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Context: To better target services to those who may benefit, many guidelines recommend incorporating life expectancy into clinical decisions.Objective: To assess the quality and limitations of prognostic indices for mortality in older adults through systematic review.Data Sources: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane, and Google Scholar from their inception through November 2011.Study Selection: We included indices if they were validated and predicted absolute risk of mortality in patients whose average age was 60 years or older. We excluded indices that estimated intensive care unit, disease-specific, or in-hospital mortality.Data Extraction: For each prognostic index, we extracted data on clinical setting, potential for bias, generalizability, and accuracy.Results: We reviewed 21,593 titles to identify 16 indices that predict risk of mortality from 6 months to 5 years for older adults in a variety of clinical settings: the community (6 indices), nursing home (2 indices), and hospital (8 indices). At least 1 measure of transportability (the index is accurate in more than 1 population) was tested for all but 3 indices. By our measures, no study was free from potential bias. Although 13 indices had C statistics of 0.70 or greater, none of the indices had C statistics of 0.90 or greater. Only 2 indices were independently validated by investigators who were not involved in the index's development.Conclusion: We identified several indices for predicting overall mortality in different patient groups; future studies need to independently test their accuracy in heterogeneous populations and their ability to improve clinical outcomes before their widespread use can be recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Latinos account for 15% of the US population, a proportion projected to grow to 30% by the year 2050. Although there is tremendous diversity within this community, commonalities of language, beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors unite Latinos, making them more similar than different. Differences by national origin, although important, are attenuated when immigrants come to the United States, dominated by an English-language, Anglo-centric culture. For non-Latino and non-Spanish-speaking clinicians, communication barriers and cultural misunderstandings can impede the care of dying Latino patients and their families. We present the case of a young, pregnant, Spanish-speaking woman from Central America diagnosed with a fatal leukemia. As illustrated by this case, Latino immigrants face a number of external challenges to optimal end-of-life care: (1) geographic distance as well as political and economic realities often separate patients from their valued families; (2) undocumented immigrants are frequently uninsured and fear of deportation may create a barrier to accessing health services; (3) language and literacy barriers; and (4) concerns about discrimination. Other Latino issues that may be more pronounced in end-of-life settings include cultural themes and religious and spiritual influences. We recommend that professional interpreters must be used for discussions about goals of care with Spanish-speaking patients and families or when negotiating conflict between the patient, family, and the health care team. Concrete suggestions are provided for clinicians in working with interpreters, eliciting culturally based attitudes and beliefs, and implementing universal strategies for clear health communication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Importance: The widowhood effect, in which mortality increases and function decreases in the period following spousal death, may be heightened in older adults with functional impairment and serious illnesses, such as cancer, dementia, or organ failure, who are highly reliant on others, particularly spouses, for support. Yet there are limited data on widowhood among people with these conditions., Objective: To determine the association of widowhood with function and mortality among older adults with dementia, cancer, or organ failure., Design, Setting, and Participants: This longitudinal cohort study used population-based, nationally representative data from the Health and Retirement Study database linked to Medicare claims from 2008 to 2018. Participants were married or partnered community-dwelling adults aged 65 years and older with and without cancer, organ failure, or dementia and functional impairment (function score <9 of 11 points), matched on widowhood event and with follow-up until death or disenrollment. Analyses were conducted from September 2021 to May 2024., Exposure: Widowhood., Main Outcomes and Measures: Function score (range 0-11 points; 1 point for independence with each activity of daily living [ADL] or instrumental activity of daily living [IADL]; higher score indicates better function) and 1-year mortality., Results: Among 13 824 participants (mean [SD] age, 70.1 [5.5] years; 6416 [46.4%] female; mean [SD] baseline function score, 10.2 [1.6] points; 1-year mortality: 0.4%) included, 5732 experienced widowhood. There were 319 matched pairs of people with dementia, 1738 matched pairs without dementia, 95 matched pairs with cancer, 2637 matched pairs without cancer, 85 matched pairs with organ failure, and 2705 matched pairs without organ failure. Compared with participants without these illnesses, widowhood was associated with a decline in function immediately following widowhood for people with cancer (change, -1.17 [95% CI, -2.10 to -0.23] points) or dementia (change, -1.00 [95% CI, -1.52 to -0.48] points) but not organ failure (change, -0.84 [95% CI, -1.69 to 0.00] points). Widowhood was also associated with increased 1-year mortality among people with cancer (hazard ratio [HR], 1.08 [95% CI, 1.04 to 1.13]) or dementia (HR, 1.14 [95% CI, 1.02 to 1.27]) but not organ failure (HR, 1.02 [95% CI, 0.98 to 1.06])., Conclusions and Relevance: This cohort study found that widowhood was associated with increased functional decline and increased mortality in older adults with functional impairment and dementia or cancer. These findings suggest that persons with these conditions with high caregiver burden may experience a greater widowhood effect.

Importance: Disasters experienced by an entire community provide opportunities to understand individual differences in risk for adverse health outcomes over time. DNA methylation (DNAm) differences may help to distinguish individuals at increased risk following large-scale disasters., Objective: To examine the association of epigenetic age acceleration with probable posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and PTSD symptom severity in women., Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective cohort study examined data from participants in the Women and Their Children's Health cohort, who were characterized longitudinally following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill (DHOS) in 2010 and through numerous hurricanes in the Gulf Coast region of the US. Wave 1 occurred August 6, 2012, through June 26, 2014, and wave 2 occurred September 2, 2014, through May 27, 2016. Data were analyzed between August 18 and November 4, 2023. Address-based sampling was used to recruit women aged 18 to 80 years and residing in 1 of the 7 Louisiana parishes surrounding the DHOS-affected region. Recruitment consisted of 2-stage sampling that (1) undersampled the 2 more urban parishes to maximize probability of participant oil exposure and (2) proportionally recruited participants across census tracts in the 5 other parishes closest to the spill., Exposure: Posttraumatic stress subsequent to the DHOS., Main Outcome and Measures: Epigenetic age acceleration was measured by DNAm assayed from survey wave 1 blood samples. Posttraumatic stress disorder was assessed using the PTSD Checklist for DSM-5 at survey wave 2, and lifetime trauma exposure was assessed using the Life Events Checklist for DSM-5. General linear models were used to examine the association between wave 1 DNAm age and wave 2 probable PTSD diagnosis and symptom severity., Results: A total of 864 women (mean [SD] age, 47.1 [12.0] years; 328 Black [38.0%], 19 American Indian [2.2%], 486 White [56.3%], and 30 of other racial groups, including uknown or unreported [3.5%]) were included. Black and American Indian participants had a higher age acceleration at wave 1 compared with White participants (β = 1.64 [95% CI, 1.02-2.45] and 2.34 [95% CI, 0.33-4.34], respectively), and they had higher PTSD symptom severity at wave 2 (β = 7.10 [95% CI, 4.62-9.58] and 13.08 [95% CI, 4.97-21.18], respectively). Epigenetic age acceleration at wave 1 was associated with PTSD symptom severity at wave 2 after adjusting for race, smoking, body mass index, and household income (β = 0.38; 95% CI, 0.11-0.65)., Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, epigenetic age acceleration was higher in minoritized racial groups and associated with future PTSD diagnosis and severity. These findings support the need for psychoeducation about traumatic responses to increase the likelihood that treatment is sought before years of distress and entrenchment of symptoms and comorbidities occur.

Importance: The Palliative Performance Scale (PPS) is one of the most widely used prognostic tools for patients with serious illness. However, current prognostic estimates associated with PPS scores are based on data that are over a decade old., Objective: To generate updated prognostic estimates by PPS score, care setting, and illness category, and examine how well PPS predicts short- and longer-term survival., Design, Setting, and Participants: This prognostic study was conducted at a large academic medical center with robust inpatient and outpatient palliative care practices using electronic health record data linked with data from California Vital Records. Eligible participants included patients who received a palliative care consultation between January 1, 2018, and December 31, 2020. Data analysis was conducted from November 2022 to February 2024., Exposure: Palliative care consultation with a PPS score documented., Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcomes were predicted 1-, 6-, and 12-month mortality and median survival of patients by PPS score in the inpatient and outpatient settings, and performance of the PPS across a range of survival times. In subgroup analyses, mortality risk by PPS score was estimated in patients with cancer vs noncancer illnesses and those seen in-person vs by video telemedicine in the outpatient setting., Results: Overall, 4779 patients (mean [SD] age, 63.5 [14.8] years; 2437 female [51.0%] and 2342 male [49.0%]) had a palliative care consultation with a PPS score documented. Of these patients, 2276 were seen in the inpatient setting and 3080 were seen in the outpatient setting. In both the inpatient and outpatient settings, 1-, 6-, and 12-month mortality were higher and median survival was shorter for patients with lower PPS scores. Prognostic estimates associated with PPS scores were substantially longer (2.3- to 11.7-fold) than previous estimates commonly used by clinicians. The PPS had good ability to discriminate between patients who lived and those who died in the inpatient setting (integrated time-dependent area under the curve [iAUC], 0.74) but its discriminative ability was lower in the outpatient setting (iAUC, 0.67). The PPS better predicted 1-month survival than longer-term survival. Mortality rates were higher for patients with cancer than other serious illnesses at most PPS levels., Conclusions and Relevance: In this prognostic study, prognostic estimates associated with PPS scores were substantially longer than previous estimates commonly used by clinicians. Based on these findings, an online calculator was updated to assist clinicians in reaching prognostic estimates that are more consistent with modern palliative care practice and specific to the patient's setting and diagnosis group.

Importance: Racial discrimination increases the risk of adverse brain health outcomes, potentially via neuroplastic changes in emotion processing networks. The involvement of deep brain regions (brainstem and midbrain) in these responses is unknown. Potential associations of racial discrimination with alterations in deep brain functional connectivity and accelerated epigenetic aging, a process that substantially increases vulnerability to health problems, are also unknown., Objective: To examine associations of racial discrimination with brainstem and midbrain resting-state functional connectivity (RSFC) and DNA methylation age acceleration (DMAA) among Black women in the US., Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study was conducted between January 1, 2012, and February 28, 2015, and included a community-based sample of Black women (aged ≥18 years) recruited as part of the Grady Trauma Project. Self-reported racial discrimination was examined in association with seed-to-voxel brain connectivity, including the locus coeruleus (LC), periaqueductal gray (PAG), and superior colliculus (SC); an index of DMAA (Horvath clock) was also evaluated. Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), trauma exposure, and age were used as covariates in statistical models to isolate racial discrimination-related variance. Data analysis was conducted between January 10 and October 30, 2023., Exposure: Varying levels of racial discrimination exposure, other trauma exposure, and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD)., Main Outcomes and Measures: Racial discrimination frequency was assessed with the Experiences of Discrimination Scale, other trauma exposure was evaluated with the Traumatic Events Inventory, and current PTSD was evaluated with the PTSD Symptom Scale. Seed-to-voxel functional connectivity analyses were conducted with LC, PAG, and SC seeds. To assess DMAA, the Methylation EPIC BeadChip assay (Illumina) was conducted with whole-blood samples from a subset of 49 participants., Results: This study included 90 Black women, with a mean (SD) age of 38.5 (11.3) years. Greater racial discrimination was associated with greater left LC RSFC to the bilateral precuneus (a region within the default mode network implicated in rumination and reliving of past events; cluster size k = 228; t85 = 4.78; P < .001, false discovery rate-corrected). Significant indirect effects were observed for the left LC-precuneus RSFC on the association between racial discrimination and DMAA (β [SE] = 0.45 [0.16]; 95% CI, 0.12-0.77)., Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, more frequent racial discrimination was associated with proportionately greater RSFC of the LC to the precuneus, and these connectivity alterations were associated with DMAA. These findings suggest that racial discrimination contributes to accelerated biological aging via altered connectivity between the LC and default mode network, increasing vulnerability for brain health problems.

Importance: Most older adults living with dementia ultimately need nursing home level of care (NHLOC)., Objective: To develop models to predict need for NHLOC among older adults with probable dementia using self-report and proxy reports to aid patients and family with planning and care management., Design, Setting, and Participants: This prognostic study included data from 1998 to 2016 from the Health and Retirement Study (development cohort) and from 2011 to 2019 from the National Health and Aging Trends Study (validation cohort). Participants were community-dwelling adults 65 years and older with probable dementia. Data analysis was conducted between January 2022 and October 2023., Exposures: Candidate predictors included demographics, behavioral/health factors, functional measures, and chronic conditions., Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was need for NHLOC defined as (1) 3 or more activities of daily living (ADL) dependencies, (2) 2 or more ADL dependencies and presence of wandering/need for supervision, or (3) needing help with eating. A Weibull survival model incorporating interval censoring and competing risk of death was used. Imputation-stable variable selection was used to develop 2 models: one using proxy responses and another using self-responses. Model performance was assessed by discrimination (integrated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [iAUC]) and calibration (calibration plots)., Results: Of 3327 participants with probable dementia in the Health and Retirement Study, the mean (SD) age was 82.4 (7.4) years and 2301 (survey-weighted 70%) were female. At the end of follow-up, 2107 participants (63.3%) were classified as needing NHLOC. Predictors for both final models included age, baseline ADL and instrumental ADL dependencies, and driving status. The proxy model added body mass index and falls history. The self-respondent model added female sex, incontinence, and date recall. Optimism-corrected iAUC after bootstrap internal validation was 0.72 (95% CI, 0.70-0.75) in the proxy model and 0.64 (95% CI, 0.62-0.66) in the self-respondent model. On external validation in the National Health and Aging Trends Study (n = 1712), iAUC in the proxy and self-respondent models was 0.66 (95% CI, 0.61-0.70) and 0.64 (95% CI, 0.62-0.67), respectively. There was excellent calibration across the range of predicted risk., Conclusions and Relevance: This prognostic study showed that relatively simple models using self-report or proxy responses can predict need for NHLOC in community-dwelling older adults with probable dementia with moderate discrimination and excellent calibration. These estimates may help guide discussions with patients and families in future care planning.

Importance: Many older persons move into long-term care facilities (LTCFs) due to disability and insufficient home caregiving options. However, the extent of disability and caregiving provided around the time of entry is unknown., Objective: To quantitatively describe disability and caregiving before and after LTCF entry, comparing nursing home (NH), assisted living (AL), and independent living (IL) entrants., Design, Setting, and Participants: A longitudinal cohort study using prospectively collected annual data from the National Health and Aging Trends Study from 2011 to 2020 including participants in the continental US. Overall, 932 community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries entering LTCF from 2011 to 2019 were included. Entry into LTCF was set as t = 0, and participant interviews from 4 years before and 2 years after were used., Main Outcomes and Measures: Prevalence of severe disability (severe difficulty or dependence in ≥3 activities of daily living), prevalence of caregivers, and median weekly caregiving hours per entrant, using weighted mixed-effects regression against time as linear spline., Results: At entry, mean (SD) age was 84 (8.4) years, 609 (64%, all percentages survey weighted) were women, 143 (6%) were Black, 29 (3%) were Hispanic, 30 (4%) were other (other race and ethnicity included American Indian, Asian, Native Hawaiian, and other), and 497 (49%) had dementia. 349 (34%) entered NH, 426 (45%) entered AL, and 157 (21%) entered IL. Overall, NH and AL entry were preceded by months of severe disability and escalating caregiving. Before entry, 49% (95% CI, 29%-68%) of NH entrants and 10% (95% CI, 3%-24%) of AL entrants had severe disability. Most (>97%) had at least a caregiver, but only one-third (NH, 33%; 95% CI, 20%-50%; AL, 33%; 95% CI, 24%-44%) had a paid caregiver. Median care was 27 hours weekly (95% CI, 18-40) in NH entrants and 18 (95% CI, 14-24) in AL entrants. On NH and AL entry, severe disability rose to 89% (95% CI, 82%-94%) and 28% (95% CI, 16%-44%) on NH and AL entry and was 66% (95% CI, 55%-75%) 2 years after entry in AL residents. Few IL entrants (<2%) had severe disability and their median care remained less than 7 hours weekly before and after entry., Conclusions: This study found that persons often enter NHs and ALs after months of severe disability and substantial help at home, usually from unpaid caregivers. Assisted living residents move when less disabled, but approach levels of disability similar to NH entrants within 2 years. Data may help clinicians understand when home supports approach a breaking point.

Importance: During the COVID-19 pandemic, many US states issued or revised pandemic preparedness plans guiding allocation of critical care resources during crises. State plans vary in the factors used to triage patients and have faced criticism from advocacy groups due to the potential for discrimination., Objective: To analyze the role of comorbidities and long-term prognosis in state triage procedures., Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study used data gathered from parallel internet searches for state-endorsed pandemic preparedness plans for the 50 US states, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico (hereafter referred to as states), which were conducted between November 25, 2021, and June 16, 2023. Plans available on June 16, 2023, that provided step-by-step instructions for triaging critically ill patients were categorized for use of comorbidities and prognostication., Main Outcomes and Measures: Prevalence and contents of lists of comorbidities and their stated function in triage and instructions to predict duration of postdischarge survival., Results: Overall, 32 state-promulgated pandemic preparedness plans included triage procedures specific enough to guide triage in clinical practice. Twenty of these (63%) included lists of comorbidities that excluded (11 of 20 [55%]) or deprioritized (8 of 20 [40%]) patients during triage; one state's list was formulated to resolve ties between patients with equal triage scores. Most states with triage procedures (21 of 32 [66%]) considered predicted survival beyond hospital discharge. These states proposed different prognostic time horizons; 15 of 21 (71%) were numeric (ranging from 6 months to 5 years after hospital discharge), with the remaining 6 (29%) using descriptive terms, such as long-term., Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study of state-promulgated critical care triage policies, most plans restricted access to scarce critical care resources for patients with listed comorbidities and/or for patients with less-than-average expected postdischarge survival. This analysis raises concerns about access to care during a public health crisis for populations with high burdens of chronic illness, such as individuals with disabilities and minoritized racial and ethnic groups.

Importance: Preeclampsia, gestational hypertension, and gestational diabetes, the most common pregnancy complications, are associated with substantial morbidity and mortality in mothers and children. Little is known about the biological processes that link the occurrence of these pregnancy complications with adverse child outcomes; altered biological aging of the growing fetus up to birth is one molecular pathway of increasing interest., Objective: To evaluate whether exposure to each of these 3 pregnancy complications (gestational diabetes, gestational hypertension, and preeclampsia) is associated with accelerated or decelerated gestational biological age in children at birth., Design, Setting, and Participants: Children included in these analyses were born between 1998 and 2018 and spanned multiple geographic areas of the US. Pregnancy complication information was obtained from maternal self-report and/or medical record data. DNA methylation measures were obtained from blood biospecimens collected from offspring at birth. The study used data from the national Environmental Influences on Child Health Outcomes (ECHO) multisite cohort study collected and recorded as of the August 31, 2021, data lock date. Data analysis was performed from September 2021 to December 2022., Exposures: Three pregnancy conditions were examined: gestational hypertension, preeclampsia, and gestational diabetes., Main Outcomes and Measures: Accelerated or decelerated biological gestational age at birth, estimated using existing epigenetic gestational age clock algorithms., Results: A total of 1801 child participants (880 male [48.9%]; median [range] chronological gestational age at birth, 39 [30-43] weeks) from 12 ECHO cohorts met the analytic inclusion criteria. Reported races included Asian (49 participants [2.7%]), Black (390 participants [21.7%]), White (1026 participants [57.0%]), and other races (92 participants [5.1%]) (ie, American Indian or Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander, multiple races, and other race not specified). In total, 524 participants (29.0%) reported Hispanic ethnicity. Maternal ages ranged from 16 to 45 years of age with a median of 29 in the analytic sample. A range of maternal education levels, from less than high school (260 participants [14.4%]) to Bachelor's degree and above (629 participants [34.9%]), were reported. In adjusted regression models, prenatal exposure to maternal gestational diabetes (β, -0.423; 95% CI, -0.709 to -0.138) and preeclampsia (β, -0.513; 95% CI, -0.857 to -0.170), but not gestational hypertension (β, 0.003; 95% CI, -0.338 to 0.344), were associated with decelerated epigenetic aging among exposed neonates vs those who were unexposed. Modification of these associations, by sex, was observed with exposure to preeclampsia (β, -0.700; 95% CI, -1.189 to -0.210) and gestational diabetes (β, -0.636; 95% CI, -1.070 to -0.200), with associations observed among female but not male participants., Conclusions and Relevance: This US cohort study of neonate biological changes related to exposure to maternal pregnancy conditions found evidence that preeclampsia and gestational diabetes delay biological maturity, especially in female offspring.

Importance: Estimating mortality risk in older adults with dementia is important for guiding decisions such as cancer screening, treatment of new and chronic medical conditions, and advance care planning., Objective: To develop and externally validate a mortality prediction model in community-dwelling older adults with dementia., Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study included community-dwelling participants (aged ≥65 years) in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) from 1998 to 2016 (derivation cohort) and National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS) from 2011 to 2019 (validation cohort)., Exposures: Candidate predictors included demographics, behavioral/health factors, functional measures (eg, activities of daily living [ADL] and instrumental activities of daily living [IADL]), and chronic conditions., Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was time to all-cause death. We used Cox proportional hazards regression with backward selection and multiple imputation for model development. Model performance was assessed by discrimination (integrated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [iAUC]) and calibration (plots of predicted and observed mortality)., Results: Of 4267 participants with probable dementia in HRS, the mean (SD) age was 82.2 (7.6) years, 2930 (survey-weighted 69.4%) were female, and 785 (survey-weighted 12.1%) identified as Black. Median (IQR) follow-up time was 3.9 (2.0-6.8) years, and 3466 (81.2%) participants died by end of follow-up. The final model included age, sex, body mass index, smoking status, ADL dependency count, IADL difficulty count, difficulty walking several blocks, participation in vigorous physical activity, and chronic conditions (cancer, heart disease, diabetes, lung disease). The optimism-corrected iAUC after bootstrap internal validation was 0.76 (95% CI, 0.75-0.76) with time-specific AUC of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.70-0.75) at 1 year, 0.75 (95% CI, 0.73-0.77) at 5 years, and 0.84 (95% CI, 0.82-0.85) at 10 years. On external validation in NHATS (n = 2404), AUC was 0.73 (95% CI, 0.70-0.76) at 1 year and 0.74 (95% CI, 0.71-0.76) at 5 years. Calibration plots suggested good calibration across the range of predicted risk from 1 to 10 years., Conclusions and Relevance: We developed and externally validated a mortality prediction model in community-dwelling older adults with dementia that showed good discrimination and calibration. The mortality risk estimates may help guide discussions regarding treatment decisions and advance care planning.

Importance: It is uncertain whether coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) is associated with cognitive decline in older adults compared with a nonsurgical method of coronary revascularization (percutaneous coronary intervention [PCI])., Objective: To compare the change in the rate of memory decline after CABG vs PCI., Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective cohort study of community-dwelling participants in the Health and Retirement Study, who underwent CABG or PCI between 1998 and 2015 at age 65 years or older. Data were modeled for up to 5 years preceding and 10 years following revascularization or until death, drop out, or the 2016-2017 interview wave. The date of final follow-up was November 2017., Exposures: CABG (including on and off pump) or PCI, ascertained from Medicare fee-for-service billing records., Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was a summary measure of cognitive test scores and proxy cognition reports that were performed biennially in the Health and Retirement Study, referred to as memory score, normalized as a z score (ie, mean of 0, SD of 1 in a reference population of adults aged ≥72 years). Memory score was analyzed using multivariable linear mixed-effects models, with a prespecified subgroup analysis of on-pump and off-pump CABG. The minimum clinically important difference was a change of 1 SD of the population-level rate of memory decline (0.048 memory units/y)., Results: Of 1680 participants (mean age at procedure, 75 years; 41% female), 665 underwent CABG (168 off pump) and 1015 underwent PCI. In the PCI group, the mean rate of memory decline was 0.064 memory units/y (95% CI, 0.052 to 0.078) before the procedure and 0.060 memory units/y (95% CI, 0.048 to 0.071) after the procedure (within-group change, 0.004 memory units/y [95% CI, -0.010 to 0.018]). In the CABG group, the mean rate of memory decline was 0.049 memory units/y (95% CI, 0.033 to 0.065) before the procedure and 0.059 memory units/y (95% CI, 0.047 to 0.072) after the procedure (within-group change, -0.011 memory units/y [95% CI, -0.029 to 0.008]). The between-group difference-in-differences estimate for memory decline for PCI vs CABG was 0.015 memory units/y (95% CI, -0.008 to 0.038; P = .21). There was statistically significant increase in the rate of memory decline after off-pump CABG compared with after PCI (difference-in-differences: mean increase in the rate of decline of 0.046 memory units/y [95% CI, 0.008 to 0.084] after off-pump CABG), but not after on-pump CABG compared with PCI (difference-in-differences: mean slowing of decline of 0.003 memory units/y [95% CI, -0.024 to 0.031] after on-pump CABG)., Conclusions and Relevance: Among older adults undergoing coronary revascularization with CABG or PCI, the type of revascularization procedure was not significantly associated with differences in the change of rate of memory decline.

Importance: There is currently no guidance on how to approach surveillance mammography for older breast cancer survivors, particularly when life expectancy is limited., Objective: To develop expert consensus guidelines that facilitate tailored decision-making for routine surveillance mammography for breast cancer survivors 75 years or older., Evidence: After a literature review of the risk of ipsilateral and contralateral breast cancer events among breast cancer survivors and the harms and benefits associated with mammography, a multidisciplinary expert panel was convened to develop consensus guidelines on surveillance mammography for breast cancer survivors 75 years or older. Using an iterative consensus-based approach, input from clinician focus groups, and critical review by the International Society for Geriatric Oncology, the guidelines were refined and finalized., Findings: The literature review established a low risk for ipsilateral and contralateral breast cancer events in most older breast cancer survivors and summarized the benefits and harms associated with mammography. Draft mammography guidelines were iteratively evaluated by the expert panel and clinician focus groups, emphasizing a patient's risk for in-breast cancer events, age, life expectancy, and personal preferences. The final consensus guidelines recommend discontinuation of routine mammography for all breast cancer survivors when life expectancy is less than 5 years, including those with a history of high-risk cancers; consideration to discontinue mammography when life expectancy is 5 to 10 years; and continuation of mammography when life expectancy is more than 10 years. Individualized, shared decision-making is encouraged to optimally tailor recommendations after weighing the benefits and harms associated with surveillance mammography and patient preferences. The panel also recommends ongoing clinical breast examinations and diagnostic mammography to evaluate clinical findings and symptoms, with reassurance for patients that these practices will continue., Conclusions and Relevance: It is anticipated that these expert guidelines will enhance clinical practice by providing a framework for individualized discussions, facilitating shared decision-making regarding surveillance mammography for breast cancer survivors 75 years or older.

Importance: Parathyroidectomy provides definitive management for primary hyperparathyroidism (PHPT), reducing the risk of subsequent fracture, nephrolithiasis, and chronic kidney disease (CKD), but its use among older adults in the US is unknown., Objective: To identify patient characteristics associated with the use of parathyroidectomy for the management of PHPT in older adults., Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based, retrospective cohort study used 100% Medicare claims from beneficiaries with an initial diagnosis of PHPT from January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2016. Patients were considered to meet consensus guideline criteria for parathyroidectomy based on diagnosis codes indicating osteoporosis, nephrolithiasis, or stage 3 CKD. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify patient characteristics associated with parathyroidectomy. Data were analyzed from February 11, 2020, to October 8, 2020., Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was parathyroidectomy within 1 year of diagnosis., Results: Among 210 206 beneficiaries with an incident diagnosis of PHPT (78.8% women; mean [SD] age, 75.3 [6.8] years), 63 136 (30.0%) underwent parathyroidectomy within 1 year of diagnosis. Among the subset of patients who met consensus guideline criteria for operative management (n = 131 723), 38 983 (29.6%) were treated with parathyroidectomy. Patients treated operatively were younger (mean [SD] age, 73.5 [5.7] vs 76.0 [7.1] years) and more likely to be White (90.1% vs 86.0%), to be robust or prefrail (92.1% vs 85.7%), and to have fewer comorbidities (Charlson Comorbidity Index score of 0 or 1, 54.6% vs 44.1%), in addition to being more likely to live in socioeconomically disadvantaged (46.9% vs 40.3%) and rural (18.1% vs 13.6%) areas (all P < .001). On multivariable analysis, increasing age had a strong inverse association with parathyroidectomy among patients aged 76 to 85 years (unadjusted rate, 25.9%; odds ratio [OR], 0.68 [95% CI, 0.67-0.70]) and older than 85 years (unadjusted rate, 11.2%; OR, 0.27 [95% CI, 0.26-0.29]) compared with those aged 66 to 75 years (unadjusted rate, 35.6%), as did patients with moderate to severe frailty (unadjusted rate, 18.9%; OR, 0.60 [95% CI, 0.56-0.64]) compared with robust patients (unadjusted rate, 36.1%) and those with a Charlson Comorbidity Index score of 2 or greater (unadjusted rate, 25.9%; OR, 0.77 [95% CI, 0.75-0.79]) compared with a Charlson Comorbidity Index score of 0 (unadjusted rate, 37.0%). With regard to operative guidelines, a history of nephrolithiasis increased the odds of parathyroidectomy (OR, 1.43 [95% CI, 1.39-1.47]); stage 3 CKD decreased the odds of parathyroidectomy (OR, 0.71 [95% CI, 0.68-0.74]); and osteoporosis showed no association (OR, 1.01 [95% CI, 0.99-1.03])., Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, most older adults with PHPT did not receive definitive treatment with parathyroidectomy. Older age, frailty, and multimorbidity were associated with nonoperative management, and guideline recommendations had minimal effect on treatment decisions. Further research is needed to identify barriers to surgical care and develop tools to target parathyroidectomy to older adults most likely to benefit.

Importance: Guidelines recommend targeting preventive interventions toward older adults whose life expectancy is greater than the intervention's time to benefit (TTB). The TTB for statin therapy is unknown., Objective: To conduct a survival meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials of statins to determine the TTB for prevention of a first major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) in adults aged 50 to 75 years., Data Sources: Studies were identified from previously published systematic reviews (Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and US Preventive Services Task Force) and a search of MEDLINE and Google Scholar for subsequently published studies until February 1, 2020., Study Selection: Randomized clinical trials of statins for primary prevention focusing on older adults (mean age >55 years)., Data Extraction and Synthesis: Two authors independently abstracted survival data for the control and intervention groups. Weibull survival curves were fit, and a random-effects model was used to estimate pooled absolute risk reductions (ARRs) between control and intervention groups each year. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods were applied to determine time to ARR thresholds., Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was time to ARR thresholds (0.002, 0.005, and 0.010) for a first MACE, as defined by each trial. There were broad similarities in the definition of MACE across trials, with all trials including myocardial infarction and cardiovascular mortality., Results: Eight trials randomizing 65 383 adults (66.3% men) were identified. The mean age ranged from 55 to 69 years old and the mean length of follow-up ranged from 2 to 6 years. Only 1 of 8 studies showed that statins decreased all-cause mortality. The meta-analysis results suggested that 2.5 (95% CI, 1.7-3.4) years were needed to avoid 1 MACE for 100 patients treated with a statin. To prevent 1 MACE for 200 patients treated (ARR = 0.005), the TTB was 1.3 (95% CI, 1.0-1.7) years, whereas the TTB to avoid 1 MACE for 500 patients treated (ARR = 0.002) was 0.8 (95% CI, 0.5-1.0) years., Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that treating 100 adults (aged 50-75 years) without known cardiovascular disease with a statin for 2.5 years prevented 1 MACE in 1 adult. Statins may help to prevent a first MACE in adults aged 50 to 75 years old if they have a life expectancy of at least 2.5 years. There is no evidence of a mortality benefit.

Importance: Chronic pain is common among the elderly and is associated with cognitive deficits in cross-sectional studies; the population-level association between chronic pain and longitudinal cognition is unknown., Objective: To determine the population-level association between persistent pain, which may reflect chronic pain, and subsequent cognitive decline., Design, Setting, and Participants: Cohort study with biennial interviews of 10 065 community-dwelling older adults in the nationally representative Health and Retirement Study who were 62 years or older in 2000 and answered pain and cognition questions in both 1998 and 2000. Data analysis was conducted between June 24 and October 31, 2016., Exposures: "Persistent pain," defined as a participant reporting that he or she was often troubled with moderate or severe pain in both the 1998 and 2000 interviews., Main Outcomes and Measures: Coprimary outcomes were composite memory score and dementia probability, estimated by combining neuropsychological test results and informant and proxy interviews, which were tracked from 2000 through 2012. Linear mixed-effects models, with random slope and intercept for each participant, were used to estimate the association of persistent pain with slope of the subsequent cognitive trajectory, adjusting for demographic characteristics and comorbidities measures in 2000 and applying sampling weights to represent the 2000 US population. We hypothesized that persistent pain would predict accelerated memory decline and increased probability of dementia. To quantify the impact of persistent pain on functional independence, we combined our primary results with information on the association between memory and ability to manage medications and finances independently., Results: Of the 10 065 eligible HRS sample members, 60% were female, and median baseline age was 73 years (interquartile range, 67-78 years). At baseline, persistent pain affected 10.9% of participants and was associated with worse depressive symptoms and more limitations in activities of daily living. After covariate adjustment, persistent pain was associated with 9.2% (95% CI, 2.8%-15.0%) more rapid memory decline compared with those without persistent pain. After 10 years, this accelerated memory decline implied a 15.9% higher relative risk of inability to manage medications and an 11.8% higher relative risk of inability to manage finances independently. Adjusted dementia probability increased 7.7% faster (95% CI, 0.55%-14.2%); after 10 years, this translates to an absolute 2.2% increase in dementia probability for those with persistent pain., Conclusions and Relevance: Persistent pain was associated with accelerated memory decline and increased probability of dementia.

Importance: Serious illness impairs function and threatens survival. Patients facing serious illness value shared decision making, yet few decision aids address the needs of this population., Objective: To perform a systematic review of evidence about decision aids and other exportable tools that promote shared decision making in serious illness, thereby (1) identifying tools relevant to the treatment decisions of seriously ill patients and their caregivers, (2) evaluating the quality of evidence for these tools, and (3) summarizing their effect on outcomes and accessibility for clinicians., Evidence Review: We searched PubMed, CINAHL, and PsychInfo from January 1, 1995, through October 31, 2014, and identified additional studies from reference lists and other systematic reviews. Clinical trials with random or nonrandom controls were included if they tested print, video, or web-based tools for advance care planning (ACP) or decision aids for serious illness. We extracted data on the study population, design, results, and risk for bias using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) criteria. Each tool was evaluated for its effect on patient outcomes and accessibility., Findings: Seventeen randomized clinical trials tested decision tools in serious illness. Nearly all the trials were of moderate or high quality and showed that decision tools improve patient knowledge and awareness of treatment choices. The available tools address ACP, palliative care and goals of care communication, feeding options in dementia, lung transplant in cystic fibrosis, and truth telling in terminal cancer. Five randomized clinical trials provided further evidence that decision tools improve ACP documentation, clinical decisions, and treatment received., Conclusions and Relevance: Clinicians can access and use evidence-based tools to engage seriously ill patients in shared decision making. This field of research is in an early stage; future research is needed to develop novel decision aids for other serious diagnoses and key decisions. Health care delivery organizations should prioritize the use of currently available tools that are evidence based and effective.

Importance: Whereas many persons at advanced ages live independently and are free of disability, we know little about how likely older people are to be disabled in the basic activities of daily living that are necessary for independent living as they enter the last years of life., Objective: To determine national estimates of disability during the last 2 years of life., Design: Prospective cohort study., Setting: A nationally representative study of older adults in the United States., Participants: Participants 50 years and older who died while enrolled in the Health and Retirement Study between 1995 and 2010. Each participant was interviewed once at a varying time point in the last 24 months of life. We used these interviews to calculate national estimates of the prevalence of disability across the 2 years prior to death. We modeled the prevalence of disability in the 2 years prior to death for groups defined by age at death and sex., Main Outcomes and Measures: Disability was defined as need for help with at least 1 of the following activities of daily living: dressing, bathing, eating, transferring, walking across the room, and using the toilet., Results: There were 8232 decedents (mean [SD] age at death, 79 [11] years; 52% women). The prevalence of disability increased from 28% (95% CI, 24%-31%) 2 years before death to 56% (95% CI, 52%-60%) in the last month of life. Those who died at the oldest ages were much more likely to have disability 2 years before death (ages 50-69 years, 14%; 70-79 years, 21%; 80-89 years, 32%; 90 years or more, 50%; P for trend, <.001). Disability was more common in women 2 years before death (32% [95% CI, 28%-36%]) than men (21% [95% CI, 18%-25%]; P < .001), even after adjustment for older age at death., Conclusions and Relevance: Those who live to an older age are likely to be disabled, and thus in need of caregiving assistance, many months or years prior to death. Women have a substantially longer period of end-of-life disability than men.

Rising use of advance directives has made surrogate decision making both easier and harder. In many cases, these directives help guide decision making for patients who have lost decision-making capacity. In some cases, however, directives may conflict with what physicians or surrogates view as what is in the patient's best interest. These conflicts can place substantial emotional and moral burdens on physicians and surrogates, and there is little practical guidance for how to address them. We propose a 5-question framework for untangling the conflict between advance directives and best interests of a patient with a surrogate decision maker: (1) Is the clinical situation an emergency? (2) In view of the patient's values and goals, how likely is it that the benefits of the intervention will outweigh the burdens? (3) How well does the advance directive fit the situation at hand? (4) How much leeway did the patient provide the surrogate for overriding the advance directive? (5) How well does the surrogate represent the patient's best interests? We use 2 clinical cases with contrasting outcomes to demonstrate how this framework can help resolve common dilemmas.

Context: The association between environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) exposure and respiratory symptoms has not been well established in adults., Objective: To study the respiratory health of bartenders before and after legislative prohibition of smoking in all bars and taverns by the state of California., Design: Cohort of bartenders interviewed before and after smoking prohibition., Setting and Participants: Bartenders at a random sample of bars and taverns in San Francisco., Main Outcome Measures: Interviews assessed respiratory symptoms, sensory irritation symptoms, ETS exposure, personal smoking, and recent upper respiratory tract infections. Spirometric assessment included forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) measurements., Results: Fifty-three of 67 eligible bartenders were interviewed. At baseline, all 53 bartenders reported workplace ETS exposure. After the smoking ban, self-reported ETS exposure at work declined from a median of 28 to 2 hours per week (P<.001). Thirty-nine bartenders (74%) initially reported respiratory symptoms. Of those symptomatic at baseline, 23 (59%) no longer had symptoms at follow-up (P<.001). Forty-one bartenders (77%) initially reported sensory irritation symptoms. At follow-up, 32 (78%) of these subjects had resolution of symptoms (P<.001). After prohibition of workplace smoking, we observed improvement in mean FVC (0.189 L; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.082-0.296 L; 4.2% change) and, to a lesser extent, mean FEV1 (0.039 L; 95% CI, -0.030 to 0.107 L; 1.2% change). Complete cessation of workplace ETS exposure (compared with continued exposure) was associated with improved mean FVC (0.287 L; 95% CI, 0.088-0.486; 6.8% change) and mean FEV1 (0.142 L; 95% CI, 0.020-0.264 L; 4.5% change), after controlling for personal smoking and recent upper respiratory tract infections., Conclusion: Establishment of smoke-free bars and taverns was associated with a rapid improvement of respiratory health.