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Mid- and long-term energy requirements and greenhouse gas emission scenarios for China were presented by using the Integrated Policy Assessment Model of China. Technologies are the key component to reach a low carbon future. Technologies are identified with the scenario analysis. In order to realize the low carbon future, a technology roadmap was presented to reach the emission reduction up to 2050 in China. Twenty-eight key technologies are given in the paper for the technology roadmap, presenting learning curves. With full adoption of these key technologies, we do see ample opportunities for China to make the emission stable after 2020, without a large increase, and even start to have a deep reduction after 2030. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to define low carbon society (LCS) based on the phase diagram with the variables from the IPAT [Human Impact (I) on the environment equals the product of population (P) affluence (A) and technology (T)], starting from the problem definitions: (1) Economy is not everything for LCS and (2) it is not clear if speed on the constraint is more important than liberation from it. To tackle these problems, two research questions are set: (1) What are the basic indicators, objects, and constraints to shape the argument of LCSs and (2) what are the historical paths of several countries and what can be said for their future paths toward carbon societies? Time series data from 1900 or before are used, while the phase diagram with the variables from the IPAT equation is used as the core methodology. In addition to the IPAT variables, the importance of land per capita shall be considered as another basic indicator for LCS related to the carrying capacity. The three different kinds of objects [i.e., total gross domestic product (GDP), GDP per capita, and social indicator] and the two constraints (i.e., total emission and emission per capita) are considered, and it is shown that the combination of these objects and constraints strongly affects the argument of the carrying capacity of climate and land, development of economic system and economic man, and other human developments. Among the four cases analyzed in the phase diagram, the case where GDP per capita is object and total emission is constraint is given the most attention and requires the further research in the future since it does not contradict with a definition of LCS. It is also suggested that if changing the direction of the path with low carbon technology development takes time and cost, institutional arrangement would be additionally necessary in addition to market mechanism where optimal solutions are found on constraint. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]