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The first global objective climatology of tropical plumes (TPs), obtained from a novel algorithm based on gridded 10.8-μm brightness temperatures Tb, is presented for 1983-2006. TPs are defined as continuous cloud bands (>2000 km) crossing 15°N or 15°S with Tb anomalies of less than −20 K and a lifetime of at least 3 h. A minimum length-to-width ratio of 3 filters out elongated features. Numbers of identified TPs are sensitive to the chosen thresholds but not their geographical distribution and seasonal cycle. TPs are an important indicator of tropical-extratropical interactions with impacts on radiation and moisture. TP occurrence during boreal winter is largely confined to oceanic regions with main maxima over the South Pacific and South Atlantic as well as the eastern North Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The geographical distribution during boreal summer is similar, but with lower frequencies, except for monsoon-influenced regions. Interannual variations over the Indo-Pacific region are strongly related to El Niño. TPs often develop downstream of extratropical upper-level troughs propagating into low latitudes, particularly over the wintertime eastern North Pacific and North Atlantic, but also in regions where mean upper-level easterlies do not generally favor equatorward Rossby wave propagation. Synoptic-scale variations in the quasi-permanent cloud bands associated with the South Pacific and South Atlantic convergence zones frequently produce TP-like anomalies, which are climatologically associated with downstream upper-level troughs. Some regions also feature TPs associated with mesoscale tropical disturbances. The new TP algorithm will serve as a basis for more in-depth studies in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A linear trend calculated for observed annual mean surface air temperatures over the United States for the second-half of the twentieth century shows a slight cooling over the southeastern part of the country, the so-called warming hole, while temperatures over the rest of the country rose significantly. This east-west gradient of average temperature change has contributed to the observed pattern of changes of record temperatures as given by the ratio of daily record high temperatures to record low temperatures with a comparable east-west gradient. Ensemble averages of twentieth-century climate simulations in the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3), show a slight west-east warming gradient but no warming hole. A warming hole appears in only several ensemble members in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multimodel dataset and in one ensemble member of simulated twentieth-century climate in CCSM3. In this model the warming hole is produced mostly from internal decadal time-scale variability originating mainly from the equatorial central Pacific associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Analyses of a long control run of the coupled model, and specified convective heating anomaly experiments in the atmosphere-only version of the model, trace the forcing of the warming hole to positive convective heating anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean near the date line. Cold-air advection into the southeastern United States in winter, and low-level moisture convergence in that region in summer, contribute most to the warming hole in those seasons. Projections show a disappearance of the warming hole, but ongoing greater surface temperature increases in the western United States compared to the eastern United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A procedure is described to estimate bias errors for mean precipitation by using multiple estimates from different algorithms, satellite sources, and merged products. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly product is used as a base precipitation estimate, with other input products included when they are within ±50%% of the GPCP estimates on a zonal-mean basis (ocean and land separately). The standard deviation σ of the included products is then taken to be the estimated systematic, or bias, error. The results allow one to examine monthly climatologies and the annual climatology, producing maps of estimated bias errors, zonal-mean errors, and estimated errors over large areas such as ocean and land for both the tropics and the globe. For ocean areas, where there is the largest question as to absolute magnitude of precipitation, the analysis shows spatial variations in the estimated bias errors, indicating areas where one should have more or less confidence in the mean precipitation estimates. In the tropics, relative bias error estimates ( σ/ μ, where μ is the mean precipitation) over the eastern Pacific Ocean are as large as 20%%, as compared with 10%%-15%% in the western Pacific part of the ITCZ. An examination of latitudinal differences over ocean clearly shows an increase in estimated bias error at higher latitudes, reaching up to 50%%. Over land, the error estimates also locate regions of potential problems in the tropics and larger cold-season errors at high latitudes that are due to snow. An empirical technique to area average the gridded errors ( σ) is described that allows one to make error estimates for arbitrary areas and for the tropics and the globe (land and ocean separately, and combined). Over the tropics this calculation leads to a relative error estimate for tropical land and ocean combined of 7%%, which is considered to be an upper bound because of the lack of sign-of-the-error canceling when integrating over different areas with a different number of input products. For the globe the calculated relative error estimate from this study is about 9%%, which is also probably a slight overestimate. These tropical and global estimated bias errors provide one estimate of the current state of knowledge of the planet's mean precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The behavior and various controls of diurnal variability in tropical–subtropical rainfall are investigated using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation measurements retrieved from the three level-2 TRMM standard profile algorithms for the 1998 annual cycle. Results show that diurnal variability characteristics of precipitation are consistent for all three algorithms, providing assurance that TRMM retrievals are producing consistent estimates of rainfall variability. As anticipated, most ocean areas exhibit more rainfall at night, while over most land areas, rainfall peaks during daytime; however, important exceptions are noted. The dominant feature of the oceanic diurnal cycle is a rainfall maximum in late-evening–early-morning (LE–EM) hours, while over land the dominant maximum occurs in the mid- to late afternoon (MLA). In conjunction with these maxima are pronounced seasonal variations of the diurnal amplitudes. Amplitude analysis shows that the diurnal pattern and its seasonal evolution are closely related to the rainfall accumulation pattern and its seasonal evolution. In addition, the horizontal distribution of diurnal variability indicates that for oceanic rainfall, there is a secondary MLA maximum coexisting with the LE–EM maximum at latitudes dominated by large-scale convergence and deep convection. Analogously, there is a preponderancy for an LE–EM maximum over land coexisting with the stronger MLA maximum, although it is not evident that this secondary continental feature is closely associated with the large-scale circulation. Neither of the secondary maxima exhibit phase behavior that can be considered semidiurnal in nature. Diurnal rainfall variability over the ocean associated with large-scale convection is clearly an integral component of the general circulation. Phase analysis reveals differences in regional and seasonal features of the diurnal cycle, indicating that underlying forcing mechanisms differ from place to place. This is underscored by the appearance of secondary ocean maxima in the presence of large-scale convection, along with other important features. Among these, there are clear-cut differences between the diurnal variability of seasonal rainfall over the mid-Pacific and Indian Ocean Basins. The mid-Pacific exhibits double maxima in spring and winter but only LE–EM maxima in summer and autumn, while the Indian Ocean exhibits double maxima in spring and summer and only an LE–EM maximum in autumn and winter. There are also evident daytime maxima within the major large-scale marine stratocumulus regions off the west coasts of continents. The study concludes with a discussion concerning how the observational evidence either supports or repudiates possible forcing mechanisms that have been suggested to explain diurnal rainfall variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A time-dependent trajectory algorithm is used to determine the sources of the Pacific Ocean Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) in a global climate model with ¼° (eddy permitting) resolution and forced with realistic winds. The primary sources and pathways are identified, and the transformation of properties in temperature/salinity space is explored. An estimate for the quantity of recirculation, a notoriously difficult property to estimate from observational data, is given. Over two-thirds of the water in the Pacific EUC at 140°W originates south of the equator; 70% of the EUC is ventilated outside of the Tropics (poleward of 13°S or 10°N): three-quarters of these extratropical trajectories travel through the western boundary currents between their subduction and incorporation into the EUC, and one-fifth of the extratropical trajectories enter and leave the tropical band at least once before entering the EUC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Kalman filter is the optimal linear assimilation scheme only if the first- and second-order statistics of the observational and system noise are correctly specified. If not, optimality can be reached in principle by using an adaptive filter that estimates both the state vector and the system error statistics. In this study, the authors compare the ability of three adaptive assimilation schemes at estimating an unbiased, stationary system noise. The adaptive algorithms are implemented in a reduced space linear model for the tropical Pacific. Using a twin experiment approach, the algorithms are compared by assimilating sea level data at fixed locations mimicking the tropical Pacific tide gauges network. It is shown that the description of the system error covariance matrix requires too many parameters for the adaptive problem to be well posed. However, the adaptive procedures are efficient if the number of noise parameters is dramatically reduced and their performance is shown to be closed to optimal, that is, based on the true system noise covariance. The link between those procedures is elucidated, and the question of their applicability and respective computational cost is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]