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Key Points: Question: For individuals undergoing medication treatment for opioid use disorder, can those who will return to opioid use be predicted at the individual level? Findings: In this decision analytical model using a harmonized data set of 2199 adults with opioid use disorder, incorporating treatment entry characteristics and urine drug screen results in the first 3 weeks of treatment improved model performance in predicting return to use. Meaning: These findings suggest that clinicians can use a web-based predictive model to stratify return-to-use risk when delivering care for patients with opioid use disorder. This decision analytical model uses a harmonized data set to develop an individual-level prediction tool to assess the risk of return to use in patients treated for opioid use disorder. Importance: No existing model allows clinicians to predict whether patients might return to opioid use in the early stages of treatment for opioid use disorder. Objective: To develop an individual-level prediction tool for risk of return to use in opioid use disorder. Design, Setting, and Participants: This decision analytical model used predictive modeling with individual-level data harmonized in June 1, 2019, to October 1, 2022, from 3 multicenter, pragmatic, randomized clinical trials of at least 12 weeks' duration within the National Institute on Drug Abuse Clinical Trials Network (CTN) performed between 2006 and 2016. The clinical trials covered a variety of treatment settings, including federally licensed treatment sites, physician practices, and inpatient treatment facilities. All 3 trials enrolled adult participants older than 18 years, with broad pragmatic inclusion and few exclusion criteria except for major medical and unstable psychiatric comorbidities. Intervention: All participants received 1 of 3 medications for opioid use disorder: methadone, buprenorphine, or extended-release naltrexone. Main Outcomes and Measures: Predictive models were developed for return to use, which was defined as 4 consecutive weeks of urine drug screen (UDS) results either missing or positive for nonprescribed opioids by week 12 of treatment. Results: The overall sample included 2199 trial participants (mean [SD] age, 35.3 [10.7] years; 728 women [33.1%] and 1471 men [66.9%]). The final model based on 4 predictors at treatment entry (heroin use days, morphine- and cocaine-positive UDS results, and heroin injection in the past 30 days) yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.67 (95% CI, 0.62-0.71). Adding UDS in the first 3 treatment weeks improved model performance (AUROC, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.78-0.85). A simplified score (CTN-0094 OUD Return-to-Use Risk Score) provided good clinical risk stratification wherein patients with weekly opioid-negative UDS results in the 3 weeks after treatment initiation had a 13% risk of return to use compared with 85% for those with 3 weeks of opioid-positive or missing UDS results (AUROC, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.76-0.84). Conclusions and Relevance: The prediction model described in this study may be a universal risk measure for return to opioid use by treatment week 3. Interventions to prevent return to regular use should focus on this critical early treatment period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Importance: Substance use is a major driver of the HIV epidemic and is associated with poor HIV care outcomes. Patient navigation (care coordination with case management) and the use of financial incentives for achieving predetermined outcomes are interventions increasingly promoted to engage patients in substance use disorders treatment and HIV care, but there is little evidence for their efficacy in improving HIV-1 viral suppression rates., Objective: To assess the effect of a structured patient navigation intervention with or without financial incentives to improve HIV-1 viral suppression rates among patients with elevated HIV-1 viral loads and substance use recruited as hospital inpatients., Design, Setting, and Participants: From July 2012 through January 2014, 801 patients with HIV infection and substance use from 11 hospitals across the United States were randomly assigned to receive patient navigation alone (n = 266), patient navigation plus financial incentives (n = 271), or treatment as usual (n = 264). HIV-1 plasma viral load was measured at baseline and at 6 and 12 months., Interventions: Patient navigation included up to 11 sessions of care coordination with case management and motivational interviewing techniques over 6 months. Financial incentives (up to $1160) were provided for achieving targeted behaviors aimed at reducing substance use, increasing engagement in HIV care, and improving HIV outcomes. Treatment as usual was the standard practice at each hospital for linking hospitalized patients to outpatient HIV care and substance use disorders treatment., Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was HIV viral suppression (≤200 copies/mL) relative to viral nonsuppression or death at the 12-month follow-up., Results: Of 801 patients randomized, 261 (32.6%) were women (mean [SD] age, 44.6 years [10.0 years]). There were no differences in rates of HIV viral suppression versus nonsuppression or death among the 3 groups at 12 months. Eighty-five of 249 patients (34.1%) in the usual-treatment group experienced treatment success compared with 89 of 249 patients (35.7%) in the navigation-only group for a treatment difference of 1.6% (95% CI, -6.8% to 10.0%; P = .80) and compared with 98 of 254 patients (38.6%) in the navigation-plus-incentives group for a treatment difference of 4.5% (95% CI -4.0% to 12.8%; P = .68). The treatment difference between the navigation-only and the navigation-plus-incentives group was -2.8% (95% CI, -11.3% to 5.6%; P = .68)., Conclusions and Relevance: Among hospitalized patients with HIV infection and substance use, patient navigation with or without financial incentives did not have a beneficial effect on HIV viral suppression relative to nonsuppression or death at 12 months vs treatment as usual. These findings do not support these interventions in this setting., Trial Registration: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01612169.

Context: Late preterm births (340/7-366/7 weeks) account for an increasing proportion of prematurity-associated short-term morbidities, particularly respiratory, that require specialized care and prolonged neonatal hospital stays., Objective: To assess short-term respiratory morbidity in late preterm births compared with term births in a contemporary cohort of deliveries in the United States., Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective collection of electronic data from 12 institutions (19 hospitals) across the United States on 233,844 deliveries between 2002 and 2008. Charts were abstracted for all neonates with respiratory compromise admitted to a neonatal intensive care unit (NICU), and late preterm births were compared with term births in regard to resuscitation, respiratory support, and respiratory diagnoses. A multivariate logistic regression analysis compared infants at each gestational week, controlling for factors that influence respiratory outcomes., Main Outcome Measures: Respiratory distress syndrome, transient tachypnea of the newborn, pneumonia, respiratory failure, and standard and oscillatory ventilator support., Results: Of 19,334 late preterm births, 7055 (36.5%) were admitted to a NICU and 2032 had respiratory compromise. Of 165,993 term infants, 11,980 (7.2%) were admitted to a NICU, 1874 with respiratory morbidity. The incidence of respiratory distress syndrome was 10.5% (390/3700) for infants born at 34 weeks' gestation vs 0.3% (140/41,764) at 38 weeks. Similarly, incidence of transient tachypnea of the newborn was 6.4% (n = 236) for those born at 34 weeks vs 0.4% (n = 155) at 38 weeks, pneumonia was 1.5% (n = 55) vs 0.1% (n = 62), and respiratory failure was 1.6% (n = 61) vs 0.2% (n = 63). Standard and oscillatory ventilator support had similar patterns. Odds of respiratory distress syndrome decreased with each advancing week of gestation until 38 weeks compared with 39 to 40 weeks (adjusted odds ratio [OR] at 34 weeks, 40.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 32.0-50.3 and at 38 weeks, 1.1; 95% CI, 0.9-1.4). At 37 weeks, odds of respiratory distress syndrome were greater than at 39 to 40 weeks (adjusted OR, 3.1; 95% CI, 2.5-3.7), but the odds at 38 weeks did not differ from 39 to 40 weeks. Similar patterns were noted for transient tachypnea of the newborn (adjusted OR at 34 weeks, 14.7; 95% CI, 11.7-18.4 and at 38 weeks, 1.0; 95% CI, 0.8-1.2), pneumonia (adjusted OR at 34 weeks, 7.6; 95% CI, 5.2-11.2 and at 38 weeks, 0.9; 95% CI, 0.6-1.2), and respiratory failure (adjusted OR at 34 weeks, 10.5; 95% CI, 6.9-16.1 and at 38 weeks, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.0-1.9)., Conclusion: In a contemporary cohort, late preterm birth, compared with term delivery, was associated with increased risk of respiratory distress syndrome and other respiratory morbidity.