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The detection and attribution of climate change in the observed record play a central role in synthesizing knowledge of the climate system. Unfortunately, the traditional method for detecting and attributing changes due to multiple forcings requires large numbers of general circulation model (GCM) simulations incorporating different initial conditions and forcing scenarios, and these have only been performed with a small number of GCMs. This paper presents an extension to the fingerprinting technique that permits the inclusion of GCMs in the multisignal analysis of surface temperature even when the required families of ensembles have not been generated. This is achieved by fitting a series of energy balance models (EBMs) to the GCM output in order to estimate the temporal response patterns to the various forcings. This methodology is applied to the very large Challenge ensemble of 62 simulations of historical climate conducted with the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 1.4 (CCSM1.4) GCM, as well as some simulations from other GCMs. Considerable uncertainty exists in the estimates of the parameters in fitted EBMs. Nevertheless, temporal response patterns from these EBMs are more reliable and the combined EBM time series closely mimics the GCM in the context of transient forcing. In particular, detection and attribution results from this technique appear self-consistent and consistent with results from other methods provided that all major forcings are included in the analysis. Using this technique on the Challenge ensemble, the estimated responses to changes in greenhouse gases, tropospheric sulfate aerosols, and stratospheric volcanic aerosols are all detected in the observed record, and the responses to the greenhouse gases and tropospheric sulfate aerosols are both consistent with the observed record without a scaling of the amplitude being required. The result is that the temperature difference of the 1996–2005 decade relative to the 1940–49 decade can be attributed to greenhouse gas emissions, with a partially offsetting cooling from sulfate emissions and little contribution from natural sources. The results support the viability of the new methodology as an extension to current analysis tools for the detection and attribution of climate change, which will allow the inclusion of many more GCMs. Shortcomings remain, however, and so it should not be considered a replacement to traditional techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article discusses climate change and hurricanes. Papers that appeared in the scholarly journals "Nature" and "Science" during the summer of 2005 raised the question of global warming being the cause of the record-breaking hurricane season of 2005. The article examines that argument, noting that many scientists believe that human-induced climate warming is indeed real. Also discussed is the increasing intensity of hurricanes since 1975, as well as the rise in seas surface temperatures and greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

The role of atmospheric circulations, yielding extremely cold summer and wet winter seasons, in the development of perennial snow cover over the inception region of the Laurentide Ice Sheet is investigated using the Community Land Model, version 3 (CLM3) with bias-corrected 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) idealized atmospheric forcing. Potential contribution of changes in frequency of these extremes under contemporary and Eemian (116 kyr BP) conditions is also examined by adjusting the atmospheric forcing. The results confirm that colder atmospheric temperatures during the melt season are more important than extreme amounts of winter snowfall. Increases in frequency of extremely cold and persistent summer air temperatures in the contemporary climate do not produce perennial snow. An additional cooling of 4°C together with adjustments for Eemian incident radiation is required for perennial snow to start growing around Hudson Bay. Deeper snow is found over the Labrador–Ungava area, close to the North Atlantic Ocean moisture sources, compared to the Keewatin area. These areas are in agreement with the locations of the Laurentide Ice Sheet domes found from free gravity analysis. Starting from the warm present-day atmosphere a 25% decrease in summer insolation is required for CLM3 to develop perennial snow. This suggests that cooling resulting from modest decreases in local insolation in response to Milankovitch radiation forcing was insufficient for inception at 116 kyr BP. Remote cooling or local feedbacks that amplify the impact of the modest insolation reductions are required. A large-scale atmospheric cooling appears to have played a decisive role in inception. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study the direct and diffuse solar radiation changes are estimated, and they contribute to the understanding of the observed global dimming and the more recent global brightening during the industrial era. Using a multistream radiative transfer model, the authors calculate the impact of changes in ozone, NO2, water vapor, CH4, CO2, direct and indirect aerosol effects, contrails, and aviation-induced cirrus on solar irradiances at the surface. The results show that dimming is most pronounced in central Africa, Southeast Asia, Europe, and northeast America. Human activity during the industrial era is calculated and accounts for a decrease in direct solar radiation at the surface of up to 30 W m-2 (30%–40%) and an increase in diffuse solar radiation of up to 20 W m-2. The physical processes that lead to the changes in direct and diffuse solar radiation are found to be remarkably different and the authors explain which mechanisms are responsible for the observed changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate models used to produce global warming scenarios exhibit widely diverging responses of the thermohaline circulation (THC). To investigate the mechanisms responsible for this variability, a regional Atlantic Ocean model driven with forcing diagnosed from two coupled greenhouse gas simulations has been employed. One of the coupled models (MPI) shows an almost constant THC, the other (GFDL) shows a declining THC in the twenty-first century. The THC evolution in the regional model corresponds rather closely to that of the respective coupled simulation, that is, it remains constant when driven with the forcing from the MPI model, and declines when driven with the GFDL forcing. These findings indicate that a detailed representation of ocean processes in the region covered by the Atlantic model may not be critical for the simulation of the overall THC changes in a global warming scenario, and specifically that the coupled model’s rather coarse representation of water mass formation processes in the subpolar North Atlantic is unlikely to be the primary cause for the large differences in the THC evolution. Sensitivity experiments have confirmed that a main parameter governing the THC response to global warming is the density of the intermediate waters in the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian Seas, which in turn influences the density of the North Atlantic Deep Water, whereas changes in the air–sea heat and freshwater fluxes over the subpolar North Atlantic are only of moderate importance, and mainly influence the interannual–decadal variability of THC. Finally, as a consequence of changing surface fluxes, the Labrador Sea convection ceases by about 2030 under both forcings (i.e., even in a situation where the overall THC is stable) indicating that the eventual breakdown of the convection is likely but need not coincide with substantial THC changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]