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Numerical weather prediction (NWP), when accessible, is a crucial input to short-term solar power forecasting. WRF-Solar, the first NWP model specifically designed for solar energy applications, has shown promising predictive capability. Nevertheless, few attempts have been made to investigate its performance under high aerosol loading, which attenuates incoming radiation significantly. The North China Plain is a polluted region due to industrialization, which constitutes a proper testbed for such investigation. In this paper, aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE) on three surface shortwave radiation components (i.e., global, beam, and diffuse) during five heavy pollution episodes is studied within the WRF-Solar framework. Results show that WRF-Solar overestimates instantaneous beam radiation up to 795.3 W m−2 when the aerosol DRE is not considered. Although such overestimation can be partially offset by an underestimation of the diffuse radiation of about 194.5 W m−2, the overestimation of the global radiation still reaches 160.2 W m−2. This undesirable bias can be reduced when WRF-Solar is powered by Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) aerosol forecasts, which then translates to accuracy improvements in photovoltaic (PV) power forecasts. This work also compares the forecast performance of the CAMS-powered WRF-Solar with that of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model. Under high aerosol loading conditions, the irradiance forecast accuracy generated by WRF-Solar increased by 53.2% and the PV power forecast accuracy increased by 6.8%. Significance Statement: Numerical weather prediction (NWP) is the "go-to" approach for achieving high-performance day-ahead solar power forecasting. Integrating time-varying aerosol forecasts into NWP models effectively captures aerosol direct radiation effects, thereby enhancing the accuracy of solar irradiance forecasts in heavily polluted regions. This work not only quantifies the aerosol effects on global, beam, and diffuse irradiance but also reveals the physical mechanisms of irradiance-to-power conversion by constructing a model chain. Using the North China Plain as a testbed, the performance of WRF-Solar on solar power forecasting on five severe pollution days is analyzed. This version of WRF-Solar can outperform the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model, confirming the need for generating high spatial–temporal NWP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The southwest vortex (SWV) is a critical weather system in China, but our knowledge of this system remains incomplete. Here, we investigate the cloud properties in the SWV. First, we search for the SWVs with time steps and center locations that are consistent between the SWV yearbook and ERA-Interim reanalysis data. Second, we supplement these SWVs' life spans and movement paths. Third, we relocate the Fengyun (FY) satellite FY-4A cloud retrievals in the 10° × 10° region centered on each SWV and analyze the cloud occurrence frequency (COF), cloud-top height (CTH), and cloud optical thickness (COT). A distribution mode of cloud types is summarized from the COFs, with water clouds, supercooled clouds, mixed clouds, ice clouds, cirrus clouds, and overlap clouds occurring sequentially from west to east. The CTH probability density (PD) distribution features a significant north–south difference. In addition, the COT PD distributions exhibit a common trend: with increasing COT, the PD increases rapidly and then slowly before peaking, whereupon the PD decreases abruptly. From spring to summer, the region with the highest convective COF shifts from the northeast to the northwest, and an east–west gradient of the convective COF appears in autumn and winter. Furthermore, we investigate the cloud properties during SWV-related heavy rainfall. Heavy rain occurs mainly in the west of the SWV, and convective clouds are mainly in the northwest, partly in the southwest and near the SWV center. The average CTH in heavy rainfall is generally higher than 6 km, and the average COT is greater than 20. Significance Statement: The southwest vortex (SWV) is an important weather system in China. However, we do not yet comprehensively know this weather system. The cloud properties can indicate the structures of weather systems and are key parameters in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Thus, investigating cloud properties is necessary and meaningful to understand the SWV and accurately predict SWV-related precipitation in NWP models. In this paper, a typical distribution mode of six cloud types in the SWV is summarized from the cloud occurrence frequency, and the distribution features of convective clouds, cloud-top height, and cloud optical thickness in the SWV are analyzed. Furthermore, the cloud properties in SWV-related heavy rain are also studied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a study on long-term surface solar radiation (SSR) changes over China under clear- and all-sky conditions and analyzes the causes of the "dimming" and "brightening." To eliminate the nonclimatic signals in the historical records, the daily SSR dataset was first homogenized using quantile-matching (QM) adjustment. The results reveal rapid dimming before 2000 not only under all-sky conditions, but also under clear-sky conditions, at a decline rate of −9.7 ± 0.4 W m−2 decade−1 (1958–99). This is slightly stronger than that under all-sky conditions at −7.4 ± 0.4 W m−2 decade−1, since the clear-sky dimming stopped 15 years later. A rapid "wettening" of about 40-Pa surface water vapor pressure (SWVP) from 1985 to 2000 was found over China. It contributed 2.2% to the SSR decline under clear-sky conditions during the whole dimming period (1958–99). Therefore, water vapor cannot be the main cause of the long-term dimming in China. After a stable decade (1999–2008), an intensive brightening appeared under the clear-sky conditions at a rate of 10.6 ± 2.0 W m−2 decade−1, whereas a much weaker brightening (−0.8 ± 3.1 W m−2 decade−1) has been observed under all-sky conditions between 2008 and 2016. The remarkable divergence between clear- and all-sky trends in recent decades indicates that the clouds played two opposite roles in the SSR changes during the past 30 years, by compensating for the declining SSR under the cloud-free conditions in 1985–99 and by counteracting the increasing SSR under cloud-free conditions in 2008–16. Aerosols remain as the main cause of dimming and brightening over China in the last 60 years, although the clouds counteract the effects of aerosols after 2000. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a method to homogenize China's surface solar radiation (SSR) data and uses the resulting homogenized SSR data to assess the SSR trend over the period 1958-2016. Neighboring surface sunshine duration (SSD) data are used as reference data to assess the SSR data homogeneity. A principal component analysis is applied to build a reference series, which is proven to be less sensitive to occasional data issues than using the arithmetic mean of data from adjacent stations. A relative or absolute test is applied to detect changepoints, depending on whether or not a suitable reference series is available. A quantile-matching method is used to adjust the data to diminish the inhomogeneities. As a result, 60 out of the 119 SSR stations were found to have inhomogeneity issues. These were mainly caused by changes in instrument and observation schedule. The nonclimatic changes exaggerated the SSR change rates in 1991-93 and resulted in a sudden rise in the national average SSR series, causing an unrealistically drastic trend reversal in the 1990s. This was diminished by the data homogenization. The homogenized data show that the national average SSR has been declining significantly over the period 1958-90; this dimming trend mostly diminished over the period 1991-2005 and was replaced by a brightening trend in the recent decade. From the homogenized SSR data, the 1958-90 and 1958-2005 dimming rate is estimated to be -6.13 ± 0.47 and -5.08 ± 0.27W m-2 decade-1, respectively, and the 2005-16 brightening rate is 6.13 ± 1.77W m-2 decade-1. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the relationship between the 1000-850-hPa layer perturbation potential energy (LPPE) as the difference in local potential energy between the actual state and the reference state and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) using reanalysis and observational datasets. The EASM is closely related to the first-order moment term of LPPE (LPPE1) from the preceding March to the boreal summer over three key regions: the eastern Indian Ocean, the subtropical central Pacific, and midlatitude East Asia. The LPPE1 pattern (−, +, +), with negative values over the eastern Indian Ocean, positive values over the subtropical central Pacific, and positive values over East Asia, corresponds to negative LPPE1 anomalies over the south of the EASM region but positive LPPE1 anomalies over the north of the EASM region, which lead to an anomalous downward branch over the southern region but an upward branch over the northern region. The anomalous vertical motion affects the local meridional circulation over East Asia that leads to a southwesterly wind anomaly over East Asia (south of 30°N) at 850 hPa and anomalous downward motion over 100°-120°E (along 25°-35°N), resulting in a stronger EASM, more kinetic energy over the EASM region, and less boreal summer rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (24°-36°N, 90°-125°E). These LPPE1 anomalies in the eastern Indian Ocean and subtropical central Pacific appear to be connected to changes in local sea surface temperature through the release of latent heat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) predictions, which bridge the gap between weather forecasts and climate outlooks, have the great societal benefits of improving water resource management and food security. However, there are tremendous disparities in the forecasting skills of subseasonal precipitation prediction products. This study investigates the spatiotemporal variations in the precipitation forecasting skill of three subseasonal prediction products from the CMA, ECMWF, and NCEP over China. Daily precipitation predictions with lead times ranging from 1 to 30 days and cumulative precipitation predictions over 1-30 days were evaluated in nine major river basins. The daily prediction skill rapidly declines with lead time. In contrast, the correlation coefficient between the cumulative precipitation predictions and corresponding observations increases at first and peaks at 0.7-0.8 after 3-5 days, then gradually decreases and settles at approximately 0.2-0.6. Among the three evaluated models, the ECMWF model demonstrates the best skill, maintaining a correlation coefficient of approximately 0.5 for 2-week cumulative precipitation. Moreover, the correlation coefficient of the model's prediction is 0.2-0.5 higher than that of the climatological prediction over a large domain for the 30-day cumulative precipitation during the rainy summer. Similarly, the equitable threat score for forecasting below- and above-normal precipitation events presents good results in eastern China but is affected by biases of raw predictions. The variations in the subseasonal prediction skill at different time scales reveal the potential values of cumulative precipitation predictions. The findings of this study can provide practical information for applications that prioritize the long-term aggregation of hydrometeorological variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines variations of the surface air temperature (SAT) over China and the globe in the twentieth century simulated by 19 coupled climate models driven by historical natural and anthropogenic forcings. Most models perform well in simulating both the global and the Northern Hemispheric mean SAT evolutions of the twentieth century. The inclusion of natural forcings improves the simulation, in particular for the first half of the century. The reproducibility of the SAT averaged over China is lower than that of the global and hemispheric averages, but it is still acceptable. The contribution of natural forcings to the SAT over China in the first half of the century is not as robust as that to the global and hemispheric averages. No model could successfully produce the reconstructed warming over China in the 1920s. The prescribed natural and anthropogenic forcings in the coupled climate models mainly produce the warming trends and the decadal- to interdecadal-scale SAT variations with poor performances at shorter time scales. The prominent warming trend in the last half of the century over China and its acceleration in recent decades are weakly simulated. There are discrepancies between the simulated and observed regional features of the SAT trend over China. Few models could produce the summertime cooling over the middle part of eastern China (27°–36°N), while two models acceptably produce the meridional gradients of the wintertime warming trends, with north China experiencing larger warming. Limitations of the current state-of-the-art coupled climate models in simulating spatial patterns of the twentieth-century SAT over China cast a shadow upon their capability toward projecting credible geographical distributions of future climate change through Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenario simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study first investigates the interannual variations in spring precipitation intraseasonal variability over southern China (SC). The results show that SC spring precipitation exhibits distinct intraseasonal variations with a period of 7–25 days. The first mode of 7–25-day precipitation intraseasonal variability (PIV) displays a monopole pattern over SC, and the PIV magnitude is largely determined by the upward motion intensity during intraseasonal precipitation events. Further analysis suggests that two atmospheric wave trains are observed during intraseasonal precipitation events, which propagate eastward from the North Atlantic along the northern and southern paths. In strong PIV years, the two wave trains can propagate to East Asia and show coordinated influences. The resultant low pressure to the west of SC causes strong upward motion and PIV over SC by bringing strong zonal vorticity and meridional temperature advection. In weak PIV years, the southern wave train can only propagate to the Bay of Bengal; therefore, the northern wave train plays a major role. The resultant low pressure is now over the upper to middle reaches of the Yangtze River, which causes relatively weak upward motion and PIV over SC by bringing weak meridional vorticity and temperature advection. Further analysis indicates that the sea surface temperature (SST) condition over the tropical Indian Ocean and the South China Sea is essential for southern wave train propagation. The warming SST over the regions can intensify westerlies to its north and consequently favors the propagation of the southern wave train to SC, eventually contributing to strong PIV over SC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the fast response of East Asian summer precipitation to COVID-19–induced aerosol emission reductions is examined using the Community Earth System Model, version 2.2 (CESM2.2). The emission reductions decreased aerosol optical depth and cloud cover over northern China in June 2020. The troposphere became warmer, strengthening the land–sea thermal contrast and anomalous southerly winds. The subtropical westerly jet accelerated and shifted southward, favoring low-level convergence, upward air motions, and subsequent condensational heating over the Yangtze River basin (YRB). The feedback of condensational heating in return strengthened the convergence and ascent. The western North Pacific subtropical high was intensified, which further enhanced the moisture advection and convergence over the YRB. Both the enhanced moisture convergence and ascent increased precipitation over the YRB during June 2020. Furthermore, local and remote emission reductions show different impacts on convection and moisture transport over the YRB. The emission reductions over China caused stronger convective precipitation (1.15 vs 0.63 mm day-1 ) but weaker larger-scale precipitation (1.17 vs 2.24 mm day-1 ) than the emission reductions outside China. In addition to the emission reductions, the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in 2020 also play an important role in increasing precipitation over the YRB, contributing about 42.8%. The relative contribution of SST anomalies also increases under the COVID-19–induced emission scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of mid–high-latitude intraseasonal variability (ISV) on the occurrence frequency of the Northeast China cold vortex (NCCV) in early summer was examined through statistical analysis and thermal–dynamic diagnostics. A multivariable empirical orthogonal function (MVEOF) was employed to extract the thermal–pressure coupled ISV mode. Our results show that the geopotential height and air temperature over the NCCV active region exhibit a statistically significant intraseasonal periodicity of 20–60 days. The dominant ISV mode features a westward-propagated zonal dipole pattern, which is generated over the Lake Baikal region and triggered by intraseasonal wave energy accumulation. By dividing the ISV cycle into eight phases, it is found that more NCCVs with a large scope occur in phases 5–8 than those in phases 1–4. The positive (negative) geopotential height and air temperature tendencies in phases 1–4 (5–8) act to suppress (facilitate) the NCCV activity. The thermodynamic tendency budget and scale decomposition reveal that when an anomalous intraseasonal cyclonic circulation propagates westward from Lake Baikal to the Ural Mountains, the anomalous southwesterly transports mean negative vorticity from the north side of the Tibetan Plateau to Northeast Asia and transports mean warm air temperature from low latitudes to high latitudes, leading to the positive geopotential height and air temperature tendencies and thereby restraining the NCCV activity. The opposite is also true for the facilitation of the NCCV modulated by the negative geopotential height and air temperature tendencies. Significance Statement: The purpose of this study is to better understand the factors controlling the Northeast China cold vortex (NCCV) activity in early summer. It is important because influences of the subtropical monsoonal circulation are usually confined to southern China in this season and the anomalous atmospheric circulation from the mid–high latitudes plays a more important role in the generation of the NCCV. Our results provide a guide on how intraseasonal variability at mid–high latitudes controls the occurrence frequency of the NCCV and highlight the process of thermal and dynamical modulation in the NCCV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The frequency of large-scale anomalous precipitation events over China has increased during 1961–2018. However, it remains challenging to understand the mechanisms associated with these anomalous events showing different spatial patterns. Here, we applied an autoencoder technique to identify large-scale anomalous precipitation events for both observations and model simulations, which were then classified into several patterns through a self-organizing map method. The synoptic behavior and atmospheric circulation background of different anomalous patterns were also analyzed using simultaneous composite analyses. Results show that occurrences of different anomalous precipitation patterns have increased significantly, except those centered in North China, Northeast China, and the Yangtze River basin. The anomalous precipitation patterns manifest various intraseasonal distributions, which are linked to zonal oscillations of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) and meridional displacements of East Asia westerly jet (EAJ). Accompanied by the westward movement of WNPSH, anticyclonic systems transport warm moist air from the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea to converge with the cold air caused by anomalous cyclones over the northwest flank of the WNPSH, leading to large-scale anomalous precipitation in these regions. Besides WNPSH, the northward and southward displacements of EAJ also favor the occurrence of anomalous precipitation events in northern and southern China, respectively. Our study also illustrates that the occurrence frequency of anomalous precipitation events is projected to increase remarkably under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5 (SSP585) scenario by rates of twofold to fourfold. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the mechanisms of low-latitude intraseasonal oscillations affecting regional persistent extreme precipitation events (RPEPEs) over Southwest China (SWC) during rainy seasons. Most of the RPEPEs over SWC are dominated by 7-20-day variability. The RPEPEs over SWC are preconditioned by two different types of 7-20-day Rossby waves with almost opposite phases over the western North Pacific (WNP). The two types of 7-20-day Rossby waves have direct and indirect effects on type-1 and -2 RPEPEs, respectively. For type 1, a coupled 7-20-day low-level anticyclone and suppressed convection originating from the tropical WNP propagate northwestward and cover the region from the South China Sea (SCS) to the Bay of Bengal before the RPEPEs. The anticyclone triggers ascending motion over SWC and transports more moisture to SWC, favoring the SWC RPEPEs. Before the type-2 RPEPEs, a coupled 7-20-day low-level cyclone and enhanced convection propagates from the tropical WNP to the SCS. The enhanced convection over the SCS leads to the westward extension of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and the eastward shift of the South Asian high (SAH). The variations in the WPSH and the SAH directly cause SWC RPEPEs by inducing ascending motion and transporting moisture. The mechanisms for type-2 RPEPEs tend to work under the background with a strong WPSH. Using a Lagrangian model, we found that both the 7-20-day oscillations and their background atmospheric circulations result in significant differences in moisture sources for the two types of RPEPEs. These findings benefit a better understanding of SWC extreme precipitation events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyses of the standardized precipitation evaporation index (SPEI), using the season-reliant empirical orthogonal function (S-EOF) method, indicate that the second leading mode of drought over Northeast China features an in-phase variation from spring to summer. Such an in-phase change is closely connected to the persistence of geopotential height anomalies around Lake Baikal. The positive height anomalies around Lake Baikal, with an equivalent barotropic structure in the troposphere, can decrease water vapor transport into Northeast China and induce anomalous descending motion over Northeast China during both seasons, favoring precipitation deficit and high temperature in situ and hence resulting in the synchronous variations of spring and summer droughts. Further investigation reveals that the spring North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) plays a notable role in the in-phase change of spring–summer droughts over Northeast China. The positive phase of spring NAO could induce spring drought over Northeast China directly through its influence on the above atmospheric circulations via a zonal wave train emanating from the North Atlantic. Meanwhile, it can also increase the soil moisture in central Siberia by enhancing the local snow depth. The wetter soil moisture in the following summer, in turn, increases the meridional temperature gradient between the middle and high latitudes and then forces westerly anomalies around 60°N, consequently yielding positive height anomalies around Lake Baikal that favor the occurrence of summer drought over Northeast China. Therefore, the spring NAO is hypothesized to contribute to the in-phase variations of spring–summer droughts over Northeast China through the combined roles of zonal wave train and central Siberian soil moisture. Significance Statement: Northeast China suffers from frequent droughts severely in recent decades. Thus, it is urgent to understand the physical mechanisms of drought in Northeast China. Using the season-reliant empirical orthogonal function (S-EOF) analysis, this study indicates that the second mode of S-EOF shows an in-phase change of drought from spring to summer over Northeast China, which is associated with the persistence of geopotential height anomalies around Lake Baikal. Our study further reveals that the spring NAO plays a pronounced role in the in-phase change of spring–summer droughts over Northeast China, through the combined roles of zonal wave train and the soil moisture in the central Siberian plateau. These findings are encouraging for better understanding of drought in Northeast China and are also important for disaster prevention and mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation in China is controlled by a combination of multiple weather systems and is susceptible to their spatiotemporal variability under climate warming. Based on the daily precipitation dataset developed by the China Meteorological Administration and ERA5 6-hourly data from 1979 to 2018, we detected tropical cyclones, extratropical cyclones, and fronts affecting mainland China of an altitude less than 1500 m using objective methods and identified their individually associated precipitation. We quantified climatological characteristics of precipitation associated with these three meteorological causes and their proportion of precipitation totals, and evaluated their relative contribution to change in precipitation. Results show that precipitation associated with tropical cyclones (TCP), extratropical cyclones (ETCP), and fronts (FRTP) accounted for 3.0%, 21.2%, and 20.4% of the total precipitation in China, and constituted the largest percentage in August, June, and January, respectively. The total proportion of these three types of precipitation exceeded 50% in more than 55% of China's regions. The high-value regions of corresponding precipitation were directly related to the locations of frequent occurrences of these weather systems. TCP and FRTP increased over the past four decades, while ETCP decreased. The western part of Northeast China and the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River show precipitation decreases, 37.8% of which is contributed by ETCP decreases. Precipitation increased in most regions of China during the dry season, 34.1% of which is contributed by FRTP increases. Among them, Northeast (Northwest) China significantly increased it precipitation by 14.4% decade−1 (21.8% decade−1), 33.6% (51.3%) of which is contributed by FRTP increases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interannual variability in summer precipitation intraseasonal oscillation intensity over southwest China (SWC) is investigated in this study. The results indicate that the 7–20-day period dominates the intraseasonal variability in summer SWC precipitation. The leading mode of summer SWC precipitation 7–20-day oscillation intensity (SPOI) is a north–south dipole pattern with prominent interannual variability. The atmospheric circulation anomalies from both tropics and mid- to high latitudes are responsible for the interannual variability in the dipole pattern. In the tropics, an enhanced local Hadley cell and an anomalous anticyclone over southern China and the northwest Pacific contribute to the north-positive–south-negative pattern of SPOI by inducing moisture convergence (divergence) over northern (southern) SWC in the background state. In the mid- to high latitudes, the 7–20-day Rossby wave trains along the subtropical jet are crucial for the 7–20-day precipitation over northern SWC. Further analyses suggest that the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the Maritime Continent (MC) and the North Atlantic (NA) are associated with the SPOI dipole pattern. The MC SST warming causes convection anomalies over the tropical Indo-Pacific, consequently triggering a Matsuno–Gill-type atmospheric response conducive to the north-positive–south-negative pattern of SPOI. The NA SST tripole triggers a Rossby wave train across Eurasia that strengthens the East Asian westerly jet and enhances 7–20-day atmospheric variability, consequently favoring the variability of 7–20-day precipitation over northern SWC. Diagnoses of moisture and vorticity budgets further indicate the importance of the interaction between intraseasonal fluctuations and atmospheric background in the formation of the north–south difference in 7–20-day precipitation variability over SWC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we used hourly observations to investigate the cooling effect of summer rainfall on surface air temperature (Ta) in a subtropical area, Guangdong province, South China. Data were categorized step-by-step by rainfall system (convection, monsoon, and typhoon), daily rainfall amount, and relative humidity (RH) level. Moreover, the average hourly Ta variation due to solar radiation was removed from all observations before statistical analysis. The results showed that the linear relationship between hourly Ta variation and rainfall intensity did not exist. However, the cooling effect of rainfall on Ta variation was dominant. In addition, convective rainfall does cause a greater temperature drop than the other two rainfall systems. After further partitioning all samples by RH level preceding the rainfall, the relationship between hourly Ta variation and rainfall intensity became distinctive. When RH was below 70%, rainfall-induced cooling became more substantial and scaled linearly with event intensity, but when RH exceeded 70%, the rainfall cooling effect was generally restrained by the RH increase. A strong correlation between hourly Ta variation and RH level preceding the rainfall suggests the importance of RH on the rainfall cooling effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Satellite-based precipitation products are commonly evaluated using gauge measurement, yet their regional evaluation and hydrological applicability have not been sufficiently studied, especially for dry basins. In this study, we evaluated the performance of four state-of-the-art remotely sensed precipitation products (CMORPH, GSMaP, IMERG, and PERSIANN-CDR) and their ensemble products (the reliability ensemble averaging and three-cornered hat methods) over the Heihe River basin, northwest China. Both direct evaluation using gauge measurement during 2001-19 and indirect evaluation using the Soil andWater Assessment Tool (SWAT) model during 2001-10 were conducted. Our results showed that 1) for point-to-pixel evaluation, GSMaP and IMERG products with high spatial resolution effectively captured the quantile distribution of gauge data; 2) compared to the spatially interpolated gauge data, all products underestimated the precipitation, among which GSMaP provided the closest interannual variability to the observations; 3) these products had better detection abilities upstream and during the rainy season, indicating that their performance was affected by the rain intensity-in particular, GSMaP exhibited the best ability; 4) the spatial patterns of individual products were inconsistent, while the ensemble products could reduce the bias with the gauge data; and 5) for hydrological modeling, streamflow simulation driven by GSMaP had the best performance, and the ensemble precipitation using the three-cornered hat method was better than that using the reliability ensemble averaging method. Collectively, these findings illustrated the reliability of GSMaP in representing the precipitation characteristics in similar arid areas and elucidated the advantages of using the three-cornered hat method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Though the use of reanalysis datasets to analyze snow changes is increasingly popular, the snow depth variability in China simulated by multiple reanalysis datasets has not been well evaluated. Also, the extent of regional snow depth variability and its driving mechanisms are still unknown. In this study, monthly snow depth observations from 325 stations during the period of 1981–2018 were taken to evaluate the ability of five reanalysis datasets (JRA-55, MERRA-2, GLDAS2, ERA5, and ERA5L) to simulate the spatial and temporal variability of snow depth in China. The evaluation results indicate that MERRA-2 has the lowest root-mean-square deviation of snow depth and a high spatial correlation coefficient with observations. This may be partly related to the high accuracy of precipitation and temperature in MERRA-2. Also, the 31 combinations of the five reanalysis datasets do not yield better accuracy in snow depth than MERRA-2 alone. This is because the other four datasets have larger uncertainty. Based on MERRA-2, four hot-spot regions with significant snow depth changes from 1981 to 2018 were identified, including the central Xinjiang (XJ-C), the southern part of the northeastern plain and mountain (NPM-S), and the southwestern (TP-SW) and southeastern (TP-SE) portions of the Tibetan Plateau. Snow depth changes mostly occurred in spring in TP-SW and winter in XJ-C, NPM-S, and TP-SE. The snow depth increase in XJ-C, NPM-S, and TP-SW is mainly caused by increased seasonal precipitation, while the snow depth decrease in TP-SE is attributed to the combined effects of decreased precipitation and warming temperature in winter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The planetary boundary layer (PBL) plays an essential role in climate and air quality simulations. Nevertheless, large uncertainties remain in understanding the drivers for long-termtrends of PBL height (PBLH) and its simulation. Herewe combine the radiosonde data and reanalysis datasets to analyze PBLHlong-termtrends over China, and to further explore the performance of CMIP6 climate models in simulating these trends. Results show that the observed long-term "positive-tonegative" trend shift of PBLH is related to the variation in the surface upward sensible heat flux (SHFLX), and the SHFLX is further controlled by the synergistic effect of low cloud cover (LCC) and soil moisture (SM) changes. Variabilities in LCC and SM directly influence the energy balance via surface net downward shortwave flux (SWF) and the latent heat flux (LHFLX), respectively. The CMIP6 climate models, however, cannot reproduce the observed PBLH long-term trend shift over China. The CMIP6 results illustrate an overwhelming continuous downward PBLH trend during the 1979-2014 period, which is largely caused by the poor capability in simulating long-term variations of cloud radiative effect. Our results reveal that the long-term cloud radiative effect simulation is critical for CMIP6 models in reproducing the long-term trend of PBLH. This study highlights the importance of processes associated with LCC and SM in modulating PBLH long-term variations and calls attention to improve these processes in climate models in order to improve the PBLH long-term trend simulations. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Investigating the long-term variations of the planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) is of great importance in understanding the complicated interactions between climate change and the planetary boundary layer. The availability of long-term radiosonde observations, along with reanalysis data and data from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, provides an excellent opportunity for us to analyze the long-term variability of PBLH and explore the capability of global climate models in reproducing the observed trend of PBLH. We argue that variations of cloud cover and soil moisture dominate the long-term variability of PBLH over China, given their key role in modifying the surface energy partition and balance. More importantly, whether cloud processes can be well simulated or not is key to reproducing the observed PBLH variations in global climate models, which merits further process-based observation in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-lived (≥6 days) heatwaves (HWs) have strong social impacts with serious health implications. Using homogenized historical daily temperatures from China and ECMWF reanalysis data, this study investigates its frequency between 1979 and 2018 and driving mechanisms. It is found that the occurrence of HWs is strongly associated with the joint actions of the South Asian high and the western North Pacific subtropical high, which can be described by a synergy index measured by the boundary distance between the two subtropical high pressure systems. When the synergy index is positive, there are more long-lived HWs in the east of the Tibetan Plateau, the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and the southern region in China, and vice versa. A Mann–Kendall test shows a significant interdecadal shift around 2004/05 toward increased occurrence that is consistent with enhanced subtropical high systems. This study shows the important roles of large-scale dynamic systems in regional climate extremes and their future changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the total days, mean duration, and intensity of extreme hot events over southern China during the 1971–2020 warm seasons are analyzed on the basis of daily maximum and minimum temperatures, by comparing the newly proposed independent hot day (IHD), independent warm night (IWN), and compound extreme (CMPD; i.e., the continuous occurrences of hot days and hot nights) with the traditionally defined hot day and warm night. Relationships between the hot extremes and urbanization are explored with 1-km-resolution population density data. Results show obvious differences in the spatial distributions among IHD, IWN, and CMPD over southern China. Positive correlations of 0.43, 0.41, and 0.37 are found between the population density and the total days, mean duration, and mean intensity of CMPD, respectively, which are qualitatively similar to those using the traditional hot days and warm nights. In contrast, negative correlations between the IHD and IWN indices and the population density are found, because those indices are more apparent over rural areas. Moreover, total days, mean duration, and mean intensity of CMPD increase significantly, with trends of approximately 103%, 21%, and 38% decade−1, respectively, during the rapid urbanization period from the mid-1990s to 2020, which are about 4.9, 2.1, and 2.4 times their counterparts from 1970 to the mid-1990s, and less significant and smaller differences between the two eras are found in IHD and IWN. These results will provide a new scientific basis for evaluating climate models of hot extremes in southern China and have important implications for the other urbanized regions as well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tibetan Plateau (TP), the so-called water tower of Asia, plays an important role in the water cycle. However, few studies have linked the TP's water vapor supply with the climate over North China. In this study, we found that changes in the subtropical westerly jet (SWJ) dynamically induce drought in North China, and the TP plays an important role in this relationship. During July–August for the period of 1981–2019, the SWJ center between 75° and 105°E obviously shifted northward at a rate of 0.04° per year. Correspondingly, the zonal winds in the southern subtropics were incredibly weakened, causing the outflow of water vapor from the TP to decrease dramatically. Combined with numerical simulations, we discovered that a reduction in water vapor transport from the TP can obviously decrease the precipitation over North China. Sensitivity experiments demonstrated that if the water vapor outflow from the eastern border of the TP decreases by 52.74%, the precipitation in North China will decrease by 12.69% due to a decrease in the local cloud fraction caused by a diminished water vapor content in the atmosphere. Therefore, although less water vapor transport occurs in the upper troposphere than in the lower troposphere, the impact of transport from the TP in the former on the downstream precipitation cannot be ignored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropospheric hydrostatic delay is one of the major sources of errors in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) navigation and positioning, and an important parameter in GNSS meteorology. This work first proposes a new method of computing zenith hydrostatic delay (ZHD) based on precipitable water vapor (PWV), using radiosonde data. Next, using these calculations as a reference, the performance of three empirical ZHD models and three ZHD integral models in China is assessed using benchmark values obtained from 8 years (2010–17) of radiosonde data recorded at 75 stations across China. Finally, we provide a new revised ZHD model that can be applied to China and validate its performance using radiosonde data collected in China in 2018. The statistical results indicate that the ZHD can be estimated by this new model with an accuracy of several millimeters. Due to its performance and simplicity, this new model is shown to be the optimal ZHD model for use in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyses of observation data from 1961 to 2014 by using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method indicate that the primary mode (a monosign pattern) of heavy snowfall over northern China in winter shows evident variations from a negative polarity to a positive polarity in the mid-1990s. Associated with this decadal change, the southward displacement of the polar front jet stream and northward shift of the subtropical jet stream in the upper troposphere are apparent. Accordingly, a negative height anomaly dominates the region from Lake Balkhash to Lake Baikal and a positive height anomaly occupies the midlatitudes of the North Pacific in the middle troposphere. Such anomalous patterns in the middle and high troposphere correspond approximately to the northern mode of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and may favor the interaction of cold air with moist airflows over northern China, which helps increase local heavy snowfall. Further investigation shows that the shift in the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) from a cold phase to a warm phase in the 1990s may also play a role, through its linkage to the above atmospheric circulations with the aid of a downstream propagation of wave train that emanates from the Atlantic Ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, are investigated using hourly data across continental China during the warm season (May–October) from 1980 to 2015. Physically, the probability of precipitation accumulations drops slowly with event size up to an approximately exponential cutoff scale sL where probability drops much faster. Hence sL can be used as an indicator of high accumulation percentiles (i.e., extreme precipitation accumulations). Overall, the climatology of sL over continental China is about 54 mm. In terms of cutoff changes, the current warming stage (1980–2015) is divided into two periods, 1980–97 and 1998–2015. We find that the cutoff in 1998–2015 increases about 5.6% compared with that of 1980–97, with an average station increase of 4.7%. Regionally, sL increases are observed over East China (10.9% ± 1.5%), Northwest China (9.7% ± 2.5%), South China (9.4% ± 1.4%), southern Southwest China (5.6% ± 1.2%), and Central China (5.3% ± 1.0%), with decreases over North China (−10.3% ± 1.3%), Northeast China (−4.9% ± 1.5%), and northern Southwest China (−3.9% ± 1.8%). The conditional risk ratios for five subregions with increased cutoff sL are all greater than 1.0, indicating an increased risk of large precipitation accumulations in the most recent period. For high precipitation accumulations larger than the 99th percentile of accumulation s99, the risk of extreme precipitation over these regions can increase above 20% except for South China. These increases of extreme accumulations can be largely explained by the extended duration of extreme accumulation events, especially for "extremely extreme" precipitation greater than s99. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evaluation of gridded high-resolution precipitation products (HRPPs) is important in areas with complex topography, because rain gauges that are unevenly and sparsely distributed over an area cannot effectively reflect the spatial variabilities of the precipitation and related extremes in detail. In this study, the applicability of six satellite-based precipitation products (TMPA 3B42V7, IMERG, GSMaP-Gauge, CMORPH-CRT, PERSIANN-CDR, and GPCP) and five gauge-based precipitation products (APHRODITE, CN05.1, GPCC-D, GPCC-M, and CRU) over southwest China from 1998 to 2016 is evaluated by performing a comparison with meteorological station observations. The results show that GPCC-M exhibits the best performances for annual, seasonal, and monthly precipitation, which is supported by the lowest root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) for annual and seasonal precipitation and the lowest normalized root-mean-square error (NRMSE) for monthly precipitation. According to the NRMSE and critical success index (CSI), CN05.1 outperforms the other HRPPs at detecting daily precipitation; however, CN05.1 tends to overestimate the frequencies of light precipitation and underestimate the frequencies of heavy precipitation, which is reflected by the probability density function (PDF) for daily precipitation. The bias ratio (BIAS) and extreme precipitation indices show that IMERG shows numerous advantages over the other HRPPs in detecting extreme precipitation and estimating the precipitation intensity. Such results are helpful for future research on precipitation/extremes and related hydrometeorological disasters that occur throughout southwest China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In China, summer precipitation contributes a major part of the total precipitation amount in a year and has major impacts on society and human life. Whether any changes in summer precipitation are affected by external forcing on the climate system is an important issue. In this study, an optimal fingerprinting method was used to compare the observed changes of total, heavy, moderate, and light precipitation in summer derived from newly homogenized observation data with the simulations from multiple climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The results demonstrate that the anthropogenic forcing signal can be detected and separated from the natural forcing signal in the observed increase of seasonal accumulated precipitation amount for heavy precipitation in summer in China and eastern China (EC). The simulated changes in heavy precipitation are generally consistent with observed change in China but are underestimated in EC. When the changes in precipitation of different intensities are considered simultaneously, the human influence on simultaneous changes in moderate and light precipitation can be detected in China and EC in summer. Changes attributable to anthropogenic forcing explain most of the observed regional changes for all categories of summer precipitation, and natural forcing contributes little. In the future, with increasing anthropogenic influence, the attribution-constrained projection suggests that heavy precipitation in summer will increase more than that from the model raw outputs. Society may therefore face a higher risk of heavy precipitation in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is argued here that even with the development of objective algorithms, convection-allowing numerical models, and artificial intelligence/machine learning, conceptual models will still be useful for forecasters until all these methods can fully satisfy the forecast requirements in the future. Conceptual models can help forecasters form forecast ideas quickly. They also can make up for the deficiencies of the numerical model and other objective methods. Furthermore, they can help forecasters understand the weather, and then help the forecasters lock in on the key features affecting the forecast as soon as possible. Ultimately, conceptual models can help the forecaster serve the end users faster, and better understand the forecast results during the service process. Based on the above considerations, construction of new conceptual models should have the following characteristics: 1) be guided by purpose, 2) focus on improving the ability of forecasters, 3) have multiangle consideration, 4) have multiscale fusion, and 5) need to be tested and corrected continuously. The traditional conceptual models used for forecasts of severe convective weather should be replaced gradually by new models that incorporate these principles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores how the termination of the mei-yu is dynamically linked to the westerlies impinging on the Tibetan Plateau. It is found that the mei-yu stage terminates when the maximum upper-tropospheric westerlies shift beyond the northern edge of the plateau, around 40°N. This termination is accompanied by the disappearance of tropospheric northerlies over northeastern China. The link between the transit of the jet axis across the northern edge of the plateau, the disappearance of northerlies, and termination of the mei-yu holds on a range of time scales from interannual through seasonal and pentad. Diagnostic analysis indicates that the weakening of the meridional moisture contrast and meridional wind convergence, mainly resulting from the disappearance of northerlies, causes the demise of the mei-yu front. The authors propose that the westerlies migrating north of the plateau and consequent weakening of the extratropical northerlies triggers the mei-yu termination. Model simulations are employed to test the causality between the jet and the orographic downstream northerlies by repositioning the northern edge of the plateau. As the plateau edge extends northward, orographic forcing on the westerlies strengthens, leading to persistent strong downstream northerlies and a prolonged mei-yu. Idealized simulations with a dry dynamical core further demonstrate the dynamical link between the weakening of orographically forced downstream northerlies with the positioning of the jet from south to north of the plateau. Changes in the magnitude of orographically forced stationary waves are proposed to explain why the downstream northerlies disappear when the jet axis migrates beyond the northern edge of the plateau. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A linear regression model is constructed to predict the April–May precipitation in central China (PCC) with a lead time of 1–2 months. This model not only reproduces the historical April–May PCC from 1985 to 2006 but also demonstrates strong robustness and reliability during the independent test period of 2007–16. Two preceding factors are selected to build the model, the February–March Arctic stratospheric ozone (ASO) and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (IOSST), indicating a synergistic impact of Arctic and tropical signals on the midlatitude climate. A possible mechanism of ASO changes affecting Chinese precipitation is that the stratospheric circulation anomalies related to ASO changes may downward influence circulation over North Pacific, and then extend westward to influence East Asia, leading to changes in Chinese precipitation. Anomalies of the other predictor, IOSST, are associated with a baroclinic structure over central China. For example, warm IOSST causes anomalous convection over central China and affects the warm and humid airstream flowing from the Pacific to China. These processes related to the two predictors result in the April–May PCC anomalies. Sensitivity experiments and a transient experiment covering a longer period than the observations/reanalysis support the results from our statistical analysis based on observations. It implies that this statistical model could be applied to the output of seasonal forecasts from observations and improve the forecasting ability of April–May PCC in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowledge of the quantitative importance of moisture transport pathways of the Sanjiangyuan region (known as the "water tower" of China) can provide insights into the regional atmospheric branch of the hydrological cycle over the Sanjiangyuan region. A combined method with a clustering algorithm [Hierarchical Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (HDBSCAN)] and a Lagrangian moisture source diagnostic is developed to identify the major moisture transport pathways and quantify their importance to three types of consecutive precipitation events—extreme precipitation (EP) events, moderate precipitation (MP) events, and extreme aridity (EA) events—for the Sanjiangyuan region during the rainy season (June–September 1960–2017). The results indicate that moisture paths from the northwest covering northwest China and central Asia (the N.W. pathway) and moisture paths from southern and southeastern China (the S.S. pathway) are stable moisture transport pathways during EP and MP events [importance (precipitation contribution in percentage): N.W. pathway, 18.4% (EP), 32.2% (MP); S.S. pathway, 25.9% (EP), 28.5% (MP)]. Affected by the western edge of a significant anticyclone anomaly centered around 35°N, 115°E, the moisture paths via the Bay of Bengal (the B.B. pathway) can reach the target region and become a supplementary moisture contributor (14.9%) to EP events. Moisture paths via the Arabian Sea and Indian peninsula (the A.I. pathway) are also active but the contributions are limited [4.9% (EP) and 5.6% (MP)]. For EA events, the fast-moving trajectories from farther western Asia (the F.W. pathway) play a dominant role and all major moisture pathways (F.W., N.W., and S.S. pathways) carry limited moisture to the target region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evaluation of Chinese precipitation extremes is conducted based on large ensemble projections of the present climate and 4-K-warmer climates derived from a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model. The model reproduced the overall trend and magnitude of total precipitation and extreme precipitation events for China reasonably well, revealing that this dataset can represent localized precipitation extremes. Precipitation extremes are more frequent and more severe in future projections under 4-K-warmer climates than in the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Our results show that using a large-ensemble simulation can improve the ability to estimate with high precision both the precipitation mean and the precipitation extremes compared with small numbers of simulations, and the averaged maximum yearly precipitation will be likely to increase by approximately 18% under a +4-K future in southern China compared with the past. Finally, uncertainty evaluation in future precipitation projections indicates that the component caused by the difference in six ΔSST patterns is more important in southern China compared with the component due to the atmospheric internal variability. All these results could provide valuable insights in simulating and predicting precipitation extremes in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) is regarded as the key circulation system that dominates the summer heat waves over eastern China, but whether the WPSH–summer heat wave connection changes with time remains unknown. In this study, decadal variations in the WPSH–heat wave connection were examined for the period 1959–2016 using daily maximum temperature data from 654 observational stations across China and global reanalysis datasets. The results show that the correlation coefficient between the WPSH intensity (WPSHI) and the number of heat-wave days (NHD) was 0.65 (>99% confidence level) during positive phases of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), whereas that during negative phases of the PDO was only 0.12 (<80% confidence level). The remarkable difference in correlations is due to the more westward extension of a stronger WPSH in El Niño decaying summers during the positive phases of PDO. The stronger Indian Ocean warming in El Niño decaying-year summers for PDO positive phases in comparison to PDO negative phases is associated with enhanced convection and heating, which further drive a stronger anticyclone over the northwestern Pacific, leading to a stronger and more westward-extending WPSH, which is favorable for more heat waves over eastern China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The characteristics and mechanisms of diurnal rainfall and winds near the south coast of China are explored using satellite data (CMORPH), long-term hourly WRF Model data (Du model data), a simple 2D linear model, and 2D idealized simulations. Both the CMORPH and Du model data indicate that the diurnal cycle of rainfall has two propagation modes near the coast: onshore and offshore. The diurnally periodic winds (vertical motions) also show a similar propagation feature. Analysis of the rainfall budget indicates that vertically integrated vertical vapor advection plays a key role in the diurnal cycle of rainfall and thus provides a physical connection between winds and rainfall in the diurnal cycle. It was found that a simple 2D linear land–sea breeze model with a background wind can well capture the two propagation modes, which are associated with inertia–gravity waves, in terms of speed and phase. The background wind changes the pattern of the inertia–gravity waves and further affects the diurnal propagation. The effect of the background wind on the diurnal propagation was verified through idealized simulations using a simplified version of the WRF Model that can also capture the diurnal features. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A northwest-southeast-oriented summer monsoon trough exists between northern Indochina and northwestern Borneo. Ahead of this the South China Sea (SCS) trough is located at a convergent center west of the Philippines, which provides an environment favorable for rain-producing synoptic systems to produce rainfall over this center and form the SCS summer rainfall center. Revealed from the x- t diagram for rainfall, this rainfall center is developed by multiple-scale processes involved with the SCS trough (TR), tropical depression (TY), interaction of the SCS trough with the easterly wave/tropical depression (EI), and easterly wave (EW). It is found that 56% of this rainfall center is produced by the SCS trough, while 41% is generated by the other three synoptic systems combined. Apparently, the formation of the SCS summer monsoon rainfall center is contributed to by these four rain-producing synoptic systems from the SCS and the Philippines Sea. The Southeast Asian summer monsoon undergoes an interannual variation and exhibits an east-west-oriented cyclonic (anticyclonic) anomalous circulation centered at the western tropical Pacific east of the Luzon Strait. This circulation change is reflected by the deepening (filling) of the SCS summer monsoon trough, when the monsoon westerlies south of 15°N intensify (weaken). This interannual variation of the monsoon westerlies leads to the interannual variation of the SCS summer monsoon rainfall center to follow the Pacific-Japan oscillation of rainfall. The rainfall amount produced over this rainfall center during the weak monsoon season is about two-thirds of that produced during the strong monsoon season. The rain-production ratio between TR and TY + EI + EW is 60:38 during the strong monsoon season and 47:49 during the weak monsoon season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The trend in the atmospheric heat source over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) during the last four decades is evaluated using historical observations at 74 meteorological stations in the period of 1961–2003 and satellite radiation data from 1983 to 2004. It is shown that in contrast to the strong surface and troposphere warming, the sensible heat (SH) flux over the TP exhibits a significant decreasing trend since the mid-1980s. The largest trend occurs in spring, a season of the highest SH over the TP. The subdued surface wind speed contributes most to the decreasing trend. At the same time, the radiative cooling effect in the air column enhances persistently. Despite the fact that the in situ latent heating presents a weak increasing trend, the springtime atmospheric heat source over the TP loses its strength during two recent decades. Further investigation suggests that the weakened SH over the TP may be part of the global circulation shift. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]