric ozone column are found to be most profound at northern high and midlatitudes (about 80% of the increase before 1970), while the increase at lower latitudes is found to accelerate in the 1970s and 1980s (60% of the increase before 1970). Radiative transfer models for thermal infrared radiation and shortwave radiation are used to calculate the time evolution of the radiative forcing. In 1950 the radiative forcing due to increase in tropospheric ozone since preindustrial times was about 1/3 of the present radiative forcing due tropospheric ozone. The present radiative forcing due to increase in tropospheric ozone since preindustrial times is estimated to 0.34 W m−2. Significant regional differences in the evolution of the radiative forcing is found due to the differences in ozone trends. The tropospheric ozone results are available at http://www.geofysikk.uio.no/data/ozone/trend.

We have performed new calculations of the radiative forcing due to changes in the concentrations of the most important well mixed greenhouse gases (WMGG) since pre-industrial time. Three radiative transfer models are used. The radiative forcing due to CO2, including shortwave absorption, is 15% lower than the previous IPCC estimate. The radiative forcing due to all the WMGG is calculated to 2.25 Wm−2, which we estimate to be accurate to within about 5%. The importance of the CFCs is increased by about 20% relative to the total effect of all WMGG compared to previous estimates. We present updates to simple forcing-concentration relationships previously used by IPCC.

Tropospheric ozone changes since preindustrial times due to changes in emissions have been calculated by the University of Oslo global three-dimensional photochemical model. The radiative forcing caused by the increase in ozone has been calculated by two independent radiative transfer models; the University of Reading model (Reading), and the University of Oslo/Norwegian Institute for Air Research model (OsloRad). Significant increases in upper tropospheric ozone concentrations are found at northern midlatitudes (15–40 ppbv, depending on season) at about 10 km altitude. In the tropical regions the largest increase (about 20 ppbv for all seasons) is found at about 15 km altitude. The increase is found to be caused mainly by enhanced in situ production due to transport of precursors from the boundary layer, with a smaller contribution from increased transport of ozone produced in the boundary layer. The lifetime of ozone in the troposphere decreased by about 35% as a result of enhanced concentrations of HO2. The calculated increase in surface ozone in Europe is found to be in good agreement with observations. The calculations of radiative forcing include the effect of clouds and allow for thermal adjustment in the stratosphere. The global and annual averaged radiative forcing at the tropopause from both models (0.28 W m−2 and 0.31 W m−2, for the Reading and OsloRad models, respectively) are in the lower part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [1995] estimated range. The calculated radiative forcing is similar in magnitude to the negative radiative forcing by sulfate aerosols, but displaced southward in source regions at northern midlatitudes. The increase in tropospheric ozone is calculated to have cooled the lower stratosphere by up to 0.9 K, with possibly half of this cooling occurring in the past 2 to 3 decades.

We investigate the role of spatial and temporal resolution for estimation of radiative forcing due to SF6 and a range of halocarbons as well as CO2. A broadband model, which is used in the calculations, is described. Some comparative calculations have also been performed with a line-by-line model. The most detailed horizontal resolution used is 2.5°×2.5° in latitude and longitude. A variety of resolutions up to global averages are investigated. The effects of variations on diurnal, monthly, and seasonal scales are also studied. Spatial and temporal variation in the radiative forcing due to variations in temperature, humidity, and cloudiness has been taken into account on the basis of observed data. Inaccuracies due to temporal variations are small in all cases (up to about 1%). Deviations in forcings due to spatial averaging are also small (less than 1%) as long as latitudinal variations are resolved, but significant inaccuracies are introduced when global averaged conditions are assumed. The forcing due to CO2 responds somewhat differently to spatial averaging compared to SF6 and the halocarbons, so global warming potential (GWP) values for SF6 and halocarbons with CO2 as a reference gas are less accurate. Resolution of latitudinal variations in input parameters is shown to increase the accuracy of the GWP values for SF6 and the halocarbons. The choice of tropopause level, where radiative forcing is determined, is shown to be crucial, with differences up to 10% in the global average radiative forcing for different assumptions.

The CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) layer product is used for a multimodel evaluation of the vertical distribution of aerosols. Annual and seasonal aerosol extinction profiles are analyzed over 13 sub-continental regions representative of industrial, dust, and biomass burning pollution, from CALIOP 2007-2009 observations and from AeroCom (Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models) 2000 simulations. An extinction mean height diagnostic (Z-alpha) is defined to quantitatively assess the models' performance. It is calculated over the 0-6 km and 0-10 km altitude ranges by weighting the altitude of each 100 m altitude layer by its aerosol extinction coefficient. The mean extinction profiles derived from CALIOP layer products provide consistent regional and seasonal specificities and a low inter-annual variability. While the outputs from most models are significantly correlated with the observed Z-alpha climatologies, some do better than others, and 2 of the 12 models perform particularly well in all seasons. Over industrial and maritime regions, most models show higher Z-alpha than observed by CALIOP, whereas over the African and Chinese dust source regions, Z-alpha is underestimated during Northern Hemisphere Spring and Summer. The positive model bias in Z-alpha is mainly due to an overestimate of the extinction above 6 km. Potential CALIOP and model limitations, and methodological factors that might contribute to the differences are discussed.

[1] A global radiative transfer model is used to calculate the vertical profile of shortwave radiative forcing from a prescribed amount of aerosols. We study black carbon (BC), sulphate (SO4) and a black and organic carbon mixture typical of biomass burning (BIO), by prescribing aerosol burdens in layers between 1000 hPa and 20 hPa and calculating the resulting direct radiative forcing divided by the burden (NDRF). We find a strong sensitivity in the NDRF for BC with altitude, with a tenfold increase between BC close to the surface and the lower part of the stratosphere. Clouds are a major contributor to this dependence with altitude, but other factors also contribute. We break down and explain the different physical contributors to this strong sensitivity. The results show a modest regional dependence of the altitudinal dependence of BC NDRF between industrial regions, while for regions with properties deviating from the global mean NDRF variability is significant. Variations due to seasons and interannual changes in cloud conditions are found to be small. We explore the effect that large altitudinal variation in NDRF may have on model estimates of BC radiative forcing when vertical aerosol distributions are insufficiently constrained, and discuss possible applications of the present results for reducing inter-model differences.

This paper evaluates global mean radiatively important properties of chemistry climate models (CCMs). We evaluate stratospheric temperatures and their 1980�2000 trends, January clear sky irradiances, heating rates, and greenhouse gas radiative forcings from an offline comparison of CCM radiation codes with line�by�line models, and CCMs� representation of the solar cycle. CCM global mean temperatures and their change can give an indication of errors in radiative transfer codes and/or atmospheric composition. Biases in the global temperature climatology are generally small, although five out of 18 CCMs show biases in their climatology that likely indicate problems with their radiative transfer codes. Temperature trends also generally agree well with observations, although one model shows significant discrepancies that appear to be due to radiation errors. Heating rates and estimated temperature changes from CO2, ozone, and water vapor changes are generally well modeled. Other gases (N2O, CH4, and CFCs) have only played a minor role in stratospheric temperature change, but their heating rates have large fractional errors in many models. Models that do not account for variations in the spectrum of solar irradiance cannot properly simulate solar�induced variations in stratospheric temperature. The combined long�lived greenhouse gas global annual mean instantaneous net radiative forcing at the tropopause is within 30% of line�by�line models for all CCM radiation codes tested. Problems remain in simulating radiative forcing for stratospheric water vapor and ozone changes with errors between 3% and 200% compared to line by line models. The paper makes recommendations for CCM radiation code developers and future intercomparisons.

[1] The magnitude and feedbacks of future methane release from the Arctic region are unknown. Despite limited documentation of potential future releases associated with thawing permafrost and degassing methane hydrates, the large potential for future methane releases calls for improved understanding of the interaction of a changing climate with processes in the Arctic and chemical feedbacks in the atmosphere. Here we apply a “state of the art” atmospheric chemistry transport model to show that large emissions of CH4 would likely have an unexpectedly large impact on the chemical composition of the atmosphere and on radiative forcing (RF). The indirect contribution to RF of additional methane emission is particularly important. It is shown that if global methane emissions were to increase by factors of 2.5 and 5.2 above current emissions, the indirect contributions to RF would be about 250% and 400%, respectively, of the RF that can be attributed to directly emitted methane alone. Assuming several hypothetical scenarios of CH4 release associated with permafrost thaw, shallow marine hydrate degassing, and submarine landslides, we find a strong positive feedback on RF through atmospheric chemistry. In particular, the impact of CH4 is enhanced through increase of its lifetime, and of atmospheric abundances of ozone, stratospheric water vapor, and CO2 as a result of atmospheric chemical processes. Despite uncertainties in emission scenarios, our results provide a better understanding of the feedbacks in the atmospheric chemistry that would amplify climate warming.

Received 25 January 2008; revised 28 August 2008; accepted 9 September 2008; published 27 November 2008. [1] The radiative forcing associated with biomass burning aerosols has been calculated over West Africa using a chemical transport model. The model simulations focus on the period of JanuaryFebruary 2006 during the Dust and Biomass-burning Experiment (DABEX). All of the main aerosol components for this region are modeled including mineral dust, biomass burning (BB) aerosols, secondary organic carbon associated with BB emissions, and carbonaceous particles from the use of fossil fuel and biofuel. The optical properties of the BB aerosol are specified using aircraft data from DABEX. The modeled aerosol optical depth (AOD) is within 15–20% of data from the few available Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) measurement stations. However, the model predicts very high AOD over central Africa, which disagrees somewhat with satellite retrieved AOD from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR). This indicates that BB emissions may be too high in central Africa or that very high AOD may be incorrectly screened out of the satellite data. The aerosol single scattering albedo increases with wavelength in our model and in AERONET retrievals, which contrasts with results from a previous biomass burning aerosol campaign. The model gives a strong negative radiative forcing of the BB aerosols at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) in clear-sky conditions over most of the domain, except over the Saharan desert where surface albedos are high. The all-sky TOA radiative forcing is quite inhomogeneous with values varying from 10 to 10 W m 2 . The regional mean TOA radiative forcing is close to zero for the all-sky calculation and around 1.5 W m 2 for the clear-sky calculation. Sensitivity simulations indicate a positive regional mean TOA radiative forcing of up to 3 W m 2 .

[1] Recent work has shown a statistical climatological link between African dust outbreaks and North Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency and intensity. However, a definite causal link between year-to-year changes in African dust and Atlantic tropical cyclones has yet to be proven. Here we show that variability in Atlantic dust cover is linked to changes in tropical cyclone activity through the aerosols' surface radiative forcing, which has a net cooling effect on tropical Atlantic Ocean temperatures. In this manuscript we describe a new methodology for incorporating more than 25 years of satellite observations of aerosols into a simple model that estimates the aerosol direct effect and its impact on tropical eastern Atlantic Ocean temperatures. The output from our model suggests that African dust outbreaks play a nonnegligible role in the evolution of eastern Atlantic Ocean temperatures. Using the strong relationship between temperatures in the so-called main development region and the seasonal power dissipation index (PDI), we estimate that about one third of the increase in PDI over the last 25 years can be attributed to decreases in dust loadings over the same period. Our results imply that efforts aimed at attributing causality to past variability of, or at predicting future changes in, North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity must consider the important radiative influence of African dust.

[1] Here we report on estimates of the changes in stratospheric water vapour (SWV) due to methane oxidation based on observational data. Above the tropopause oxidation of methane results in a decrease in its mixing ratio with altitude and this is a major source for SWV. The vertical profile of SWV changes from methane oxidation is presented here using satellite observations of the vertical profile of methane. Trends in the SWV are shown to be small in the lower stratosphere, but can reach 0.7 ppbv at 30 km at high latitudes over the period 1950–2000. The radiative forcing for this indirect effect of methane increase over the industrial era is estimated to be slightly weaker than 0.1 Wm−2 which implies a larger contribution of water vapour to the methane global warming potential than used in recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessments. Our estimate considers only chemical changes and not SWV of dynamical causes. Importantly, we find substantial differences in the temperature change in the stratosphere for a homogeneous change in SWV and SWV change from methane oxidation. This has implications for trend analysis of SWV and understanding and attribution of the stratospheric temperature trend.

[1] The radiative impact of burn scars from biomass is investigated. Changes in surface albedo derived from satellite observations over the African continent are used as a first order indication of this impact. Because the direct radiative effect of aerosols from biomass burning is dependent on the underlying surface albedo, we investigate the interaction of the direct radiative effect due to biomass burning aerosols with the change in surface reflection due to the burn scars. The radiative effect of reduced surface albedo from burn scars is estimated to be close to 0.1 Wm−2 over a region covering the African continent.

Global atmospheric dust is simulated using the Dust Entrainment and Deposition (DEAD) model in combination with the global-scale Oslo chemical transport model CTM2 using meteorological data for 1996. Dust sources are calculated using both mean wind speeds with model resolution T63 and subgrid wind speeds. Different data sets are used to describe soil erodibility. We explain how the different assumptions about dust production affect atmospheric dust burden and deposition. Some aspects of the annual dust cycle, such as the east Asian dust emissions, are largely dependent on the data used to determine soil erodibility. Other aspects, such as the timing of the maximum in the African plume at Northern Hemisphere summer, are well modeled with all data sets applied here. We show that the daily variation in optical depth at Cape Verde on the west coast of Africa is well simulated when we assume that erodibility is correlated with surface reflectivity from Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spetroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data. Using a subgrid probability density function of wind speed to drive the dust sources facilitates dust emissions in areas with low wind speeds. Dust concentrations in remote areas are sensitive to the parameterization of wet deposition. Our results point out the need for a detailed soil erodibility data set for global dust modeling, and they suggest that surface reflectivity is potentially valuable for producing or evaluating such data sets.

[1] In this study we use the capabilities of the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface product to estimate the radiative forcing due to surface albedo changes caused by anthropogenic vegetation changes. We improve the representation of the present surface albedo by using data retrieved from MODIS. The change in surface albedo is based on the current vegetation land cover from MODIS, the MODIS surface albedos for those vegetation types, and a data set for potential natural vegetation. We arrive at a radiative forcing due to anthropogenic vegetation changes of −0.09 Wm−2 since pre-agriculture times to present, weaker than most earlier published results for this climate forcing mechanism. This is mainly due to a lower surface albedo associated with cropland and further with the use of MODIS data to allow us to constrain the surface albedo change.

[1] There is a large discrepancy (greater than 20%) between two recently published estimates of radiative forcing of four hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), two of which, HFC-23 and HFC-134a, are the most abundant HFCs in the atmosphere. We report an intercomparison, using two different radiative transfer methods, aimed at clarifying the forcing values for HFC-23 and HFC-134a, as well as HFC-227ea and HFC-32. The calculated global, annual mean radiative forcings differed by 12% or less and are within the expected errors in the radiative forcing estimates.

ranging from 0.40 to 0.78 W m 2 on a global and annual average. The lower stratosphere contributes an additional 7.5–9.3 DU to the calculated increase in the ozone column, increasing radiative forcing by 0.15–0.17 W m 2 . The modeled radiative forcing depends on the height distribution and geographical pattern of predicted ozone changes and shows a distinct seasonal variation. Despite the large variations between the 11 participating models, the calculated range for normalized radiative forcing is within 25%, indicating the ability to scale radiative forcing to global-mean ozone column change. INDEX TERMS: 0365 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Troposphere—composition and chemistry; 0341 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Middle atmosphere—constituent transport and chemistry (3334) Citation: Gauss, M., et al., Radiative forcing in the 21st century due to ozone changes in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 108(D9), 4292, doi:10.1029/2002JD002624, 2003.

[1] In this study, we model the radiative impact of biomass burning aerosols with meteorological data for the Southern African Regional Science Initiative (SAFARI-2000) experiment campaign period. Satellite, ground-based, and aircraft observations are used in the validation of the modeled aerosol optical depth (AOD), vertical profiles, and radiative impact of the aerosols. The modeled pattern and magnitude of the AOD is generally in good agreement with the observations. The meteorological conditions are found to be important in determining the distribution of the aerosols. The modeled radiative impact of the biomass aerosols compares well to measurements. During September 2000, the modeled radiative impact of biomass aerosols reaches 50 W m 2 locally. INDEX TERMS: 0305 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Aerosols and particles (0345, 4801); 0360 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Transmission and scattering of radiation; 3359 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Radiative processes; KEYWORDS: biomass burning, transport model, single scattering albedo, aerosol optical depth, aircraft measurements, radiative impact Citation: Myhre, G., T. K. Berntsen, J. M. Haywood, J. K. Sundet, B. N. Holben, M. Johnsrud, and F. Stordal, Modeling the solar radiative impact of aerosols from biomass burning during the Southern African Regional Science Initiative (SAFARI-2000) experiment, J. Geophys. Res., 108(D13), 8501, doi:10.1029/2002JD002313, 2003.

[1] The physical and optical properties of Saharan dust aerosol measured by the Met Office C-130 during the Saharan Dust Experiment (SHADE) are presented. Additional radiation measurements enable the determination of the aerosol optical depth, taerl, and the direct radiative effect (DRE) of the mineral dust. The results suggest that the absorption by Saharan dust is significantly overestimated in the solar spectrum if standard refractive indices are used. Our measurements suggest an imaginary part of the refractive index of 0.0015i is appropriate at a wavelength l of 0.55 mm. Different methods for determining taerl=0.55 are presented, and the accuracy of each retrieval method is assessed. The value taerl=0.55 is estimated as 1.48 ± 0.05 during the period of heaviest dust loading, which is derived from an instantaneous DRE of approximately � 129 ± 5 Wm � 2 or an enhancement of the local planetary albedo over ocean of a factor of 2.7 ± 0.1. A comparison of the DRE derived from the C-130 instrumentation and from the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite is presented; the results generally showing agreement to within a factor of 1.2. The results suggest that Saharan dust aerosol exerts the largest local and global DRE of all aerosol species and should be considered explicitly in global radiation budget studies. INDEX TERMS: 0305 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Aerosols and particles (0345, 4801); 0360 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Transmission and scattering of radiation; 1640 Global Change: Remote sensing; 3359 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Radiative processes

[1] The Oslo chemical transport model (Oslo CTM2) is driven by meteorological data to model mineral dust during the Saharan Dust Experiment (SHADE) campaign in September 2000. Model calculations of the optical properties and radiative transfer codes are used to assess the direct radiative impact in the solar and terrestrial regions of the spectrum. The model calculations are compared to a wide range of measurements (satellite, ground-based, and aircraft) during the campaign. The model reproduces the main features during the SHADE campaign, including a large mineral dust storm. The optical properties and the vertical profiles are in reasonable agreement with the measurements. There is a very good agreement between the modeled radiative impact and observations. The strongest local solar radiative impact we model is around −115 Wm−2. On a global scale the radiative effect of mineral dust from Sahara exerts a significant negative net radiative effect.

[1] Aerosols are known to be important in determining Earth’s radiative balance. Dust aerosols are of particular interest since, in addition to their scattering and absorbing properties that affect the solar radiation, they also perturb the terrestrial radiation. Recent studies have shown that a significant proportion of mineral dust in the atmosphere may be of anthropogenic origin, and therefore they may have an important role in climate change by exerting a significant radiative forcing. However, the optical and radiative properties of dust are not yet very well-determined, and even the sign of the resulting forcing is still questionable. The Saharan Dust Experiment (SHADE) was designed to better determine the parameters that are relevant for computing the direct radiative effect. Two aircraft combining in situ and remote sensing instruments were coordinated with satellite overpasses and ground-based observations during the experiment, which was based in the Cape Verde area during the period 19–29 September 2000. These in situ and remotely sensed data provide new valuable information on the microphysical, optical properties, and radiative effects of a large mineral dust outbreak. In addition, a global chemical transport model was used for assessing the radiative impact of these events, which are shown to be important on regional and global scales. INDEX TERMS: 0305 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Aerosols and particles (0345, 4801); 3359 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Radiative processes; 3360 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Remote sensing; KEYWORDS: Saharan dust, physical and optical properties, dust direct radiative forcing