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Estimates of lifetime risk for total cardiovascular disease (CVD) may provide projections of the future population burden of CVD and may assist in clinician-patient risk communication. To date, no lifetime risk estimates of total CVD have been reported.To calculate lifetime risk estimates of total CVD by index age (45, 55, 65, 75 years) and risk factor strata and to estimate years lived free of CVD across risk factor strata.Pooled survival analysis of as many as 905,115 person-years of data from 1964 through 2008 from 5 National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute-funded community-based cohorts: Framingham Heart Study, Framingham Offspring Study, Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, Chicago Heart Association Detection Project in Industry Study, and Cardiovascular Health Study. All participants were free of CVD at baseline with risk factor data (blood pressure [BP], total cholesterol [TC], diabetes, and smoking status) and total CVD outcome data.Any total CVD event (including fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease, all forms of stroke, congestive heart failure, and other CVD deaths).At an index age of 45 years, overall lifetime risk for total CVD was 60.3% (95% CI, 59.3%-61.2%) for men and 55.6% (95% CI, 54.5%-56.7%) for women. Men had higher lifetime risk estimates than women across all index ages. At index ages 55 and 65 years, men and women with at least 1 elevated risk factor (BP, 140-149/90-99 mm Hg; or TC, 200-239 mg/dL; but no diabetes or smoking), 1 major risk factor, or at least 2 major risk factors (BP, ≥160/100 mm Hg or receiving treatment; TC, ≥240 mg/dL or receiving treatment; diabetes mellitus; or current smoking) had lifetime risk estimates to age 95 years that exceeded 50%. Despite an optimal risk factor profile (BP,120/80 mm Hg; TC,180 mg/dL; and no smoking or diabetes), men and women at the index age of 55 years had lifetime risks (through 85 years of age) for total CVD of greater than 40% and 30%, respectively. Compared with participants with at least 2 major risk factors, those with an optimal risk factor profile lived up to 14 years longer free of total CVD.Lifetime risk estimates for total CVD were high (30%) for all individuals, even those with optimal risk factors in middle age. However, maintenance of optimal risk factor levels in middle age was associated with substantially longer morbidity-free survival.

BACKGROUND: Findings from epidemiological studies suggest an inverse relationship between individuals’ protein intake and their blood pressure. METHODS: Cross-sectional epidemiological study of 4680 persons, aged 40 to 59 years, from 4 countries. Systolic and diastolic blood pressure was measured 8 times at 4 visits. Dietary intake based on 24-hour dietary recalls was recorded 4 times. Information on dietary supplements was noted. Two 24-hour urine samples were obtained per person. RESULTS: There was a significant inverse relationship between vegetable protein intake and blood pressure. After adjusting for confounders, blood pressure differences associated with higher vegetable protein intake of 2.8% kilocalories were −2.14 mm Hg systolic and −1.35 mm Hg diastolic (P

ContextFor women, impact of cardiovascular risk factors measured in young adulthood, particularly favorable (low-risk) profile, on mortality has been difficult to assess due to low short-term death rates.ObjectiveTo assess the relationship of baseline coronary risk factor status to mortality from coronary heart disease (CHD), cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), and all causes in young women.DesignProspective cohort study.Setting and ParticipantsA total of 7302 women aged 18 to 39 years without prior CHD or major electrocardiographic abnormalities screened between 1967 and 1973 for the Chicago Heart Association Detection Project in Industry. Risk groups were defined using national guidelines for values of systolic and diastolic blood pressure, serum cholesterol level, body mass index, presence of diabetes, and smoking status. Participants were divided into 4 groups: low risk, 0 risk factors high but 1 or more unfavorable, 1 only risk factor high, and 2 or more risk factors high.Main Outcome MeasuresAll-cause mortality, CHD mortality, and CVD mortality; hazard ratio of outcome measures comparing low-risk group with other groups.ResultsOnly 20% met low-risk criteria; 59% had high levels of 1 or more risk factors. During an average follow-up of 31 years, there were 47 CHD deaths, 94 CVD deaths, and 469 deaths from all causes. The age-adjusted CVD death rate per 10 000 person-years was lowest for low-risk women and increased with the number of risk factors, ie, 1.5, 1.7, 5.0, and 9.1 for low-risk; 0, 1, and 2 or more risk factors high, respectively. Multivariate-adjusted CVD mortality hazard ratio for low-risk women was 0.19 (95% confidence interval, 0.08-0.45) compared with women with 2 or more risk factors high. Similar patterns were observed for CHD and all-cause mortality and for both blacks and whites.ConclusionFor women with favorable levels for all 5 major risk factors at younger ages, CHD and CVD are rare; long-term and all-cause mortality are much lower compared with others.

Overweight and obesity are associated with higher morbidity and shorter life expectancy, but the effect of body mass index (BMI) (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by the square of height in meters) ascertained during middle age on subsequent quality of life among older survivors is unknown. This study evaluates whether BMI in middle age is related to health-related quality of life in older age.This prospective cohort of adults from the Chicago Heart Association Detection Project in Industry included 6766 middle-aged men and women, aged 36 to 64 years, without diabetes mellitus or myocardial infarction at baseline (November 7, 1967-January 8, 1973), who completed a 26-year follow-up questionnaire in 1996 when they were 65 years and older. Relationships of baseline BMI (categories: normal weight, overweight, and obese) to mean 26-year follow-up Health Status Questionnaire 12 scores (measuring physical, mental, and social well-being) were assessed.For men and women, BMI had significant inverse-graded associations with all Health Status Questionnaire 12 scores (P.01 for trend for all). Scores (adjusted for baseline cardiovascular disease risk factors and 1996 age) were highest (best) in normal-weight individuals (BMI, 18.5-25.0) and decreased significantly (P range,.006-.001 for trend) with higher BMI, with worst outcomes for obese persons (BMI,or=30.0). A higher multivariate-adjusted percentage of normal-weight persons reported excellent or very good health compared with overweight and obese persons: for women, 46.8% vs 37.9% and 24.3%; and for men, 53.8% vs 49.1% and 36.5% (P.001 for trend).A higher BMI in middle age is associated with a poorer quality of life in older age. Preventive measures may lessen the burden of disease and impaired quality of life associated with excess weight.

ContextA frequently cited concept is that individual major risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) are absent in many patients (perhaps >50%) with CHD. However, prior studies have not systematically evaluated the extent to which CHD patients have previous exposure to at least 1 risk factor, including diabetes, cigarette smoking, or clinically elevated levels of cholesterol or blood pressure.ObjectiveTo determine the frequency of exposure to major CHD risk factors.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThree prospective cohort studies were included: the Chicago Heart Association Detection Project in Industry, with a population sample of 35 642 employed men and women aged 18 to 59 years; screenees for the Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial, including 347 978 men aged 35 to 57 years; and a population-based sample of 3295 men and women aged 34 to 59 years from the Framingham Heart Study (FHS). Follow-up lasted 21 to 30 years across the studies.Main Outcome MeasuresFatal CHD in all cohorts and nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI) in the FHS, compared by exposure to major CHD risk factors, defined as total cholesterol of at least 240 mg/dL (≥6.22 mmol/L), systolic blood pressure of at least 140 mm Hg, diastolic blood pressure of at least 90 mm Hg, cigarette smoking, and diabetes. Participants were stratified by sex and age (18-39 vs 40-59 years).ResultsFor fatal CHD (n = 20 995), exposure to at least 1 clinically elevated major risk factor ranged from 87% to 100%. Among those aged 40 to 59 years at baseline with fatal CHD (n = 19 263), exposure to at least 1 major risk factor ranged from 87% to 94%. For nonfatal MI, prior exposure was documented in 92% (95% CI, 87%-96%) (n = 167) of men aged 40 to 59 years at baseline and in 87% (95% CI, 80%-94%) (n = 94) of women in this age group.ConclusionsAntecedent major CHD risk factor exposures were very common among those who developed CHD, emphasizing the importance of considering all major risk factors in determining CHD risk estimation and in attempting to prevent clinical CHD. These results challenge claims that CHD events commonly occur in persons without exposure to at least 1 major CHD risk factor.

Background: Data are limited on blood pressure (BP) in young adults and long-term mortality. Moreover, screening and hypertension treatment guidelines have been based mainly on findings for middle-aged and older populations. This study assesses relationships of BP measured in young adult men to long-term mortality due to coronary heart disease (CHD), cardiovascular diseases (CVD), and all causes. Methods: This cohort from the Chicago Heart Association Detection Project in Industry included 10 874 men aged 18 to 39 years at baseline (1967-1973), not receiving antihypertensive drugs, and without CHD or diabetes. Relationship of baseline BP to 25-year CHD, CVD, and all-cause mortality was assessed. Results: Age-adjusted association of systolic BP to CHD mortality was continuous and graded. Multivariateadjusted CHD hazard ratios (HRs) for 1 SD higher systolic BP (15 mm Hg) and diastolic BP (10 mm Hg) were 1.26 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.11-1.44) and 1.17 (95% CI, 1.01-1.35), respectively. Compared with the Sixth Report of the Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure stratum with normal BP (and lowest mortality rates), the large strata with high-normal BP and stage 1 hypertension had 25-year absolute risks for death of 63 and 72 per 1000, respectively, and absolute excess risks of 10 and 20 per 1000, respectively; accounted for 59.8% of all excess CHD, CVD, and all-cause mortality; and were estimated to have life expectancy shortened by 2.2 and 4.1 years, respectively. Conclusions: In young adult men, BP above normal was significantly related to increased long-term mortality due to CHD, CVD, and all causes. Population-wide primary prevention, early detection, and control of higher BP are indicated from young adulthood on. Arch Intern Med. 2001;161:1501-1508

ContextBased on observational and interventional data for middle-aged cohorts (aged 40-64 years), serum cholesterol level is known to be an established major risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD). However, findings for younger people are limited, and the value of detecting and treating hypercholesterolemia in younger adults is debated.ObjectiveTo evaluate the long-term impact of unfavorable serum cholesterol levels on risk of death from CHD, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and all causes.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThree prospective studies, from which were selected 3 cohorts of younger men with baseline serum cholesterol level measurements and no history of diabetes mellitus or myocardial infarction. A total of 11,017 men aged 18 through 39 years screened in 1967-1973 for the Chicago Heart Association Detection Project in Industry (CHA); 1266 men aged 25 through 39 years examined in 1959-1963 in the Peoples Gas Company Study (PG); and 69,205 men aged 35 through 39 years screened in 1973-1975 for the Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial (MRFIT).Main Outcome MeasuresCause-specific mortality during 25 (CHA), 34 (PG), and 16 (MRFIT) years of follow-up; mortality risks; and estimated life expectancy in relation to baseline serum cholesterol levels.ResultsDeath due to CHD accounted for 26%, 34%, and 28% of all deaths in the CHA, PG, and MRFIT cohorts, respectively; and CVD death for 34%, 42%, and 39% of deaths in the same cohorts, respectively. Men in all 3 cohorts with unfavorable serum cholesterol levels (200-239 mg/dL [5.17-6.18 mmol/L] and ≥240 mg/dL [≥6.21 mmol/L]) had strong gradients of relative mortality risk. For men with serum cholesterol levels of 240 mg/dL or greater (≥6.21 mmol/L) vs favorable levels (

ContextMinor electrocardiographic (ECG) ST-T abnormalities are common, but their prognostic importance has not been fully determined.ObjectiveTo examine associations of single (1 time only) and multiple (2 times only and ≥3 times) nonspecific minor ST-T abnormalities in 5 years with long-term mortality due to myocardial infarction (MI), coronary heart disease (CHD), cardiovascular disease (CVD), and all causes in middle-aged men.DesignProspective cohort study (29-year follow-up after 5 annual examinations).Setting and ParticipantsA total of 1673 men employed at the Western Electric Company in Chicago, Ill, aged 40 to 55 years at entry, with no evidence of CHD and no major ECG abnormalities throughout the first 5-year period.Main Outcome MeasuresMinor ST-T abnormalities identified from annual resting ECGs and mortality ascertained from death certificates.ResultsOf the 1673 men, 173 had evidence of isolated nonspecific minor ST-T segment abnormalities. During the follow-up period, there were 234 deaths due to MI, 352 deaths due to CHD, 463 deaths due to CVD, and 889 deaths due to all causes. For men with 3 or more annual recordings of minor ST-T abnormalities, risk of death due to MI, CHD, CVD, and all causes was significantly greater than for those with normal ECG findings. For men with 3 or more ECGs with minor ST-T abnormalities, relative risks (and 95% confidence intervals) adjusted for cardiovascular and other risk factors were 2.28 (1.16-4.49), 2.39 (1.39-4.12), 2.30 (1.44-3.68), and 1.60 (1.06-2.42), respectively, with a graded relationship between frequency of occurrence of ST-T abnormalities and mortality risk (linear trend, P≤.007).ConclusionsPersistent, minor, nonspecific ST-T abnormalities are associated with increased long-term risk of mortality due to MI, CHD, CVD, and all causes; the higher the frequency of occurrence of minor ST-T abnormalities, the greater the risk. These data underscore the potential value of including nonspecific ECG findings in the overall assessment of cardiovascular risk.

A four-year trial assessed whether less severe hypertensives could discontinue antihypertensive drug therapy, using nutritional means to control blood pressure. Randomization was to three groups: group 1—discontinue drug therapy and reduce overweight, excess salt, and alcohol; group 2—discontinue drug therapy, with no nutritional program; or group 3—continue drug therapy, with no nutritional program. In groups 1 and 2 patients resumed drug therapy if pressure rose to hypertensive levels. Loss of at least 4.5 kg (10+ lb) was maintained by 30% of group 1, with a group mean loss of 1.8 kg (4 lb); sodium intake fell 36% and modest alcohol intake reduction was reported. At four years, 39% in group 1 remained normotensive without drug therapy, compared with 5% in group 2. Study findings demonstrated that nutritional therapy may substitute for drugs in a sizable proportion of hypertensives or, if drugs are still needed, can lessen some unwanted biochemical effects of drug treatment. ( JAMA 1987;257:1484-1491)

• A randomized controlled trial demonstrated the ability of nutritional intervention in place of antihypertensive drugs to maintain blood pressure at normal levels for four years in 39% of less severely hypertensive patients whose blood pressure was previously well controlled by pharmacologic treatment. However, average blood pressures during the trial for patients in the intervention group were higher than those for a comparison group that continued to receive drug therapy throughout the study. Holter monitoring, echocardiography, roentgenography, and electrocardiography done at four years to determine whether blood pressure differences between groups were associated with differences in cardiac status did not indicate any differences in cardiac status favorable to one group compared with the other. Further investigation in larger samples is needed to assess any long-term differences in cardiac status based on such alternate therapies. ( Arch Intern Med 1989;149:661-665)