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Five parameterizations of cloud droplet spectral shape are implemented in a global climate model to investigate the dispersion effect and aerosol indirect effect (AIE). We design a series of experiments by modifying the microphysical cloud scheme of NCAR CAM5.3 (National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model Version 5.3). We employ four empirical (Martin94, RLiu03, PengL03, and Liu08) and one semi‐analytical (LiuLi15) expressions for cloud droplet spectral shape parameters. Analysis focuses on the instantaneous differences in the simulated cloud microphysical properties and the comparison between model output and satellite data. The results show that RLiu03, PengL03, and LiuLi15 produce wider droplet spectrum and faster autoconversion rate, but Liu08 has a narrower droplet spectrum and slower autoconversion rate than the default parameterization (Martin94) in CAM5.3. Global dispersion effects caused by the five parameterizations modify the aerosol indirect effect by −10% (counteract) to 13% (strengthen). The simulated AIEs and dispersion effects exhibit noticeably spatial inhomogeneity. In the sensitive regions of AIE (Southeast Asia, North Pacific, and West Coast of South America), we decompose the response of shortwave cloud forcing to the change in droplet number for analysis. The varying dispersion effects can be explained by different responses of cloud properties in different spectral parameterizations.

A team effort to develop a Community Integrated Earth System Model (CIESM) was initiated in China in 2012. The model was based on NCAR Community Earth System Model (Version 1.2.1) with several novel developments and modifications aimed to overcome some persistent systematic biases, such as the double Intertropical Convergence Zone problem and underestimated marine boundary layer clouds. Aerosols' direct and indirect effects are prescribed using the MACv2‐SP approach and data sets. The spin‐up of a 500‐year preindustrial simulation and three historical simulations are described and evaluated. Prominent improvements include alleviated double Intertropical Convergence Zone problem, increased marine boundary layer clouds, and better El Niño Southern Oscillation amplitude and periods. One deficiency of the model is the significantly underestimated Arctic and Antarctic sea ice in warm seasons. The historical warming is about 0.55 °C greater than observations toward 2014. CIESM has an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 5.67 K, mainly resulted from increased positive shortwave cloud feedback. Our efforts on porting and redesigning CIESM for the heterogeneous Sunway TaihuLight supercomputer are also introduced, including some ongoing developments toward a future version of the model.

A new weakly coupled data assimilation (CDA) system based on the dimension‐reduced projection four‐dimensional variational data assimilation (DRP‐4DVar) with a simplified off‐line localization technique and a fully coupled model, i.e., the Grid‐point Version 2 of Flexible Global Ocean‐Atmosphere‐Land System Model (FGOALS‐g2), was developed for the initialization of decadal predictions. A 1‐month assimilation window was adopted for the CDA system, in which monthly mean temperature and salinity analyses were assimilated along the trajectory of the coupled model during the initialization for the period of 1945–2006. The system is efficient because the 62‐year initialization only takes about 2.375 times of the time cost of the uninitialized run for the same period. Compared with the uninitialized simulation and the initialization without localization, ocean temperature and salinity, sea surface elevation, surface air temperature, and precipitation are in better agreement with the verification data. Furthermore, climate variabilities in the Pacific and Atlantic regions such as El Niño‐Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) are more realistically captured. Starting from the initial conditions (ICs) generated by the initialization, 10‐member ensemble decadal prediction experiments were conducted each year from 1961 to 1996. The results demonstrate that higher decadal prediction skills of surface air temperature anomalies averaged over the globe, ocean, land, and the North Pacific subpolar gyre are achieved than those obtained from persistence, the uninitialized simulation, and the prediction initialized from the ICs without localization. Besides, PDO and AMO indices exhibit significant correlation skills in most lead times.

The current capacity of northern high-latitude forests to sequester carbon has been suggested to be undermined by the potential increase in fire and insect outbreaks. Here we investigate the response of the terrestrial ecosystems in the province of British Columbia (BC), Canada, to the recent large mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreak that started in 1999 as well as changing climate and continually increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration up to 2050, in a combined framework, using a process-based model. Model simulations suggest that the recent MPB outbreak results in BC's forests accumulating 328 Tg less carbon over the 1999–2020 period. Over this same period changing climate and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, however, yield enhanced carbon uptake equal to a cumulative sink of around 900–1060 Tg C, depending on the future climate change scenario, indicating that the reduced carbon uptake by land due to the MPB disturbance may already be surpassed by 2020.

In this study, aerosol indirect effects suffer from large uncertainty in climate models and among observations. This study focuses on two plausible factors: regime dependence of aerosol-cloud interactions and the effect of cloud droplet spectral shape. We show, using a new parcel model, that combined consideration of droplet number concentration (Nc) and relative dispersion (e, ratio of standard deviation to mean radius of the cloud droplet size distribution) better characterizes the regime dependence of aerosol-cloud interactions than considering Nc alone. Given updraft velocity (w), e increases with increasing aerosol number concentration (Na) in the aerosol-limited regime, peaks in the transitional regime, and decreases with further increasing Na in the updraft-limited regime. This new finding further reconciles contrasting observations in literature and reinforces the compensating role of dispersion effect. The nonmonotonic behavior of e further quantifies the relationship between the transitional Na and w that separates the aerosol- and updraft-limited regimes.

[1] The semi‒direct effect of black carbon (BC) is studied by using a newly proposed optical property parameterization for cloud droplets with BC inclusions. Based on Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project‒type climate model simulations, it is found that the cloud amount can be either enhanced or reduced when BC is included in clouds. The decrease of the global annual mean total cloud amount is only about 0.023%. The 3‒D cloud fraction distribution, however, shows larger changes which vary with latitude. A correlation between the changes of the cloud fraction and the vertical velocity is found. The cloud water path is mainly affected by low clouds and so the impact of BC on the cloud water path is particularly strong. It is shown that the BC above clouds tends to stabilize the atmosphere and enhance the cloud amount in the boundary layer. This can be used to explain the relationship between aerosol optical depth and cloud amount according to satellite data. For BC in clouds and above, the global annual mean enhancement of solar absorption is about 0.049 W m−2 and 0.57 W m−2, respectively. The BC semi‒direct radiative forcing is estimated by subtracting the BC direct forcing from the BC total radiative forcing. The global annual mean of BC direct forcing and semi‒direct forcing at the top of the atmosphere are 0.264 W m−2 and 0.213 W m−2, respectively.

[1] To study the influence of anthropogenic aerosols on the shape of the cloud droplet size spectra (dispersion effect), we analyze observed liquid water cloud data during two Canadian field studies. Scaled by the parameter β, which is a function of the relative dispersion of cloud droplet spectra, the calculated cloud albedo shows better agreement with the independently measured cloud albedo than the cloud albedo calculated without scaling. The scaling factor β is positively correlated with the cloud droplet number concentration. A linear relationship between β and the cloud droplet number concentration obtained from different field studies is applied to the ECHAM4 general circulation model. The global mean indirect aerosol effect at the top of atmosphere including the dispersion effect is reduced by 0.2 W m−2 as compared to the reference simulation. This accounts for about 1/3 of the reduction that needed to be imposed on the simulated anthropogenic indirect aerosol effect by Lohmann and Lesins [2002].

[1] Twenty-eight liquid water cloud cases selected from two field studies (the Canadian Radiation, Aerosol and Cloud Experiment (RACE) and the First ISCCP Regional Experiment-Arctic Cloud Experiment (FIRE.ACE)) are analyzed with respect to the first and second indirect aerosol effects and the relationship between cloud droplet effective radius and cloud albedo for clean and polluted clouds. For the same liquid water path the polluted clouds have more and smaller cloud droplets and thus a higher cloud albedo and less drizzle size drops. The effective radius is positively correlated with cloud albedo for polluted clouds caused by the absence of drizzle size drops. Conversely effective radius is negatively correlated with cloud albedo for clean clouds.