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Importance: The lack of robust neuroanatomical markers of psychosis risk has been traditionally attributed to heterogeneity. A complementary hypothesis is that variation in neuroanatomical measures in individuals at psychosis risk may be nested within the range observed in healthy individuals., Objective: To quantify deviations from the normative range of neuroanatomical variation in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) and evaluate their overlap with healthy variation and their association with positive symptoms, cognition, and conversion to a psychotic disorder., Design, Setting, and Participants: This case-control study used clinical-, IQ-, and neuroimaging software (FreeSurfer)-derived regional measures of cortical thickness (CT), cortical surface area (SA), and subcortical volume (SV) from 1340 individuals with CHR-P and 1237 healthy individuals pooled from 29 international sites participating in the Enhancing Neuroimaging Genetics Through Meta-analysis (ENIGMA) Clinical High Risk for Psychosis Working Group. Healthy individuals and individuals with CHR-P were matched on age and sex within each recruitment site. Data were analyzed between September 1, 2021, and November 30, 2022., Main Outcomes and Measures: For each regional morphometric measure, deviation scores were computed as z scores indexing the degree of deviation from their normative means from a healthy reference population. Average deviation scores (ADS) were also calculated for regional CT, SA, and SV measures and globally across all measures. Regression analyses quantified the association of deviation scores with clinical severity and cognition, and 2-proportion z tests identified case-control differences in the proportion of individuals with infranormal (z < -1.96) or supranormal (z > 1.96) scores., Results: Among 1340 individuals with CHR-P, 709 (52.91%) were male, and the mean (SD) age was 20.75 (4.74) years. Among 1237 healthy individuals, 684 (55.30%) were male, and the mean (SD) age was 22.32 (4.95) years. Individuals with CHR-P and healthy individuals overlapped in the distributions of the observed values, regional z scores, and all ADS values. For any given region, the proportion of individuals with CHR-P who had infranormal or supranormal values was low (up to 153 individuals [<11.42%]) and similar to that of healthy individuals (<115 individuals [<9.30%]). Individuals with CHR-P who converted to a psychotic disorder had a higher percentage of infranormal values in temporal regions compared with those who did not convert (7.01% vs 1.38%) and healthy individuals (5.10% vs 0.89%). In the CHR-P group, only the ADS SA was associated with positive symptoms (β = -0.08; 95% CI, -0.13 to -0.02; P = .02 for false discovery rate) and IQ (β = 0.09; 95% CI, 0.02-0.15; P = .02 for false discovery rate)., Conclusions and Relevance: In this case-control study, findings suggest that macroscale neuromorphometric measures may not provide an adequate explanation of psychosis risk.

Importance: Clinical trials have not established the optimal type, sequence, and duration of interventions for people at ultrahigh risk of psychosis., Objective: To determine the effectiveness of a sequential and adaptive intervention strategy for individuals at ultrahigh risk of psychosis., Design, Setting, and Participants: The Staged Treatment in Early Psychosis (STEP) sequential multiple assignment randomized trial took place within the clinical program at Orygen, Melbourne, Australia. Individuals aged 12 to 25 years who were seeking treatment and met criteria for ultrahigh risk of psychosis according to the Comprehensive Assessment of At-Risk Mental States were recruited between April 2016 and January 2019. Of 1343 individuals considered, 342 were recruited., Interventions: Step 1: 6 weeks of support and problem solving (SPS); step 2: 20 weeks of cognitive-behavioral case management (CBCM) vs SPS; and step 3: 26 weeks of CBCM with fluoxetine vs CBCM with placebo with an embedded fast-fail option of ω-3 fatty acids or low-dose antipsychotic medication. Individuals who did not remit progressed through these steps; those who remitted received SPS or monitoring for up to 12 months., Main Outcomes and Measures: Global Functioning: Social and Role scales (primary outcome), Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale, Scale for the Assessment of Negative Symptoms, Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale, quality of life, transition to psychosis, and remission and relapse rates., Results: The sample comprised 342 participants (198 female; mean [SD] age, 17.7 [3.1] years). Remission rates, reflecting sustained symptomatic and functional improvement, were 8.5%, 10.3%, and 11.4% at steps 1, 2, and 3, respectively. A total of 27.2% met remission criteria at any step. Relapse rates among those who remitted did not significantly differ between SPS and monitoring (step 1: 65.1% vs 58.3%; step 2: 37.7% vs 47.5%). There was no significant difference in functioning, symptoms, and transition rates between SPS and CBCM and between CBCM with fluoxetine and CBCM with placebo. Twelve-month transition rates to psychosis were 13.5% (entire sample), 3.3% (those who ever remitted), and 17.4% (those with no remission)., Conclusions and Relevance: In this sequential multiple assignment randomized trial, transition rates to psychosis were moderate, and remission rates were lower than expected, partly reflecting the ambitious criteria set and challenges with real-world treatment fidelity and adherence. While all groups showed mild to moderate functional and symptomatic improvement, this was typically short of remission. While further adaptive trials that address these challenges are needed, findings confirm substantial and sustained morbidity and reveal relatively poor responsiveness to existing treatments., Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02751632.

Importance: The ENIGMA clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis initiative, the largest pooled neuroimaging sample of individuals at CHR to date, aims to discover robust neurobiological markers of psychosis risk., Objective: To investigate baseline structural neuroimaging differences between individuals at CHR and healthy controls as well as between participants at CHR who later developed a psychotic disorder (CHR-PS+) and those who did not (CHR-PS-)., Design, Setting, and Participants: In this case-control study, baseline T1-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data were pooled from 31 international sites participating in the ENIGMA Clinical High Risk for Psychosis Working Group. CHR status was assessed using the Comprehensive Assessment of At-Risk Mental States or Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes. MRI scans were processed using harmonized protocols and analyzed within a mega-analysis and meta-analysis framework from January to October 2020., Main Outcomes and Measures: Measures of regional cortical thickness (CT), surface area, and subcortical volumes were extracted from T1-weighted MRI scans. Independent variables were group (CHR group vs control group) and conversion status (CHR-PS+ group vs CHR-PS- group vs control group)., Results: Of the 3169 included participants, 1428 (45.1%) were female, and the mean (SD; range) age was 21.1 (4.9; 9.5-39.9) years. This study included 1792 individuals at CHR and 1377 healthy controls. Using longitudinal clinical information, 253 in the CHR-PS+ group, 1234 in the CHR-PS- group, and 305 at CHR without follow-up data were identified. Compared with healthy controls, individuals at CHR exhibited widespread lower CT measures (mean [range] Cohen d = -0.13 [-0.17 to -0.09]), but not surface area or subcortical volume. Lower CT measures in the fusiform, superior temporal, and paracentral regions were associated with psychosis conversion (mean Cohen d = -0.22; 95% CI, -0.35 to 0.10). Among healthy controls, compared with those in the CHR-PS+ group, age showed a stronger negative association with left fusiform CT measures (F = 9.8; P < .001; q < .001) and left paracentral CT measures (F = 5.9; P = .005; q = .02). Effect sizes representing lower CT associated with psychosis conversion resembled patterns of CT differences observed in ENIGMA studies of schizophrenia (ρ = 0.35; 95% CI, 0.12 to 0.55; P = .004) and individuals with 22q11.2 microdeletion syndrome and a psychotic disorder diagnosis (ρ = 0.43; 95% CI, 0.20 to 0.61; P = .001)., Conclusions and Relevance: This study provides evidence for widespread subtle, lower CT measures in individuals at CHR. The pattern of CT measure differences in those in the CHR-PS+ group was similar to those reported in other large-scale investigations of psychosis. Additionally, a subset of these regions displayed abnormal age associations. Widespread disruptions in CT coupled with abnormal age associations in those at CHR may point to disruptions in postnatal brain developmental processes.

Importance: Biomarkers that are predictive of outcomes in individuals at risk of psychosis would facilitate individualized prognosis and stratification strategies., Objective: To investigate whether proteomic biomarkers may aid prediction of transition to psychotic disorder in the clinical high-risk (CHR) state and adolescent psychotic experiences (PEs) in the general population., Design, Setting, and Participants: This diagnostic study comprised 2 case-control studies nested within the European Network of National Schizophrenia Networks Studying Gene-Environment Interactions (EU-GEI) and the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). EU-GEI is an international multisite prospective study of participants at CHR referred from local mental health services. ALSPAC is a United Kingdom-based general population birth cohort. Included were EU-GEI participants who met CHR criteria at baseline and ALSPAC participants who did not report PEs at age 12 years. Data were analyzed from September 2018 to April 2020., Main Outcomes and Measures: In EU-GEI, transition status was assessed by the Comprehensive Assessment of At-Risk Mental States or contact with clinical services. In ALSPAC, PEs at age 18 years were assessed using the Psychosis-Like Symptoms Interview. Proteomic data were obtained from mass spectrometry of baseline plasma samples in EU-GEI and plasma samples at age 12 years in ALSPAC. Support vector machine learning algorithms were used to develop predictive models., Results: The EU-GEI subsample (133 participants at CHR (mean [SD] age, 22.6 [4.5] years; 68 [51.1%] male) comprised 49 (36.8%) who developed psychosis and 84 (63.2%) who did not. A model based on baseline clinical and proteomic data demonstrated excellent performance for prediction of transition outcome (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC], 0.95; positive predictive value [PPV], 75.0%; and negative predictive value [NPV], 98.6%). Functional analysis of differentially expressed proteins implicated the complement and coagulation cascade. A model based on the 10 most predictive proteins accurately predicted transition status in training (AUC, 0.99; PPV, 76.9%; and NPV, 100%) and test (AUC, 0.92; PPV, 81.8%; and NPV, 96.8%) data. The ALSPAC subsample (121 participants from the general population with plasma samples available at age 12 years (61 [50.4%] male) comprised 55 participants (45.5%) with PEs at age 18 years and 61 (50.4%) without PEs at age 18 years. A model using proteomic data at age 12 years predicted PEs at age 18 years, with an AUC of 0.74 (PPV, 67.8%; and NPV, 75.8%)., Conclusions and Relevance: In individuals at risk of psychosis, proteomic biomarkers may contribute to individualized prognosis and stratification strategies. These findings implicate early dysregulation of the complement and coagulation cascade in the development of psychosis outcomes.

Importance: A promising treatment to prevent onset and improve outcomes in patients at ultrahigh risk for psychosis is dietary supplementation with long-chain ω-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs)., Objective: To determine whether treatment with ω-3 PUFAs in combination with a high-quality psychosocial intervention (cognitive behavioral case management [CBCM]) is more effective than placebo plus CBCM., Design, Setting, and Participants: NEURAPRO, a double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized clinical trial, was conducted from March 1, 2010, to September 30, 2014, in 10 specialized early psychosis treatment services in Australia, Asia, and Europe. The primary analysis used the intention-to-treat approach., Interventions: A daily dose of 1.4 g of ω-3 PUFAs or placebo (paraffin oil), plus 20 or fewer sessions of CBCM over the 6-month study period., Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was transition to psychosis status at 6 months. The secondary outcomes were general levels of psychopathology and functioning, as assessed by the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS) (range, 24-168), Scale for the Assessment of Negative Symptoms (SANS) (range, 0-125), Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS) (range, 0-60), Young Mania Rating Scale (YMRS) (range, 0-44), Social and Occupational Functioning Assessment Scale (SOFAS) (range, 0-100), and the Global Functioning: Social and Role scale (range, 0-10). For SOFAS and Global Functioning: Social and Role scale, higher scores were better; for other measures, lower scores were better., Results: In this study of 304 adults at ultrahigh risk for psychotic disorders, 153 (50.3%) received ω-3 PUFAs and 151 (49.7%) received placebo. In all, 139 (45.7%) were male; mean (SD) age was 19.1 (4.6) years. The Kaplan-Meier-estimated 6-month transition rates were 5.1% (95% CI, 1.3%-8.7%) in the control group and 6.7% (95% CI, 2.3%-10.8%) in the ω-3 PUFA group. At 12 months, the rates were 11.2% (95% CI, 5.5%-16.7%) in the control group and 11.5% (95% CI, 5.8%-16.9%) in the ω-3 PUFA group. No significant difference was observed between the transition rates of both groups (hazard ratio, 1.1; 95% CI, 0.55-2.23; P = .76, stratified log-rank test)., Conclusions and Relevance: This trial clearly failed to replicate the findings of the original single-center trial. The most likely explanation is that ω-3 PUFAs lack efficacy under these conditions. However, the lower-than-expected transition rate may have prevented a test of the main hypothesis. Given the substantial symptomatic and functional improvement in both groups, the other treatments received (ie, CBCM and antidepressants) likely produced a ceiling effect beyond which ω-3 PUFAs, even if effective, could not be shown to confer additional benefits. Nevertheless, the main conclusion is that ω-3 PUFAs are not effective under conditions where good quality, evidence-based psychosocial treatment is available., Trial Registration: anzctr.org.au Identifier: 12608000475347.

Importance: The ultra high-risk (UHR) criteria were introduced to prospectively identify patients at high risk of psychotic disorder. Although the short-term outcome of UHR patients has been well researched, the long-term outcome is not known., Objective: To assess the rate and baseline predictors of transition to psychotic disorder in UHR patients up to 15 years after study entry., Design: Follow-up study of a cohort of UHR patients recruited to participate in research studies between 1993 and 2006., Setting: The Personal Assessment and Crisis Evaluation (PACE) clinic, a specialized service for UHR patients in Melbourne, Australia., Participants: Four hundred sixteen UHR patients previously seen at the PACE clinic., Main Outcomes and Measures: Transition to psychotic disorder, as measured using the Comprehensive Assessment of At-Risk Mental States, Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale/Comprehensive Assessment of Symptoms and History, or state public mental health records., Results: During the time to follow-up (2.4-14.9 years after presentation), 114 of the 416 participants were known to have developed a psychotic disorder. The highest risk for transition was within the first 2 years of entry into the service, but individuals continued to be at risk up to 10 years after initial referral. The overall rate of transition was estimated to be 34.9% over a 10-year period (95% CI, 28.7%-40.6%). Factors associated with transition included year of entry into the clinic, duration of symptoms before clinic entry, baseline functioning, negative symptoms, and disorders of thought content., Conclusions and Relevance: The UHR patients are at long-term risk for psychotic disorder, with the highest risk in the first 2 years. Services should aim to follow up patients for at least this period, with the possibility to return for care after this time. Individuals with a long duration of symptoms and poor functioning at the time of referral may need closer monitoring. Interventions to improve functioning and detect help-seeking UHR patients earlier also may be indicated.