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This cohort study is a secondary analysis of the VITAL-AF trial and assesses the prevalence and incidence of atrial fibrillation among the trial’s control participants.

ImportanceAscending thoracic aortic disease is an important cause of sudden death in the US, yet most aortic aneurysms are identified incidentally.ObjectiveTo develop and validate a clinical score to estimate ascending aortic diameter.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsUsing an ongoing magnetic resonance imaging substudy of the UK Biobank cohort study, which had enrolled participants from 2006 through 2010, score derivation was performed in 30 018 participants and internal validation in an additional 6681. External validation was performed in 1367 participants from the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) offspring cohort who had undergone computed tomography from 2002 through 2005, and in 50 768 individuals who had undergone transthoracic echocardiography in the Community Care Cohort Project, a retrospective hospital-based cohort of longitudinal primary care patients in the Mass General Brigham (MGB) network between 2001-2018.ExposuresDemographic and clinical variables (11 covariates that would not independently prompt thoracic imaging).Main Outcomes and MeasuresAscending aortic diameter was modeled with hierarchical group least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. Correlation between estimated and measured diameter and performance for identifying diameter 4.0 cm or greater were assessed.ResultsThe 30 018-participant training cohort (52% women), were a median age of 65.1 years (IQR, 58.6-70.6 years). The mean (SD) ascending aortic diameter was 3.04 (0.31) cm for women and 3.32 (0.34) cm for men. A score to estimate ascending aortic diameter explained 28.2% of the variance in aortic diameter in the UK Biobank validation cohort (95% CI, 26.4%-30.0%), 30.8% in the FHS cohort (95% CI, 26.8%-34.9%), and 32.6% in the MGB cohort (95% CI, 31.9%-33.2%). For detecting individuals with an ascending aortic diameter of 4 cm or greater, the score had an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of 0.770 (95% CI, 0.737-0.803) in the UK Biobank, 0.813 (95% CI, 0.772-0.854) in the FHS, and 0.766 (95% CI, 0.757-0.774) in the MGB cohorts, although the model significantly overestimated or underestimated aortic diameter in external validation. Using a fixed-score threshold of 3.537, 9.7 people in UK Biobank, 1.8 in the FHS, and 4.6 in the MGB cohorts would need imaging to confirm 1 individual with an ascending aortic diameter of 4 cm or greater. The sensitivity at that threshold was 8.9% in the UK Biobank, 11.3% in the FHS, and 18.8% in the MGB cohorts, with specificities of 98.1%, 99.2%, and 96.2%, respectively.Conclusions and RelevanceA prediction model based on common clinically available data was derived and validated to predict ascending aortic diameter. Further research is needed to optimize the prediction model and to determine whether its use is associated with improved outcomes.

IMPORTANCE: Pathogenic variants associated with inherited cardiomyopathy are recognized as important and clinically actionable when identified, leading some clinicians to recommend population-wide genomic screening. OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence and clinical importance of pathogenic variants associated with inherited cardiomyopathy within the context of contemporary clinical care. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This was a genetic association study of participants in Atherosclerosis in Risk Communities (ARIC), recruited from 1987 to 1989, with median follow-up of 27 years, and the UK Biobank, recruited from 2006 to 2010, with median follow-up of 10 years. ARIC participants were recruited from 4 sites across the US. UK Biobank participants were recruited from 22 sites across the UK. Participants in the US were of African and European ancestry; those in the UK were of African, East Asian, South Asian, and European ancestry. Statistical analyses were performed between August 1, 2021, and February 9, 2022. EXPOSURES: Rare genetic variants predisposing to inherited cardiomyopathy. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Pathogenicity of observed DNA sequence variants in sequenced exomes of 13 genes (ACTC1, FLNC, GLA, LMNA, MYBPC3, MYH7, MYL2, MYL3, PRKAG2, TNNI3, TNNT2, TPM1, and TTN) associated with inherited cardiomyopathies were classified by a blinded clinical geneticist per American College of Medical Genetics recommendations. Incidence of all-cause mortality, heart failure, and atrial fibrillation were determined. Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging, echocardiography, and electrocardiogram measures were assessed in a subset of participants. RESULTS: A total of 9667 ARIC participants (mean [SD] age, 54.0 [5.7] years; 4232 women [43.8%]; 2658 African [27.5%] and 7009 European [72.5%] ancestry) and 49 744 UK Biobank participants (mean [SD] age, 57.1 [8.0] years; 27 142 women [54.5%]; 1006 African [2.0%], 173 East Asian [0.3%], 939 South Asian [1.9%], and 46 449 European [93.4%] European ancestry) were included in the study. Of those, 59 participants (0.61%) in ARIC and 364 participants (0.73%) in UK Biobank harbored an actionable pathogenic or likely pathogenic variant associated with dilated or hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. Carriers of these variants were not reliably identifiable by imaging. However, the presence of these variants was associated with increased risk of heart failure (hazard ratio [HR], 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1-2.8), atrial fibrillation (HR, 2.9; 95% CI, 1.9-4.5), and all-cause mortality (HR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.1-2.2) in ARIC. Similar risk patterns were observed in the UK Biobank. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Results of this genetic association study suggest that approximately 0.7% of study participants harbored a pathogenic variant associated with inherited cardiomyopathy. These variant carriers would be challenging to identify within clinical practice without genetic testing but are at increased risk for cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality.

IMPORTANCE: Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is a leading cause of sudden cardiac death in young people. Although rare genetic variants are well-established contributors to HCM risk, common genetic variants have recently been implicated in disease pathogenesis. OBJECTIVE: To assess the contributions of rare and common genetic variation to risk of HCM in the general population. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cohort study of the UK Biobank (data from 2006-2010) and the Mass General Brigham Biobank (2010-2019) assessed the relative and joint contributions of rare genetic variants and a common variant (polygenic) score to risk of HCM. Both rare and common variant predictors were then evaluated in the context of relevant clinical risk factors. Data analysis was conducted from May 2021 to February 2022. EXPOSURES: Pathogenic rare variants, common-variant (polygenic) score, and clinical risk factors. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Risk of HCM. RESULTS: The primary study population comprised 184 511 individuals from the UK Biobank. Mean (SD) age was 56 (8) years, 83 690 (45%) of participants were men, and 204 (0.1%) participants had HCM. Of 51 genes included in clinical genetic testing panels for HCM, pathogenic or likely pathogenic variants in 14 core genes (designated by the American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics [ACMG]) were associated with 55-fold higher odds (95% CI, 35-83) of HCM, while those in the remaining 37 non-ACMG genes were not significantly associated with HCM (OR, 1.8; 95% CI, 0.6-4.0). ClinVar pathogenic or likely pathogenic mutations in MYBPC3 (OR, 72; 95% CI, 39-124) and MYH7 (OR, 61; 95% CI, 26-121) were strongly associated with HCM, as were loss-of-function variants in ALPK3 (OR, 13; 95% CI, 4.4-28). A polygenic score was strongly associated with HCM (OR per SD increase in score, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.4-1.8), with concordant results in the Mass General Brigham Biobank. Genetic factors enhanced clinical risk prediction for HCM: addition of rare variant carrier status and the polygenic score to clinical risk factors (obesity, hypertension, atrial fibrillation, and coronary artery disease) improved the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve from 0.71 (95% CI, 0.65-0.77) to 0.82 (95% CI, 0.77-0.87). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Both rare and common genetic variants contribute substantially to HCM susceptibility in the general population and improve HCM risk prediction beyond that achieved with clinical factors.

Familial hypercholesterolemia variants impair clearance of cholesterol from the circulation and increase risk of coronary artery disease (CAD). The extent to which adherence to a healthy lifestyle is associated with a lower risk of CAD in carriers and noncarriers of variants warrants further study.To assess the association of the interaction between familial hypercholesterolemia variants and adherence to a healthy lifestyle with risk of CAD.This cross-sectional study used 2 independent data sets with gene sequencing and lifestyle data from the UK Biobank: a case-control study of 4896 cases and 5279 controls and a cohort study of 39 920 participants. Participants were recruited from 22 sites across the UK between March 21, 2006, and October 1, 2010. The case-control study included participants with CAD and controls at enrollment. The cohort study used a convenience sample of individuals with available gene sequencing data. Statistical analysis was performed from April 2, 2019, to January 20, 2022.Pathogenic or likely pathogenic DNA variants classified by a clinical laboratory geneticist and adherence to a healthy lifestyle based on a 4-point scoring system (1 point for each of the following: healthy diet, regular exercise, not smoking, and absence of obesity).Coronary artery disease, defined as myocardial infarction in the case-control study, and myocardial infarction, ischemic heart disease, or coronary revascularization procedure in the cohort study.The case-control study included 10 175 participants (6828 men [67.1%]; mean [SD] age, 58.6 [7.2] years), and the cohort study included 39 920 participants (18 802 men [47.1%]; mean [SD] age at the end of follow-up, 66.4 [8.0] years). A variant was identified in 35 of 4896 cases (0.7%) and 12 of 5279 controls (0.2%), corresponding to an odds ratio of 3.0 (95% CI, 1.6-5.9), and a variant was identified in 108 individuals (0.3%) in the cohort study, in which the hazard ratio for CAD was 3.8 (95% CI, 2.5-5.8). However, this risk appeared to vary according to lifestyle categories in both carriers and noncarriers of familial hypercholesterolemia variants, without a significant interaction between carrier status and lifestyle (odds ratio, 1.2 [95% CI, 0.6-2.5]; P = .62). Among carriers, a favorable lifestyle conferred 86% lower risk of CAD compared with an unfavorable lifestyle (hazard ratio, 0.14 [95% CI, 0.04-0.41]). The estimated risk of CAD by the age of 75 years varied according to lifestyle, ranging from 10.2% among noncarriers with a favorable lifestyle to 24.0% among noncarriers with an unfavorable lifestyle and ranging from 34.5% among carriers with a favorable lifestyle to 66.2% among carriers with an unfavorable lifestyle.This study suggests that, among carriers and noncarriers of a familial hypercholesterolemia variant, significant gradients in risk of CAD are noted according to adherence to a healthy lifestyle pattern. Similar to the general population, individuals who carry familial hypercholesterolemia variants are likely to benefit from lifestyle interventions to reduce their risk of CAD.

Importance Although rare variants in cardiac ion channels, transcription factors, and myocardial structural proteins are associated with early-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) in White individuals of European descent, it remains unclear whether genetic variation also contributes to the cause of AF in those of minority ethnicity. Objectives To assess the prevalence of rare and novel pathogenic variants in candidate genes in ethnic minority probands with early-onset AF and determine genotype-phenotype associations. Design, setting, and participants In this cohort, family-based study, probands of African and Hispanic descent with early-onset AF (defined as AF occurring in individuals aged ≤66 years) prospectively enrolled in a clinical and genetic biorepository underwent sequencing of 60 candidate genes. Recruitment took place from July 1, 2015, to June 30, 2019. Data were analyzed from February 1 to February 28, 2020. Exposures Rare and novel variants categorized as pathogenic or likely pathogenic. Main outcomes and measures The prevalence of rare and novel pathogenic variants in African American and Hispanic/Latinx probands with early-onset AF and genotype-phenotype associations. Results Among 227 probands with early-onset AF, mean (SD) age at onset of AF was 51.0 (9.9) years, 132 probands (58.1%) were men, 148 (65.2%) were African American, and 79 (34.8%) were Hispanic/Latinx. A family history of AF was verified in 24 probands with early-onset AF (10.6%). Sequencing 60 candidate genes identified 53 (23 rare and 30 novel) variants with 16 of the 227 (7.0%) probands harboring likely pathogenic (43.8%) or pathogenic (56.2%) variants, with most loss-of-function variants in TTN, the gene encoding the sarcomeric protein titin (46.7%). In 6 families with more than 2 affected members, variants of unknown significance in sodium channel (SCN10A), potassium channel (KCNE5), sarcomeric proteins (MYH6 and TTN), and atrial natriuretic peptide (NPPA) cosegregated with AF. Conclusions and relevance In this study, likely pathogenic and pathogenic variants were identified, with most loss-of-function variants in TTN, that increase susceptibility to early-onset AF in African American and Hispanic/Latinx individuals. These findings provide further understanding toward molecular phenotyping of AF and suggest novel mechanism-based therapeutic approaches for this common arrhythmia in ethnic minority groups.

Importance Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia affecting 1% of the population. Young individuals with AF have a strong genetic association with the disease, but the mechanisms remain incompletely understood. Objective To perform large-scale whole-genome sequencing to identify genetic variants related to AF. Design, setting, and participants The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute's Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine Program includes longitudinal and cohort studies that underwent high-depth whole-genome sequencing between 2014 and 2017 in 18 526 individuals from the United States, Mexico, Puerto Rico, Costa Rica, Barbados, and Samoa. This case-control study included 2781 patients with early-onset AF from 9 studies and identified 4959 controls of European ancestry from the remaining participants. Results were replicated in the UK Biobank (346 546 participants) and the MyCode Study (42 782 participants). Exposures Loss-of-function (LOF) variants in genes at AF loci and common genetic variation across the whole genome. Main outcomes and measures Early-onset AF (defined as AF onset in persons Results Among 2781 participants with early-onset AF (the case group), 72.1% were men, and the mean (SD) age of AF onset was 48.7 (10.2) years. Participants underwent whole-genome sequencing at a mean depth of 37.8 fold and mean genome coverage of 99.1%. At least 1 LOF variant in TTN, the gene encoding the sarcomeric protein titin, was present in 2.1% of case participants compared with 1.1% in control participants (odds ratio [OR], 1.76 [95% CI, 1.04-2.97]). The proportion of individuals with early-onset AF who carried a LOF variant in TTN increased with an earlier age of AF onset (P value for trend, 4.92 × 10-4), and 6.5% of individuals with AF onset prior to age 30 carried a TTN LOF variant (OR, 5.94 [95% CI, 2.64-13.35]; P = 1.65 × 10-5). The association between TTN LOF variants and AF was replicated in an independent study of 1582 patients with early-onset AF (cases) and 41 200 control participants (OR, 2.16 [95% CI, 1.19-3.92]; P = .01). Conclusions and relevance In a case-control study, there was a statistically significant association between an LOF variant in the TTN gene and early-onset AF, with the variant present in a small percentage of participants with early-onset AF (the case group). Further research is necessary to understand whether this is a causal relationship.

Importance Atrial fibrillation (AF) contributes to substantial morbidity, mortality, and health care expenditures. Accurate prediction of incident AF would enhance AF management and potentially improve patient outcomes. Objective To validate the AF risk prediction model originally developed by the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology–Atrial Fibrillation (CHARGE-AF) investigators using a large repository of electronic medical records (EMRs). Design, Setting, and Participants In this prediction model study, deidentified EMRs of 33 494 individuals 40 years or older who were white or African American and had no history of AF were reviewed and analyzed. The participants were followed up in the internal medicine outpatient clinics at Vanderbilt University Medical Center for incident AF from December 31, 2005, until December 31, 2010. Adjusting for differences in baseline hazard, the CHARGE-AF Cox proportional hazards model regression coefficients were applied to the EMR cohort. A simple version of the model with no echocardiographic variables was also evaluated. Data were analyzed from October 31, 2013, to January 31, 2014. Main Outcomes and Measures Incident AF. Predictors in the model included age, race, height, weight, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, treatment for hypertension, smoking status, type 2 diabetes, heart failure, history of myocardial infarction, left ventricular hypertrophy, and PR interval. Results Among the 33 494 participants, the median age was 57 (interquartile range, 49-67) years; 57% of patients were women, 43% were men, 85.7% were white, and 14.3% were African American. During the mean (SD) follow-up of 4.8 (0.9) years, 2455 individuals (7.3%) developed AF. Both models had poor calibration in the EMR cohort, with underprediction of AF among low-risk individuals and overprediction of AF among high-risk individuals (10th and 90th percentiles for predicted probability of incident AF, 0.005 and 0.179, respectively). The full CHARGE-AF model had a C index of 0.708 (95% CI, 0.699-0.718) in our cohort. The simple model had similar discrimination (C index, 0.709; 95% CI, 0.699-0.718; P = .70 for difference between models). Conclusions and Relevance Despite reasonable discrimination, the CHARGE-AF models showed poor calibration in this EMR cohort. This study highlights the difficulties of applying a risk model derived from prospective cohort studies to an EMR cohort and suggests that these AF risk prediction models be used with caution in the EMR setting. Future risk models may need to be developed and validated within EMR cohorts.

CONTEXT: Although the heritability of atrial fibrillation (AF) is established, the contribution of familial AF to predicting new-onset AF remains unknown.OBJECTIVE: To determine whether familial occurrence of AF is associated with new-onset AF beyond established risk factors.DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The Framingham Heart Study, a prospective community-based cohort study started in 1948. Original and Offspring Cohort participants were aged at least 30 years, were free of AF at the baseline examination, and had at least 1 parent or sibling enrolled in the study. The 4421 participants in this analysis (mean age, 54 [SD, 13] years; 54% women) were followed up through December 31, 2007.MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incremental predictive value of incorporating different features of familial AF (any familial AF, premature familial AF [onset ≤65 years old], number of affected relatives, and youngest age of onset in a relative) into a risk model for new-onset AF.RESULTS: Across 11,971 examinations during the period 1968-2007, 440 participants developed AF. Familial AF occurred among 1185 participants (26.8%) and premature familial AF occurred among 351 participants (7.9%). Atrial fibrillation occurred more frequently among participants with familial AF than without familial AF (unadjusted absolute event rates of 5.8% and 3.1%, respectively). The association was not attenuated by adjustment for AF risk factors (multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio, 1.40; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13-1.74) or reported AF-related genetic variants. Among the different features of familial AF examined, premature familial AF was associated with improved discrimination beyond traditional risk factors to the greatest extent (traditional risk factors, C statistic, 0.842 [95% CI, 0.826-0.858]; premature familial AF, C statistic, 0.846 [95% CI, 0.831-0.862]; P = .004). Modest changes in integrated discrimination improvement were observed with premature familial AF (2.1%). Net reclassification improvement (assessed using 8-year risk thresholds of 10%) did not change significantly with premature familial AF (index statistic, 0.011; 95% CI, -0.021 to 0.042; P = .51), although categoryless net reclassification was improved (index statistic, 0.127; 95% CI, 0.064-0.189; P = .009).CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort, familial AF was associated with an increased risk of AF that was not attenuated by adjustment for AF risk factors including genetic variants. Assessment of premature familial AF was associated with a very slight increase in predictive accuracy compared with traditional risk factors.